Posts Tagged ‘CRI’

Harley-Davidson Calls Pop as Bulls Position to Ride Rally Higher

Today’s tickers: HOG, V, CRI & ANR

HOG - Harley-Davidson, Inc. – Shares in Harley-Davidson roared to life during the month of June, rising some 20.0% since June 13. Bullish players expecting the price of the underlying to continue to accelerate to the upside scooped up call options this morning. HOG’s shares are currently up 1.75% on the day to stand at $41.69 as of 11:35 am ET. Call options in the front month are the most heavily trafficked, with the July $43 strike call attracting the greatest volume. Investors exchanged more than 4,100 calls at the July $43 strike against previously existing open interest of just 33 contracts. It looks like traders purchased most of the calls at that strike for an average premium of $0.36 a-pop. Call buyers profit if shares in the motorcycle manufacturer climb another 4.0% over the current price of $41.69 to surpass the average breakeven point at $43.36 by July expiration. Harley-Davidson’s shares traded within pennies of the breakeven price back in April when the stock rallied to a 2-year high of $43.15. The July contract calls expire four days before HOG reports second-quarter earnings. In-the-money calls set to expire in August received some attention, as well. It looks like some 2,100 calls may have been purchased for an average premium of $2.74 each at the August $40 strike. The calls changing hands at this strike could be closing positions as open interest at this strike is sufficient to cover volume generated thus far in the session. The rise in demand for HOG calls helped lift options implied volatility on the stock 7.4% to 32.23% by 11:50 am in New York.

V - Visa, Inc. – The run-up in Visa’s shares sparked by the Fed’s decision to impose a $0.22 cap on swipe fees rather…
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Testy Tuesday Morning

Wow – what a lot of work to get back to last Tuesday's high! 

As usual, the vast majority of gains came in pre-market trading and the rest came in light-volume, early morning trading while the rest of the day was dominated by every buyer finding a willing seller for 75% of the day's volume.  We saw what happened on Thursday when someone big wants to sell and there are no buyers so we'll see how long the bull's luck (manufactured or otherwise) will hold out as we begin to get economic data along with some early earnings reports.

The Ag sector popped 2% yesterday ahead of tonight's earings from MOS with MON checking in tomorrow morning so we'll see how wise those last-minute bets were in short order.  SONC also has earnings tonight and we like those guys long-term.  SONC makes a decent buy/write candidate as you can buy the stock for $10.29 and sell June $10 puts and calls for $2.25 for a net entry of $8.04 with a very nice 24% profit if called away at $10 and an average entry of $9.02 (a 12% discount) if more stock is put to you below $10 in June. 

FDO and WOR also report tomorrow morning.  FDO will be interesting but a weak dollar probably hurt them last quarter.  Tomorrow night we hear from BBBY, BLUD, OHB and Sonic competitor RT, who seem a bit pricey at $7.50.  Thursday we get our first real builder, LEN along with STZ and TXI.  After the bell on Thursday we hear from APOL, CRI and SCHN with GBX and PSMT on Friday.  AA officially kicks of earnings season next Monday with GAP, INFY, KBH, BGG, SCHW, SHFL, INTC and JPM highlighting the reporters. 

We have plenty of data this week including Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales at 10 am along with December Auto Sales throughout the day (did you get a new car for Christmas?).  Tomorrow is jobs day, with the ADP Report and Challenger Job Cuts ahead of the bell followed by ISM Services (yesterday's ISM was a nice beat) and, of course, Crude Inventories at 10:30 which are unlikely to sustain $82 oil (USO Jan $40 puts for .80 are a good way to play this)We talked about the other stuff yesterday so I won't repeat it – suffice to say
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Gold Mminers ETF Attracts Bullish Option Plays

Today’s tickers: GDX, CF, S, XHB, PCLN, XLF, CX, CAR, BZH, CRI & ERTS

GDX – Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF – Shares of the gold ETF that invests in shares of precious metals mining companies are up 0.5% to $49.53 with one hour remaining in the trading session. Option implied volatility has come down from 54% to 46% recently as gold’s price has surged. Nearer-term investors sought downside protection on the fund, whereas long-term traders initiated bullish plays. Investors hoping to lock in gains experienced during the recent run-up in the price of gold purchased 4,000 puts at the January 2010 47 strike for 3.05 apiece. Further along, at the March 2010 44 strike, another 6,000 puts were picked up for an average premium of 3.10 per contract. Finally, long-term bullishness took the form of a call spread in the January 2011 contract. It appears one investor purchased about 5,000 calls at the January 50 strike for an average of 9.52 each, marked against the sale of the same number of calls at the higher January 55 strike for 7.55 each. The net cost of the optimistic play amounts to 1.97 per contract. The trader stands to accrue maximum potential profits of 3.03 each if shares of GDX rally 11% over the current price to $55.00 by expiration in January 2011.

CF – CF Industries Holdings, Inc. – Bearish option plays appeared on the manufacturer of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products today after the firm rejected rival Agrium Inc.’s increased takeover offer of $4.52 billion. Shares of CF are currently trading 4% lower to $77.20. Investors purchased put options at the now in-the-money December 80 strike for an average premium of 6.70 apiece. Perhaps put-buyers are protecting long stock positions. Otherwise, they are hoping to accrue profits if shares of CF decline through the effective breakeven price of $73.30. Another trader unraveled a previously established bullish play in the January 2010 contract. The investor originally placed an extremely bullish 8,500-lot call spread at the January 90/100 strikes. However, the trader abandoned bullish sentiment today by closing out the spread. Option implied volatility on CF jumped 7.5% over Monday’s closing value of 52.9% to reach an intraday high of 55.9%.

