Archive for the ‘Virtual Portfolio Review’ Category

PhilStockWorld April Portfolio Review (Members Only)

$1,450,390 – that's up 141% at the end of the first quarter of year three.

More importantly, our paired and balanced Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios are up 45% since our December review and, essentially, they are the same positions – especially in the LTP, which has gained $318,747 (49%) in the 4 months since 12/13 – and those are the positions we don't touch at all and, more importantly, those are the positions which make up the bulk of our portfolio allocations – as they are meant to be INVESTMENTS – not trades!  

To you day traders out there – I implore you  - please read the December review and look over those positions and check out those same positions 3 months later and CONSIDER – please consider – that day-trading may not be the best way to play the market.  Yes, the LTP goes up and down too but, when it's down, we have cash on the side to buy bigger positions (which is what we did last year) while they are cheap.  Since those positions are INVESTMENTS, we end up with something of great value when the market comes back.

SPX WEEKLY

With day trading – even the best day traders spend 1/3 of their time trying to win back what they've lost and the stress level of day trading is through the roof compared to our very simple, long-term, Be the House – NOT the Gambler strategy.  Even our ultra-conservative, ultra low-touch Butterfly Portfolio popped from $181,075 to $263,052, a gain of $81,977 (82%) in 4 short months.  Admittedly, we went off book and got aggressive in the Jan dip, as we expected another round of drastic Central Bank action to save the market – and it did.  

I'll tell you now that, on the next breakdown, I will be nowhere near as confident flipping bullish.  I think the CBs are almost out of ammo and already their moves smack of desperation so I'm now leaning towards a lot of hedging (we did a lot of that earlier this month) or just getting the Hell out with our massive gains and starting again in the Fall (or whenever we get another nice dip).  I don't mind going to CASH!!!, having a fantastic, relaxing summer and then coming…
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Philstockworld Top Trade Review – Q1 2016

Yet another fantastic quarter for our Top Trade Ideas!  

Of course, it's been like shooting fish in a barrel since the February dip on the bull side but the really cool thing is we also called the drop on Jan 8th with SDS and SQQQ hedges that paid off huge as we bottomed out the next month.  We only started doing Top Trades last August and what we do is simply select one or two trades a week from our Live Member Chat Room at Philstockworld that we feel have a very high probability of success.  That then sends out Text and EMail Alerts to our Members, so it's perfect for people who don't have time to be on-line during the day.  All PSW Basic and Premium Members have Top Trade Access (just make sure your smart phone number is in the box here). 

We don't have a portfolio for our Top Trades as it would be redundant to our 4 Member Tracking Portfolios but many Top Trade Ideas are from trades we do officially add to our portfolios.  That's why we do these reviews once in a while – to check in and see if our logic is on or off track.  You can't make good future decisions without learning from your past ones – something we emphasize at PSW!  

38 of our first 57 (66%) Top Trade ideas were winners and 4 of our 15 losers were Lumber Liquidators (LL) trade ideas – all of which are now coming back as LL pops back towards $20!  Getting two out of three trades right is plenty to move the investing ball towards the goal line.  

Combine that with sensible portfolio management techniques (diversification, managing losses, hedging) and you'll beat the S&P by a mile with no sweat.  Generally, with our Top Trades, we're simply picking stocks we feel are underpriced and we're using our various options techniques to give ourselves even better discounts and hedged entries but these are patience plays that can take time to get going, usually our Top Trade Ideas have long-term objectives.  

Without further ado, here's the next month of trades for review – some are still good for new entries:

Our first Top Trade Alert of the…
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PhilStockWorld March Portfolio Review (Members Only)

$1,347,359 – that's up 124% in just over 2 years!

More importantly, our paired and balanced Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios are up 34% since our December review and, essentially, they are the same positions – especially in the LTP, which has gained $210,056 (35%) in the 3 months since 12/13 – and those are the positions we don't touch at all and, more importantly, those are the positions which make up the bulk of our portfolio allocations – as they are meant to be INVESTMENTS – not trades!  

To you day traders out there – I implore you  - please read the December review and look over those positions and check out those same positions 3 months later and CONSIDER – please consider – that day-trading may not be the best way to play the market.  Yes, the LTP goes up and down too but, when it's down, we have cash on the side to buy bigger positions (which is what we did last year) while they are cheap.  Since those positions are INVESTMENTS, we end up with something of great value when the market comes back.

