Archive for the ‘Virtual Portfolio Review’ Category

Philstockworld September Portfolio Review – Still Too Bullish?

$1,572,429!

That's up from our $600,000 start on our paired portfolios in just under 3 years (November anniversary) and, more importantly, up $52,975 (8.8%) since our July 4th review – not bad for 2 months where we were mostly playing defense!  

We were wrong (so far) to heavily hedge our Short-Term Portfolio, which lost $22,581 as our hedges tended to expire worthless but having those hedges in place allowed us not to touch our Long-Term Portfolio positions, which gained $73,902 almost without touching our bullish positions all summer.  That's right, if you had just read our review on July 4th and copied our Long-Term Portfolio positions, which only had a net market value of $123,955 at the time (we are 80% in cash), they are now net $186,397 (as of Friday's close) - up $62,442 (50%) against the cash requirement (and the LTP is currently using $339,750 in margin so the return on margin was 18% on margin in 2 months).

The reason some of the numbers are different is we did the individual reviews during the week and Friday's close was a little different but not very.  Also, it's very important to note that the LTP is, by nature, 100% bullish while it is the responsibility of the STP to carry our protective hedges so the STP is SUPPOSED to lose money when the LTP is making money – that is it's very sad fate.  Also, I will repeat our note from last time as it is still, obviously, very relevant:

To you day traders out there – I implore you  - please read the July, April and December reviews and look over those positions and check out those same positions 3 months later and CONSIDER – please consider – that day-trading may not be the best way to play the market.  Yes, the LTP goes up and down too but, when it's down, we have cash on the side to buy bigger positions (which is what we did last year) while they are cheap.  Since those positions are INVESTMENTS, we end up with something of great value when the market comes back.


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Philstockworld Top Trade Review

The hits just keep on coming.  

When we left off in June, our Top Trades had 70 winners out of 91 trade ideas but 5 of those trade ideas were for Lumber Liquidators (yes, I liked them that much) and they are all winners now so our winning percentage has jumped to 75 of 91 (82%) – not bad!  Of course, a few of the other losers have turned around too but LL was one I simply pounded the table on (which is why I picked them 5 times) so I will move those to the win column.  For the rest – wherever we are when we do our review (usually 2 or 3 months later) is where we mark it.  

Our June review took us to the end of April, for example, where we had 16 winners and only two losers but one of those losers was a Chevron (CVX) short, who subsequently took a nice dive and the other was SuperValue, which was a 2018 $3/5 bull call spread with short $5 puts and we bought 20 for $880 on March 3rd and, as of our June 5th review, they were $670, down $210 for our other loss of the period. 

Now SVU is back at $5.36 and the spread is $1.25 and the short puts are $1 so net $25 x 20 contracts is $500 – still a loser (worse, actually) but what a great trade as all SVU has to do is hold $5 through Jan 2018 and the trade returns $4,000 – that would be a $3,500 gain from here (700%), so still great as a new trade!  

That's why it pays to read our Portfolio Review section over at Philstockworld – many hidden gems there – especially in our "losing" trades – rare though they may be!  That's because we're FUNDAMENTAL investors and, while the charts may go against us for some period of time, if we get the fundamentals right we know that, at some point, the market usually catches on to what we're seeing.  

Top Trades is a fairly new section at PSW, we began it last August so this is our one-year anniversary and we've put out over 100 Alerts, so averaging better than 2
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Philstockworld July Portfolio Review – Are We Too Bullish?

$1,519,454 – that's up 153% from our $600,000 start on our paired portfolios and, more importantly, up $69,064 since our April 24th review (11.5% in 5 weeks).  

Our Long-Term Portfolio alone has climbed over the Million Dollar mark, up 100% from our $500,000 buy-in back in November, 2013.  At this point, we're so far ahead of our target (20% per year) that we'll probably start a new portfolio in the fall.  We already purged plenty of short puts from our LTP and we're certainly well-positioned to add new trades as we have plenty of cash on the side!

