Archive for the ‘Virtual Portfolio Review’ Category

Philstockworld Top Trade Review – July

Things are getting crazy! 

The markets have been zig-zagging all over the place but, fortunately, it's what we expected and our Long-Term Portfolio sits at $723,544, that's up 44.7% and down $23,859 (3.3%) from our last review but, fortunately, our paired Short-Term Portfolio did it's job and protected us, finishing the week up 152%, at $252,003 – just shy of a cool million from our $600,000 start on 11/26/13 (up 66% in 18 months).  

Our dual portfolio system allows us to be smart "buy and hold" investors in our large Long-Term Portfolio while navigating the choppy market waters in our much smaller (1/5th) Short-Term Portfolio, which hedges the LTP and lets us take advantage of short-term opportunities when they present themselves – like shorting Netflix (NFLX) at $700 last week - that was EASY MONEY!  Setting up BALANCED portfolios is the key to our success and a few useful articles on the subject are:

Although we've been running our current virtual portfolios since Thanksgiving of 2013, we are constantly adding new trades and the key for all of us is to find that balance and take the new trade ideas that work to give us even better balance and add those.  That's why, although we have dozens of trade ideas each month and almost a dozen Top Trades each month, very few of those picks end up in one of our portfolios.  You can't play every game – the important thing is to learn HOW to play, so you can win when you do!  

Top Trades began last October and all 3 of our initial picks (GSK, MAT, RRD) are well on track.  In the last two months, we've been on a major roll with 20 out of 25 of our trade ideas (80%) coming up winners already and only one (LL) really off track.  We do these reviews on trades that are 2-3 months old (so we're doing May now) as there's no point in reviewing trades we just initiated.  Keep…
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Philstockworld June Portfolio Review

We're on the road to nowhere.

As you can see from the S&P chart, we haven't missed much in cashing in our Long-Term Portfolio back on 3/24 as the markets have not really gone anywhere since.  And, of course, we didn't cash everything out, just our winners and positions we weren't sure about – the remaining 12 picks plus the stocks we added since have gained $69,275 (13.8%) for the quarter, protected by our generally bearish but opportunistic Short-Term Portfolio, which has gained a virtual $28,058 (28%) over the same 3-month period.  

While our Short-Term Portfolio is margin-intensive and aggressive (with a $100,000 base), the Long-Term Portfolio runs our patented "BE THE HOUSE – Not the Gambler" protocols (just put "Be the House" in Google and that's us!), aiming for steady, reliable gains in a low-touch environment.  The LTP had a $500,000 base on 11/26/13 and is currently up 47.9% at $739,470 but, because we SELL risk and don't buy it, we are still sitting on $753,430 in cash and using just $325,500 of $1.5M in margin.  

Could we have made more money if we had been more aggressive?  Sure we could have – as long as we were more aggressive at the right time!  As it is, we are teaching the BALANCED approach to portfolio management with the bulk of our investing capital (83%) going into conservative, long-term investing strategies (and staying mainly in cash so we can scale into losing positions if necessary) while the other 17% ($100K out of $600K) is for our "fun" day-trading and, more importantly, as a bearish hedge to our bullish long-term picks.  

Let's face it, those bullish long-term trades are self-hedged and our system, though brilliant, is like watching paint dry while we wait to grind out those returns.  The short-term trades don't just protect our LTP but they help keep us sane and it gives us something to do on those volatile days OTHER THAN MESSING WITH OUR LONG-TERM POSITIONS.  That's right, it's kind of a trick I developed over the years because the hardest thing to teach new Members at PSW is PATIENCE.  

Patience is what people have trouble with as those LTP returns are a


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PSW Top Trades Special Report – 4 Trades with VickreyBrown

GARP is "Growth at a Reasonable Price."

VickreyBrown Investments has teamed up with PSW and we have used their quantitative modeling system to identify 4 of the top value stocks for the 2nd half of 2015.  We began with a list of 50 top candidates that made it through their screener, narrowed it down to a sweet 16 round based on which candidates had the best Fundamentals, which we reviewed one by one in our Live Member Chat Room over the past week and now we're down to the final 4.

