Posts Tagged ‘Census Bureau’

Census Bureau Reports Fictional Nonsense About Retail Sales

Census Bureau Reports Fictional Nonsense About Retail Sales

Courtesy of Mish

NEW YORK - MARCH 01: A woman looks in a window advertising a sale in the SoHo shopping district of Manhattan March 1, 2010 in New York City. Consumer spending numbers tracked slightly higher in January, leading some economists to conclude that the economy is shakily regaining footing. (Photo by Chris Hondros/Getty Images)

Today the Census Bureau posted its Advance Monthly Retail Sales and Food Services Report for June 2010.

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $360.2 billion, a decrease of 0.5 percent from the previous month, but 4.8 percent above June 2009.

Total sales for the April through June 2010 period were up 6.8 percent from the same period a year ago. The April to May 2010 percent change was revised from -1.2 percent to -1.1 percent.

Retail trade sales were down 0.6 percent from May 2010, but 5.0 percent above last year. Nonstore retailers sales were up 12.1 percent from June 2009 and gasoline stations sales were up 8.8 percent from last year.

Hogwash

The only believable number in the report is gasoline sales. Otherwise the problem is in Census Bureau methodology.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate.

The methodology misses stores that went out of business and have no retail sales. Circuit City is a prime example but also note that thousands of small strip mall stores are now shuttered as well. Some of that volume went to the surveyed stores making it appear sales went up.

The only accurate way of computing retail sales is to look at state sales tax data. Even then, tax data can be misleading because one needs to factor in changes in tax policy, notably states increasing sales tax rates.

For example, a rise in the sales tax rate from 7% to 8% would result in a 14% increase in sales tax collections (all other things being equal).

The Rockefeller Institute reports "The growth in state tax revenues is not an indication of broad state fiscal recovery, but is mostly driven by legislated changes [massive tax increases] in two states — California and New York."

Please see Rockefeller
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Inventories are now rising

Inventories are now rising

Courtesy of Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns

The Census Bureau came out this morning with a report on “Manufacturer’s Shipments, Inventories and Orders” for October. The report was bullish as it showed new orders for manufactured goods rising for the sixth time in seven months. But, more importantly, it also showed that manufacturers are adding inventory which means that production is now outstripping demand, adding to upside potential for GDP this quarter.

The report states:

New orders for manufactured goods in October, up six of the last seven months, increased $2.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $360.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.6 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent.

Shipments, up four of the last five months, increased $3.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $368.0 billion. This followed a 1.3 percent September increase.

Unfilled orders, down thirteen consecutive months, decreased $2.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $730.8 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992. This followed a 0.4 percent September decrease. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 5.82, up from 5.79 in September.

Inventories, up following thirteen consecutive monthly decreases, increased $1.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $493.0 billion. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.34, down from 1.35 in September.

While inventories have been pared less slowly in the past, they have now dropped to the point where producers are increasing production so much they are adding inventories.

We should expect this to increase hours worked and income for existing workers first. Only then will temp staff and then permanent staff be taken on.  Nevertheless, this is another welcome sign of recovery.

Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders, October 2009 (pdf) – U.S. Census Bureau

 


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The Real Memo Out Of The Bureau Of Lies And Statistics

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The Real Memo Out Of The Bureau Of Lies And Statistics

"We’re leveling off! We’re leveling off!"—so is the hope of TTT, Helicopter Ben, Larry the Wall Street Lackey and the rest of Team Obama. "This recession is leveling off!"

No it’s not: The unemployment figures just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are totally cosmetic: We lost a whole lot more than 531,000 unemployed.

First, the "seasonal adjustment", which is a black box that can tweek me into looking like Dumbo the flying elephant. They’re knocking off ±65,000 workers for no clearly discernible reason. Second, notice that the Census Bureau hired 60,000 people last month. Those workers (by definition) are temporary, and are a net cost to the economy, as they will not be adding marginal utility to any economic sector, the census being merely a social expenditure.

Those two items alone turn 530,000 new unemployed into 655,000.

Now notice how, once again, previous months’ figures have been readjusted. This time, the readjustments weren’t so bad—a mere 30,000 more unemployed in February, turning that month’s official totals to 681,000, and another 30,000 for March, making that month’s official number 699,000, just shy of that magic 700,000 monthly number (BTW, remember back in the good old days when 300,000 monthly unemployed was"shocking"?)

