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Archive for the ‘Virtual Portfolio Review’ Category

Using Options to Pay Yourself Monthly Dividends up to 10%

Sometimes we forget the basics.

In our video series, there's a lesson called "The Secret to Consistent 20-40% Annual Returns on Stocks" and I hope you've seen it.  While the low implied volatility of the market has made it a rough year for option selling, we were still able to scratch out just under 30% profits in our long and short-term portfolios.  We also cashed out out Income Portfolio with a 20% profit earlier in the year and we did it by following the BASIC strategies we teach at Philstockworld, not by gambling! 

Not that we're adverse to gambling, gambling is fun – but fun means fun, which means it's a small part of our total investing portfolio while the vast bulk of our money is SENSIBLY INVESTED in safer strategies that are designed to grind out consistently good returns over many years.  Two weeks ago we discussed the long-term advantages of compounding annual growth in "How to Get Rich Slowly" and now we'll begin discussing some basic strategies that can generate those consistent annual returns.

In the "7 Steps" video, we're discussing a basic covered call strategy and we delve into the Fundamentals of stock selection.  At the time (Sept 2013), we were using ABX, which was trading at $19.15 and we sold the November $19 calls (45 days out) for $1.30.  The simple instructions were to wash, rinse and repeat to make up to 40% a year by simply selling calls against the stock.  

As you can see, ABX has dropped to $10.58 since then, down about 40% BUT, had you followed through and kept selling calls, we had a lovely 12-month period in which it stayed in our range and that would have given us 8 opportunities to collect at least $1 for $8 back before the stock turned down in September of this year.  That would have dropped the net outlay below $10 and stopping out at $15 would have been a 50% gain for the year – even as the stock dropped 22% (from $19.15 to $15).

You can't get more basic than that – just mindlessly selling covered calls every month or two and, even when the
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Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2015

Merry Christmas!

I hope you get everything you want this holiday season and, most importantly, I hope you have time to spend with your family.  I love waiting for my kids to wake up on Christmas morning to come out of their rooms so I can videotape (gosh I’m old, there’s no tape anymore) them in those first moments of Christmas morning – how can I not be of good cheer anticipating that?

I have something I can give you for the holidays as well.  Not peace on Earth but perhaps peace of mind heading into the New Year – a way to help insure some future prosperity with a few inflation-fighting stock picks that can brighten up your portfolio, which also can be used to help balance the budget against unexpected cost increases.  

This isn’t an options seminar or one about risk or leverage – these are just a few practical ideas you can use to hedge against inflation as it may affect your everyday life using basic industry ETFs and some simple hedging strategies to give you an opportunity to stay ahead of the markets if they keep going higher. 

We haven't felt the need for inflation hedges since 2011 as the Fed has kept us in a somewhat DEflationary cycle but our 2011 hedges were good for 300-600% returns and we're simply going to repeat the same, simple concepts here to set up good, rational hedges against inflation to insure a financially healthy and happy 2015:

Idea #1 – Hedging for Home Price Inflation

Let’s say you have $40,000 put aside for a deposit on a home but you’re not sure it’s the right time to buy.  On the other hand, let’s say you are worried that home prices will take off again (I doubt this but you never know).  XHB is the homebuilder’s ETF, currently at $33.28 and they bottomed out at $28.50 in October and back near the highs for the year now.

You can sell 20 contracts of the XHB 2017 $28 puts for $2.25 each ($4,500) and that obligates you to buy 2,000 shares of XHB at $28 (16% off the current price) and you can use that money to buy 20 2016 $28/33 bull call spreads for $3.30 ($6,600) and…
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PSW December Portfolio Reviews (Members Only)

RUT WEEKLYJust a quick post to summarize our four Member Portfolios.

As noted on Wendesday, we are well-balanced and very, very Cashy in our portfolios as we head into the end of the year.   We've made great profits and we're not sure which way the market will end up so, essentially, we're taking a defensive stance to lock in our virtual gains and, as you can see from Dave Fry's Russell Chart – we're certainly not missing anything as the broad-based indexes (NYSE as well) have been flatlining since October.

