Archive for the ‘Virtual Portfolio Review’ Category

Philstockworld Top Trade Review

Image result for top trade ideasTop Trades has become one of Philstockworld's most popular Memberships and that's a shame because I actually hate trading services that just give out trade ideas.  Unfortunately, that's what the market demands and, though Top Trade Members miss out on the trading education and deep discussions we have in our Live Member Chat Room, they usually do get a lot of great trades.

We began Top trades in August of 2015 and year one saw 96 out of 119 Trade Ideas (80.6%) made money immediately (by the first review) and half of the intial losers turned around over time as well.  We started year two's first quarter, covering Sept-Dec with 22 of 30 trade ideas (73%) in the green but, for example, one of our 8 "losers" at the time of the review (2/20) was RH – a trade that was in our Long-Term Portfolio:

As of the last review, we only had the short puts, which were down $1,400 (23%) so a "loser:" and, at the time (2/20), I said:

As you can see, they hit our target floor at $25 but we were in Vegas and forgot to add the bull call spread at the time – though I still like the plan.  The puts, by themselves, are now $7.40 ($7,400) so down $1,400 (23%) and I still like that sale along with 10 2019 $25 calls $9.75 ($9,750), selling 10 of the $35 calls for $6.20 ($6,200) for $3,550 so we still


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PhilStockWorld September Portfolio Review

$2,093,910!  

That is a LOVELY $133,849 gain on paried LTP/STP Portfolios since our Aug 20th review.  I said at the time that it is ridiculous to make this kind of money in a month (6.8%) but I also said we'd be fools not to take advantage of the gift the market is handing to us.  The STP, where we keep our hedges, lost $6,813 as of our review date (these reviews are from last week) but that was lucky and now we're down to $460,302 but, on the other hand, the LTP is clocking in at $1,654,569 so $2,114,871 is up another $20,961 since last week – that's crazy!  

As I have been emphasizing all week, we are putting 25-33% of our long profits into our short hedges – in order to lock in those long gains.  When you are netting 6.8% even after the hedging that insures you will keep that 6.8% (or most of it) when the market turns sour, then you can certainly afford to be cautious.  At the end of the year, we'll be up 60-70% whether the market is up or down while, if you let it all hang out and went for 85% – maybe you'll have it at the end of the year and maybe you won't – I'd much rather be sure. 

Anyway, read my notes from the last report – no changes – we're cautious for the same reason but pay particular attention to the kinds of adjustments we made and how they worked out.  That's another HUGE benefit of keeping our portfolio well-balanced – the stability gives us lots of time to tinker with and perfect our positions as it's very easy to make a few minor adjustments, when you don't have to worry about having to make a major one…

Short-Term Portfolio Review (STP):  $487,027 is down $6,813 from our 8/15 review but no apologies there as it's fantastic that that's all we lost while the LTP made 6 figures.  That's because we made sensible adjustments back on the 15th but, otherwise, we didn't touch our STP, which has $481,657 in CASH!!! – just in case we ever need some money if things do go on sale.  

Despite the mountain of CASH!!! (we started with just $100,000 on 11/26/13), we are…
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PSW August Portfolio Review

$2 MILLION Dollars.  

Well, actually it's $1,960,061 but that's still up 326% from our $600,000 start in our paired Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios since their inception on 11/26/13.  We're "only' up $440,607 (29%) in 13 months (see our July, 2016 portfolio review) as, even at that time, I wondered "Are We Too Bullish".  

The S&P was at 2,120 last July and now at 2,425 so up 14% which means we're outperforming the S&P by 100% so I certainly don't think we've become too bearish, we've simply tapered our 40%+ annual growth of the first 3 years in favor of spending more money on hedges – to lock in these ridiculous gains.  

And they are ridiculous.  As I noted on Friday, there isn't enough money in the World, nor are the Central Banks printing money fast enough to pay everyone 40% annual gains.  In fact, if you start with $600,000 and make 40% a year for just 10 years, that's $17.3 MILLION!  So, I will ask you again, do you think it's likely or unlikely we continue along this path?

