Archive for the ‘Virtual Portfolio Review’ Category

Philstockworld Top Trade Review – Part 2

Yet another fantastic two months for our Top Trade Ideas!  Not only did we start the year with 15 of 16 winners (see April's Review), but our only losing trade idea at the time was UNG, which just turned around last week – making us PERFECT for 2016 in our first 16 picks.  

Of course, it's been like shooting fish in a barrel since the February dip on the bull side but the really cool thing is we also called the drop on Jan 8th with SDS and SQQQ hedges that paid off huge as we bottomed out the next month.  We only started doing Top Trades last August and what we do is simply select one or two trades a week from our Live Member Chat Room at Philstockworld that we feel have a very high probability of success.  That then sends out Text and EMail Alerts to our Members, so it's perfect for people who don't have time to be on-line during the day.  All PSW Basic and Premium Members have Top Trade Access (just make sure your smart phone number is in the box here). 

We don't have a portfolio for our Top Trades as it would be redundant to our 4 Member Tracking Portfolios but many Top Trade Ideas are from trades we do officially add to our portfolios.  That's why we do these reviews once in a while – to check in and see if our logic is on or off track.  You can't make good future decisions without learning from your past ones – something we emphasize at PSW!  

54 of our first 73 (74%) Top Trade ideas were winners and 4 of our 11 losers were Lumber Liquidators (LL) trade ideas – still one of our favorite value plays!  Getting 3 out of 4 trades right is plenty to move the investing ball towards the goal line.  

Combine that with sensible portfolio management techniques (diversification, managing losses, hedging) and you'll beat the S&P by a mile with no sweat.  Generally, with our Top Trades, we're simply picking stocks we feel are underpriced and we're using our various options techniques to give ourselves even better discounts and hedged entries but these are patience plays that can take time to get going, usually our Top Trade Ideas have…
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Option Opportunity Portfolio May Review – Up 19.3% In 30 Days!

What a great month it's been!  

Like the Fed, we've made very few adjustments to our portfolio but the ones we have made have been very effective and, more importantly, we added a lot of hedges that locked in our gains at very near our highest levels (45%) and we were relatively unaffected by this week's weak action.  We started the portfolio on August 8th as an experiment with the people at Seeking Alpha to see if we could create a fully documented portfolio that makes a steady 5% monthly return.  We failed to do that.  

Though we are up just about 45% in our 9th month, the returns have been far from steady.  As it turns out, our Butterfly Portfolio (one of the 4 virtual portfolios we use over at PSW) is still the champ and, to that end, we are incorporating more of those long, boring plays into the OOP from now on – as the goal was to have a low-risk $100,000 portfolio.  The mistake we made was trying to make 5% in our first month, which we did but we were over-exposed when the market dove – bad timing as our first month coincided with a huge market drop that lasted through September.

Nonetheless, we got back on our horse and followed our "Be the House – NOT the Gambler" strategy and made a lot of smart bets and got ourselves back on track.  Actually, this is a good time for a strategy note.  Over at Philstockworld, we have an Education and Strategy section where we discuss our methods of scaling in and out of positions (something I also teach in our Live Trading Webinars) and it would be very educational for you to review our Options Opportunity Portfolio – 2016 Preview, which details each of our positions at the time and how much money we expected to make from each one.  Although the BALANCE of the portfolio was just $101,571 at the time, the key quote was this:

Notice first that we have $98,672 worth of cash on hand.  We started


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PhilStockWorld April Portfolio Review (Members Only)

$1,450,390 – that's up 141% at the end of the first quarter of year three.

More importantly, our paired and balanced Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios are up 45% since our December review and, essentially, they are the same positions – especially in the LTP, which has gained $318,747 (49%) in the 4 months since 12/13 – and those are the positions we don't touch at all and, more importantly, those are the positions which make up the bulk of our portfolio allocations – as they are meant to be INVESTMENTS – not trades!  

To you day traders out there – I implore you  - please read the December review and look over those positions and check out those same positions 3 months later and CONSIDER – please consider – that day-trading may not be the best way to play the market.  Yes, the LTP goes up and down too but, when it's down, we have cash on the side to buy bigger positions (which is what we did last year) while they are cheap.  Since those positions are INVESTMENTS, we end up with something of great value when the market comes back.