As noted on Thursday, our main portfolios, the Long-Term Portfolio, which is hedged with the Short-Term Portfolio began the year with a combined $600,000 ($500/100) and have been holding the $760,000-$785,000 range since November, when we parked our positions in neutral (balanced between bullish and bearish) into the holidays.  The two portfolios are up $179,000 for the year (29.8%) so of course we want to protect those gains!  

Short-Term Portfolio Review (STP):  Back to $165,000 (up 65%) after a scare on Tuesday as the SQQQs got priced really low, for no particular reason.  We'll have to consider if we are too bearish here, or perhaps simply not bullish enough in the LTP.  Remember, this portfolio isn't SUPPOSED to make money – it's here to protect the LTP – this is just a happy accident…

  • DXD – Why do we have so many of those?  We'll leave them this weekend but no point in rolling them since we have TZA for Jan protection. 
  • TZA – Speak of the devil.  Well, since we're killing the DXDs next week, TZA becomes our primary short-term hedge and I'm good with that with the RUT back at 1,180 and TZA is at $13 so the $13 calls at $1 start making money on an over 5% drop between now and Jan – that's what a hedge is supposed to do.  Yes, I know we bought them for $2 (and we lost $10K on the DXDs too) but that's just the cost of our insurance.  We need to forget about that and focus on the $5K we have in


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Thanksgiving Top Trades Review – Using Options to Reduce Risk and Increase Profits

Happy Thanksgiving (almost)!  

We added a new feature last month called Top Trades™ (Members Only) so I thought it would be a good time to see how we're doing as well as give a few tricks and tips to our new subscribers.  Top Trade Alerts are sent out once or twice a week via EMail and Text Message from our Basic and Premium Live Member's Chat Room.  These trades are just a very small portion of what we discuss during chat each day, but hopefully a good representative sample.  Let's see how they performed so far:

We already reviewed our first Top Trade Alert™ in Thursday's post and our first 7 ideas are already up a combined 3.7% for the month but, officially, GSK was the actual Top Trade that day, and it's already up 6.1% for the month – a great way to get started!  Also on Thursday, we checked out out 2nd Top Trade Idea for CAT and, with Friday's 4.27% gain, the stock is already up 9% in a month but, of course, we don't just play boring old stocks at Philstockworld – our option trade Idea was:

As a new trade on CAT, I'd sell the 2017 $80 puts for $7.30 for a very nice $72.70 net entry.  That's more than the $5.60 dividend you'd make owning the stock for 2 years and a 26% discount if put to you.  That's great as a stand-alone play or it can be paired with the $100/115 bull call spread at $5.50 and you still have a net $1.80 credit (so net $78.20 entry – 20% off) but 100% of the upside over $100 for the next two years.  

As of yesterday's close, the $80 puts were $5.70 (up 21.9%) and the bull call spread is now $7.35 for net $1.65 plus the original $1.80 credit is $3.45, up 191% in a month on the option play.  Isn't that more fun than just making 9% on the stock?  

This is what we teach our Members at Philstockworld.  Rather than
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PSW October Portfolio Reviews (Members Only) – Final

SPX WEEKLYAnd we're back!  

Quite the recovery since last week so I figured we'd better take another look and go over our positions to make sure we're well-balanced.  We're UNbalanced in our recovery, with less volume and more height than we've had before.  Technically, we're looking bullish but, Fundamentally – there are still a lot of questions.  

We'll discuss outlook and such in the Member Chat Room over the weekend, this article is just to check our balances, not an extensive review like we had last week.  I'm on the way to Vegas today ahead of our Live Seminar next weekend (last chance to sign up), so I'm just going to note the items I think need adjusting this morning.

As an overview, last week our LTP was up 19.2% for the year at $596,170 and our STP was up 94% at $194,183 for a total of $790,353 (up 31.7% overall) following our aggressive strategy.  As of Friday's close, the LTP had climbed to 21.5% ($607,710 and the STP fell to 82.5% at $182,498 for a total of $790,208, essentially flat at 31.7%.  We turned more bearish on Wednesday and it may have cost us some gains but our aim into the end of the year is to lock in these profits, not "go for it."  

The more conservative Income Portfolio was up 2.4% last week and finished yesterday up 8.5% at $542,304.  Combined with the hedges in the Income Portfolio, that pairing is at $734,538, up 22.4% for the year and miles ahead of our 10% goal.