Meanwhile,  the S&P was at 2,080 on April 24th and it's at 2,102 today so fairly flat after dipping to 1,991 and it's important to note that our hedges did exactly what they are supposed do do – they allowed us to ride out the dip without panicking and, because we are Being the House – NOT the Gambler, we continue to collect our sold premiums – even when the market is essentially flat.  As I said in the last review:

To you day traders out there – I implore you  - please read the December review and look over those positions and check out those same positions 3 months later and CONSIDER – please consider – that day-trading may not be the best way to play the market.  Yes, the LTP goes up and down too but, when it's down, we have cash on the side to buy bigger positions (which is what we did last year) while they are cheap.  Since those positions are INVESTMENTS, we end up with something of great value when the market comes back.

As you can see from the S&P chart, markets are volatile things and, if you want to be a long-term investor, you need to plan on that volatility – not be surprised by it!  I could say the same thing about the S&P since last June as I'm saying about it since April 24th – the market has gone nowhere but has had extreme dips and the best way to play it is to BE THE HOUSE and let other people take the risks for us.

Our Options
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Philstockworld Top Trade Review – Part 2

Yet another fantastic two months for our Top Trade Ideas!  Not only did we start the year with 15 of 16 winners (see April's Review), but our only losing trade idea at the time was UNG, which just turned around last week – making us PERFECT for 2016 in our first 16 picks.  

Of course, it's been like shooting fish in a barrel since the February dip on the bull side but the really cool thing is we also called the drop on Jan 8th with SDS and SQQQ hedges that paid off huge as we bottomed out the next month.  We only started doing Top Trades last August and what we do is simply select one or two trades a week from our Live Member Chat Room at Philstockworld that we feel have a very high probability of success.  That then sends out Text and EMail Alerts to our Members, so it's perfect for people who don't have time to be on-line during the day.  All PSW Basic and Premium Members have Top Trade Access (just make sure your smart phone number is in the box here). 

We don't have a portfolio for our Top Trades as it would be redundant to our 4 Member Tracking Portfolios but many Top Trade Ideas are from trades we do officially add to our portfolios.  That's why we do these reviews once in a while – to check in and see if our logic is on or off track.  You can't make good future decisions without learning from your past ones – something we emphasize at PSW!  

54 of our first 73 (74%) Top Trade ideas were winners and 4 of our 11 losers were Lumber Liquidators (LL) trade ideas – still one of our favorite value plays!  Getting 3 out of 4 trades right is plenty to move the investing ball towards the goal line.  

Combine that with sensible portfolio management techniques (diversification, managing losses, hedging) and you'll beat the S&P by a mile with no sweat.  Generally, with our Top Trades, we're simply picking stocks we feel are underpriced and we're using our various options techniques to give ourselves even better discounts and hedged entries but these are patience plays that can take time to get going, usually our Top Trade Ideas have…
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Option Opportunity Portfolio May Review – Up 19.3% In 30 Days!

What a great month it's been!  

Like the Fed, we've made very few adjustments to our portfolio but the ones we have made have been very effective and, more importantly, we added a lot of hedges that locked in our gains at very near our highest levels (45%) and we were relatively unaffected by this week's weak action.  We started the portfolio on August 8th as an experiment with the people at Seeking Alpha to see if we could create a fully documented portfolio that makes a steady 5% monthly return.  We failed to do that.  

Though we are up just about 45% in our 9th month, the returns have been far from steady.  As it turns out, our Butterfly Portfolio (one of the 4 virtual portfolios we use over at PSW) is still the champ and, to that end, we are incorporating more of those long, boring plays into the OOP from now on – as the goal was to have a low-risk $100,000 portfolio.  The mistake we made was trying to make 5% in our first month, which we did but we were over-exposed when the market dove – bad timing as our first month coincided with a huge market drop that lasted through September.

Nonetheless, we got back on our horse and followed our "Be the House – NOT the Gambler" strategy and made a lot of smart bets and got ourselves back on track.  Actually, this is a good time for a strategy note.  Over at Philstockworld, we have an Education and Strategy section where we discuss our methods of scaling in and out of positions (something I also teach in our Live Trading Webinars) and it would be very educational for you to review our Options Opportunity Portfolio – 2016 Preview, which details each of our positions at the time and how much money we expected to make from each one.  Although the BALANCE of the portfolio was just $101,571 at the time, the key quote was this:

Notice first that we have $98,672 worth of cash on hand.  We started


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PhilStockWorld April Portfolio Review (Members Only)

$1,450,390 – that's up 141% at the end of the first quarter of year three.

