Testy Tuesday - Have the Markets Become Comfortably Numb?
by Phil - January 19th, 2010 8:08 am
"There is no pain you are receding
A distant ship’s smoke on the horizon.
You are only coming through in waves.
Your lips move but I can’t hear what you’re saying.
When I was a child
I caught a fleeting glimpse
Out of the corner of my eye.
I turned to look but it was gone
I cannot put my finger on it now
The child is grown,
The dream is gone.
but I have become comfortably numb." - Pink Floyd
I have a theory that the markets (and the American people in general) aren’t irrational, they are simply shell-shocked after suffering a very traumatic group financial experience…
To be shell-shocked is to be "mentally confused, upset, or exhausted as a result of excessive stress" and the most common symptoms are: Fatigue, slower reaction times, indecision, disconnection from one’s surroundings, and inability to prioritize - That certainly sounds like our Congress doesn’t it? Combat stress disorder was first diagnosed in WWI, when 10% of the troops were killed and 56% wounded - far worse than had been experienced in previous wars. Our current financial crisis has similarly affected more people than any previous crisis with almost everyone knowing someone who is bankrupt or lost their jobs or homes and almost no one escaped the carnage of the downturn without some financial damage.
Combat fatigue may go a long way to explaining the severe drop-off in volume that has plagued the markets since March, with participation now down to 25% of where we were last January and that leaves us open to the blatant sort of market manipulation that Karl Denninger caught last week as well as the usual nonsense we get daily from HFT programs that drive the market with such precision that we are able to tell how the day is going to go by simply checking our hourly volume targets. Here’s a clip from CNBC where a floor trader discusses market manipulation as a fact of trading (2 mins in).
As Nicholas Santiago points out on In The Money Stocks, "January is usually a very high volume month, yet it has started off the New Year even lighter than the last two months of 2009. Light volume markets are very difficult to short. Hence the old saying, ‘never short a dull market’." Not only is the market volume light, but over 60% of the trading volume is concentrated on 5 stocks: AIG, C, BAC, FNM and FRE!
We have often noted that high-volume (relatively) days almost always tend to be down days and PSW Members can tell you how the…
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Hi-Ho Long-Term Silver Bulls!
by Andrew Wilkinson - November 18th, 2009 4:15 pm
Today’s tickers: SLV, EWT, CL, BG, ILMN, COH, TMO, SPG, BG, ADSK & SLM
SLV - iShares Silver Trust ETF – A bull call spread in the January 2011 contract on the silver ETF today suggests shares of the SLV may rally significantly over the next year and two months time. Shares of the SLV are currently up 0.5% to $18.23. The silver-bull purchased a ratio call spread by buying 3,000 calls at the January 23 strike for an average premium of 1.93 apiece, and selling 6,000 calls at the higher January 30 strike for about 90 cents each. The net cost of the transaction is reduced to just 13 cents per contract. Shares of the fund must rally at least 27% before the investor breaks even at a price of $23.13. The trader stands ready to accumulate maximum potential profits of 6.87 per contract if the stock surges up to $30.00 by January 2011.
EWT - iShares MSCI Taiwan Index ETF – A massive bearish play on the Taiwan Index exchange-traded fund caught our attention this afternoon with shares of the EWT down 0.5% to $12.64 in late-day trading. It appears one investor established a bearish risk reversal in the December contract to position for potential share price declines through expiration. The trader sold 31,000 calls at the December 13 strike for 20 cents premium apiece, spread against the purchase of 31,000 puts at the lower December 12 strike for 20 cents each. The sale of the calls exactly offset the cost of buying the puts. Essentially the reversal is a “free” bet that shares of the EWT will trend lower ahead of the 2010. The investor responsible for the transaction is likely long shares of the underlying fund and seeking protection to the downside. If shares fall beneath $12.00, the value of the underlying position is protected. However, if shares of the fund rally by expiration, the trader risks having shares of the stock called from him at $13.00 apiece.
CL - Colgate-Palmolive Co. – Speculation that Reckitt Benckiser Group may acquire Colgate-Palmolive spurred an all-out call option feeding frenzy on CL today and lifted shares of the U.S. company to a new 52-week high of $86.33. Investors flooded the November and December contracts, scooping up call options to position for further upward movement in the price of the underlying. The sudden surge in demand for Colgate-Palmolive options in the midst of takeover chatter boosted…
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Regions Financial options remain bearish
by Andrew Wilkinson - April 23rd, 2009 4:32 pm
Today’s tickers: RF, MSFT, F, VMW, FXI, AGN, WYE, XRT & COH
RF Regions Financial Corporation – The banking firm has slipped by more than 5% to $5.50 today, spurring option traders to heavily favor puts by a factor of four times to every call in action on the stock. We observed one investor looking to profit from further downward movement in shares by enacting a put spread in the near-term May contract. At the May 5.0 strike price he purchased 15,000 puts for an average premium of 50 cents apiece spread against the sale of 15,000 puts at the May 4.0 strike for 25 cents each. The net cost of the spread amounts to 25 cents and yields a maximum potential profit of 75 cents if shares decline all the way to $4.00 by expiration. He begins to garner profits to the downside beginning at the breakeven share price of $4.75. Another bearish trader targeted the now in-the-money May 6.0 strike price and appears to have bought 13,000 puts for an average premium of 1.05. Pessimism on the stock spread to the June 7.0 strike price where it appears that one investor sold 2,500 calls for 70 cents apiece in exchange for getting long 2,500 puts at the in-the-money June 7.0 strike price for 2.05 per contract. The net cost of the downside protection amounts to 1.35 and has already begun to amass profits for this investor as shares are currently below the breakeven point on the trade of $5.65.
MSFT Microsoft Corporation – Shares have dipped slightly by less than 1% to $18.65 ahead of its earnings conference call scheduled for 5:30 PM (EST) today. Street estimates place third quarter earnings at 39 cents per share. Our attention was drawn to one bullish investor looking to get long of call options in the October contract. It appears that this trader sold 5,113 puts at the October 16 strike price for a premium of 1.19 apiece in order to finance the purchase of 5,113 calls at the October 21 strike for 1.11 each. The investor has banked an 8 cent credit on the trade and is looking for shares to rally by about 13% by expiration in order to for the calls to land in-the-money, and for the premium on the calls to grow richer over time.
F Ford Motor Co. – Shares of the automotive company have rallied by more than 2.5% to…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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