SPX DAILY

With day trading – even the best day traders spend 1/3 of their time trying to win back what they've lost and the stress level of day trading is through the roof compared to our very simple, long-term, Be the House – NOT the Gambler strategy.  Even our ultra-conservative, ultra low-touch Butterfly Portfolio popped from $181,075 to $238,800, a gain of $57,725 (57.7%) in 3 short months.  Admittedly, we went off book and got aggressive in the Jan dip, as we expected another round of drastic Central Bank action to save the market – and it did.  

I'll tell you now that, on the next breakdown, I will be nowhere near as confident flipping bullish.  I think the CBs are almost out of ammo and already their moves smack of desperation so I'm now leaning towards a lot of hedging (we did some of that last week) or just getting the Hell out with our massive gains and starting again in the Fall (or whenever we get another nice dip).  I don't mind going to CASH!!!, having a fantastic, relaxing summer and then coming back in the Fall…
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Options Opportunity Portfolio – 2016 Preview

What a crazy year 2015 was!

We began tracking this new virtual portfolio back in August and, in less than 4 months, we closed 80 option positions on 20 stocks (or ETFs) so pretty active in the beginning.  At one point we were up 20% but the net gain on the positions we've closed ended up at just $9,572 or +9.5% from our $100,000 opening balance.  

Since that pace was more hectic than we had intended and the market was very choppy, we moved towards longer-term investments which have the downside of being "expensive" to set up – in that the portfolio will tend to reflect the worst-case scenario for buying or selling options based on the bid/ask spread – no matter how unrealistic the pricing is.  This is, however, something options players need to learn to understand when they are looking at their positions – and we'll discuss that in detail as we examine each of our open positions:

Notice first that we have $98,672 worth of cash on hand.  We started with $100,000 and, using just $1,328 of our original cash, we now control a substantial amount of positions.  On the margin side, we are using $48,700 out of $200,000 of ordinary margin (not Portfolio Margin, which would be much more) and, generally, we don't want to use more than 1/2 of our margin – saving the rest for emergencies.  

At this stage in the process, we're not so much concerned with the BALANCE of the positions as we are to whether or not they are on or off track for their goals.  Options trades can swing wildly in value as premiums fluctuate as well as the price of the underlying security – your job as an options trader is to understand the VALUE of your options so you can identify which ones are misPRICED and learn to take advantage of the differences.  

  • BBY – If BBY is over $31 on Jan 15th, the short puts expire worthless and we make the whole $900.  As it stands, we're about 1/2 up and on track to make $450 more.  

  • Since we liked


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PhilStockWorld December Portfolio Review – Million Dollar Edition!

Still One Million Dollars!  

$1,004,162.60 to be exact and that is UP $2,018 since our last Portfolio Review, back on 11/23 (right before Thanksgiving).  As I said at the time, +66% was our 3-year goal for our primary, paired portfolios (we began with $600,000).  Since we hit that target before the end of year two and into what we thought would be a tumultuous holiday period - locking ourselves into a protective, neutral position seemed prudent – especially as, on the whole, I'd rather be in CASH!!!  

Unfortunately, CASH!!! is not a very popular position and I bowed to the will of our Members and kept the virtual portfolios running, rather than cashing in in August.  Frankly, I don't think I would have done any better from a cash position since August anyway as I've been too gung-ho bullish on Natural Gas (/NG) and too bearish on the FANG stocks – or at least Amazone (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX) – both of which are bearish plays in our STP and LTP that are hurting us.  

So there's certainly something to be said for having a well-diversified and well-hedged portfolio strategy and we do have PLENTY of cash in our portfolios (almost 90%, in fact) but, more importantly, we're using quite a bit of margin now – so we're not as flexible as it seems (using ordinary margin – not portfolio margin, which would have tons of room).  That's because, especially in the LTP, we rely on short put sales to generate a steady supply of cash but, when the whole market goes down at once – the margins can get stretched and we lose some flexibility.  

SPX DAILYWe're prepared to see 1,850 tested on the S&P but much lower than that and we're going to have to start covering some positions.  That money, if needed, would come out of the Short-Term Portfolio (STP) which gained $31,742 in the past few weeks while the Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) lost $32,031 – as it's amost entirely full of bullish positions.  

