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Archive for the ‘Virtual Portfolio Review’ Category

PSW December Portfolio Reviews (Members Only)

RUT WEEKLYJust a quick post to summarize our four Member Portfolios.

As noted on Wendesday, we are well-balanced and very, very Cashy in our portfolios as we head into the end of the year.   We've made great profits and we're not sure which way the market will end up so, essentially, we're taking a defensive stance to lock in our virtual gains and, as you can see from Dave Fry's Russell Chart – we're certainly not missing anything as the broad-based indexes (NYSE as well) have been flatlining since October.

As noted on Thursday, our main portfolios, the Long-Term Portfolio, which is hedged with the Short-Term Portfolio began the year with a combined $600,000 ($500/100) and have been holding the $760,000-$785,000 range since November, when we parked our positions in neutral (balanced between bullish and bearish) into the holidays.  The two portfolios are up $179,000 for the year (29.8%) so of course we want to protect those gains!  

Short-Term Portfolio Review (STP):  Back to $165,000 (up 65%) after a scare on Tuesday as the SQQQs got priced really low, for no particular reason.  We'll have to consider if we are too bearish here, or perhaps simply not bullish enough in the LTP.  Remember, this portfolio isn't SUPPOSED to make money – it's here to protect the LTP – this is just a happy accident…

  • DXD – Why do we have so many of those?  We'll leave them this weekend but no point in rolling them since we have TZA for Jan protection. 
  • TZA – Speak of the devil.  Well, since we're killing the DXDs next week, TZA becomes our primary short-term hedge and I'm good with that with the RUT back at 1,180 and TZA is at $13 so the $13 calls at $1 start making money on an over 5% drop between now and Jan – that's what a hedge is supposed to do.  Yes, I know we bought them for $2 (and we lost $10K on the DXDs too) but that's just the cost of our insurance.  We need to forget about that and focus on the $5K we have in


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PSW October Portfolio Reviews (Members Only) – Final

SPX WEEKLYAnd we're back!  

Quite the recovery since last week so I figured we'd better take another look and go over our positions to make sure we're well-balanced.  We're UNbalanced in our recovery, with less volume and more height than we've had before.  Technically, we're looking bullish but, Fundamentally – there are still a lot of questions.  

We'll discuss outlook and such in the Member Chat Room over the weekend, this article is just to check our balances, not an extensive review like we had last week.  I'm on the way to Vegas today ahead of our Live Seminar next weekend (last chance to sign up), so I'm just going to note the items I think need adjusting this morning.

As an overview, last week our LTP was up 19.2% for the year at $596,170 and our STP was up 94% at $194,183 for a total of $790,353 (up 31.7% overall) following our aggressive strategy.  As of Friday's close, the LTP had climbed to 21.5% ($607,710 and the STP fell to 82.5% at $182,498 for a total of $790,208, essentially flat at 31.7%.  We turned more bearish on Wednesday and it may have cost us some gains but our aim into the end of the year is to lock in these profits, not "go for it."  

The more conservative Income Portfolio was up 2.4% last week and finished yesterday up 8.5% at $542,304.  Combined with the hedges in the Income Portfolio, that pairing is at $734,538, up 22.4% for the year and miles ahead of our 10% goal.

Our Butterfly Portfolio was as boring as its supposed to be, up 18.7% last week ($118,740) and up 18.1% today.  The $25,000 Portfolio slipped from $30,745 to $28,802 as we added two bearish plays that, so far, have not worked out.  

The reason we flipped more bearish this week was because we are back in the tops of our channels now AND we're heading into an election where, no matter who wins, half the people will be disappointed – that could lead to a small sell-off at least, along with a dozen other bad things that are going on in the world that we've decided to ignore again while the market engages in
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PSW October Portfolio Reviews (Members Only)

It seems we weathered that storm very well!  

As noted in our the last review of our virtual portfolios, BALANCE is the key to riding the market waves and we not only survived recent the 10% drop and 7% pop but we have thrived – with our Short-Term Porfolio holding onto a $94.2% gain (as of yesterday's close) and the Long-Term Portfolio back to 19.2% for the year, for a combined $790,353 off our $600,000 start – a combined 31.7% gain for the year!  