SPX WEEKLY

With day trading – even the best day traders spend 1/3 of their time trying to win back what they've lost and the stress level of day trading is through the roof compared to our very simple, long-term, Be the House – NOT the Gambler strategy.  Even our ultra-conservative, ultra low-touch Butterfly Portfolio popped from $181,075 to $263,052, a gain of $81,977 (82%) in 4 short months.  Admittedly, we went off book and got aggressive in the Jan dip, as we expected another round of drastic Central Bank action to save the market – and it did.  

I'll tell you now that, on the next breakdown, I will be nowhere near as confident flipping bullish.  I think the CBs are almost out of ammo and already their moves smack of desperation so I'm now leaning towards a lot of hedging (we did a lot of that earlier this month) or just getting the Hell out with our massive gains and starting again in the Fall (or whenever we get another nice dip).  I don't mind going to CASH!!!, having a fantastic, relaxing summer and then coming…
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Philstockworld Top Trade Review – Q1 2016

Yet another fantastic quarter for our Top Trade Ideas!  

Of course, it's been like shooting fish in a barrel since the February dip on the bull side but the really cool thing is we also called the drop on Jan 8th with SDS and SQQQ hedges that paid off huge as we bottomed out the next month.  We only started doing Top Trades last August and what we do is simply select one or two trades a week from our Live Member Chat Room at Philstockworld that we feel have a very high probability of success.  That then sends out Text and EMail Alerts to our Members, so it's perfect for people who don't have time to be on-line during the day.  All PSW Basic and Premium Members have Top Trade Access (just make sure your smart phone number is in the box here). 

We don't have a portfolio for our Top Trades as it would be redundant to our 4 Member Tracking Portfolios but many Top Trade Ideas are from trades we do officially add to our portfolios.  That's why we do these reviews once in a while – to check in and see if our logic is on or off track.  You can't make good future decisions without learning from your past ones – something we emphasize at PSW!  

38 of our first 57 (66%) Top Trade ideas were winners and 4 of our 15 losers were Lumber Liquidators (LL) trade ideas – all of which are now coming back as LL pops back towards $20!  Getting two out of three trades right is plenty to move the investing ball towards the goal line.  

Combine that with sensible portfolio management techniques (diversification, managing losses, hedging) and you'll beat the S&P by a mile with no sweat.  Generally, with our Top Trades, we're simply picking stocks we feel are underpriced and we're using our various options techniques to give ourselves even better discounts and hedged entries but these are patience plays that can take time to get going, usually our Top Trade Ideas have long-term objectives.  

Without further ado, here's the next month of trades for review – some are still good for new entries:

Our first Top Trade Alert of the…
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PhilStockWorld March Portfolio Review (Members Only)

$1,347,359 – that's up 124% in just over 2 years!

More importantly, our paired and balanced Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios are up 34% since our December review and, essentially, they are the same positions – especially in the LTP, which has gained $210,056 (35%) in the 3 months since 12/13 – and those are the positions we don't touch at all and, more importantly, those are the positions which make up the bulk of our portfolio allocations – as they are meant to be INVESTMENTS – not trades!  

To you day traders out there – I implore you  - please read the December review and look over those positions and check out those same positions 3 months later and CONSIDER – please consider – that day-trading may not be the best way to play the market.  Yes, the LTP goes up and down too but, when it's down, we have cash on the side to buy bigger positions (which is what we did last year) while they are cheap.  Since those positions are INVESTMENTS, we end up with something of great value when the market comes back.

SPX DAILY

With day trading – even the best day traders spend 1/3 of their time trying to win back what they've lost and the stress level of day trading is through the roof compared to our very simple, long-term, Be the House – NOT the Gambler strategy.  Even our ultra-conservative, ultra low-touch Butterfly Portfolio popped from $181,075 to $238,800, a gain of $57,725 (57.7%) in 3 short months.  Admittedly, we went off book and got aggressive in the Jan dip, as we expected another round of drastic Central Bank action to save the market – and it did.  

I'll tell you now that, on the next breakdown, I will be nowhere near as confident flipping bullish.  I think the CBs are almost out of ammo and already their moves smack of desperation so I'm now leaning towards a lot of hedging (we did some of that last week) or just getting the Hell out with our massive gains and starting again in the Fall (or whenever we get another nice dip).  I don't mind going to CASH!!!, having a fantastic, relaxing summer and then coming back in the Fall…
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Options Opportunity Portfolio – 2016 Preview

What a crazy year 2015 was!

