Archive for the ‘Virtual Portfolio Review’ Category

PSW August Portfolio Review

$2 MILLION Dollars.  

Well, actually it's $1,960,061 but that's still up 326% from our $600,000 start in our paired Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios since their inception on 11/26/13.  We're "only' up $440,607 (29%) in 13 months (see our July, 2016 portfolio review) as, even at that time, I wondered "Are We Too Bullish".  

The S&P was at 2,120 last July and now at 2,425 so up 14% which means we're outperforming the S&P by 100% so I certainly don't think we've become too bearish, we've simply tapered our 40%+ annual growth of the first 3 years in favor of spending more money on hedges – to lock in these ridiculous gains.  

And they are ridiculous.  As I noted on Friday, there isn't enough money in the World, nor are the Central Banks printing money fast enough to pay everyone 40% annual gains.  In fact, if you start with $600,000 and make 40% a year for just 10 years, that's $17.3 MILLION!  So, I will ask you again, do you think it's likely or unlikely we continue along this path?

No, that would be silly, right?  No matter how confident we are in our own abilities to make money, we have to recognize that this is a unique market situation that is inherently unsustainable.  It's a lot like catching a really good wave while you are surfing – we're good surfers and we will take full advantage of it but you can't fool yourself into betting the next wave will be even bigger, and the one after that and the one after that – it's simply not how the universe works.

Of course, we know what's causing these giant wavers – Central Bank Policies – but then we have to consider if those are sustainable and, as you can see from the rate chart – the amount of money they need to pump into the system begins to grow exponentially to sustain these asset gains.  We started with $600,000 but the S&P 500 is now at about $21Tn alone so it will cost SOMEONE $8Tn to add 40% to it.  The entire GDP of the United States is $18.5Tn and is growing at MAYBE 3%, which is $242Bn – far shy of…
continue reading





PhilstockWorld May Portfolio Review (Members Only)

$1,800,221 – that's up 300% from our $600,000 start on our paired portfolios back on 11/26/13.

We haven't made too many changes in the past 30 days but we still gained a very nice $47,535 since the April Review ($1,752,686) on our paired Long and Short-Term portfollios.  While $47,535 is 8% of our original, it's "only" 2.7% of our April total so yes, we are playing a bit too conservatively for this market – despite putting up some very impressive numbers.  

The S&P 500 was at 2,360 on April 9th and now 2,433, so it's up 3.1%, which means we're now one of those funds that is underperforming the S&P 500, right?  But that's not the purpose of our portfolio strategy – clearly we outperform the S&P over the long haul and that's because our hedges keep us (mostly) from losing money in the downturns.  Being safe from downturns has a price though, when the market is gaining at an 18% annualized pace – we aim for a more conservative average than that.

Since April 9th, we've added new longs on ABX, DIN, EWZ, IMAX, SEE, SKT, TLRD and VZ and, if you are having trouble recognizing some of the symbols – well that's my point – we're running out of cheap stocks to buy at these days, so we either have to drink the Kool-Aid and buy high and hope to sell higher or we can wait PATIENTLY for a pullback that gives us better entries on better stocks.  

Going back to last July's review, when at S&P 2,120 I asked "Are We Too Bullish?", we were at $1,519,454 so we're up about 20% from that total but keep in mind we still trade the LTP like it's a $500,000 portfolio with 80% of our money in CASH!!! and gaining $300,000 on $500,000 is 60% – that's why our growth is slowing now, the way we're plaing it, 20% a year is just fine!  The key is to learn how to CONSISTENTLY get those 20% returns, so they can compound over time.  $500,000 compounded at 20% for 20 years is $19,168,799 – that should be enough to paper anyone's retirement, right?

The trick is to
continue reading





Philstockworld Top Trade Review

Image result for top trade ideasTop Trades has become one of Philstockworld's most popular Memberships and that's a shame because I actually hate trading services that just give out trade ideas.  Unfortunately, that's what the market demands and, though Top Trade Members miss out on the trading education and deep discussions we have in our Live Member Chat Room, they usually do get a lot of great trades.

