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Archive for the ‘Virtual Portfolio Review’ Category

Dividend Investing – Giving Yourself an Automatic Edge (Members Only)

In uncertain markets, dividends can give you a critical investing edge.

As you can see from the chart on the left, just mindlessly investing in dividend-paying stocks can give you more than a 2:1 annual advantage in your investments and that adds up to quite a difference over time

Of course, here at PSW, we teach the art of selling options premiums – something that turns virtually any stock into a "dividend" payer.  For example, MSFT is only a small, 3.3% dividend-payer but a fairly solid cash-machine of a stock that we don't feel is likely to go bankrupt overnight so it makes for a nice safe staple in a long-term virtual portfolio.  But MSFT is also a very poorly-run company that hasn't grown in 20 years but we can make it a much more interesting stock by simply selling covered calls.

For example, we buy MSFT for $27.70 and we sell the Jan $27 calls for $1.28.  This lowers our effective basis to $26.42 and selling the call puts us in no special danger – we are simply agreeing to sell MSFT for $27 on expiration day in January (the 18th).  Should the stock be called away from us, we make a .56 profit or 2.1% of our net $26.42 cash investment in just 54 days.  That works out to a 14.2% annualized ROI and, even if we get called away, we can simply buy the stock again and again and sell calls every month.  Of course, you can optimize all this with timing and we favor stocks that are on sale – this is just a very simple example of how our most basic options strategy can drastically boost your annual returns on any stock in your portfolio.

Let's say you don't want to mess around with MSFT every month.  You can simply sell the 2015 $28s for $3.35 that drops your net entry from $27.70 to $24.35 and getting called away at $28 would be a profit of 14.9% over 26 months PLUS you would be getting your .92 annual dividend so let's call it $1.84 more for a total profit (if MSFT holds $28) of $5.49 or 22.5% – 1% a month certainly beats what the banks are offering these days!  Not as sexy as the 17.5% annual ROI you make by working the trade every month (with the dividend), but you do get a built-in cushion that…
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Income Portfolio – Still Selling in May and Going Away

Last month, we decided we were going to sell in May and go away in our special update (regular update was here). 

We had turned bearish on the market by the 12th, perhaps a little early but it gave us plenty of time to make good exits and get our prices.  Since our Income Portfolio was running 100% ahead of schedule and more like 250% counting the unrealized gains from our buy/writes as the market zoomed higher on us, we decided it would be good to go back to cash – especially as it would be fun to build a brand new Income Portfolio for 2012 that our newer Members will be able to benefit from following as well as it is, by far, our most popular virtual portfolio.

We're not cashing it all out as some positions still need to run their courses, but we won't be upset to be cashed out on some so we covered conservatively in anticipation of the pullback that just began last week.  We had $97,716 in realized (albeit virtual) gains as of our March 10th update – not bad after 10 months with a $500K portfolio that was only looking to take out $4,000 a month!   

This is the kind of set-up that my Mom and many of her friends need to do to supplement their not very generous Social Security checks but it's also using the same principle that applies to any long-term wealth-building strategy, utilizing our best long-term growth strategies combined with a concentration on generating an income collecting dividends and selling short-term options to create our own "dividend" stream on ordinary stocks.  Please see previous posts in our Virtual Portfolio section for our main strategy discussions – this is just an update. 

This month was unusual as we had quite a few action items, mostly per the Special Update, the following positions were closed:

  • 10 GE Jan $17.50 puts sold for $2.10, closed at now $1.30 – up $800
  • 20 RIMM 2014 $22 puts at net $3.52, closed at $10.10 – down $13,160
  • 3,000 NLY .55 dividend paid on 3/28 – up $1,650
  • 10 TITN March $22.50 puts sold for $4.50, expired worthless – up $4,500
  • 1,500 NYB at net $8.70, out at $10 – up $1,950
  • 10 TM Jan $62.50 calls bought for $6.50 ($6,500), out at $23.20 – up $16,700
  • 1,000 CSCO .08


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Income Portfolio Moves – Selling in May and Going Away

Now that I've slept on it, I want to raise cash

As I mentioned in yesterday's update, we are very bullish, perhaps too bullish in our Income Portfolio and we are also 100% ahead of schedule and more like 250% counting the gains from our buy/writes, some of which are well in the money.  Since we aren't thrilled with the overall economic picture and, since we're supposed to be learning new techniques and, since I think it's time to start a fresh Income Portfolio anyway, let's go through our positions and learn how to sell in May and go away with style.

