Posts Tagged ‘1929 crash’

Eerie Line Chart Similarities between 1929 and 2009

Eerie Line Chart Similarities between 1929 and 2009

Courtesy of Corey Rosenbloom at Afraid to Trade  

Here’s another perspective on the comparison charts of the Dow Jones between the 1929 crash and recovery and the 2009 crash and recovery.

Let’s take a quick view of the line charts of the daily Dow Jones in 1929 structure and how it compares with today’s weekly Dow Jones structure.

First, the Daily Dow Jones:  1929 Crash and Recovery

I drew the numbers not so much as an Elliott Wave notation, but so that comparing key swing highs and lows would be easier.

The peak to trough crash lasted 72 days as the Dow Jones fell 47% (peaking in September 1929 at 386 and falling to 195 in November 1929).  It unfolded roughly in a 5-wave progression.

The rally began off the November lows and lasted 155 days, peaking up 47% at 295 during April, 1930.

This shows an important principle in investing and trading, namely that if your account (or an index) falls 50%, then it would take a full 100% rally off the lows to recapture the prior highs, and not a 50% rally off the lows as seen above.

The rally phase took twice as long as the ‘crash’ phase and also unfolded in a 5-wave affair (with smaller waves).

I found it interesting that the daily chart showed an almost identical head and shoulders reversal pattern that failed – which is similar to the June/July failed head and shoulders pattern in 2009.

Because the 2008-2009 crash and recovery took longer, I am showing the weekly line chart of the Dow Jones.

Finally, the Current Weekly Dow Jones 2008-2009 Crash and Recovery:

Again, we see a similar 5-wave slow-crash down to the final March 2009 lows.

Price peaked in October 2008 at 14,198 and then fell 52% to the March 2009 lows of 6,469 – 72 weeks (510 days).  The decline also fell in a similar 5-wave decline (with the 3rd wave ‘fractalizing’ into its own mini-five wave decline).

From the March 2009 lows, price has – so far – rallied 65% to the January high of 10,723 over the last 320 trading days… or almost all of 2009.

Again, despite the 65% rally, price is still 5,000 points lower than its 2007 peak.

The current rally also unfolded in a mini-five wave affair on a steeper…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Leaving The EU's Customs Union Is The Only Logical Step For A Truly "Global Britain"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Vincenzo Scarpetta via Open Europe,

As UK Prime Minister Theresa May prepares to trigger the Article 50 EU exit mechanism on Wednesday, Open Europe has published a ne...



more from Tyler

ValueWalk

Undervalued and Undiscovered Flanigan's Enterprises Inc. Well Positioned For Growth

By The Acquirer's Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

One of the cheapest stocks in our Acquirer’s Multiple, Small & Micro CapStock Screener is Flanigan’s Enterprises, Inc. (NYSEMKT:BDL). With a market cap around $46 million, few investors have ever heard of this great nano-cap.

Flanigan’s Enterprises, Inc. (Flanigan’s) operates a chain of full-service restaurants and package liquor stores in South Florida. The company operates package liquor stores under the Big Daddy’s Liquors name, which offer private label liquors, beer, and wines; and restaurants under ...



more from ValueWalk

Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Producers Consider Output Cut Extension as Support Grows (Bloomberg)

Oil producers pledged to consider extending their pact limiting supply, as half a dozen nations said more time was needed to drain swollen stockpiles.

Oil Speculators Can't Dump Rally Bets Fast Enough Amid Glut (Bloomberg)

The bullish sentiment following OPEC’s deal is almost all gone.

...



more from Ilene

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Producers Consider Output Cut Extension as Support Grows (Bloomberg)

Oil producers pledged to consider extending their pact limiting supply, as half a dozen nations said more time was needed to drain swollen stockpiles.

Oil Speculators Can't Dump Rally Bets Fast Enough Amid Glut (Bloomberg)

The bullish sentiment following OPEC’s deal is almost all gone.

...



more from Paul

Chart School

Mixed bag of tricks; but good chance of market swing lows

Courtesy of Declan.

The damage was done premarket and value buyers were quick to take advantage. The index which benefited the most was the Nasdaq. It started today just above the 50-day MA and rallied off that. Volume wasn't great and the technical picture didn't really improve, but action like today's can prove to be a good starting point for a swing low.


Despite the gain in the Nasdaq, Breadth metrics are weakening but are neither overbought nor oversold.  The next strong swing low will likely take a tag of the light green ...

more from Chart School

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 27th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Kimble Charting Solutions

Stocks and Bonds; Critical change of direction in play?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Since the summer of 2016, stocks have done very well and bonds have been thumped, as rates have risen sharply. Is it time for these trends to take a break? Below compares the performance of the S&P 500, with the popular bond ETF TLT over the past 9-months.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The performance spread between stocks and bonds over the past 9-months is a big one! Rare to see the spread between the two...



more from Kimble C.S.

Members' Corner

More Natterings

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

[Click on the titles for the full articles.]

A Quick $20 Trick?

Summary

Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:

  • Last time out, Sinbad The Sailor, QuickLogic.
  • GlobalFoundries, Jha, Smartron and cricket.
  • Quick money, fungible, demographics, QUIK focus.

Last Time Out

Monetary policy is just one form of policy that effects capital,...



more from Our Members

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles Below Gold As China Tightens Regulations

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Having rebounded rapidly from the ETF-decision disappointment, Bitcoin suffered another major setback overnight as Chinese regulators are circulating new guidelines that, if enacted, would require exchanges to verify the identity of clients and adhere to banking regulations.

A New York startup called Chainalysis estimated that roughly $2 billion of bitcoin moved out of China in 2016.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, the move to regulate bitcoin exchanges brings assurance that Chinese authorities will tolerate some level of trading, after months of uncertainty. A draft of the guidelines also indicates th...



more from Bitcoin

Mapping The Market

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

Courtesy of Jean Luc

I am trying to remember who on this board said that people wanted to Trump because they want their freedom back. Well….

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

By Daniel Cooper, Endgadget

ISPs will soon be able to sell your most private data without your consent.

As expected, Republicans in Congress have begun the process of rolling back the FCC's broadband privacy rules which prevent excessive surveillance. Arizona Republican Jeff Flake introduced a resolution to scrub the rules, using Congress' powers to invalidate recently-approved federal regulations. Reuters reports that the move has broad support, with 34 other names throwing their weight behind the res...



more from M.T.M.

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions

Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

more from Biotech

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>