More importantly, our paired and balanced Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios are up 45% since our December review and, essentially, they are the same positions – especially in the LTP, which has gained $318,747 (49%) in the 4 months since 12/13 – and those are the positions we don't touch at all and, more importantly, those are the positions which make up the bulk of our portfolio allocations – as they are meant to be INVESTMENTS – not trades!  

To you day traders out there – I implore you  - please read the December review and look over those positions and check out those same positions 3 months later and CONSIDER – please consider – that day-trading may not be the best way to play the market.  Yes, the LTP goes up and down too but, when it's down, we have cash on the side to buy bigger positions (which is what we did last year) while they are cheap.  Since those positions are INVESTMENTS, we end up with something of great value when the market comes back.

SPX WEEKLY

With day trading – even the best day traders spend 1/3 of their time trying to win back what they've lost and the stress level of day trading is through the roof compared to our very simple, long-term, Be the House – NOT the Gambler strategy.  Even our ultra-conservative, ultra low-touch Butterfly Portfolio popped from $181,075 to $263,052, a gain of $81,977 (82%) in 4 short months.  Admittedly, we went off book and got aggressive in the Jan dip, as we expected another round of drastic Central Bank action to save the market – and it did.  

I'll tell you now that, on the next breakdown, I will be nowhere near as confident flipping bullish.  I think the CBs are almost out of ammo and already their moves smack of desperation so I'm now leaning towards a lot of hedging (we did a lot of that earlier this month) or just getting the Hell out with our massive gains and starting again in the Fall (or whenever we get another nice dip).  I don't mind going to CASH!!!, having a fantastic, relaxing summer and then coming…
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Philstockworld Top Trade Review – Q1 2016

Yet another fantastic quarter for our Top Trade Ideas!  

Of course, it's been like shooting fish in a barrel since the February dip on the bull side but the really cool thing is we also called the drop on Jan 8th with SDS and SQQQ hedges that paid off huge as we bottomed out the next month.  We only started doing Top Trades last August and what we do is simply select one or two trades a week from our Live Member Chat Room at Philstockworld that we feel have a very high probability of success.  That then sends out Text and EMail Alerts to our Members, so it's perfect for people who don't have time to be on-line during the day.  All PSW Basic and Premium Members have Top Trade Access (just make sure your smart phone number is in the box here). 

We don't have a portfolio for our Top Trades as it would be redundant to our 4 Member Tracking Portfolios but many Top Trade Ideas are from trades we do officially add to our portfolios.  That's why we do these reviews once in a while – to check in and see if our logic is on or off track.  You can't make good future decisions without learning from your past ones – something we emphasize at PSW!  

38 of our first 57 (66%) Top Trade ideas were winners and 4 of our 15 losers were Lumber Liquidators (LL) trade ideas – all of which are now coming back as LL pops back towards $20!  Getting two out of three trades right is plenty to move the investing ball towards the goal line.  

Combine that with sensible portfolio management techniques (diversification, managing losses, hedging) and you'll beat the S&P by a mile with no sweat.  Generally, with our Top Trades, we're simply picking stocks we feel are underpriced and we're using our various options techniques to give ourselves even better discounts and hedged entries but these are patience plays that can take time to get going, usually our Top Trade Ideas have long-term objectives.  

Without further ado, here's the next month of trades for review – some are still good for new entries:

Our first Top Trade Alert of the…
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PhilStockWorld March Portfolio Review (Members Only)

$1,347,359 – that's up 124% in just over 2 years!

More importantly, our paired and balanced Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios are up 34% since our December review and, essentially, they are the same positions – especially in the LTP, which has gained $210,056 (35%) in the 3 months since 12/13 – and those are the positions we don't touch at all and, more importantly, those are the positions which make up the bulk of our portfolio allocations – as they are meant to be INVESTMENTS – not trades!  

To you day traders out there – I implore you  - please read the December review and look over those positions and check out those same positions 3 months later and CONSIDER – please consider – that day-trading may not be the best way to play the market.  Yes, the LTP goes up and down too but, when it's down, we have cash on the side to buy bigger positions (which is what we did last year) while they are cheap.  Since those positions are INVESTMENTS, we end up with something of great value when the market comes back.