We began Top trades in August of 2015 and year one saw 96 out of 119 Trade Ideas (80.6%) made money immediately (by the first review) and half of the intial losers turned around over time as well.  As of our prior review, covering Sept-Dec, we had 22 of 30 trade ideas (73%) in the green already but, for example, one of our "losers" was RH – a trade that was in our Long-Term Portfolio:

As of the last review, we only had the short puts, which were down $1,400 (23%) so a "loser:" and, at the time (2/20), I said:

As you can see, they hit our target floor at $25 but we were in Vegas and forgot to add the bull call spread at the time – though I still like the plan.  The puts, by themselves, are now $7.40 ($7,400) so down $1,400 (23%) and I still like that sale along with 10 2019 $25 calls $9.75 ($9,750), selling 10 of the $35 calls for $6.20 ($6,200) for $3,550 so we still have a net $2,450 credit (or a $3,850 credit if starting from scratch) and our worst case is owning RH at net $22.55 – 16% below the current price.  That's an official add for our LTP!  

Obviously, the situation has much improved, despite the recent pullback.  The short 2019 $25 puts are down to $4.10 ($4,100) and the 2019 $25/35 bull call spread is in the money at $7 ($7,000) for net $2,900, up $5,350 (218%) from our original net $2,450 credit and well on the way to making the full $10,000 (still a good trade if you can settle for a double).  

The secret to
continue reading





Philstockworld April Portfolio Review (Members Only)

What a first quarter!  

When we last reviewed, back on Jan 22nd, the S&P closed at 2,271 and we were generally playing for a flat market and worried that we might be a bit too bearish but, now that the S&P is at 2,362 (up 4%), we're a lot more comfortable with a more bearish stance – albeit after adding a few bullish positions along the way.  

Before we get into a review I want to make a very important point.  Our Options Opportunity Portfolio (OOP) was last reviewed on March 15th, and it's a self-contained portfolio, with the hedges right alongside the long-term positions.  As I've noted on many occasions, when you have a well-balanced portfolio and you are practicing our system of BEING THE HOUSE – Not the Gambler, you shouldn't have to do much from month to month (see last year's Forbes interview for a good explanation).

We did add 4 bullish trades in the last two weeks (ATI, CDE, CHK & NLY) and, on the 15th, we called for 2 of our positions to be adjusted and one was closed (SONC) – that's it.  On March 15th our OOP was at $270,475 and, as of Friday's close, we're at $278,177 – up $7,702, which is 7.7% of our original $100,000 start (8/8/15) and that's just fine for two week's "work", isn't it?

Related imageInvesting doesn't have to be stressful – certainly not if you are on the house side of the table.  Mostly it's a matter of keeping ourselves well-balanced and letting the premiums we sold run down over time – that's what casinos do and they seem to do very well for themselves!  

You just need to accept the fact that betting on the markets is no better than betting on casino games – you may win or you may lose but, over time, the odds are rigged against you – especially with options so, logically, if we SELL options to suckers who think they can beat the house – we'll do very well!  That's it – that's the whole secret to our success.

Our last major Portfolio Review was back on Jan 22nd and, since
continue reading





Philstockworld 2017 Watch List – 24 Stocks to Keep Our Eye On

Image result for stocks to watchTwo weeks ago we began compiling our 2017 Watch List.

A Watch List is not a Buy List, a Watch List is a list of stocks we'd LIKE to buy – IF they get cheaper.  Of course that's true of every stock but these are stocks we consider good values where they are now and are ALMOST cheap enough for us to want to get in and we want to be ready when they do give us a good entry – so we watch them!  

I like the Finviz charts because they constantly update, so any time you refresh this post, the charts will be updated to the day.  I've also put dates on the last round of picks because we've had a lot of movement since 2/17 and some of the stocks have gone higher (we are not chasting) and a couple have gotten cheaper and those we are likely to move on. 

The trading notes are the best idea we have AT THE TIME the stock is added to our list – our goal is to get a BETTER trade set-up than the one we highlight, NOT the one we are discussing – those are for reference purposes.  For example, Target (TGT) took a nice dive on earnings and are much cheaper now ($57.35) than the $65.55 we were watching them at.  $55 was our target for short puts but NOW you can sell the 2019 $55 puts for $7.25, $2 (40%) better than they were pre-earnings.