No, that would be silly, right?  No matter how confident we are in our own abilities to make money, we have to recognize that this is a unique market situation that is inherently unsustainable.  It's a lot like catching a really good wave while you are surfing – we're good surfers and we will take full advantage of it but you can't fool yourself into betting the next wave will be even bigger, and the one after that and the one after that – it's simply not how the universe works.

Of course, we know what's causing these giant wavers – Central Bank Policies – but then we have to consider if those are sustainable and, as you can see from the rate chart – the amount of money they need to pump into the system begins to grow exponentially to sustain these asset gains.  We started with $600,000 but the S&P 500 is now at about $21Tn alone so it will cost SOMEONE $8Tn to add 40% to it.  The entire GDP of the United States is $18.5Tn and is growing at MAYBE 3%, which is $242Bn – far shy of…
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PhilstockWorld May Portfolio Review (Members Only)

$1,800,221 – that's up 300% from our $600,000 start on our paired portfolios back on 11/26/13.

We haven't made too many changes in the past 30 days but we still gained a very nice $47,535 since the April Review ($1,752,686) on our paired Long and Short-Term portfollios.  While $47,535 is 8% of our original, it's "only" 2.7% of our April total so yes, we are playing a bit too conservatively for this market – despite putting up some very impressive numbers.  

The S&P 500 was at 2,360 on April 9th and now 2,433, so it's up 3.1%, which means we're now one of those funds that is underperforming the S&P 500, right?  But that's not the purpose of our portfolio strategy – clearly we outperform the S&P over the long haul and that's because our hedges keep us (mostly) from losing money in the downturns.  Being safe from downturns has a price though, when the market is gaining at an 18% annualized pace – we aim for a more conservative average than that.

Since April 9th, we've added new longs on ABX, DIN, EWZ, IMAX, SEE, SKT, TLRD and VZ and, if you are having trouble recognizing some of the symbols – well that's my point – we're running out of cheap stocks to buy at these days, so we either have to drink the Kool-Aid and buy high and hope to sell higher or we can wait PATIENTLY for a pullback that gives us better entries on better stocks.  

Going back to last July's review, when at S&P 2,120 I asked "Are We Too Bullish?", we were at $1,519,454 so we're up about 20% from that total but keep in mind we still trade the LTP like it's a $500,000 portfolio with 80% of our money in CASH!!! and gaining $300,000 on $500,000 is 60% – that's why our growth is slowing now, the way we're plaing it, 20% a year is just fine!  The key is to learn how to CONSISTENTLY get those 20% returns, so they can compound over time.  $500,000 compounded at 20% for 20 years is $19,168,799 – that should be enough to paper anyone's retirement, right?

The trick is to
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Philstockworld Top Trade Review

Image result for top trade ideasTop Trades has become one of Philstockworld's most popular Memberships and that's a shame because I actually hate trading services that just give out trade ideas.  Unfortunately, that's what the market demands and, though Top Trade Members miss out on the trading education and deep discussions we have in our Live Member Chat Room, they usually do get a lot of great trades.

We began Top trades in August of 2015 and year one saw 96 out of 119 Trade Ideas (80.6%) made money immediately (by the first review) and half of the intial losers turned around over time as well.  As of our prior review, covering Sept-Dec, we had 22 of 30 trade ideas (73%) in the green already but, for example, one of our "losers" was RH – a trade that was in our Long-Term Portfolio:

As of the last review, we only had the short puts, which were down $1,400 (23%) so a "loser:" and, at the time (2/20), I said:

As you can see, they hit our target floor at $25 but we were in Vegas and forgot to add the bull call spread at the time – though I still like the plan.  The puts, by themselves, are now $7.40 ($7,400) so down $1,400 (23%) and I still like that sale along with 10 2019 $25 calls $9.75 ($9,750), selling 10 of the $35 calls for $6.20 ($6,200) for $3,550 so we still have a net $2,450 credit (or a $3,850 credit if starting from scratch) and our worst case is owning RH at net $22.55 – 16% below the current price.  That's an official add for our LTP!  

Obviously, the situation has much improved, despite the recent pullback.  The short 2019 $25 puts are down to $4.10 ($4,100) and the 2019 $25/35 bull call spread is in the money at $7 ($7,000) for net $2,900, up $5,350 (218%) from our original net $2,450 credit and well on the way to making the full $10,000 (still a good trade if you can settle for a double).  

