Posts Tagged ‘consumers saving’

San Francisco Fed Concerned About Consumer Deleveraging

Courtesy of Tyler at Zero Hedge

San Francisco Fed Concerned About Consumer Deleveraging

One of the core macroeconomic themes that Zero Hedge has been expounding on since inception, which mirrors some of the major concerns of David Rosenberg, has been the evaporation of consumer wealth, income and equity as a function of both declining stock and real asset values and persistently high consumer debt. In an economic paper, the San Francisco Federal Reserve confirms that these concerns are not unfounded, and could be the very core of the processes that undermine the administration’s attempts to restore economic growth.

While the administration is doing all it can through various media conduits to imprint the idea that inflation is all but a guaranteed reality at this point, so that consumers begin borrowing at an expansive pace yet again, consumer leveraging is exactly the process that has commenced unwinding, and the obvious impact on the personal saving rate which has been growing at a dramatic pace, has been visible throughout the economy. And as the consumer deleverages additionally, deflation is a certainty, as the combined impact of asset value decline and associated leverage flow through the economy, further depressed prices of goods and services. The four charts below from the Fed’s release strike at the heart of the administration’s faulty attempt to relever the US consumer.


 

Unfortunately for Bernanke and Geithner, the deleveraging process has commenced, and regardless of how many treasuries are issued, and how much additional debt the U.S. incurs, the demand side for credit is just not there, sticking banks with basements full of shrinkwrapped packages of hundred dollar bills, that will sit dusty and unused for years. The only immediate impact is that at some point in the not too distant future, the U.S. will need to print bonds to satisfy just the interest payments on these very bonds, which is an unsustainable state and only has one outcome.

In a very amusing section from the release, the San Fran Fed is discussing the financial behaviour of the consumer, when in fact the very same words are 100% applicable to the U.S. Treasury itself:

More than 20 years ago, economist Hyman Minsky (1986) proposed a “financial instability hypothesis.” He argued that prosperous times can often induce borrowers to accumulate debt beyond their ability to repay


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Zero Hedge

"Credible Evidence" Shows Turkish Authorities Raped And Tortured Detainees Since 'Failed' Coup

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via MiddleEastEye.net,

Human rights group Amnesty International said on Sunday it had "credible evidence" of abuse and torture of people detained in sweeping arrests since Turkey's 15 July attempted military coup.

The Lond...



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Chart School

Gann Angles on the Dow Jones Industrials

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Let's review the Dow Jones Industrial with Gann Angles.

We have jump to the long Gann Angle sourced from the 2007 highs, this is major resistance. A charge to 19,000 is required to bust this line. However this blog suspects more of the same consolidation along the angle. If there sellers are in charge then this is were they start to unload.


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NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote...

..“It cost me mil...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Yellen Still Waiting for Overwhelming Evidence to Warrant Hike (Bloomberg)

For Federal Reserve officials, getting better never seems to rise to good enough.

Stock Investors Pay Up for Peace of Mind (Wall Street Journal)

Investors are pouring billions of dollars into funds that promise to minimize market swings, highlighting the anxiety that prevails after seven years of stock gains.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Election Forecast Silliness

Courtesy of Mish.

In less than a month, Nate Silver’s 2016 Presidential Election Forecast has jumped wildly.

Odds of Donal Trump winning went from 19.7% on June 29 to 47.0%. on July 24.

On July 22, I received an email from a Political oddsmaker who stated Hillary Clinton had a 74% chance of winning.

The above forecast and Silver’s June projections were ridiculous.

Online Gambling says Election Odds: Clinton v. Trump is anything but conventional.

In that article Political oddsmaker Larry Josephson projects

  • Hillary had a 74% chance of winning.
  • Trump h...


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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 25th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver; Dangerous price point to slip from

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at a chart of Silver prices over the past 8-years. After declining sharply, Silver hit its 38% Fibonacci retracement level twice at (1). After failing to break above Fibonacci retracement resistance, selling pressure picked up and Silver fell hard.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Silver is now testing its 23% Fibonacci retracement level and falling resistance at (2), inside of a short-term rising wedge pattern.

...

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ValueWalk

Relypsa Inc (RLYP) Soars On Galenica Bid

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Relypsa Inc (NDAQ:RLYP) — to be acquired by Galenica AG (VTX:GALN) for $32 per share in cash is soaring this morning up about 58 percent at the time of this writing in early morning. On the other hand shares of Galenica are down on the announcement by about 8 percent. What are the details of the deal? Here is what the sell side analysts are saying about the pharma news.

Relypsa Inc (NDAQ:RLYP) bid – analysts react

Cantor Fitzgerald

Relypsa will be acquired by Galenica for $32 per share, a 59% premium over the last closing price. We have thought that Relypsa would likely be acquired at some point, given the opportunity to grow Veltassa to be a significant commercial brand, ...



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Digital Currencies

Demystifying the blockchain: a basic user guide

 

Demystifying the blockchain: a basic user guide

By Philippa Ryan, University of Technology Sydney

Companies around the world are exploring blockchain, the technology underpinning digital currency bitcoin. In this Blockchain unleashed series, we investigate the many possible use cases for the blockchain, from the novel to the transformative.

Most people agree we do not need to know how a television works to enjoy using one. This is true of many existing and emerging technologies. Most of us happily drive cars, use mobile phones and send emails without knowing how they work. With this in mind, here is a tech-free user guide to the blockchain - the technology infrastructure behind bitcoin...



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Mapping The Market

No wonder Saudis are selling as much as they can!

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

We are getting much more energy efficient – no wonder Saudis are selling as much as they can! Who wants to be the one with trillions of dollars of oil in the ground unwanted:

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/07/the-amount-of-energy-needed-to-run-the-worlds-economy-is-decreasing-on-average/#p3

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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