Our Butterfly Portfolio was as boring as its supposed to be, up 18.7% last week ($118,740) and up 18.1% today.  The $25,000 Portfolio slipped from $30,745 to $28,802 as we added two bearish plays that, so far, have not worked out.  

The reason we flipped more bearish this week was because we are back in the tops of our channels now AND we're heading into an election where, no matter who wins, half the people will be disappointed – that could lead to a small sell-off at least, along with a dozen other bad things that are going on in the world that we've decided to ignore again while the market engages in
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PSW October Portfolio Reviews (Members Only)

It seems we weathered that storm very well!  

As noted in our the last review of our virtual portfolios, BALANCE is the key to riding the market waves and we not only survived recent the 10% drop and 7% pop but we have thrived – with our Short-Term Porfolio holding onto a $94.2% gain (as of yesterday's close) and the Long-Term Portfolio back to 19.2% for the year, for a combined $790,353 off our $600,000 start – a combined 31.7% gain for the year!  

I would say it's time to cash out but we've already cashed out with the Short-Term Portfolio now sitting on $179,243 in cash (92%) and the LTP has $637,800 in cash, which is 107% of the portfolio's value.  That's because we've sold so much premium to others (our "Be the House" strategy) that it dwarfs the net value of our positions.  

Nonetheless, we're only using 34% of our $1M margin as these are, generally, conservative long-term positions.  We went into the weekend leaning very bearish in the STP, protecting our long gains in the LTP and Income Portfolios.  

  • CAKE – Was a disappointment as they lowered guidance on earnings on 6.3% more revenues and they lowered guidance to $2.07 from $2.25 – flat to last year.  Our mistake here was looking at the costs of food products like corn, wheat, etc for basic foodmaking but it was the cost of cream cheese that killed them on the food side.  Last year they topped out in the high $40s and now we are in the low $40s and I'm willing to go long on them but not appropriate for the STP – we'll look to cut this one loose next week.  
  • TNA (not shown) – We bought 25 Nov $63/67 bull call spread on 10/23 (morning post) and already sold the calls back on Friday – making us more bearish over the weekend.  If the market is up, we'll have to adjust these quickly. 
  • GMCR – Getting to be a white whale for us, the damned thing never goes down.  Earnings are 11/19 – I certainly want to see those.  
  • FAS – Part of the other


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PSW August Portfolio Reviews (Members Only)

Just a quick post to consolidate our virtual portfolio reviews for easy reference:

What we're stressing this year, above all else is our "BE THE HOUSE - Not the Gambler" strategy, in which we try to be the sellers, not buyers of options premium.  Another very key strategy we're practicing is BALANCE – our Income Portfolio is a very conservative retirement portfolio, aimed at generating a 10% annual income with as little risk as possible while our much more aggressive Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios balance each other – aiming for 20% annual gains.

Both sets are very much on track for their goals and, at this point, we're more concerned with protecting the profits we have than taking new risks but that doesn't stop us from adding prudent positions, especially as long as the market continues to make new weekly highs.  In fact, we just added an IRBT position to the LTP on Friday (not yet reflected in this update)!

Short-Term Portfolio Update (STP):  Back to $135,000 (up 35% for the year), that's a good sign as we were down to $125,000 earlier in the week so we gain $10K on a little dip means we're doing our job protecting the LTP.  You never really know if your mix is right until it's tested under pressure.  

  • CAKE – Well, I hate naked long calls but we bought back the short calls from this spread and this is what we're left with.  I'm not sure we'll get the pop we need if the indexes are dragging us down but there's also no particular reason to pull this trade so let's see what happens next week.  Our premise here is lower food costs = more profits. 
  • DXD – One of our anchor hedges, just out of the money at $24.54 with 42 days left.
  • GMCR – My white whale at this point.  Earnings not until mid-November.  
  • XLE – Persistently low oil prices will gradually break XLE down, 42 days left. 
  • XRT – We bought back the short puts here when it spiked up, I'm happy with these puts, hopefully we get $8+ as XRT heads back to $85.
  • CI, CMG, FB,


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The Buy List – 40 of the World’s Best Stock Values (Members Only)

INDU WEEKLYDon't you just love lists?   