We began tracking this new virtual portfolio back in August and, in less than 4 months, we closed 80 option positions on 20 stocks (or ETFs) so pretty active in the beginning.  At one point we were up 20% but the net gain on the positions we've closed ended up at just $9,572 or +9.5% from our $100,000 opening balance.  

Since that pace was more hectic than we had intended and the market was very choppy, we moved towards longer-term investments which have the downside of being "expensive" to set up – in that the portfolio will tend to reflect the worst-case scenario for buying or selling options based on the bid/ask spread – no matter how unrealistic the pricing is.  This is, however, something options players need to learn to understand when they are looking at their positions – and we'll discuss that in detail as we examine each of our open positions:

Notice first that we have $98,672 worth of cash on hand.  We started with $100,000 and, using just $1,328 of our original cash, we now control a substantial amount of positions.  On the margin side, we are using $48,700 out of $200,000 of ordinary margin (not Portfolio Margin, which would be much more) and, generally, we don't want to use more than 1/2 of our margin – saving the rest for emergencies.  

At this stage in the process, we're not so much concerned with the BALANCE of the positions as we are to whether or not they are on or off track for their goals.  Options trades can swing wildly in value as premiums fluctuate as well as the price of the underlying security – your job as an options trader is to understand the VALUE of your options so you can identify which ones are misPRICED and learn to take advantage of the differences.  

  • BBY – If BBY is over $31 on Jan 15th, the short puts expire worthless and we make the whole $900.  As it stands, we're about 1/2 up and on track to make $450 more.  

  • Since we liked


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PhilStockWorld December Portfolio Review – Million Dollar Edition!

Still One Million Dollars!  

$1,004,162.60 to be exact and that is UP $2,018 since our last Portfolio Review, back on 11/23 (right before Thanksgiving).  As I said at the time, +66% was our 3-year goal for our primary, paired portfolios (we began with $600,000).  Since we hit that target before the end of year two and into what we thought would be a tumultuous holiday period - locking ourselves into a protective, neutral position seemed prudent – especially as, on the whole, I'd rather be in CASH!!!  

Unfortunately, CASH!!! is not a very popular position and I bowed to the will of our Members and kept the virtual portfolios running, rather than cashing in in August.  Frankly, I don't think I would have done any better from a cash position since August anyway as I've been too gung-ho bullish on Natural Gas (/NG) and too bearish on the FANG stocks – or at least Amazone (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX) – both of which are bearish plays in our STP and LTP that are hurting us.  

So there's certainly something to be said for having a well-diversified and well-hedged portfolio strategy and we do have PLENTY of cash in our portfolios (almost 90%, in fact) but, more importantly, we're using quite a bit of margin now – so we're not as flexible as it seems (using ordinary margin – not portfolio margin, which would have tons of room).  That's because, especially in the LTP, we rely on short put sales to generate a steady supply of cash but, when the whole market goes down at once – the margins can get stretched and we lose some flexibility.  

SPX DAILYWe're prepared to see 1,850 tested on the S&P but much lower than that and we're going to have to start covering some positions.  That money, if needed, would come out of the Short-Term Portfolio (STP) which gained $31,742 in the past few weeks while the Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) lost $32,031 – as it's amost entirely full of bullish positions.  

So, denied the opportunity to go to cash (and circumstances do sometimes prevent this when you are trading), we have opted to balance ourselves to the point of neutrality…
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PhilStockWorld October Portfolio Review – Million Dollar Edition!

One Million Dollars!  

That's up 66% on our main, paired portflios as we approach our 2-year anniversary.  66% is our 3-year goal for the Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolio strategy so of course we decided to lock in our gains after having a rough ride in September, when the LTP balance fell as low as +26% on September's dip to S&P 1,870.  That led us, in our last review, to add another $50,000 worth of downside protection in the STP and it worked perfectly, as the October dip barely touched us.

Well, not PERFECTLY, our net balance on the Long and Short-Term portfolios has dropped from $1,020,881.30 to $1,002,144.60 – down $18,736.70 (1.8%) for the month.  As I noted in our Chat Room, we did add ABX, ARO, BHI, BRCM, COH, IRBT, RIG, UNG and YHOO trades since our last review so we're hardly sitting on our hands – just playing the market cautiously in the final quarter since we're so far ahead in the game.  