While each one, of course, is a good stock pick, we are also going to give examples of how you can enhance the returns for each trade using stock options for both leverage AND risk mitigation, using some of the "BE THE HOUSE – Not the Gambler" methods that we teach our Members at Philstockworld.  

(WYN) Wyndham Worldwide ($85.02) did not make the cut when we selected (HOT) Starwood Hotels as our favorite hotel stock last November at our Las Vegas Live Seminar but it came up on the screener as the sector has pulled back a bit.  HOT ran from $73 to $87 (+19%) before pulling back to $82 while WYN ran from $77 to $94 (22%) before pulling back to $85.  That makes WYN what we like to call a "fresh horse" as it has now pulled back more than HOT and the VB screener confirms  we're ready to get going again.

Back in November I liked HOT (Sheraton, St Regis, W, Westiin, Le Meridien) the best as they focused more on luxury travelers, which were the segment I expected to pick up first.  (IHG) InterContinental Hotels was also in the running but the Holiday Inn part bothered me as I wasn't sure bottom 80% consumers were ready to travel yet.   

WYN is more low-end (Ramada, Super-8, Howard Johnsons) but they did very well out of the gate before settling back to $85, which they have been testing for the past two weeks.  Vickrey's screener is correct as the value of WYN is better than either of the other two with $529M in earnings…
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Philstockworld’s Top Trade Review – June

Our new Top Trades Membership has become very popular!  

And no wonder – in our previous review, we looked at the progress of our March Trade Ideas (you have to give them a few months or what's the point?) and 11 of our 13 trade ideas that month were already big winners (up 20% to 750% on cash) and we had called for a cash out at the end of March, so now we're reviewing the "post-cash-out" trade ideas.  

It's good to take a look at what worked and what didn't – especially since those that didn't are often some of our best new opportunities!  It's been a crazy market environment but we try to find at least one Top Trade each week for our Alert subscribers (and, of course, our Premium Members).  I don't force them – I either like a trade enough to feature it or I don't.  

Top Trade Alerts are sent out once or twice a week via EMail and Text Message from our Basic and Premium Live Member's Chat Room.  These trades are just a very small portion of what we discuss during chat each day, but hopefully a good representative sample of the dozens of trade ideas we share with our Members each week in our Live Member Chat Room as well as our Weekly Live Webinars.

Keep in mind these are just snapshots of trades as of today – it's up to you to take good trades off the table and cut the losses (or make adjustments) on ones that go bad.  We're always discussing adjustments in our Live Member Chat Room – join us there for follow-ups.  

March 25th was the day after we called for cashing in the majority of our long positions in the Long-Term Portfolio which, at the time, was up 40.8% over 15 months at $703,885 (we began with a virtual $500,000 on 11/26/2013).  Since then (just over 2 months), we've added another $40,000 in gains, which is a very healthy 8% of our original $500K and outperforming our average long-term monthly gains of 2.5%.  Most of our Top Trade Alerts are for long-term trade ideas.

In our March 25th Alert, we discussed the…
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Philstockworld May Portfolio Review – Part II

The S&P has gone nowhere since our last review.

An neither have our portfolios!  Actually, we did gain another $8,092 (1%) in our Long-Term Portfolio, which is very good for two weeks and exremely good considering we're over 100% in CASH!!!  

How are we over 100% in cash?  Because we are BEING THE HOUSE – Not the Gambler™ and we are operating our Stock Market Casino and selling risk premium to others.  That is how we can reliably get these great returns.  We are NOT gambling, we are running a statistically beneficial model that allows us to collect risk premiums from people who are gambling on the direction of the stocks we own.  

The actual net value of the positions we hold is -$26,825, because we kept our losers back on March 24th, when we went to mainly cash ahead of this choppy earnings period – but our CASH!!! pile has greatly increased.  The S&P was at 2,104 then, it's at 2,122 now but our Long-Term Portfolio is up 12.1% since then and, depsite going to mainly cash, we have added 12 new positions in two months.  