We're not purposely cashing it all out but we won't be upset to be cashed out on some – and I'm sure you'll see why.  I'm going to comment on every position with red highlights for action items, we'll start with our short puts:

  • 20 HCBK July $9 puts sold for $1.45 (-$2,900), now $2.10 – down $1,300
  • 1,000 HCBK at net $6.83, now $6.79 – .08 dividend expected 5/8 ($80)
    • HCBK is now $6.79 and we essentially own them for $9.  They pay a .32 dividend and we already have 1,000 shares uncovered so let's sell 20 July $7 calls for .30 ($600).  If we're over $7, then we lose our current 1,000 shares (but get paid $7) and we'll have 10 short calls to roll into July, where anything between $7 and $9 is an improvement to our current short puts.  
  •  10 GE Jan $17.50 puts sold for $2.10 (-$2,100), now $1.38 – up $720
    • I don't see GE popping $20 very easily but let's cash these puts in and sell 15 April $19 puts and calls for .99 to raise $1,485 that will expire in April.  As we're willing to own GE long-term, either being forced to roll the puts or forced to buy stock to cover (with $2,195 already in our pocket) is


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Income Portfolio March Update – EZ Money!

Who says we're not bullish?

It's interesting how many people think we're bearish just because we talk about the problems in the economy and just because we don't buy into the market hype.  Yes, short-term, we expect a correction and so far – so wrong on that one but, long-term, I don't think we have ANY bearish plays and our largest portfolio, our virtual income portfolio, is 100% bullish (with hedges) and has been since day one.

As of Friday, our $25,000 Portfolio was down $7,500 for the year.  That's not good but that portfolio is supposed to be the aggressive carve-out of a more conservative $250,000-$500,000 portfolio like our income portfolio, which is long-term bullish and doing extremely well.   How well?  Up $73,792 in our first 9 months is an average of $8,199 per month generated off a conservatively invested $500,000 and double our goal of pulling a $4,000 monthly income without digging into our principal.  

This is the kind of set-up that my Mom and many of her friends need to do to supplement their not very generous Social Security checks but it's also using the same principle that applies to any long-term wealth-building strategy, utilizing our best long-term growth strategies combined with a concentration on generating an income collecting dividends and selling short-term options to create our own "dividend" stream on ordinary stocks.  Please see previous posts in our Virtual Portfolio section for our main strategy discussions – this is just an update. 

 

Prior to making our moves, we had $87,042 of realized gains (positions we had cashed in) against $13,250 of unrealized losses for a $73,792 net gain in our 9th month so averaging a bit better than $8,000 a month and, as I said above, well ahead of schedule. The following positions were closed since then:

  • 20 DIA Feb $120 puts sold for $1.60, expired worthless – up $3,200
  • 20 SDS Feb $18 calls sold for .98, expired worthless – up $1,960
  • 2,000 shares of AGNC paid a $1.25 dividend on 3/5 – up $2,500
  • 3,000 shares of FTR paid a .10 dividend on 3/7 – up $300
  • 1,000 shares of HCBK paid a .08 dividend on 3/8 – up $80
  • 5,000 shares of SVU paid a .088 dividend on 2/28 – up $440
  • 500 shares of MT paid a .188 dividend on 2/16 –


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Income Portfolio Feb Update – The Joy of Nothing

Nothing!