I would say it's time to cash out but we've already cashed out with the Short-Term Portfolio now sitting on $179,243 in cash (92%) and the LTP has $637,800 in cash, which is 107% of the portfolio's value.  That's because we've sold so much premium to others (our "Be the House" strategy) that it dwarfs the net value of our positions.  

Nonetheless, we're only using 34% of our $1M margin as these are, generally, conservative long-term positions.  We went into the weekend leaning very bearish in the STP, protecting our long gains in the LTP and Income Portfolios.  

  • CAKE – Was a disappointment as they lowered guidance on earnings on 6.3% more revenues and they lowered guidance to $2.07 from $2.25 – flat to last year.  Our mistake here was looking at the costs of food products like corn, wheat, etc for basic foodmaking but it was the cost of cream cheese that killed them on the food side.  Last year they topped out in the high $40s and now we are in the low $40s and I'm willing to go long on them but not appropriate for the STP – we'll look to cut this one loose next week.  
  • TNA (not shown) – We bought 25 Nov $63/67 bull call spread on 10/23 (morning post) and already sold the calls back on Friday – making us more bearish over the weekend.  If the market is up, we'll have to adjust these quickly. 
  • GMCR – Getting to be a white whale for us, the damned thing never goes down.  Earnings are 11/19 – I certainly want to see those.  
  • FAS – Part of the other


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PSW August Portfolio Reviews (Members Only)

Just a quick post to consolidate our virtual portfolio reviews for easy reference:

What we're stressing this year, above all else is our "BE THE HOUSE - Not the Gambler" strategy, in which we try to be the sellers, not buyers of options premium.  Another very key strategy we're practicing is BALANCE – our Income Portfolio is a very conservative retirement portfolio, aimed at generating a 10% annual income with as little risk as possible while our much more aggressive Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios balance each other – aiming for 20% annual gains.

Both sets are very much on track for their goals and, at this point, we're more concerned with protecting the profits we have than taking new risks but that doesn't stop us from adding prudent positions, especially as long as the market continues to make new weekly highs.  In fact, we just added an IRBT position to the LTP on Friday (not yet reflected in this update)!

Short-Term Portfolio Update (STP):  Back to $135,000 (up 35% for the year), that's a good sign as we were down to $125,000 earlier in the week so we gain $10K on a little dip means we're doing our job protecting the LTP.  You never really know if your mix is right until it's tested under pressure.  

  • CAKE – Well, I hate naked long calls but we bought back the short calls from this spread and this is what we're left with.  I'm not sure we'll get the pop we need if the indexes are dragging us down but there's also no particular reason to pull this trade so let's see what happens next week.  Our premise here is lower food costs = more profits. 
  • DXD – One of our anchor hedges, just out of the money at $24.54 with 42 days left.
  • GMCR – My white whale at this point.  Earnings not until mid-November.  
  • XLE – Persistently low oil prices will gradually break XLE down, 42 days left. 
  • XRT – We bought back the short puts here when it spiked up, I'm happy with these puts, hopefully we get $8+ as XRT heads back to $85.
  • CI, CMG, FB,


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The Buy List – 40 of the World’s Best Stock Values (Members Only)

INDU WEEKLYDon't you just love lists?   

Apparently, most American's do because the posts that get the most clicks are the ones with lists and quizzes.  I don't do lists very often yet, somehow, I still manage to be fairly popular but let's see what happens when I make a list with a catchy headline.

This list is an update of our original 2014 Buy List, which was written on June 6th and originlaly had 20 trade ideas for the 2nd half of the year.  That list quickly grew to 29 and, today, we're adding 11 more to make 40 top stock picks to take us into Q4.  Those first 29 picks are already  82% successful with only HOV, IRBT, RIG, TEX and WEN failing to make gains so far and, on average, we're up 72% on our picks in just 3 months.  

That's about par for the course with our winning percentages on trade ideas but what makes the Buy List special is that these are the ones we are comfortable committing long-term allocation blocks to, not just messing around with short-term trading.  In fact, our 5 "losers" all represent great entry opportunities at lower prices and none are being kicked off the list as our general outlook for these stocks is measured in years, not months!  