So, denied the opportunity to go to cash (and circumstances do sometimes prevent this when you are trading), we have opted to balance ourselves to the point of neutrality…
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PhilStockWorld October Portfolio Review – Million Dollar Edition!

One Million Dollars!  

That's up 66% on our main, paired portflios as we approach our 2-year anniversary.  66% is our 3-year goal for the Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolio strategy so of course we decided to lock in our gains after having a rough ride in September, when the LTP balance fell as low as +26% on September's dip to S&P 1,870.  That led us, in our last review, to add another $50,000 worth of downside protection in the STP and it worked perfectly, as the October dip barely touched us.

Well, not PERFECTLY, our net balance on the Long and Short-Term portfolios has dropped from $1,020,881.30 to $1,002,144.60 – down $18,736.70 (1.8%) for the month.  As I noted in our Chat Room, we did add ABX, ARO, BHI, BRCM, COH, IRBT, RIG, UNG and YHOO trades since our last review so we're hardly sitting on our hands – just playing the market cautiously in the final quarter since we're so far ahead in the game.  

SPX DAILYUnfortunately, like all prevent defenses, you end up giving back a little ground in the interest of preserving the greater victory.  Of course, that doesn't stop us from having plenty of other trade ideas – they just weren't added to our tracking portflios yet.  

AAPL, for instance was featured as it dropped back below $115 and IBM was officially announced as our trade of the year as it plunged to $130 and it's already begun to recover.  At our Butterfly Portfolio Seminar in Washington last week, we went over 20 stocks we'll be watching in 2016 but mostly AFTER we get through the holidays intact!  

It can be hard to sit on the sidelines in cash – especially when we've had such fun increasing our cash piles all year long.  However, as I mentioned above, we had a $115,000 swing in the LTP in Sept and, despite making some offsetting gains in the STP to compensate – that was a little more variation than I was comfortable with.  We did, in fact, go on a buying spree at the Aug dip…
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5% Portfolio Review – Month 3 – Up 15.5%

We are right on target.  

At the end of our 3rd month, our 5% Portfolio (now called the Options Opportunity Portfolio) is right on target with an overall portfolio balance of $115,538, which is up 15.5% from our August 8th starting date.  Even more impressive is the $26,521 (26.5%) we've made on the positions we've closed so far and we've re-invested some of those profits into new, aggressive long-term positions that we feel will bring us further net gains down the road.

The 5% (Monthly) Portfolio is a project we have been running with Seeking Alpha for readers who were interested in learning various option trading techniques that could generate a monthly income in a virtual tracking portfolio.  The name was changed to the Options Opportunity Portfolio, which is also descriptive but our goal remains using a $100,000 Portfolio with ordinary margin to generate $5,000 in monthly income.  As you can see, our current open positions are using just $13,000 in margin and we have $84,743 in cash, reflecting our very cautious stance in the current market environment.  

Another huge educational point we are trying to make here is that you don't have to risk a lot to get great returns.  Here is a rundown of all the positions we've closed to date – about 17 different stocks and ETFs we've identified over the same amount of weeks – not a very active portfolio but not one for passive traders either (and that reminds me that our Butterfly Portfolio Seminar will be next week in Washington DC!).  

It should be noted that our biggest winning position that we've closed, SQQQ (+$9,351), is also our biggest open loss that we haven't closed (-$8,050) and that's the focus of today's lesson.  SQQQ is an ultra-short Nasdaq ETF that moves 3 times the inverse to QQQ.  We use it as a hedge, as insurance, to protect our long-term positions and, like any insurance policy – we kind of hope it never pays off!  

Still, the nature of the market is that it goes up and down with great regularity and, currently, SQQQ is down a lot as the Nasdaq is back at all-time highs so we
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PSW October Portfolio Review – Part 2

We discussed our strategies in Part 1

This is Part 2 and it's a Member's only view of the 4 virtual portfolios we track for our Members.  We already did these reviews Live in our Member Chat Room – this is just a consolidation of the updates for reference purposes.  Our Member Portfolios are:  

