The purpose of this virtual portfolio is to teach how to become consistently profitable by following some basic trend-following strategies. All virtual trades are posted and updated live in the virtual portfolio, as well as in the daily post/comments.
In the comments we also discuss each position as well as strategies. Our focus is on discipline and money management. Our goal is to show that by keeping losses very small and letting run our winners it is easy to be profitable in the long-run.
Most of the trades are directional, naked options or stock. Sometimes we trade vertical spreads or more complicated positions for earning plays.
This virtual portfolio is targeted to virtual trades that we usually hold between 2-3 days and a couple of weeks.
All virtual trades are posted live in the virtual portfolio as soon as they are entered and in the comments as well.
We use different strategies in this virtual portfolio, one of them being the 5MA strategy, explained here. But we do not trade this strategy only. Most of our trades are based on technicals, support/resistance, patterns, candlesticks, pivot points etc. The constant is that we always define our stop when we enter the trade and we always respect risk management and position sizing.
For most positions, unless indicated, we buy ATM or slightly ITM naked calls or puts. We usually buy one month out, and never hold current month options 2 weeks before expiration.
R is how much we risk on each position. It is the difference between the entry price and the stop.
R should not be more than 2% to 5% of your virtual portfolio.
R is constant. It means that we should always lose the same amount when our stop is hit. If we risk 2% of your virtual portfolio on each trade and our virtual portfolio is $100K, then we should ALWAYS lose $2k when we get stopped-out. And it does not matter if the stock dropped 20% or 1% from our entry.
By defining our stop and our risk BEFORE we enter each trade, we can then calculate the number of contracts we need to buy to keep our loss at 1R when we get stopped-out.
An example of how we calculate position size:
Let’s say we buy AAPL calls when AAPL is at $152.25.
$151 is our stop.
Delta of the May $155’s is 0.50
Our total account is $25,000
Our risk on this trade is 2% of $25,000 or $500
Our risk is $1.25 on the stock
Our risk or maximum loss per option is $0.625, which 0.5 (delta) X $1.25 (risk on stock).
The number of contracts we should buy is our total risk divided by the risk per option: $500/(0.625*100) = 8
By Clayton Browne. Originally published at ValueWalk.
The Group of 30 published a report titled BANKING CONDUCT and CULTURE: A Call for Sustained and Comprehensive Reform last month (July 2015). This report, co-written by both academics and senior financial industry regulators and banking executives, pulls no punches in its critique of the morally bankrupt global banking industry and the pressing need for across-the-board reforms in the sector in order to restore public trust.
The foreword of the report notes: "Banks and banking today stand in disrepute. Poor cultural foundations and significant cultural failures were major drivers of the recent financial crisis, and continue to be factors in th...
Ever since Mitt Romney's tax disclosure fiasco in which allegations of tax avoidance and usage of offshore tax shelters played a major part in the democrat counter campaign, there has been great interest in the Adjusted Gross Income reported by presidential candidates. Which is why to avoid any surprises on the primary circuit, Hillary Clinton released the full data of her and Bill's tax income going back to 2007.
How often do you hear a car manufacturer (or any other manufacturer) tell people to "not" buy their product because they lose money if you do?
I highly suspect this is nothing more than a purposely calculated publicity stunt, but please consider California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It. Sergio Marchionne had a funny thing to say about the $32,500 battery-powered Fiat 500e that his company markets in California as “eco-chic.” “I hope you don’t buy it,” he told his audience at a think tank in Washington in May 2014. He said he loses $14,000 on every 500e he sells and only produces the cars because state rules require it.
readtheticker.com is primarily a Richard Wyckoff logic site, however through our research into Wyckoff logic the three indicators below make us very lazy in applying Richard Wyckoff logic.Why? Because if these indicators look handsome together then it most likely the Wyckoff logic is working very well.
These three indicators are NOT a trading system, but they do help with finding excellent well support accumulated stocks that show Mr Market is supporting them. Of course when indicators look ugly they will show stocks in a breakdown, thus less support by Mr Market.
If the large market plays are accumulating the stock then they will control the range of BID and ASK and not let th...
This chart looks at the Thompson/Reuters Commodity Index on a monthly basis for the past 50 years
The index took off in the early 1970’s and rallied over 200% in a little over a decade at (1). Then it created a potential double top. What followed at (2)? An unwinding of the rally that lasted nearly 20-years, taking it to the bottom of its rising channel.
In the early 2000’s, the index took off again, gaining over 250% in a decades time at (3) and the rallied looks to have ended in 2011, as it was hitting the top of this long-term rising channel.
Since hitting the top of the channel the index has been pretty soft,...
As oil prices tanked, hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased bullish bets on Treasury securities to the most in two years, even as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates.
In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.
Corporate earnings reports have been mixed at best, interspersed with the occasional spectacular report -- primarily from mega-caps like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), or Amazon (AMZN). Some of the bul...
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).
Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself.
Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene
The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below.
Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets)
Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies)
Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at firstname.lastname@example.org with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for
informational purposes only and is based upon information that is
considered to be reliable. However, neither PSW Investments, LLC d/b/a PhilStockWorld (PSW)
nor its affiliates
warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only intended at the moment of their issue as conditions quickly change. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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