Apparently, most American's do because the posts that get the most clicks are the ones with lists and quizzes.  I don't do lists very often yet, somehow, I still manage to be fairly popular but let's see what happens when I make a list with a catchy headline.

This list is an update of our original 2014 Buy List, which was written on June 6th and originlaly had 20 trade ideas for the 2nd half of the year.  That list quickly grew to 29 and, today, we're adding 11 more to make 40 top stock picks to take us into Q4.  Those first 29 picks are already  82% successful with only HOV, IRBT, RIG, TEX and WEN failing to make gains so far and, on average, we're up 72% on our picks in just 3 months.  

That's about par for the course with our winning percentages on trade ideas but what makes the Buy List special is that these are the ones we are comfortable committing long-term allocation blocks to, not just messing around with short-term trading.  In fact, our 5 "losers" all represent great entry opportunities at lower prices and none are being kicked off the list as our general outlook for these stocks is measured in years, not months!  

The strategy we are following is summed up nicely in this video:

As we did in building our Long-Term Portfolio, we're not going to rush in and buy everything.  We will do exactly what we did in January where, following our Fall Buy List, we simply added stocks from our list whenever they became cheap.  While our Members are able to pick up our trade ideas as they are released, we don't always add them to our virtual portfolios right away.  As with the first half's Long-Term Portfolio, we will track every entry and exit in both our Live Weekly Webcasts, as well as in our Live Member Chat Room and alerts will be sent to our subscribers (you can join here, Basic and Premium Members get full access).  

Our picks were originally grouped by industry sectors but, for reference purposes, I'm going to list them alphabetically below –
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Philstockworld Jolly June Trade Review – Part 1

What a month May was!  

Through May 23rd, we had 158 winning trade ideas against 29 that did not work out (as of the review) for an 84% winning percentage.  As usual, we begin our reviews with the last week of the previous month – even though the last week of May didn't overlap into June – as last weeks often do into the new month (which is why we do it). 

Still, 4 parts is plenty for one month, so it's time to move on!  Our Trade Reviews not only let us know if we're on or off track but, by putting the trades in context, hopefully we remind ourselves what works and what doesn't work in vartious situations so that, when we see a similar situation, we are ready, willing AND able to pull the trigger.    

As usual, we should never be at 100% because we WANT to have trades on both sides of the table (as hedges) and the profit or loss of the trades are as of today, so we look very closely at the LOSING trades – to see if we now have better entries than we had originally (assuming we still like our premise).

Monday, May 26th was a holiday, so we start this month off on a Tuesday:

May 27: Tempting Toppy Tuesday – 7th Time's a Charm?

Selling risk to others in our Member Portfolios has given us 10%+ gains for year (so far).  In fact, the only strategy we agreed with from the above chart was gold, which we bet heavily(along with DBA) at the beginning of the year. 

Remember, this isn't about making good picks, per se – it's about having a good strategy that gives you a high probability of success – even when you are wrong about a trade.   BEING THE HOUSE and selling risk (through options) to others is the closest thing we get to


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Philstockworld Merry May Trade Review – Part 4

SPX WEEKLYOur streak continues!  

The first 3 weeks of the month (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3) saw 142 trade ideas (almost 50 per week) with just 17 misses for an 88% win rate.  Of course – it's a bit like shooting fish in a barrel when we call a bottom correctly and, as you can tell from the large volume of picks, we put all that sidelined cash to good use.  

Not every call is bullish, of course, as I was saying in Friday's post, BALANCE is the most important aspect for your portfolios if you intend to be a trader for more than just the short run.  So, in theory, it shouldn't be possible for us to get to 100% and, actually, 88% probably means we were a little too bullish and just got lucky!  We have to watch out for that – and that's why these reviews are so important.

Our Trade Reviews not only let us know if we're on or off track but, by putting the trades in context, hopefully we remind ourselves what works and what doesn't work in vartious situations so that, when we see a similar situation, we are ready, willing AND able to pull the trigger.  