But notice too: When those more realistic numbers were released, the markets were more or less copacetic—at least they weren’t nervously contemplating another suicidal round of cliff-diving, as we currently are. Ever since the October ’08 release of Sept. ’08 unemployment, when arguably the BLS numbers had a role in triggering the sell-off of that very nasty month, the unemployment numbers have been generally rosy whenever there’s been general nervousness in the markets around the time of the number’s release. I know this sounds crazy-man paranoid, but bear with me: Every time the markets have been nervous,the BLS numbers look pretty good, or at least not that bad, relatively speaking—and then the next month the figures are very quietly revised, sometimes by as much as 35% on the upward side.

I will bet one double Quarter Pounder with cheese and bacon that next month, the revisions of the April numbers will be on the order of an additional 85,000 unemployed. My guess is that, discounting the Census Bureau hirings, April saw 680,000 newly unemployed workers.

That would


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Zero Hedge

Volatility, Confusion Reign As PBoC Intervenes: Chinese Stocks Surge Then Tumble

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

"Rainbows always appear after rains," China's state media said over the weekend, in a blatant attempt to create the conditions for a self-fulfilling prophecy when the country's battered equity markets opened for trading on Monday. 

China's brokers and mutual funds each took steps on Saturday to help stabilize the market which has collapsed 30% in just three weeks, thanks in part to a massive unwind in the shadowy world of backdoor margin lending.

On Sunday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission ...



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Phil's Favorites

Shades of Roosevelt: Greece Safety Box Controls; Cash in Hand is King

Courtesy of Mish.

Back in January, I warned Greek citizens to take money out of Greek banks. I also warned not put it in safe deposit boxes. Both comments were dead-on accurate.

Greece Safety Box Controls

Please consider Greeks Cannot Tap Cash in Safe Deposit Boxes Under Capital Controls.
Greeks cannot withdraw cash left in safe deposit boxes at Greek banks as long as capital restrictions remain in place, a deputy finance minister told Greek television on Sunday.

Greece's government shut banks and imposed capital controls a week ago to prevent the country's banks from collapsing under the weight of mass withdrawals.

Deputy Finance Minister Nadia Valavani told Alpha TV that, as part of those measures, the go...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Surges After Initial Forecasts Show "No" Vote Ahead

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If the early bitcoin markets are an indication of what will happen once New Zealand opens for illiquid FX trade, it will be a risk off kinda day.

And that doesn't even take into account the pandemonium that will be unleashed in China in a few hours after the PBOC just went all-in to halt the crashing stock market. What if it fails to get a green close before tomorrow's US open?

Source: ...



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Insider Scoop

Russian Inflation Expected To Continue To Fall

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related RSX Russia's Gazprom Reportedly Shuts Off Gas Delivery To Ukraine ETF Investors Aren't Afraid Of Greek Default Snake Oil Stats (Seeking Alpha)

In a report published Friday, Barclays analyst Daniel Hewitt explained that the infl...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

China's slowdown is bad news for the world's big industrial exporters (Business Insider)

China's slowing economy is a serious concern for the economies of the nearly 50 nations that count China as their top export destination.

According to economists at UBS, not only will it impact the countries where the goods are coming from, but individual industries will also be hit harder than others.

Brett Arends's ROI: Why I’d vote ‘no’ ...



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Chart School

Chinese SSEC rally with Wyckoff Logic

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Supply and demand is the leading force within stock prices, you must know the tea leaves. Richard Wyckoff logic is the only known method of understanding supply and demand with the stock market.Readtheticker.com provides all the tools you need to be a Wyckoff master analyst.More from RTT Tv

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party ima...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

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To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Shanghai index creates historic reversal pattern like 2007

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Much of the attention around the world seems to be revolving around a small country called Greece. What about the most populated country in the world (China), any key messages coming from there of late?

Well another Month, Quarter and Half a year are in the books. With this in mind I wanted to look at Monthly action of the hottest stock market in the world, the Shanghai Index. Above looks at the Shanghai index over the past 25-years. The 100%+ rally over the past year has pushed the Shanghai index up to its 23% Fibonacci ratio and a long-term resistance line, that has been in play for 25-years at (1) above.

As the Shanghai index was hitting this...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of June 29th., 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls under the gun to muster troops, while bears lie in wait

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Two weeks ago, bulls seemed ready to push stocks higher as long-standing support reliably kicked in. But with just one full week to go before the Independence Day holiday week arrives, we will see if bulls can muster some reinforcements and make another run at the May highs. Small caps and NASDAQ are already there, but it is questionable whether those segments can drag along the broader market. To be sure, there is plenty of potential fuel floating around in the form of a friendly Fed and abundant global liquidity seeking the safety and strength of US stocks and bonds. While the technical picture has glimmers of strength, summer bears lie in wait.

In this weekly ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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