Not one move since expiration day and that's the way uh-huh, uh-huh we like it in our virtual retirement portfolio because, when we actually retire – who the hell wants to have to work – even when that job is simply pushing a couple of buttons on a computer screen once in a while?  Our long-term outlook has been bullish since we began this portfolio last April and we did nothing when the S&P fell 300 points and we did nothing now that it's back up 300 points – to about where it was when we started

Our goal here is to simply generate a monthly income of $4,000 using $500,000 invested without depleting the principal – the kind of thing that my Mom and many of her friends need to do to supplement their not very generous Social Security checks.  Please see previous posts in our Virtual Portfolio section for our main strategy discussions – this is just an update. 

Our last update was on January 12th and we finally had some work to do after taking 4 consecutive months off as we just laid back and collected our Q4 dividends but January had a lot of our short sold January positions coming due or paying off.  We knew this was going to be our time for action as there really is no such thing as a free lunch – even the investing class has to roll out of bed and sit at a desk a couple of times a year!  

Prior to making our moves, we had $80,617 of realized gains (positions we had cashed in) against $39,965 for a $40,652 net gain in our 8th month so averaging a bit better than $5,000 a month and well a head of schedule but this is the month we EXPECTED to do well in so we'll see how we made out.  The following positions were closed:

  • 1,000 shares of RRD paid a .26 dividend on 1/25 – up $260 
  • 1,500 shares of NYB paid a .25 dividend on 2/3 – up $375
  • 4,000 shares of AA paid a .03 dividend on 2/1 – up $120 
  • 2,000 shares of F paid a .05 dividend on 1/27 – up $100
  • 10 KFT Jan $30 puts sold for $1.60, expired worthless – up $1,600 
  • 10 EXC Jan $37.50 puts sold for $2.20, expired worthless


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Phil's Favorites

Another Look at Bernanke's Employment Recovery in Chart Form

Courtesy of Mish.

Reader Tim Wallace took note of Bernanke's testimony on jobs (see Bernanke's Semi-Annual Tap-Dance of Distortions, Half-truths, Lies, and Hypocrisy to U.S. Congress) and sent me the following chart.

April Employment vs. April Employment in Previous Years



click on chart for sharper image

Tim writes ...
Hello Mish

Bernanke was touting the direction of employment using the familiar "7.5%" numbers and pointing to all the improvement. While granting that more people are working now than in 2010, we recognize tha...



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Zero Hedge

Despite 'Promises', Japanese Market Chaos Continues

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

UPDATE 1: Japanese stocks turned negative (NKY -600pts from highs, -1.5% on day; and TOPIX down over 4% from highs); Japanese banks -11% from yesterday highs; S&P futures down 10 points from after-hours highs...

UPDATE 2: *KURODA WANTS TO AVOID INCREASING VOLATILITY IN BOND MARKET (yeah thanks... as useful as saying "we all want to avoid syphilis") 

UPDATE 3: Nikkei 225 Drops below 14,000 - TOPIX down 11% from highs

For the second day in a row, and in spite of comments from Abe and Kuroda on communicating with the market (as Kuroda says BoJ Monetary easing sufficient), Japanese capital markets are out of control...



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Insider Scoop

Long Setup in Herbalife Still Attractive; Stock Breaks Out as New Auditor Hired

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Few stocks have attracted more news over the last six months than nutritional supplement maker Herbalife (NYSE: HLF).

Even casual market observers are aware of the circumstances surrounding the the initial bout of extreme volatility in the name back in December 2012. The shares went into free-fall at the end of the year after hedge fund manager Bill Ackman revealed in typical sanctimonious fashion that his firm Pershing Square Capital Management was short around $1 billion worth of the stock.

Amid much pomp and circumstance, Ackman laid out his short thesis at a New York investment conference and...