The strategy we are following is summed up nicely in this video:

As we did in building our Long-Term Portfolio, we're not going to rush in and buy everything.  We will do exactly what we did in January where, following our Fall Buy List, we simply added stocks from our list whenever they became cheap.  While our Members are able to pick up our trade ideas as they are released, we don't always add them to our virtual portfolios right away.  As with the first half's Long-Term Portfolio, we will track every entry and exit in both our Live Weekly Webcasts, as well as in our Live Member Chat Room and alerts will be sent to our subscribers (you can join here, Basic and Premium Members get full access).  

Our picks were originally grouped by industry sectors but, for reference purposes, I'm going to list them alphabetically below –
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Philstockworld Jolly June Trade Review – Part 1

What a month May was!  

Through May 23rd, we had 158 winning trade ideas against 29 that did not work out (as of the review) for an 84% winning percentage.  As usual, we begin our reviews with the last week of the previous month – even though the last week of May didn't overlap into June – as last weeks often do into the new month (which is why we do it). 

Still, 4 parts is plenty for one month, so it's time to move on!  Our Trade Reviews not only let us know if we're on or off track but, by putting the trades in context, hopefully we remind ourselves what works and what doesn't work in vartious situations so that, when we see a similar situation, we are ready, willing AND able to pull the trigger.    

As usual, we should never be at 100% because we WANT to have trades on both sides of the table (as hedges) and the profit or loss of the trades are as of today, so we look very closely at the LOSING trades – to see if we now have better entries than we had originally (assuming we still like our premise).

Monday, May 26th was a holiday, so we start this month off on a Tuesday:

May 27: Tempting Toppy Tuesday – 7th Time's a Charm?

Selling risk to others in our Member Portfolios has given us 10%+ gains for year (so far).  In fact, the only strategy we agreed with from the above chart was gold, which we bet heavily(along with DBA) at the beginning of the year. 

Remember, this isn't about making good picks, per se – it's about having a good strategy that gives you a high probability of success – even when you are wrong about a trade.   BEING THE HOUSE and selling risk (through options) to others is the closest thing we get to


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Philstockworld Merry May Trade Review – Part 4

SPX WEEKLYOur streak continues!  

The first 3 weeks of the month (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3) saw 142 trade ideas (almost 50 per week) with just 17 misses for an 88% win rate.  Of course – it's a bit like shooting fish in a barrel when we call a bottom correctly and, as you can tell from the large volume of picks, we put all that sidelined cash to good use.  

Not every call is bullish, of course, as I was saying in Friday's post, BALANCE is the most important aspect for your portfolios if you intend to be a trader for more than just the short run.  So, in theory, it shouldn't be possible for us to get to 100% and, actually, 88% probably means we were a little too bullish and just got lucky!  We have to watch out for that – and that's why these reviews are so important.

Our Trade Reviews not only let us know if we're on or off track but, by putting the trades in context, hopefully we remind ourselves what works and what doesn't work in vartious situations so that, when we see a similar situation, we are ready, willing AND able to pull the trigger.  

Able is a very important aspect of our trading strategies we tend to ignore.  My call to go to cash in late March left us with empty portfolios we were able to fill up in May and THAT is why we have such a fantastic winning percentage for the month – we made our selves READY and our mindset was WILLING because we were ABLE to take advantage of the market dip by going to cash.  

Just because we are long-term investors – it doesn't mean we can't time our entries and exits when we reach the tops and bottoms of our trading channels!  

May 17th:  How to Turn $25,000 into $500,000 in 15 Years 

This is one of the most important articles I've written in a long time.

It links back to our Webinar from that week,
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Philstockworld Merry May Trade Review – Part 3

What a month May was!  

So far, in the first two weeks (through the 9th), we had 94 Trade Ideas for our Members and all but 11 (88%) were winners (see Part 1 and Part 2).  Of course we use hedges, where we purposely bet the opposite direction in order to protect ourselves so it's not possible to be 100% and even 88% is strange – usually we're aiming for around 66%.  

The trick isn't to be right ALL the time, but to control your losses so they don't counteract the gains.  Usually, we go for trades that have a good chance of paying 200% or more within 18 months so we EXPECT to make 10% a month or more.  When those work, we get huge wins – if we then keep our losses to 20% (of our allocation) or less – the statistics take care of themselves as +20%, -20%, +60%, -20%, 0% on 5 trades (for example) gives you 5 allocations that made an average of 8%.

