Probably the most important thing to think about when trading (who’s playing the space and at what times?). very good knowledge to have. I’ve said this in past posts many times buy I HIGHLY suggest everyone read this book: Mind over Markets (by James F. Dalton).
Not a holy grail or system trading, just a methodical approach to understanding the players in the market and when they’re in it. Even if you don’t use the CBOE Market Profile, you’ll learn a lot about who’s in the market when with this book.
As a useful add-on to the book, member Alfred Toy adds:
Dr. Brett Steenbarger (psychiatrist) who wrote "The Psychology of Trading" (which is a book club selection)list’s just 3 (although I can think of a few more) "negative behavioral patterns" that get in the way off good trading. I very much agree with his statement:
"Remember, observing and interrupting your patterns are the first steps in altering them! Your patterns lose control over you as you become better at not identifying with them. When you become an observer to your patterns, you are separating yourself from them. What great progress that is!"
Perfectionism: Perfectionism is often the chief culprit when the pain of losing exceeds the pleasure of winning. Even when there’s a profit on a trade, perfectionists will look for the portion of the move that they did not participate in. If they caught most the move, they will reprove themselves for not trading a larger position. By focusing on the portion of their performance that doesn’t match their ideals, perfectionists transform successes into defeats, losses into failures.
“Beating myself up” is how many perfectionists describe their self-talk. The way to beat perfectionism is to make a concerted effort to talk to yourself the way you would talk to a good friend in a situation where things went wrong.
Ego: When traders invest their feelings about themselves in their trading, they are operating with maximum emotional leverage. It inevitably affects decisions about cutting losses, letting profits run, and entering and exiting in a timely fashion. The successful trader wants their trades to work out; the ego-involved trader needs them to be profitable.
If trading has us truly depressed, we know that it’s not just our trading account that’s hurting. Market success can be the frosting on the cake of your successful life, rarely can it substitute to the cake itself.
Overconfidence: Because they’re so eager to make money – and so sure they can make it – overconfident traders generally trade impulsively. They won’t wait for the setup to form; they’ll jump the gun – and get whipsawed in the process. Instead of being patient and waiting for short-term patterns to align with longer-term patterns, they will take every trade, enriching their brokers in the process.
Overconfident traders overtrade. They fear missing opportunities more than they fear…
By Attain Alternative Blog. Originally published at ValueWalk.
If you had a dollar for every article about how horrible commodities have been performing, well.. you'd be rich (or have about as much as if you had shorted said commodity markets). The past few weeks have seen Gold drop below 2010 prices, WTI Crude drop back below $50, and Sugar hit fresh 4 year lows. The result? The long only commodity indices taking it on the proverbial chin…
Here are just a couple headlines and charts associated with the articles:
Are We Nearing Peak Commodity Hatred?
(Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Chart Courtesy: Pragmatic Capitalism
In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.
Corporate earnings reports have been mixed at best, interspersed with the occasional spectacular report -- primarily from mega-caps like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), or Amazon (AMZN). Some of the bul...
“I am sure the euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created.”
– Romano Prodi, EU Commission president, December 2001
Prodi and the other leaders who forged the euro knew what they were doing. They knew a crisis would develop, as Milton Friedman and many others had predicted. It is not conceivable that these very astute men didn’t realize that creating a monetary union without a fiscal union would bring about an existential crisis. They accepted that eventuality as the price of European unity. But now the payment is coming due, and it is far large...
Sellers in the S&P made it five days of downside in a row. On this last day it closed near the day's lows, but also on its 200-day MA. If there was reason for a bounce, then tomorrow could be the day. Technicals are all net negative.
The Dow took the selling harder. It undercut the July swing low having earlier lost its 200-day MA. Next up is the February swing low.
Small Caps finished at its 200-day MA, after it lost trendline support on Friday...
A reader recently asked the question of why we so often don't trade our plans after we've gone to the trouble of planning our trades. The usual answer to this question is that emotion gets in the way, which naturally leads to strategies for yet more planning, "discipline", and the dampening of emotion. As an interesting article on motor sport makes clear, however, it may well be that we lose our plans when we lose our concentration. Instead of working to control emotions, it makes sense to cultivate ex...
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This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
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Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).
Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself.
Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene
The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below.
Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets)
Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies)
Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at firstname.lastname@example.org with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
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