Even better, we can collect the $5.20 we wanted by selling the 2019 $50 puts and we will sell 10 of those in the LTP (buying back our 5 short Jan $67.50 puts) and now we can add 10 2019 $55 ($7.60)/65 ($3.60) bull call spreads for $4 which, as a new trade, is a net credit of $1.20 per contract ($1,200) which means the worst case is owning TGT for net $48.80 – THOSE are the kind of trades we love to be in!  

"The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble…We want to buy


continue reading





Philstockworld Top Trade Review

Image result for top trade ideasThe pressure is on!  

Top Trades has become one of Philstockworld's most popular Memberships and that's a shame because I actually hate trading services that just give out trade ideas.  Unfortunately, that's what the market demands and, though Top Trade Members miss out on the trading education and deep discussions we have in our Live Member Chat Room, they usually do get a lot of great trades.

That is, until September they did!  In our first year of Top Trades, beginning in August of 2015, 96 out of 119 Trade Ideas (80.6%) were immediate winners and half of the initial losers turned around over time and became winners as well.  Perhaps it was shooting fish in a barrel in a bull market.  Unfortunately, our second year got off to a rough start, with just 7 of our 16 ideas in September and October winning by Dec 10th (we have to give them some time before reviewing).  Of those 9 losing trades:

  • ERIC is improved but still red
  • TEVA has not improved
  • MON is now a winner 
  • CMG is a home run
  • SGYP is a huge winner
  • LL got worse
  • TASR is now a winner 
  • TWTR still in the red 
  • JO was a winner but now a loser again (wild swings) 

So 4 of our 5 losers are now winners and these are long-term trades, for the most part – it's not like we can expect every one to win immediately.  The point is that these reviews are simply initial snapshots to see how we're doing – in case our trade need adjustments in their early stages – they are far from the final word on these trades.  In this month's review, we will pick up in November and review the next two months.  

The secret to our success in Top Trades is PATIENCE!!! Patience is the hardest thing we try to teach our Members at Philstockworld as it tends to take years of practice and the nice thing about the Top Trades Membership is that you don't have a choice – we make
continue reading





Philstockworld January Portfolio Review

Image result for new year 2017 stock marketWe're off to a great start!  

Only 20 days into the new year and, since our last review, all 4 of our Member Portfolios have added substantial gains as our bets on a flatlining market are paying off:

  • Our Options Opportunity Portfolio (OOP) is up $9,352 (9.3%), at $246,577, which is up 148.6% since its 8/8/15 inception – our newest portfolio.
  • Our Butterfly Portfolio is up $7,816 (7.8%) at $331,408, which is up 231.4% since its 7/29/13 inception.  
  • Our Short-Terrm Portfolio (STP) is up $9,222 (9%) at $484,298 which is up 375.1% since its 11/26/13 inception.
  • Our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) has jumped 29,649 (6%) to $1,209,372, which is up 141.9% since its 11/26/13 inception.  

In addition to our 4 virtual tracking portfolios, we also have our Top Trade Ideas, which do not go into a portfolio but I will do a review of those next week.  For the first time ever, our last two Top Trade Ideas were hedges – that should tell you something about my mindset for the market going forward.  

Image result for cash jokerAll of our Member portfolios are 75-90% CASH!!! at the moment and using 1/4-1/2 margin – leaving us plenty of room to adjust if the market does turn sour – something I feel is very likely to happen in the next two months and yes, I know I've said this before but, really, how much over our 2,100 top call on the S&P are we?  It's at 2,262, so we're 162 points over what I called a value top and that's 7.7% but, in fairness, the Dollar is down 3% and that explains most of it.

The rest of the pop comes from runaway expections from the Trump Presidency and yes, he will lower the Corporate Tax Rate but Corporations only pay 12% on avergage now – how low can they really go?  More pop came from the Banking Sector, where deregulation expections have added 20% to that index but we saw what deregulated Banks did to themselves under Bush – why is that a good thing?  And, of course, rising oil prices have boosted the Energy
continue reading





Philstockworld 2017 Portfolio Review – Looking Back at 2016

Image result for new year 2017 stock marketHappy New Year! 