SPX DAILYUnfortunately, like all prevent defenses, you end up giving back a little ground in the interest of preserving the greater victory.  Of course, that doesn't stop us from having plenty of other trade ideas – they just weren't added to our tracking portflios yet.  

AAPL, for instance was featured as it dropped back below $115 and IBM was officially announced as our trade of the year as it plunged to $130 and it's already begun to recover.  At our Butterfly Portfolio Seminar in Washington last week, we went over 20 stocks we'll be watching in 2016 but mostly AFTER we get through the holidays intact!  

It can be hard to sit on the sidelines in cash – especially when we've had such fun increasing our cash piles all year long.  However, as I mentioned above, we had a $115,000 swing in the LTP in Sept and, despite making some offsetting gains in the STP to compensate – that was a little more variation than I was comfortable with.  We did, in fact, go on a buying spree at the Aug dip…
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5% Portfolio Review – Month 3 – Up 15.5%

We are right on target.  

At the end of our 3rd month, our 5% Portfolio (now called the Options Opportunity Portfolio) is right on target with an overall portfolio balance of $115,538, which is up 15.5% from our August 8th starting date.  Even more impressive is the $26,521 (26.5%) we've made on the positions we've closed so far and we've re-invested some of those profits into new, aggressive long-term positions that we feel will bring us further net gains down the road.

The 5% (Monthly) Portfolio is a project we have been running with Seeking Alpha for readers who were interested in learning various option trading techniques that could generate a monthly income in a virtual tracking portfolio.  The name was changed to the Options Opportunity Portfolio, which is also descriptive but our goal remains using a $100,000 Portfolio with ordinary margin to generate $5,000 in monthly income.  As you can see, our current open positions are using just $13,000 in margin and we have $84,743 in cash, reflecting our very cautious stance in the current market environment.  

Another huge educational point we are trying to make here is that you don't have to risk a lot to get great returns.  Here is a rundown of all the positions we've closed to date – about 17 different stocks and ETFs we've identified over the same amount of weeks – not a very active portfolio but not one for passive traders either (and that reminds me that our Butterfly Portfolio Seminar will be next week in Washington DC!).  

It should be noted that our biggest winning position that we've closed, SQQQ (+$9,351), is also our biggest open loss that we haven't closed (-$8,050) and that's the focus of today's lesson.  SQQQ is an ultra-short Nasdaq ETF that moves 3 times the inverse to QQQ.  We use it as a hedge, as insurance, to protect our long-term positions and, like any insurance policy – we kind of hope it never pays off!  

Still, the nature of the market is that it goes up and down with great regularity and, currently, SQQQ is down a lot as the Nasdaq is back at all-time highs so we
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PSW October Portfolio Review – Part 2

We discussed our strategies in Part 1

This is Part 2 and it's a Member's only view of the 4 virtual portfolios we track for our Members.  We already did these reviews Live in our Member Chat Room – this is just a consolidation of the updates for reference purposes.  Our Member Portfolios are:  

  • Option Opportunities Portfolio – OOP ($100,000 base):  This is a self-contained portfolio that is also published at Seeking Alpha and looks for short-term opportunities to make money off of news or events using various option strategies.  Our goal here is to teach how to trade with options as well as how to identify events that cause price mismatches we are able to take advantag of.  
  • Butterfly Portfolio – ($100,000 base):  Our most stable portfolio, using what are really mainly double-diagonal calendar spreads to create low-risk, self-hedging positons that emphasize our "Be the House – NOT the Gambler" strategy for premium selling.  It's a low-touch portfolio, requiring monthly maintennance.    
  • Short-Term Portfolio – STP ($100,000 base):  The first part of our main paired portfolios.  The STP's primary purpose is to protect the bullish LTP but, since that's not a full-time job, we also make opportunity-type plays when they present themselves.  As there is usually plenty of margin laying around, we also make fairly complex earnings plays that would not be appropriate for stand-along $100K portfolios.  
  • Long-Term Portfolio – LTP ($500,000 base):  This is our main strategy for long-term investing which follows our "Planting Trees" model.  We INTEND to build long-term positions with very low bais BUT in a very bullish market, we end up cashing out when our positions trend far above our expectations.  This portfolio, by itself is very volatile, as the hedges are in the STP while the vast majority of our LTP positions are bullish and also a low-touch portfolio.    