  • Option Opportunities Portfolio – OOP ($100,000 base):  This is a self-contained portfolio that is also published at Seeking Alpha and looks for short-term opportunities to make money off of news or events using various option strategies.  Our goal here is to teach how to trade with options as well as how to identify events that cause price mismatches we are able to take advantag of.  
  • Butterfly Portfolio – ($100,000 base):  Our most stable portfolio, using what are really mainly double-diagonal calendar spreads to create low-risk, self-hedging positons that emphasize our "Be the House – NOT the Gambler" strategy for premium selling.  It's a low-touch portfolio, requiring monthly maintennance.    
  • Short-Term Portfolio – STP ($100,000 base):  The first part of our main paired portfolios.  The STP's primary purpose is to protect the bullish LTP but, since that's not a full-time job, we also make opportunity-type plays when they present themselves.  As there is usually plenty of margin laying around, we also make fairly complex earnings plays that would not be appropriate for stand-along $100K portfolios.  
  • Long-Term Portfolio – LTP ($500,000 base):  This is our main strategy for long-term investing which follows our "Planting Trees" model.  We INTEND to build long-term positions with very low bais BUT in a very bullish market, we end up cashing out when our positions trend far above our expectations.  This portfolio, by itself is very volatile, as the hedges are in the STP while the vast majority of our LTP positions are bullish and also a low-touch portfolio.    

Short-Term Portfolio (STP) still isn't bearish enough as it's only down $8,000 while the LTP is up $15,000 for the week so let's see how we can tilt a bit more bearish into the weekend!  



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PSW October Portfolio Review – $1.1M Edition (Part 1 – The Strategy)

One Million Dollars!  

That seemed like a lot just two weeks ago, when we did our September Portfolio Review but, as I said at the time, though mainly in cash, we had kept a very bullish set of "losing" position in the Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) as we expected the next stage of the up cycle to include our beaten down oil and materials stocks.  

Boy did we nail that one!  In just two weeks, our paired Short-Term Portfolio (STP) and LTP combo have gained $91,154 to bring our combined total to $1,112,035.60 – a new high and up 85% since our Thanksgiving, 2013 start date.  Much more impressive though, than making 85% in two years, is making another 9.1% in two weeks!

We didn't do anything fancy, these are essentially the same positions we featured in our last Portfolio Review – we simply left them alone to do their thing – as we should be doing with our long-term plays.  The key to our success was sticking with our strategy and our strategy included:

  1. Taking our winners off the table when we felt the market was getting toppy  
  2. Evaluating all of our remaining positions
  3. Cutting the positions we no longer had faith in 
  4. Adding to or adjusting the positions that remained to maximize their profit potential

Our paired portfolio strategy essentially forces us to buy low and sell high.  By scaling into a diversified group of positions, including a healthy amount of market shorts at any given time – it's virtually impossible for at least some of our positions not to be winning in almost any market conditions.  Then we simply cash in our winner and use that money to scale into our "losers" – if we believe they are only victims of a cycle moving against them – as opposed to having fundamentally lost something since our original investment.  

Usually, we don't run our virtual portfolios for more than a year because people like to feel they are starting fresh but, two years ago, I decided we need to make a point about our Long-Term Investing Strategy (see "The Man Who Planted Trees" for details).  We discussed our…
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Philstockworld Top Trade Review – October

How interesting the markets have been.  

In our August Top Trade Review, I mentioned we were starting a new product, which began as the 5% Portfolio and was renamed the Options Opportunity Portfolio, which has been a huge success, now up 16.7% at the close if the second month:

These are, for the most part, short-term trades but we've been layering in some longer-term trade ideas – using our profits to invest in trades that will generate steady monthly gains over time, rather than only focusing on "quickies".  

Our Top Trade Ideas, generally, tend to be longer-term trades and we don't have a portfolio that tracks them specifically.  They are generally selected trades from the ones that we are adding to PSW's Short-Term Portfolio or Long-Term Portfolio and tend to be of the "set and forget" variety, while our OOP trades require a bit more active management.  

While 30 of our first 45 (66%) Top Trade ideas were winners, 4 of our 15 losers were Lumber Liquidators (LL) trade ideas – all of which are now coming back as LL pops back to $20!  Hopefully it can break over $20 and we can put all that silliness behind us.  

Getting two out of three trades right is plenty to move the investing ball towards the goal line.  Combine that with sensible portfolio management techniques (diversification, managing losses, hedging) and you'll beat the S&P by a mile with no sweat.  Generally, with our Top Trades, we're simply picking stocks we feel are underpriced and we're using our various options techniques to give ourselves even better discounts and hedged entries but these are patience plays – that do take time to get going, though we did call for a cash-out of our winners in July, so August was kind of a fresh start.