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Option Review

Weekly Options Constructive On Home Depot

Today’s tickers: HD, IMAX & DOV

HD - Home Depot – Shares in the home improvement retailer are trading lower on Thursday, off the lowest levels of the session but still down 1.25% at $78.69 as of 11:50 a.m. ET, amid a down day for U.S. stocks. Trading traffic in newly issued weekly options on Home Depot suggests some traders are taking advantage of the dip today and positioning for shares in the name to resume hitting record highs next week. The stock yesterday rallied as much as 3.6% to touch an all-time high of $81.56 after the company reported better-than-expected first...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Rethinking the Risk QE Tapering

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The pre-market anxieties were little changed by this morning's slightly better-than-expected unemployment claims. The eurozone indexes were all down 2% to 3% when the US markets opened. The S&P 500 promptly plunged to its -1.20 intraday low in the first nine minutes of trading. But the index trimmed its losses in an irregular trend to its afternoon intraday high at 2:50 PM, when the market was just a hundredth of a point from break even. This was in contrast to eurozone, where the STOXX 50 closed its session down 2.05%. The S&P 500 saw some selling in the final hour and finished the day at -0.29%, well off its morning low. Presumably the abated selling suggests generally reduced fears about the Fed tapering QE in the near term.

Here is a 15-minute loo...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Market Montage

Japan's Nikkei Down 7%+, Chinese Flash PMI Contractionary, Thoughts on "Tapering"

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Some quick notes:

  • Futures down moderately after yesterday's outside day.   The extreme overbought conditions on the weekly and monthly index charts are finally relenting some.   Even uber bulls would prefer solid entry points on stocks rather than chasing constantly.   The S&P 500 had not touched the 10 day moving average since May 2nd, until yesterday – a not common situation.   In theory the S&P 500 could go all the way down to 1597 – which was its primary breakout level – and still be in decent condition, but surely dip buyers trai...


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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Fed tries to refill bulls’ fuel tank as cyclicals lead

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

The market went through some gyrations on Wednesday in reaction to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. He first defended continued quant easing by warning, “A premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but also would carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery.” Stocks dutifully rallied and all major indexes hit new intraday highs.

But alas, consensus is apparently not a given over the longer term. The minutes hinted that a tapering off could start sooner, “A number of participants expressed willingness to adjust the flow of purchases downward as early as the June meeting if the economic information received by that time showed evidence of sufficiently strong and sustained growth.” So …...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 20th, 2013

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

NEW: Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly! Just sign in with your PSW user name and password, or sign up to try it out. 

...

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

The IRA portfolio

Reminder: Craigzooka is available to chat with Members regarding his virtual portfolio performance, comments are found below each post.

By Craigzooka

I am going to share with you how I manage my IRA and the power of reducing your cost basis.  My goal each year is a 20% return in my IRA.  Sometimes I make it and sometimes I don't, but I believe that all of my success is due to reducing my cost basis.  To illustrate the power of reducing your cost basis here are some trades we did last year.  These trades are taken from an educational portfolio we ran in a paper-trading account for a little more than a year.

  • We bought RIG on 5/15/2012 for $44.13, sold it on 1/18/2013 for $46 but booked a profit of $1,154.
  • We bought MT on 1/4/2012 for $19.24, sold it on 12/21/2012 for $15 but booked a profit of $454.
  • We bought CHK on 1/27/2012 for $21.93, sold it on 10/19/2012 for $18 b...


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ETF Selector

Stock Market Gets Big News After Friday’s Close

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Stock market posts another record setting week, but the big news came after Friday’s close.

Courtesy of NASA

The stock market put on another record setting show with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) closing at a record high 15,118 and the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) closing at 1633.70, another all time closing high.

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) gained 1%, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) climbed 1.2%, the Nasdaq Composite (NYSEARCA:...



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Pharmboy

Give Them an Inch, They Will Take a Mile

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well, well, well....it is good to know that there are others in the scientific arena who believed that YMI Bioscience's data (cough - Gilead) is a better drug than Incyte's Jakafi.  Now, the definitive data are still unknown, but there was enough evidence from a Phase 2 trial to take a small risk for a huge reward.  So, let's forget about Apple (AAPL), and do nothing but biotechs from now until Congress passes universal health care coverage for prescriptions....and drive the prices down so that research and development is no longer feasible to conduct in the US. Even Seattle Genetics (SGEN) has been on a tear as of late...



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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site (blogroll, archives, more). Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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