The secret to
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Philstockworld April Portfolio Review (Members Only)

What a first quarter!  

When we last reviewed, back on Jan 22nd, the S&P closed at 2,271 and we were generally playing for a flat market and worried that we might be a bit too bearish but, now that the S&P is at 2,362 (up 4%), we're a lot more comfortable with a more bearish stance – albeit after adding a few bullish positions along the way.  

Before we get into a review I want to make a very important point.  Our Options Opportunity Portfolio (OOP) was last reviewed on March 15th, and it's a self-contained portfolio, with the hedges right alongside the long-term positions.  As I've noted on many occasions, when you have a well-balanced portfolio and you are practicing our system of BEING THE HOUSE – Not the Gambler, you shouldn't have to do much from month to month (see last year's Forbes interview for a good explanation).

We did add 4 bullish trades in the last two weeks (ATI, CDE, CHK & NLY) and, on the 15th, we called for 2 of our positions to be adjusted and one was closed (SONC) – that's it.  On March 15th our OOP was at $270,475 and, as of Friday's close, we're at $278,177 – up $7,702, which is 7.7% of our original $100,000 start (8/8/15) and that's just fine for two week's "work", isn't it?

Related imageInvesting doesn't have to be stressful – certainly not if you are on the house side of the table.  Mostly it's a matter of keeping ourselves well-balanced and letting the premiums we sold run down over time – that's what casinos do and they seem to do very well for themselves!  

You just need to accept the fact that betting on the markets is no better than betting on casino games – you may win or you may lose but, over time, the odds are rigged against you – especially with options so, logically, if we SELL options to suckers who think they can beat the house – we'll do very well!  That's it – that's the whole secret to our success.

Our last major Portfolio Review was back on Jan 22nd and, since
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Philstockworld 2017 Watch List – 24 Stocks to Keep Our Eye On

Image result for stocks to watchTwo weeks ago we began compiling our 2017 Watch List.

A Watch List is not a Buy List, a Watch List is a list of stocks we'd LIKE to buy – IF they get cheaper.  Of course that's true of every stock but these are stocks we consider good values where they are now and are ALMOST cheap enough for us to want to get in and we want to be ready when they do give us a good entry – so we watch them!  

I like the Finviz charts because they constantly update, so any time you refresh this post, the charts will be updated to the day.  I've also put dates on the last round of picks because we've had a lot of movement since 2/17 and some of the stocks have gone higher (we are not chasting) and a couple have gotten cheaper and those we are likely to move on. 

The trading notes are the best idea we have AT THE TIME the stock is added to our list – our goal is to get a BETTER trade set-up than the one we highlight, NOT the one we are discussing – those are for reference purposes.  For example, Target (TGT) took a nice dive on earnings and are much cheaper now ($57.35) than the $65.55 we were watching them at.  $55 was our target for short puts but NOW you can sell the 2019 $55 puts for $7.25, $2 (40%) better than they were pre-earnings.

Even better, we can collect the $5.20 we wanted by selling the 2019 $50 puts and we will sell 10 of those in the LTP (buying back our 5 short Jan $67.50 puts) and now we can add 10 2019 $55 ($7.60)/65 ($3.60) bull call spreads for $4 which, as a new trade, is a net credit of $1.20 per contract ($1,200) which means the worst case is owning TGT for net $48.80 – THOSE are the kind of trades we love to be in!  

"The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble…We want to buy


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Philstockworld Top Trade Review

Image result for top trade ideasThe pressure is on!  

Top Trades has become one of Philstockworld's most popular Memberships and that's a shame because I actually hate trading services that just give out trade ideas.  Unfortunately, that's what the market demands and, though Top Trade Members miss out on the trading education and deep discussions we have in our Live Member Chat Room, they usually do get a lot of great trades.