The key is that we have much less at risk now and we're simply grinding out those montly gains that we can count on by SELLING risk to others, not gambling ourselves on which way the market might go.  Meanwhile, just yesterday we found two new trade ideas for the LTP – even in a rally, there are bargains to be had if you are PATIENT!  As I said back in March:

While it is our INTENTION in the LTP to hold our positions over time, when we get a ridiculous run in the market like the one we've had for the past year, it is simply foolish not to take advantage of it.  The stocks we bought were targeted to make 40% in two years, not 15 months and, when you are that far ahead of the curve – it's wise to turn those unrealized gains into realized ones before they disappear on you!

As we move through Q1 earnings, we'll be making a new Buy List for 2015 and, now


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PSW May Portfolio Review – Buying Those F’ing Dips

SPY DAILYWhat a spectacular month we had!  

We're starting May off at new highs in both of our paired portfolios.  The Short-Term Portfolio finished up 123.9% at $223,925, up $2,535 (1.1%) since our last review 12 days ago.  That is FANTASTIC because that's our bearish portfolio which, fortunately, we had adjusted to be not too bearish as the S&P bounced hard off that floor and is now back at the top of the channel.  

Because we cashed out our aggressive naked index shorts and retreated to longer-term spreads where we are BEING THE HOUSE – Not the Gambler (our core strategy), the market chop ended up being good for our wrong-way index shorts since it was worse on the calls we sold than the calls we bought.   See what a simple strategy this is?  

Meanwhile, we went on a shopping spree in the well-protected Long-Term Portfolio, adding 3 new short puts, one new dividend-payer and one new spread for 5 new positions in 3 weeks and the LTP finished the day yesterday up 51.3% at $756,472 and that's up $8,898 (1.2%) in the same 12 days.  Making money on both our bullish and bearish portfolio at the same time is quite a feat and our combined total of $980,397 is now up 63.4% from our $600,000 start in late Novemeber of 2013 (17 months).  

Also, keep in mind that we went back to mainly CASH!!! so the 1.1% gain is more impressive as we only have 20% of our virtual cash committed (not even 10% of our margin).  The LTP, in fact, has $765,815 in cash and -$9,343 in net positions.  Most of the gains we've had since cashing out were simply watching our "losing" positions turn back into winners as the Materials Sector cycled back around.  

While the chart above serves as a guidline in "normal" markets, this market is far from normal – so take it with a grain of salt but I do want to illustrate that stock sectors do tend to have cycles and our very simple philosophy when we cashed our most of our Long-Term Portfolio on March 24th was that our underperforming Energy and Material stocks were going to come around if we gave them time and
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Top Trade Review – April

Take this review with a grain of salt as we went back to cash on most.

Still, it's good to take a look at what worked and what didn't – especially since those that didn't are often some of our best new opportunities!  It's been a crazy market environment but we try to find at least one Top Trade each week for our Alert subscribers (and, of course, our Premium Members).  I don't force them – I either like a trade enough to feature it or I don't.  

Top Trade Alerts are sent out once or twice a week via EMail and Text Message from our Basic and Premium Live Member's Chat Room.  These trades are just a very small portion of what we discuss during chat each day, but hopefully a good representative sample of the dozens of trade ideas we share with our Members each week in our Live Member Chat Room as well as our Weekly Live Webinars (Tuesday's replay can be seen here).

Keep in mind these are just snapshots of trades as of today – it's up to you to take good trades off the table and cut the losses (or make adjustments) on ones that go bad.  We're always discussing adjustments in our Live Member Chat Room – join us there for follow-ups.  

2/20 – GOGO was our pick around lunchtime as we liked the story on the provider of WiFi services for airplanes.  GOGO was a part of our Income Portfolio before we cashed that out and it was just starting to rally back from the low end of the range and we didn't want to miss the breakout.  I wrote quite a dissertation about why I liked them and our new trade idea was:

So, for the LTP, let's sell 10 2017 $15 puts for $4.40


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PSW April Portfolio Review – Market Pullback Boosts our Gains!

121.4%!  

That's how much our bearish Short-Term Portfolio is now up as of Friday's close.  In just three weeks of trading since our last Portfolio Review on March, 30th, where we very wisely cashed out the majority of our long positions ahead of the coming correction, we've added $19,055 in virtual gains.  

Even better, in our Long-Term Portfolio, we left our "losing" positions in the materials space in the energy and material space and, without any changes since other than adding a couple of new positions (we had a lot of cash, so why not), our larger Long-Term Portfolio has jumped $43,237 (6.1%) during the same period.  We could not have picked a more perfect combination of long and short positions to ride out the last 3 weeks of the market!  