Able is a very important aspect of our trading strategies we tend to ignore.  My call to go to cash in late March left us with empty portfolios we were able to fill up in May and THAT is why we have such a fantastic winning percentage for the month – we made our selves READY and our mindset was WILLING because we were ABLE to take advantage of the market dip by going to cash.  

Just because we are long-term investors – it doesn't mean we can't time our entries and exits when we reach the tops and bottoms of our trading channels!  

May 17th:  How to Turn $25,000 into $500,000 in 15 Years 

This is one of the most important articles I've written in a long time.

It links back to our Webinar from that week,
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Phil's Favorites

Chicago's Fiscal Freefall: Moody's Cuts Chicago Credit Rating to Two Steps Above Junk; Snake Oil and Swaps; It's All Junk Now

Courtesy of Mish.

Last week I wrote an article for the Illinois Policy Institute on the hugely unfunded and deteriorating nature of numerous Illinois' pension systems.

I will post the article on Monday. 

My article was on on state pension systems, not Chicago's, and was written well ahead of downgrades of Chicago's debt by Moody's on Friday. I was not surprised to see the downgrade.

Let's take a look at some articles on the debt downgrade starting with Chicago Credit Rating Cut by Moody's to Two Steps Above Junk.
Chicago had its credit rating cut to within two steps of junk by Moody’s Investors Service because of mounting pension liabilities, underscoring the city’s fiscal stress as Mayor Rahm Emanuel faces an un...



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Chart School

Regression to Trend: A Perspective on Long-Term Market Performance

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Quick take: At the end of January the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 96% above its long-term trend, up from 91% above trend the previous month.

About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into under performance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis (see footnote below) to the question.

Below is a chart of the S&P Composite stretching back to 1871 based on the real (inflation-adjusted) monthly average of daily closes. I've using a semi-log scale to equalize vertical distances for the same percentage change regardless of the index price range.

The regression trendline drawn through the data clarifies the secular pattern of variance from the trend — those multi-year periods when the market ...



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Zero Hedge

Debt-To-GDP Ratios Demand Debt Jubilee

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Sprott Money.

Jeff Nielson for Sprott Money

In the 1980’s, Canada was governed by (at that time) the most incompetent, fiscally irresponsible regime in the Western world: Brian Mulroney’s “Conservative” government. In a mere eight years; Canada’s national debt tripled, and its debt-to-GDP ratio soared to what was (at the time) an astronomical level above 70%.

Canada was considered to be in an official “debt crisis”. What is meant by the term debt-crisis? It’s all a function of simple arithmetic. It is where the total debt-load a...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: Coal

Kimble Charts: Coal

By Ilene 

Chris Kimble's chart for KOL shows a recently beaten down ETF struggling to pull itself up from the ashes. As the chart shows, KOL has recently drifted down to levels not seen since the financial crisis of 2008-9.

Bouncing or recovering with energy in general, coal prices appear to have stabilized in the short-term. Reflecting coal prices, KOL has traded between $13.45 and $19.75 during the past year. Bouncing from lows, KOL traded around 2% higher yesterday from $14.26 to $14.48 on high volume. It traded another 3.6% higher in after hours to $15, possibly related to ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 23rd, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Sector rankings stay neutral with few bullish catalysts on horizon

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stocks are hitting new highs across the board, even though earnings reports have been somewhat disappointing. Actually, to be more precise, Q4 results have been pretty good, but it is forward guidance that has been cautious and/or cloudy as sales into overseas markets are expected to suffer due to strength in the US dollar. Healthcare and Telecom have put in the best results overall, while of course Energy has been the weakling. Still, overall year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 during 2015 is expected to be about +8%.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 cha...



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Digital Currencies

MyCoin Exchange Disappears with Up To $387 Million, Reports Claim

Follow up from yesterday's Just the latest Bitcoin scam.

Hong Kong's MyCoin Disappears With Up To $387 Million, Reports Claim By  

Reports are emerging from Hong Kong that local bitcoin exchange MyCoin has shut its doors, taking with it possibly as much as HK$3bn ($386.9m) in investor funds.

If true, the supposed losses are a staggering amount, although this estimate is based on the company's own earlier claims that it served 3,000 clients who had invested HK$1m ($129,000) each.

...



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Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

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Option Review

SPX Call Spread Eyes Fresh Record Highs By Year End

Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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