That is, until September they did!  In our first year of Top Trades, beginning in August of 2015, 96 out of 119 Trade Ideas (80.6%) were immediate winners and half of the initial losers turned around over time and became winners as well.  Perhaps it was shooting fish in a barrel in a bull market.  Unfortunately, our second year got off to a rough start, with just 7 of our 16 ideas in September and October winning by Dec 10th (we have to give them some time before reviewing).  Of those 9 losing trades:

  • ERIC is improved but still red
  • TEVA has not improved
  • MON is now a winner 
  • CMG is a home run
  • SGYP is a huge winner
  • LL got worse
  • TASR is now a winner 
  • TWTR still in the red 
  • JO was a winner but now a loser again (wild swings) 

So 4 of our 5 losers are now winners and these are long-term trades, for the most part – it's not like we can expect every one to win immediately.  The point is that these reviews are simply initial snapshots to see how we're doing – in case our trade need adjustments in their early stages – they are far from the final word on these trades.  In this month's review, we will pick up in November and review the next two months.  

The secret to our success in Top Trades is PATIENCE!!! Patience is the hardest thing we try to teach our Members at Philstockworld as it tends to take years of practice and the nice thing about the Top Trades Membership is that you don't have a choice – we make
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Philstockworld January Portfolio Review

Image result for new year 2017 stock marketWe're off to a great start!  

Only 20 days into the new year and, since our last review, all 4 of our Member Portfolios have added substantial gains as our bets on a flatlining market are paying off:

  • Our Options Opportunity Portfolio (OOP) is up $9,352 (9.3%), at $246,577, which is up 148.6% since its 8/8/15 inception – our newest portfolio.
  • Our Butterfly Portfolio is up $7,816 (7.8%) at $331,408, which is up 231.4% since its 7/29/13 inception.  
  • Our Short-Terrm Portfolio (STP) is up $9,222 (9%) at $484,298 which is up 375.1% since its 11/26/13 inception.
  • Our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) has jumped 29,649 (6%) to $1,209,372, which is up 141.9% since its 11/26/13 inception.  

In addition to our 4 virtual tracking portfolios, we also have our Top Trade Ideas, which do not go into a portfolio but I will do a review of those next week.  For the first time ever, our last two Top Trade Ideas were hedges – that should tell you something about my mindset for the market going forward.  

Image result for cash jokerAll of our Member portfolios are 75-90% CASH!!! at the moment and using 1/4-1/2 margin – leaving us plenty of room to adjust if the market does turn sour – something I feel is very likely to happen in the next two months and yes, I know I've said this before but, really, how much over our 2,100 top call on the S&P are we?  It's at 2,262, so we're 162 points over what I called a value top and that's 7.7% but, in fairness, the Dollar is down 3% and that explains most of it.

The rest of the pop comes from runaway expections from the Trump Presidency and yes, he will lower the Corporate Tax Rate but Corporations only pay 12% on avergage now – how low can they really go?  More pop came from the Banking Sector, where deregulation expections have added 20% to that index but we saw what deregulated Banks did to themselves under Bush – why is that a good thing?  And, of course, rising oil prices have boosted the Energy
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Philstockworld 2017 Portfolio Review – Looking Back at 2016

Image result for new year 2017 stock marketHappy New Year! 

It's been a fantastic year for our primary, paired portflios with the Short-Term Portfolio finishing 2016 at $475,076 (up 375%) while our Long-Term Portfolio came in Friday at $1,179,723 (up 136%) for a grand total of $1,654,766, a gain of $1,154,766 (192%) from our $600,000 start back on 11/26/13.  We're up $109,345 since our pre-election review on 11/6 - that's 10% in two months and, into December options expirations, we cashed in some more winners, bringing us to over $900,000 in cash (80%) into the holidays, a position we call "Cashy and Cautious".  

On the whole, 2016 went about as well as expected.  Last December, our paired portfolios stood at $1,004,162 so we've added 65% in 2016 and we were, fortunately, Cashy and Cautious into last January too because we were able to take full advantage of the Q1 correction in 2016.  I strongly urge going over our early 2016 positions – most of them are still in our portfolios and the ones that changed make for an interesting watch list like ANTM, BHI, BID, BP, CHL, CIM, ECA, INTC, KORS, MYL, RIG, STWD, SWKS, TGT, WFM, WYNN – to name a few.