That has driven the Primary Trading Strategy that we teach our Members at PSW (of keeping a Long-Term Bullish Portfolio with a Short-Term Bearish Portfolio) to a new record of $968,512, up $368,512 (61.4%) from our $600,000 start right after Thanksgiving in 2013 (17 months).  We have these gains, at the moment, because our timing was PERFECT.  But, our timing wasn't perfect by accident – it's the design of the Long/Short strategy that we are able to hold onto our positions when our timing is NOT perfect UNTIL it is.  It makes us look a lot smarter than we actually are!  

We were off track into the end of the year because we flipped bearish a bit too early but being off track wasn't so painful in the Short-Term Portfolio because we still had our long positions in the very bullish and much bigger Long-Term Portfolio.  More importantly, because we had a goal of making 20% a year, when the Long-Term Portfolio hit the 40% mark on March 30th, we decided it was ahead of schedule and cashed out our winners, letting the losers we still had faith in ride.

That left us very bullish on cyclical stocks while we dumped all the high-performing positions – even our beloved AAPL, as it had gotten too big, too fast for our liking.   There was also a bit
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PSW March Portfolio Review – Cashing In Our Long-Term Gains

And we're out!  

After making a ridiculous 40.8% in 15 months, we decided on Tuesday morning to get back to cash in our Long-Term Portfolio.   We still have 13 positions left, mostly in the materials space but, as you can see, our cash now exceeds our portfolio's total value ($703,885.23) because the positions we did keep were our "losers" (so far) that are down, as a group, by $73,780.  

There is almost not a single position we sold that I wouldn't be happy to buy back if they get cheap again but we didn't make 40% in just over a year by chasing winners.  The way we built this portfolio was first creating a Buy List (Members, see our Virtual Portfolio Section for our last list) and then choosing a bargain every few weeks to add to our Long-Term Portfolio.  As we move through Q1 earnings, we'll be making a new Buy List for 2015 and, now that we're back in cash, we'll begin making new picks for our Long-Term Portfolio. 

While it is our INTENTION in the LTP to hold our positions over time, when we get a ridiculous run in the market like the one we've had for the past year, it is simply foolish not to take advantage of it.  The stocks we bought were targeted to make 40% in two years, not 15 months and, when you are that far ahead of the curve – it's wise to turn those unrealized gains into realized ones before they disappear on you!  

In our last review (just 3 weeks ago) we were at $640,797 in the LTP so we gained 10% in 3 weeks on our positions – that's ridiculous.  Never confuse being lucky with being good – gaining 10% in a month is lucky becuase, if we were that good, we'd be averaging 100% a year, right?  Since we KNOW we're not that good, we need to take advantage of our luck – especially when we are worried about what lies ahead for the market.  

Even luckier, our Short-Term Portfolio, whose primary function is to protect the Long-Term Portfolio, held it's ground while the LTP made its gains, going from $201,495 on
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PSW March Top Trade Review – Navigating Choppy Markets

What an exciting start to the year this has been.  

It's been a difficult trading environment, to say the least and this will be the first full year featuring our new Top Trade Alerts™ (Members Only) and I look forward to doing these educational review sessions at least each quarter (our last one was January) to review both our trade ideas and our use of options to make those trade ideas as profitable as possible.  

Top Trade Alerts are sent out once or twice a week via EMail and Text Message from our Basic and Premium Live Member's Chat Room.  These trades are just a very small portion of what we discuss during chat each day, but hopefully a good representative sample of the dozens of trade ideas we share with our Members each week in our Live Member Chat Room as well as our Weekly Live Webinars (replays can be seen here).  

Keep in mind these are just snapshots of trades as of today – it's up to you to take good trades off the table and cut the losses (or make adjustments) on ones that go bad.  We're always discussing adjustments in our Live Member Chat Room – join us there for follow-ups.   

Our first top trade idea for 2015 was UCO on Jan 5th and UCO did have a nice pop and we cashed them out of the $25,000 Portfolio with a nice profit on February's pop to $9.50+.