SPX DAILY

With day trading – even the best day traders spend 1/3 of their time trying to win back what they've lost and the stress level of day trading is through the roof compared to our very simple, long-term, Be the House – NOT the Gambler strategy.  Even our ultra-conservative, ultra low-touch Butterfly Portfolio popped from $181,075 to $238,800, a gain of $57,725 (57.7%) in 3 short months.  Admittedly, we went off book and got aggressive in the Jan dip, as we expected another round of drastic Central Bank action to save the market – and it did.  

I'll tell you now that, on the next breakdown, I will be nowhere near as confident flipping bullish.  I think the CBs are almost out of ammo and already their moves smack of desperation so I'm now leaning towards a lot of hedging (we did some of that last week) or just getting the Hell out with our massive gains and starting again in the Fall (or whenever we get another nice dip).  I don't mind going to CASH!!!, having a fantastic, relaxing summer and then coming back in the Fall…
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Options Opportunity Portfolio – 2016 Preview

What a crazy year 2015 was!

We began tracking this new virtual portfolio back in August and, in less than 4 months, we closed 80 option positions on 20 stocks (or ETFs) so pretty active in the beginning.  At one point we were up 20% but the net gain on the positions we've closed ended up at just $9,572 or +9.5% from our $100,000 opening balance.  

Since that pace was more hectic than we had intended and the market was very choppy, we moved towards longer-term investments which have the downside of being "expensive" to set up – in that the portfolio will tend to reflect the worst-case scenario for buying or selling options based on the bid/ask spread – no matter how unrealistic the pricing is.  This is, however, something options players need to learn to understand when they are looking at their positions – and we'll discuss that in detail as we examine each of our open positions:

Notice first that we have $98,672 worth of cash on hand.  We started with $100,000 and, using just $1,328 of our original cash, we now control a substantial amount of positions.  On the margin side, we are using $48,700 out of $200,000 of ordinary margin (not Portfolio Margin, which would be much more) and, generally, we don't want to use more than 1/2 of our margin – saving the rest for emergencies.  

At this stage in the process, we're not so much concerned with the BALANCE of the positions as we are to whether or not they are on or off track for their goals.  Options trades can swing wildly in value as premiums fluctuate as well as the price of the underlying security – your job as an options trader is to understand the VALUE of your options so you can identify which ones are misPRICED and learn to take advantage of the differences.  

  • BBY – If BBY is over $31 on Jan 15th, the short puts expire worthless and we make the whole $900.  As it stands, we're about 1/2 up and on track to make $450 more.  

  • Since we liked


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PhilStockWorld December Portfolio Review – Million Dollar Edition!

Still One Million Dollars!  

$1,004,162.60 to be exact and that is UP $2,018 since our last Portfolio Review, back on 11/23 (right before Thanksgiving).  As I said at the time, +66% was our 3-year goal for our primary, paired portfolios (we began with $600,000).  Since we hit that target before the end of year two and into what we thought would be a tumultuous holiday period - locking ourselves into a protective, neutral position seemed prudent – especially as, on the whole, I'd rather be in CASH!!!  

Unfortunately, CASH!!! is not a very popular position and I bowed to the will of our Members and kept the virtual portfolios running, rather than cashing in in August.  Frankly, I don't think I would have done any better from a cash position since August anyway as I've been too gung-ho bullish on Natural Gas (/NG) and too bearish on the FANG stocks – or at least Amazone (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX) – both of which are bearish plays in our STP and LTP that are hurting us.  

So there's certainly something to be said for having a well-diversified and well-hedged portfolio strategy and we do have PLENTY of cash in our portfolios (almost 90%, in fact) but, more importantly, we're using quite a bit of margin now – so we're not as flexible as it seems (using ordinary margin – not portfolio margin, which would have tons of room).  That's because, especially in the LTP, we rely on short put sales to generate a steady supply of cash but, when the whole market goes down at once – the margins can get stretched and we lose some flexibility.  

SPX DAILYWe're prepared to see 1,850 tested on the S&P but much lower than that and we're going to have to start covering some positions.  That money, if needed, would come out of the Short-Term Portfolio (STP) which gained $31,742 in the past few weeks while the Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) lost $32,031 – as it's amost entirely full of bullish positions.  