When one of those allocations goes up 100%, you don't even need to get half of them right to have a winner – but ONLY if you control your losses AND maintain consistent allocations.  That's what we practice in our Long-Term Potfolios – PORTION CONTROL!  

By scaling into positions (something else we practice with our Members in our Long-Term Portfolios), even if we lose 100% of our initial position – it's generally only about 20% of an allocation.  Since we can't lose more than 20% of an allocation and we usually try to make 200% or more on the cash we lay out for our long-term trades (which nets 40% or more for a winning allocation) – again, math does its work over time.

That being said, let's have a look at how week 3 went in May:

May 12: Just Another Manic Monday

While investors may not have learned anything from the last crash, the Banksters have learned that you can manipulate just a few key,


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The Buy List – 20 Great Trade Ideas for the Rest of 2014 (Members Only)

INDU WEEKLYWhat a rally!  

While stocks certainly aren't "cheap" by any measure, we've been able to identify 20 that are still good values.  We've been compiling this list and going over trade ideas for playing them in our Tuesday Webinars since May 13th and, of course, we've been posting them in our Live Member Chat rooms, so this is just a review to consolidate our trade ideas.  

We cashed in our Long-Term Portfolio last week at what we thought was a top but so far – so wrong on that call!  Since it's up 19% in just 6 months, we're not going to cry about missing the last 400-point move on the Dow (2.5%) – we'll just have to look ahead to deploying our cash again, following the same strategy that was so successful in the first half of the year, which was, essetially, our "7 Steps to Consistently Making 20-40% Annual Returns" system:

As we did in building our Long-Term Portfolio, we're not going to rush in and buy everything.  We will do exactly what we did in January where, following our Fall Buy List, we simply added stocks from our list whenever they became cheap.  While our Members are able to pick up our trade ideas as they are released, we don't always add them to our virtual portfolios right away.  As with the first half's Long-Term Portfolio, we will track every entry and exit in both our Live Weekly Webcasts, as well as in our Live Member Chat Room and alerts will be sent to our subscribers (you can join here, Basic and Premium Members get full access).  

Our picks were originally grouped by industry sectors but, for reference purposes, I'm going to list them alphabetically below – these are the original trade ideas (the Webinar dates where we discussed our picks are next to the symbol), most are still playable but some have already taken off :

ABX (5/28) we featured in our June 3rd post - obviously one I like.  If you don't want to buy the stock for $15.90 (and we NEVER pay retail at PSW!), then you can sell the 2016 $15 puts for $2.05,
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PSW Trade Review Part 2 – Thank You Sir, MAY I Have Another!

May got off to a fantastic start

In our first week alone (see Part 1) we had 47 trade ideas between our morning posts and our Live Member Chat room and, already, 42 of them (89%) are winners.  Keep in mind the main purpose of these trade reviews is to look at the LOSERS and see if perhaps we have a better entry opportunity than we had before.  

We missed on SDS (ultra-short S&P) but that was a hedge and we are still using it into June. We missed on PNRA and that's just a better opportunity to get in.   We missed on TWTR and we already doubled down on that one and already cashed out with a profit in our Long-Term Portfolio (see our other review), not because we don't still like it but because we went to cash on our Long-Term Porfolio, since it was up 19% in 6 months and we decided to sit out the summer correction in CASH!!! 

We don't know if our timing is perfect getting back to cash but even if we finish the whole year with the $98,430 gain we have now (out of $500,000) in the Long-Term Porfolio – we've certainly done our job.  Can we do better?  Of course we can – that's why we do these reviews – to see what's going right and what's going wrong so we can make adjustments along the way.

If CASH!!! turns out to be a mistake, then we can re-deploy it – that's not complicated, is it?  I know that, as a trader, you feel like you are SUPPOSED to trade – especially those of us who are retired and, if we're not trading – we get kind of bored.  