 UCO has since pulled back and the July $14s fell all the way to 0.15 but now the July $8s are just 0.95 and make a nice way to go long on oil or, you can be more conservative and buy the $6 calls for $1.85 and sell the $9s for 0.70 for net $1.15 on the $3 spread.  

On Jan 8th we took a poke at RIG when they fell to $16.15, selling the 2017 $8 puts for $1.70 for a net $6.30 entry, paired with the 2017 $10/15 bull call spread at $2.50 for net 0.80 on the $5 spread.  RIG has fallen off considerably since, to…
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ValueWalk

China's Stock Markets Imploded In June - Why?

View original post here.

China's Stock Markets Imploded In June - Why? by Gary D. Halbert

FORECASTS & TRENDS E-LETTER
by Gary D. Halbert
July 7, 2015

IN THIS ISSUE:

  1. Another Ho-Hum, Disappointing Jobs Report For June
  2. June Consumer Confidence Was Up More Than Expected
  3. Gallup Job Creation Index at Record High May/June
  4. China’s Stock Markets Imploded Over the Last Month
  5. Editorial: China’s Big, Misguided Stock Market Gamble

Overview

While the mainstream media has been obsessed with Greece over the la...



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Zero Hedge

VaRouFaKiS vs THe SQuiD...

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

...

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Phil's Favorites

The language of lying

Here's a 5 minute lesson on how to spot lies. Note that the stock market is a venue in which a lot of people try to make money by convincing you to buy a particular stock -- without telling you their real interests. So you need to watch out.

The language of lying

We hear anywhere from 10 to 200 lies a day. And although we’ve spent much of our history coming up with ways to detect these lies by tracking physiological changes in their tellers, these methods have proved unreliable. Is there a more direct approach? Noah Zandan uses some famous examples of lying to illustrate how we might use communications science to analyze the lies themselves.

...



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Chart School

S&P To Break 2085?

Courtesy of Declan.

A huge bullish reversal after an opening sell off leaves things nicely set for bulls tomorrow. The media attributed a recovery in oil prices to market gains (a rare attribution for oil prices!), but whatever the cause it was a big intraday swing.

The S&P spiked through 200-day MA support on heavy volume accumulation. Other technicals are net bearish, although the index is enjoying a relative performance against Small Caps.


The Nasdaq also spiked low, but not at major support. Although it wouldn't be hard to pick a swing low from previous scrappy trading to mark a support level.

...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Trade Deficit increased in May to $41.9 Billion (Calculated Risk)

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $41.9 billion in May, up $1.2 billion from $40.7 billion in April, revised. May exports were $188.6 billion, $1.5 billion less than April exports. May imports were $230.5 billion, $0.3 billion less than April imports.

'The Great Fall of China' is hitting other markets (Business Insider)

China's ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Interest rates attempting breakdown, after historic rally!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

From the first of February to the end of June, the yield on the 10-year note shot up nearly 40%. This sharp rally hurt bond funds big time, as TLT suffered one of worst short-term declines in its history, falling 13% in a 16-weeks. (See post here and chart below) 

The strong rally in yields took them to the 2.5% level, where they hit dual resistance at (1) above. This dual resistance was its 2-year falling channel and the 61% level. Now yields could be breaking down from its historic yield ra...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls prepare for a new buying opportunity, courtesy of Greece

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Of course, all eyes have been on Greece in an ongoing saga that, although critical to the Greeks, is mostly just an annoying distraction for global investors -- partly because it has been going on for so many years, with the proverbial can of inevitability continually being kicked down the road, and partly because there can be no winners in this intractable situation. Predictably, the electorate chose to follow the advice of the communists that they elected and reject the rigid bailout offer, calling the bluff of the IMF, ECB, and Eurozone and betting they will do whatever it takes to avoid losing one of its members. These are uncharted waters, and with the resultant s...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 6th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Surges After Initial Forecasts Show "No" Vote Ahead

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If the early bitcoin markets are an indication of what will happen once New Zealand opens for illiquid FX trade, it will be a risk off kinda day.

And that doesn't even take into account the pandemonium that will be unleashed in China in a few hours after the PBOC just went all-in to halt the crashing stock market. What if it fails to get a green close before tomorrow's US open?

Source: ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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