Without further ado, here's the next month of trades for review – some are still good for new entries:

On Aug 4th we saw a news article that Windstream (WIN) won a contract for $450M to build out wireless services for the VA.  As WIN was a company we had played in the past, this…
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Zero Hedge

Stocks Slump Most In 3 Months As Commodities & Credit Crash

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Seriously...

First things first - it's payrolls day so stock ramp no matter what... But gold topped stocks post-payrolls and bonds were sold as crude rallied most...

It's been a volatile week...

  • S&P 500 Down 2.3% - Worst 2-week drop in 3 months
  • Dow Transpo...


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Chart School

The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and the Business Cycle

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

Note: We've updated this commentary to include the latest labor force data in today's employment report.

Every week we post an update on new unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. Our focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press generally takes a fairly simplistic view of the latest number, and the market often reacts, for a few minutes or a few hours, to the initial estimate, which is always revised the following week.

One of our featured charts in the update shows the four-week moving average from the inception of this se...



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Phil's Favorites

Here is the GOP's Presumptive Nominee on Negotiating Treasury Payments

Trump needs a redo. It's one thing that Trump likes debt, it's another thing that he likes debt because he can default. That is not OK. 

Here is the GOP’s Presumptive Nominee on Negotiating Treasury Payments

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker

I’m not a Hillary fan and I voted for Romney last time, so don’t even think about pigeonholing me into a partisan / bias debate.

But I have to just point out, this is the mentality of the GOP’s presumptive nominee for the Presidency, on how he thinks about Treasury bonds, which are the bedrock of global capitalism and geopolitical stability in the Milky Way gal...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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ValueWalk

SpaceX completes another successful rocket launch and landing [CHARTS]

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

SpaceX completes another successful rocket launch and landing [CHARTS]

On Friday, SpaceX successfully launched a Falcon 9 rocket, which delivered a television broadcast satellite into orbit and subsequently landed on an ocean platform. SpaceX was contracted by SKY Perfect JSAT Corp, a Japanese telecommunication company. Friday’s delivery was the fourth successful mission for SpaceX in 2016.

See the following visualizations which highlight relevant figures regarding SpaceX missions, as well as the company’s funding history.

SpaceX Missions by Year

SpaceX Missions by Customer

SpaceX Missions

Space Exploration Technologies Corporation’s Funding History

The post ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil testing resistance, fear index testing support, says Joe

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Once Crude Oil started turning weak in 2014/2015, many stock markets around the world have struggled to move much higher.

Crude Oil hit support in February of this year and has rallied almost 50% off the lows and stocks have followed to the upside.

Joe Friday Just The Facts;  What Crude Oil does at resistance above, could have a large impact on stocks going forward, as Crude is testing resistance and its fear index is testing support.

...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Patch Bankruptcies Hit $34.3 Billion (Value Walk)

The number of oil patch bankruptcies continues to rise, and the number of companies filing for creditor protection is accelerating, that’s according to according to law firm Haynes and Boone LP’s May Oil Patch Bankruptcy Monitor.

Oil Price Drop Vanquishes Cutting-Edge Projects (Wall Street Journal)

The wo...



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Digital Currencies

"I Can Only Say I'm Sorry" - Self-Professed Bitcoin "Creator" Can't Provide Proof, Backs Out

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Two years after Newsweek wrote an inaugural article upon returning to print in which it "unmasked" bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto and which turned out be a hoax (the author "found" Nakamoto using a white pages search), earlier this week the world was fixated on the story of another self-professed bitcoin "creator", this time Australian entrepreneuer Craig Wright, who &quo...



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Biotech

Cantor Says Relypsa's Veltassa Metrics Look Favorable

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Relypsa Inc (NASDAQ: RLYP) shares have plummeted 51 percent year-to-date, under pressure from debt-financing related concerns. Cantor Fitzgerald’s Mara Goldstein reiterated a Buy rating for the company, while reducing the price target from $42 to $41. The analyst believes the 1Q16 results would be “a stabilizing force for the shares.”

Positive Data Points For Veltassa Launch

Veltassa metrics look favorable so far, including a low payer rejecti...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 2nd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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