Short-Term Portfolio (STP) still isn't bearish enough as it's only down $8,000 while the LTP is up $15,000 for the week so let's see how we can tilt a bit more bearish into the weekend!  



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Struggling U.S. Economy Propped Up by Gain in Consumer Spending (Bloomberg)

The U.S. economy stumbled in the first half of 2016 as companies retrenched, leaving consumers to shoulder the burden of sustaining growth heading into the presidential election.

The stock market's ridiculously boring streak won't last (Business Insider)

The s...



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Phil's Favorites

Crisis Actors and a Reichstag Fire

 

Crisis Actors and a Reichstag Fire

Courtesy of John Mauldin

This week your Outside the Box is from my friend Ben Hunt, who writes his letter under the title Epsilon Theory. This edition is a little darker than usual, and certainly more of a think piece. A central argument that Ben makes in Epsilon Theory is that it is Narrativethat is the driver of politics, economics, and social interaction generally. The Narrative is what we all (mostly) believe and act upon. Investors generally believe that quantitative easing is going to result in a rising stock market, so they act as if another round of QE and continued low or negative rates are good for the equity markets; and thus the game...



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Zero Hedge

MacVLaDiMiR THe CaT

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

MacVladimir The Cat: The Napoleon of Globalist Crime 

MacVladimir a Mystery Cat: he's called the Hidden Paw—
For he's the master criminal who defies globalists with a guffaw.
He's the bafflement of Scotland Yard, the Neocon's despair:
For when they reach the scene of crime—MacVladimir's not there!

MacVladimir, MacVladimir, there's no one like Ma...

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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Weak GDP? No Worries!

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

The potential mover and shaker this morning was the surprisingly weak Advance Estimate of GDP for Q2, not to mention the downward revisions to the two previous quarters. But no worries for the market! The S&P 500 hits its -0.30% intraday low about 30 minutes into the trade and then bounced to its 0.32% intraday high during the lunch hour -- a record intraday high for that matter. A bit of zigzagging in the afternoon cut the closing gain in half to 0.16%, just a tad shy of a record close.

The bond market took a somewhat different view. The yield on the 10-year dropped six basis points to close at 1.46%. That's nine BPs off its all-time closing low and 11 BPs below its close on July 22, when the S&P 500 set its latest record close.

He...



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ValueWalk

NetSuite Inc Stock Soars On Oracle Corporation Bid

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

NetSuite Inc (NYSE:N) is soaring this morning as Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ:ORCL) has made a bid to buy the company for $9.3 billion. This deal has been rumored for some time but obviously few expected such a large premium or did not think the bid was certaintly coming as the stock is up about 18 percent at the time of this writing which is a lot for a tech giant. Here is what the sell side is saying.

NetSuite – analysts react

Nomura

Should the transaction take place, Oracle would pay about 9x NTM EV / revenue (based on consensus estimates for NetSuite), above the average multiple paid in our precedent SaaS Software acquisitions analysis of 6.8x . Additionally, Oracl...



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Mapping The Market

Illusion of Choice

From Jean-Luc:

Looks like we are down to about 10 companies for our consumer goods:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/illusion-of-choice-consumer-brands/

Just like banks, airlines and cable companies! 

The Illusion of Choice in Consumer Brands

Explore the full-size version of the above graphic in all its glory.

If today’s infographic looks familiar, that’s because it originates from a well-circulated report that Oxfam International puts together to show consolidation i...



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Digital Currencies

Judge Rules Bitcoin Isn't Money Because It "Can't be Hidden Under A Mattress"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Everett Numbers via TheAntiMedia.org

In a landmark decision, a Florida judge dismissed charges of money laundering against a Bitcoin seller on Monday following expert testimony showing state law did not apply to the cryptocurrency.

Michell Espinoza was charged with three felony charges related to money laundering i...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Junk Bonds at important inflection point, should impact stocks!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Junk bonds have been quality at sending Risk On and Risk Off message to the broad stock market. Below looks at Junk Bond ETF JNK over the past decade.

JNK finds itself at an important price point below and what it does in the upcoming couple of weeks could become a big influence on the Risk On/Risk Off trade.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 25th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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