Well, we had 11 new trade ideas this Wednesday and Thursday alone (summarized in Friday's post) AFTER we went to cash – so it's not like we died, we just took adavantage of a positive turn in our portfolio to realize our virtual profits.  After all, they aren't really profits until you take them off the table!   Good poker players learn that the hard way…


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Zero Hedge

Two NYPD Cops Murdered In "Execution Style" Ambush, Shooter Commits Suicide - Live Coverage

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The simmering cold war involving the NYPD and various elements of New York's population just went nuclear when a little before 3:00 PM, reports hit that two NYPD officers were shot in their patrol car, and subsequently died, in what has been dubbed an "execution style" ambush in Brooklyn's Bed-Stuy area. The alleged shooter was chased by police and subsequently died of a self-inflicted gun wound.

Two Police Officers have been shot in the 79 pct. please pray for them

— NYPD 121st Precinct (@NYPD121Pct) December 20, 2014

According to ...



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Phil's Favorites

Evolution of YouTube: Will it Supplant Mainstream TV, Vanish, Evolve, or Languish?

Courtesy of Mish.

What will become of YouTube?

It started from nowhere about 10 years ago as an idea with no revenue and no content, then pretty quickly lots of content coupled with a plethora of copyright infringement lawsuits.

Today, YouTube gets 300 million hours of watching every day. Top content producers have millions of followers and make millions of dollars.

But where to from here?

New Play Button

The New York Times tackles that question in a fascinating story YouTube’s Chief, Hitting a New ‘Play’ Button.

The article is about Susan Wojcicki, the chief executive of YouTube, how she got her start, and in turn how Google got its s...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage On Twitter, Believes Stock Is Appropriately Priced At Current Levels

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Analysts at Oppenheimer initiated coverage of Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR) Friday by issuing a Perform rating and setting a $36.00 price target. Twitter is a global social networking platform with over 280 million active users.

The Numbers

While Oppenheimer analysts fully recognize the strength in Twitter as a company, they believe that Twitter’s stock is appropriately priced at current levels. “While TWTR is the best Internet platform for real-time content discovery, we believe that the stock’s current valuation of 10x 2015E sales, a 52% premium to peers, fully reflects future prospects based on current growth rates.”

Insider Dumping

Between November and December 2014, Twitter insiders have sold more than $...



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Chart School

Relief Bounce in Markets

Courtesy of Declan.

Those who took advantage of markets at Fib levels were rewarded.  However, this looked more a 'dead cat' style bounce than a genuine bottom forming low.  This can of course change, and one thing I will want to see is narrow action near today's high. Volume was a little light, but with Christmas fast approaching I would expect this trend to continue.

The S&P inched above 2,009, but I would like to see any subsequent weakness hold the 38.2% Fib level at 1,989.


The Nasdaq offered itself more as a support bounce, with a picture perfect play off its 38.2% Fib level. Unlike the S&P, volume did climb in confirmed accumulation. The next upside c...

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Digital Currencies

Chart o' the Day: Don't "Invest" in Stupid Sh*t

Joshua commented on the QZ article I posted a couple days ago and perfectly summarized the take-home message into an Investing Lesson. 

Chart o’ the Day: Don’t “Invest” in Stupid Sh*t

Courtesy of 

The chart above comes from Matt Phillips at Quartz and is a good reminder of why you shouldn’t invest in s...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of December 15th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Energy sector rains on bulls' parade, but skies may clear soon

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stocks have needed a reason to take a breather and pull back in this long-standing ultra-bullish climate, with strong economic data and seasonality providing impressive tailwinds -- and plummeting oil prices certainly have given it to them. But this minor pullback was fully expected and indeed desirable for market health. The future remains bright for the U.S. economy and corporate profits despite the collapse in oil, and now the overbought technical condition has been relieved. While most sectors are gathering fundamental support and our sector rotation model remains bullish, the Energy sector looks fundamentally weak and continues to ran...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

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Option Review

SPX Call Spread Eyes Fresh Record Highs By Year End

Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...



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Market Shadows

Official Moves in the Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio

By Ilene 

I officially bought 250 shares of EZCH at $18.76 and sold 300 shares of IGT at $17.09 in Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio yesterday (Fri. 11-21).

Click here for Thursday's post where I was thinking about buying EZCH. After further reading, I decided to add it to the virtual portfolio and to sell IGT and several other stocks, which we'll be saying goodbye to next week.

Notes

1. th...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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