Image result for value investingOur value-oriented strategies dictate we get out of even the best stocks when they become over-priced but that doesn't mean we don't want to get back into them when they calm down!  Value investing is all about patience, even when we like a stock, we still prefer to scale into the position – just in case we're a bit early…  They also dictate we regularly review and contemplate our positions and, when necessary, sit on the sidelines.  

Our two smaller portfolios are self-hedging but also with a good deal of cash on the side in this very uncertain market.  Our Options Opportunity Portfolio closed out the year at $237,225 (up 137%) and that's up $131,739 (132%) from $105,486 in our 12/7/15 review.  That portfolio only began on August 8th of 2015 and we got off to a rough start but more than made up for it in 2016.  Finally, our Butterfly Portfolio came in at $338,224 (up 238%) and that's a gain of $157,149…
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Zero Hedge

Is This The Bizarre Reason Why Tesla Is Struggling To Ramp Model 3 Production?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A little over a week ago, we noted the damning – if unsurprising – report from the Wall Street Journal revealing that Tesla's massive production miss on the Model 3, after only producing a tiny fraction of the 1,500 Model 3 sedans that it promised customers, might have been attributable to the fact that key parts of the cars were still being assembled by hand.

But according to a new report from the WSJ and ...



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Phil's Favorites

The pull of energy markets - and legal challenges - will blunt plans to roll back EPA carbon rules

 

The pull of energy markets – and legal challenges – will blunt plans to roll back EPA carbon rules

Courtesy of Hari OsofskyPennsylvania State University and Hannah WisemanFlorida State University

Grid operators set the prices for energy markets and are structured to take the lowest prices – a disadvantage for coal and nuclear power. CC BY

On Oct. 10, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt ...



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ValueWalk

Indo-US Obnoxious Stance On CPEC: A Critical Appraisal

By Guest Post. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Since  the beginning of work on China Pakistan Economic Corridor project (CPEC),  India is quite open in opposing this mega Project and now the US has also shown its weight behind India by saying that it too believes the route of corridor passes through a disputed territory — a reference to Northern areas of Pakistan. The statement has come at a time when Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif was in Washington and held series of talks with the US officials to normalize the tense relations. This new stance has started another debate and is undoubtedly going to further damage the bilateral ties, as it is profusely obvious now that US envision a greater role for India in the region. Pakistan and China are wo...



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Chart School

Market Cycle Top?

Courtesy of Declan.

About four years ago I went to a Bloomberg hosted talk on Market Cycles. I have been wracking my brain and Google trying to find the presentation and speaker name (which was available on line) but I thought the talk interesting enough to market in my Google calendar the date for the New Moon in October 2017, which was a focus point convergence of a number of market cycles and potentially a significant market top event (the countdown clock in the sidebar). The years have since ticked by and we are not just a couple of days from the October 2017 New Moon. The market has at least cooperated by sitting at new all-time highs but whether this evolves into a major top remains to be seen. I'm mad with myself that I can't find in my pinboard or delicious bookmarks the link so all I can say is the day will soon be upon us ...

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Insider Scoop

The BLUE And The BOLD; Analyst Suggests Pair Trade Ahead Of Year-End Catalysts

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BLUE 30 Stocks Moving In Monday's Mid-Day Session Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For October 16, 2017 ...

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Digital Currencies

WTF is the Blockchain?

 

Source: TechiesPad

...

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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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Biotech

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Courtesy of Sally Ferguson, CQUniversity Australia

Today, the “beautiful mechanism” of the body clock, and the group of cells in our brain where it all happens, have shot to prominence. The 2017 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Jeffrey C. Hall, Michael Rosbash and Michael W. Young for their work on describing the molecular cogs and wheels inside our biological clock.

In the 18th century an astronomer by the name of Jean Jacques d'Ortuous de Ma...



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Members' Corner

Day of Last Dances

News today has been relentlessly terrible. A horrific mass murder happened last night in Las Vegas. (Our politician's abject failure to address gun control is beyond sickening.) And today, reports that Tom Petty died of a heart attack, followed by reports that Tom Petty is not dead, and now reports confirming that Tom Petty has passed away. 

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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