It's been a fantastic year for our primary, paired portflios with the Short-Term Portfolio finishing 2016 at $475,076 (up 375%) while our Long-Term Portfolio came in Friday at $1,179,723 (up 136%) for a grand total of $1,654,766, a gain of $1,154,766 (192%) from our $600,000 start back on 11/26/13.  We're up $109,345 since our pre-election review on 11/6 - that's 10% in two months and, into December options expirations, we cashed in some more winners, bringing us to over $900,000 in cash (80%) into the holidays, a position we call "Cashy and Cautious".  

On the whole, 2016 went about as well as expected.  Last December, our paired portfolios stood at $1,004,162 so we've added 65% in 2016 and we were, fortunately, Cashy and Cautious into last January too because we were able to take full advantage of the Q1 correction in 2016.  I strongly urge going over our early 2016 positions – most of them are still in our portfolios and the ones that changed make for an interesting watch list like ANTM, BHI, BID, BP, CHL, CIM, ECA, INTC, KORS, MYL, RIG, STWD, SWKS, TGT, WFM, WYNN – to name a few.

Image result for value investingOur value-oriented strategies dictate we get out of even the best stocks when they become over-priced but that doesn't mean we don't want to get back into them when they calm down!  Value investing is all about patience, even when we like a stock, we still prefer to scale into the position – just in case we're a bit early…  They also dictate we regularly review and contemplate our positions and, when necessary, sit on the sidelines.  

Our two smaller portfolios are self-hedging but also with a good deal of cash on the side in this very uncertain market.  Our Options Opportunity Portfolio closed out the year at $237,225 (up 137%) and that's up $131,739 (132%) from $105,486 in our 12/7/15 review.  That portfolio only began on August 8th of 2015 and we got off to a rough start but more than made up for it in 2016.  Finally, our Butterfly Portfolio came in at $338,224 (up 238%) and that's a gain of $157,149…
continue reading





Philstockworld Top Trade Review

Wow, what a market!  

When we left off our last Top Trade Review, we had just completed our first year of Top Trades with 119 trade ideas sent out by alert and, as of our reviews (we don't track them otherwise), 96 (80.6%) of them were winners.  How can we have 96 winners out of 119 in a year?  Well, for one thing our Top Trades are generally bullish and it's been a good year for the bulls and, for another thing, because we utilize our very excellent system of "Being the House – NOT the Gambler" and using options to hedge our positions and sell premium.

The other secret to our success in Top Trades is PATIENCE!!! Patience is the hardest thing we try to teach our Members at Philstockworld as it tends to take years of practice and the nice thing about the Top Trades Membership is that you don't have a choice – we make our picks ONLY when we see a nice opportunity and if that's once a week, twice a week or just once a month – we don't care – we only make picks that have excellent chances of making a profit – 80% chances going by our first year's performance…

Of course, when you are reading our reviews, those losing trades are often still great opportunities as we're long-term VALUE investors and it's a bit arbitrary when we do a review whether or not our idea has caught on yet. Our last review was on Oct 22nd and, at the time, we still liked Chipotle (CMG), which has since popped 10%, Chicago Bridge and Iron (CBI), which is now up 20%, Pearson (PSO), which gained 10% and S&P Ultra-Shorts (SDS) as a hedge, which is down 10% (as expected if the longs are winning).  

So here we are, 6 weeks later and 3 of our 4 losers (75%) have turned into winners already – who says picking stocks is hard?  With that being said, let's see how September and October's pics panned out and remember – keep an eye on the losers!  

Top Trade Alerts come from…
continue reading





Philstockworld November Portfolio Review – BALANCE!

$1,545,421! 

That's up $945,421 (157%) in just under 3 years (11/26/2013) from our original $600,000 allocation on our paired portfolios.  We are, however, down $27,008 (1.7%) from our September high (reviewed 9/30) and that's just fine as our portfolios are about 80% CASH!!! and very defensive into the election uncertainty.  When you make 157% in 3 years, you need to know how to protect it.

We're well ahead of the market, the S&P was at 2,180 on the close of Sept 2nd and Friday we closed at 2,085 so down 95 points is 4.3% and falling at less than 1/2 the rate of the market is all we can hope for when we have so many leveraged positions.  Of course, some of our bigger hedges don't kick in until the market is down more than 5% and, depending on the outcome of Tuesday's election – we may be seeing that and much more.  