So, denied the opportunity to go to cash (and circumstances do sometimes prevent this when you are trading), we have opted to balance ourselves to the point of neutrality…
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Phil's Favorites

The Wedge That's Driving Facebook's Stock

Courtesy of Dana Lyons

The stock of Facebook has been in a rising wedge pattern for most of its lifetime – and the pattern is nearing a resolution.

Today’s Chart Of The Day takes a rare detour into single stock territory. As we do not trade individual equities for our clients, it is typically not a focus of ours. But with Facebook (FB) in the news today (along with a dearth of exciting charts) we take a look at a chart pattern relevant to FB throughout most of its history – and in particular, right now.

A “rising wedge” pattern involves a series of higher highs and higher lows on a price chart – with the lows demonstrating a s...



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Zero Hedge

"You're An Idiot & A Lunatic if You Question 'Safe Spaces' Or 'Microaggression'" - President Of Northwestern

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Mark Glennon via WirePoints.com,

Never mind that he’s talking about many who his university educated, including me. Any of you who question campus preoccupation with safe spaces, trigger warnings and microaggressions are idiots and lunatics. That’s what Northwestern University President Morton Schapiro told new students this past week in ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Sep 25, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

It was all about the Federal Reserve as we noted it would be.  In last week’s recap we said:

From this perch there has been and continues to be zero expectation for a September rate hike as the Fed doesn’t want to be seen as “political” and trying to move the market ahead of November, but the Fed is at least trying to throw some bones out there to make the market a bit less complacent.

…and:

All eyes on the Federal Reserve with a meeting Tue/Wed and a press conference by Yellen Wednesday.   Since we expect nothing to happen Wednesday in terms of raising rates maybe the market will be in “relief” mode.  Unless there is strong language from Yellen hinting at a December rate hike....



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ValueWalk

Mark Morey: Social Revolution

By PeakProsperity. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Largely out of the headlines, the ongoing protest on Standing Rock is shining a bright light on how the big-moneyed interests with political clout steamroll the disadvantaged in order to get what they need.

Photo by tomwieden (Pixabay)

But in a rare David-vs-Goliath standoff, the Sioux tribespeople of Standing Rock Reservation are learning that they are not powerless. Their refusal to roll over and allow an oil pipleline to be built on their lands is growing into one of the largest resistance movements in recent years, drawing supporters from all over the country, and forcing the discussion of “Where do we draw t...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Merkel Rules out Assistance for Deutsche Bank, Focus Reports (Bloomberg)

Chancellor Angela Merkel has ruled out any state assistance for Deutsche Bank AG in the year heading into the national election in September 2017, Focus magazine reported, citing unidentified government officials.

A divided town in Connecticut shows that finance is ruining Ame...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil attempting key breakout, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at Crude Oil on a “Monthly Closing” basis, since the early 1980’s.

Crude Oil started tanking in 2014 and its low earlier this year, took place at dual long-term support at (1) below.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Two support lines, that date back over a decade, came into play at (1) and so far have held. Crude remains in a down trend and this down trend is being tested at this time.

Joe ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 19th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Members' Corner

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

 

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

STJL - "Apparently macroeconomics is all bullshit – ROFL! Paging Naybob now… Famous Economist Paul Romer Says Macroeconomics Is All Bullshit."

The Nattering One muses... Macroeconomics as practiced by academics and those in charge is pure voodoo. Better to chant over goat blood, bird feathers and scattered entrails...

As for reality, overnight CNH HIBOR (...



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Mapping The Market

Here's a Cautionary Tale of Pension Privatization From Chile

Via Jean-Luc:

"When you let the free market take over, the little people get screwed and bankers get rich. Chile tried privatizing retirement plans and surprise, surprise, fund manager ate the profits… Pretty sure the results would be the same here..."  ~ Jean-Luc

Here's a Cautionary Tale of Pension Privatization From Chile

By KEVIN DRUM, Mother Jones

Among free-market fans, Chile's privatized pension plan has long been held up as a model for us to follow. The problem, as the Financial Times notes today, is ...



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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.

...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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