Other than our paired Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios (and the STP is 20% of the LTP and it's main function is to protect our Long-Term positions), our two self-hedging portfolios are doing surprisingly well.  Our $100,000 Options Opportunity Portfolio finished the week at $211,332 and that's up $111,332 (111%) in one year and 3 months since we began it.  In our September 3rd Review, the OOP was at $189,027 so we've gained $22,105 in two months – not bad with hardly any changes.

Finally, our steadiest and oldest portfolio, the Butterfly Portfolio, finished the week at $296,092, up $196,092 from our $100,000 start on 7/29/13.  That's up $8,212 since our 9/3 review and that's exactly what the Butterfly Portfolio is designed to do, grind out a steady income in virtually all market conditions.  

The Butterfly Portfolio is very low-touch, fantastic for retired investors who don't want to watch the market every day – or every week for that matter.  In fact, no new positions were added in the last two months – only adjustments the existing positions, made once a month ahead of option expirations.  

PSW Members can access the full portfolio and positions HERE.



continue reading





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Norway Wealth Fund Assets Surge To Over $1 Trillion On Massive 70% Allocation To Equities

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last December we joked that the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund had responded to sinking returns and withdrawals required to fund budget deficits by allocating another $130 billion in assets to what appeared to be an already massively overpriced equity bubble in return for an extra 40bps of "expected average annual real returns." (see: Norway Buying $130 Billion In Global Equities As Sovereign...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

In Wake of Slumping Car Sales, Ford Will Idle 5 North American Plants: What? No Hurricane Bounce?

Courtesy of Mish.

As initially reported by the Census Department, motor vehicle sales were 1.2% in July following a 0.9% gain in June. At the time, I commented, “This is unbelievably bizarre in the face of actual auto sales reports.”

The Census Bureau revised sales estimates much lower in September as noted in Retail Sales Unexpectedly Decline, Huge Negative Revisions in June and July: Reflections on “Bizarre” Sales Reports.

Today we learn ...



more from Ilene

Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrency Concentration - Just 4% Own Over 95% Of Bitcoin

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin has been making a lot of news lately. The cryptocurrency shot up in value by over 200% in 2017, making many people fear that the market is in a bubble. Last week, China...



more from Bitcoin

Chart School

Minor Changes: Yesterday's and Weekend Comments Remain Valid

Courtesy of Declan.

I don't want to overplay today's action as little changed in the broader scheme of things. Days like today are welcomed and help shape up swing trades for those trading in near term timeframes.

The tight doji in the S&P could be used for a swing trade; buy a break of the high/short loss of low - stop on flip side. High whipsaw risk but look for 3:1 risk:reward and maybe trail stops if deciding to go with partial profits.


Tech averages are still set up for a breakout. While not an ...

more from Chart School

ValueWalk

FBN Beats CNBC Even During Delivering Alpha Week

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Fox Business Network ratings for the week of September 11th – September  15th.  FBN beat CNBC even during their big annual Delivering Alpha Conference which is one of the biggest investment conferences of the year with Lou Dobbs leading the pack – another big win for FBN – see more details below

FOX BUSINESS NETWORK SWEEPS CNBC IN BUSINESS DAY FOR EIGHTH TIME THIS YEAR

]]> Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your de...



more from ValueWalk

Insider Scoop

Considering Implications For Hasbro And Mattel From The Toys 'R' Us Bankruptcy

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related HAS Toy Stocks Mostly Lower After Toys 'R' Us Confirms Bankruptcy Watch These 8 Huge Put Purchases In Tuesday Trade ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Members' Corner

"Citron Exposes Ubiquiti Networks"

What do you think?

"CITRON EXPOSES UBIQUITI NETWORKS" 

Does Ubiquiti Networks (NASDAQ:UBNT) actually have real products that sell to consumers? Of course! So did Valeant and WorldCom, but that does not stop its financials from having every indication of being completely fraudulent.

Citron will detail a series of alarming red flags and detail how Ubiquiti Networks is deceiving the investing public.

Read the full report here.

...

more from Our Members

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Biotech

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Courtesy of Rachel ShafferUniversity of Washington

Assessing the data. LightField Studios/shutterstock.com

Toxicology’s founding father, Paracelsus, is famous for proclaiming that “...



more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



more from M.T.M.

Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



more from Promotions

Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



more from Kimble C.S.

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>