S – Sprint Nextel Corp. – Shares of the wireless communications company surrendered a portion of gains experienced during yesterday’s 20% rally to an intraday high of $3.43. The stock…
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Carter’s Earnings Cancel Sends Implied Options Volatility Skywards

Today’s tickers: CRI, RDC, XL, VIX, XHB, XRX, EFA, WYNN, BIDU & XHB

CRI – Carter’s Inc. – The more than 20,500 option contracts exchanged thus far today on the children’s apparel company trumps existing open interest of just 3,342 lots by a factor of 6. Shares of Carter’s are suffering significant erosion after the firm announced plans to delay its third-quarter earnings release, originally scheduled for this evening, perhaps until November 12, 2009. News of the postponement sent shares tumbling 25.5% lower to $21.16. Investor uncertainty jumped through the roof as evidenced by the massive 66% rise in option implied volatility this morning to an intraday high of 90%. Bullish investors took advantage of today’s declines by trading near-term call options. One trader put on a ratio call spread by purchasing 1,000 calls at the in-the-money November 20 strike for 2.30 apiece, and by selling 2,000 calls at the higher November 25 strike for 55 pennies each. The net cost of buying the calls is reduced to 1.20 per contract. The effective breakeven price of $21.20 on the transaction allows the investor to profit by expiration in November if shares of CRI rise at least 4 cents. Maximum potential profits of 3.80 per contract are available if the stock recovers up to $25.00. Losses would begin to accumulate if any rally lifted the share price above $28.80.

RDC – Rowan Companies, Inc. – Option traders scooped up put options on the provider of contract drilling services while shares slumped 2.75% to $24.90. The January 2010 22.5 strike had at least 1,400 puts purchased for an average premium of 1.16 apiece. The now in-the-money January 25 strike attracted traders who picked up 1,300 puts for about 2.15 each. Bearish sentiment spread to the April contract where another 2,000 puts were coveted at the April 22.5 strike for 2.02 a-pop. Finally, the most action took place at the in-the-money April 25 strike where 9,800 puts were purchased for an average of 3.18 each. Perhaps put-buying investors are aiming to protect the value of long positions in the underlying. Otherwise, traders placing bearish bets on RDC hope to accumulate profits on further share price weakness over the next several months.

XL – XL Capital Ltd. – Bullish investors took aim at XL Capital put options in the January contract this afternoon. Shares of XL are slightly higher by less than 0.25% to…
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Phil's Favorites

Stupidity Well Anchored: Absurdity of Inflation Expectations in Graphic Form

Courtesy of Mish.

The amount of sheer nonsense written about inflation expectations is staggering.

Let’s take a look at some recent articles before making a mockery of them with a single picture.

Expectations Problem

On July 17, 2017, Rich Miller writing for Bloomberg proclaimed The Fed Has an Inflation Expectations Problem.

Expectations matter because they shape how households and companies act and thus can go a long way in determining where inflation actually ends up. Consumers accustomed to meager inflation will resist paying up for goods and services.

“Lower inflation expectations make it all the more diff...



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Chart School

Tech Trades Squeeze Stops; Russell 2000 Approaches Resistance

Courtesy of Declan.

There is a bit of an overreach on today's action as the level of loss was light. However, the much-anticipated breakouts in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 look like they will have to wait a little longer. Both Tech indices saw the squeeze put on tight long stops, but not enough to suggest a panic sell-off is imminent. However, any sell-off has to be watched; losses below the 50-day MA would be concerning.


The Nasdaq 100 is looking a little more vulnerable with the MACD trigger 'sell' and +DI/-DI sell' trigger. Look to this index for leads.
...

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Zero Hedge

A Look At How Nestle Makes Billions Selling You Groundwater In A Bottle

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

A few weeks ago we shared with readers a lawsuit filed in Connecticut against Nestle Waters North America, Inc. alleging that the water they marketed as Poland 'Natural Spring Water' was actually just bottled groundwater...the same water that runs through the taps of many American households. 

Now a new investigation from Bloomberg Businessweek reveals how large water bottling companies choose their plant locations based not on the steady supply of pristine, natural drinking water, as their labels and other marketing campaigns would lead you to believe, but based on which economically depressed municipalities...



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ValueWalk

UAW's Loss At Nissan Auto Plant Masks Genuine Progress For Organized Labor

By The Conversation. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Harley Shaiken, University of California, Berkeley

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Get our entire 10-part series on Carl Icahn and other famous investors in PDF for free! Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet or print it! Sign up below.

A spirited, decade-long effort by workers to organize a union at the sprawling Nissan assembly plant in Canton, Mississippi, seemed to drive into a ditch on August 5, when officials finally tallied the elec...



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Digital Currencies

Jamie Dimon Faces Market Abuse Claim Over "False, Misleading" Bitcoin Comments

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A week after Jamie Dimon made headlines by proclaiming Bitcoin a "fraud" and anyone who owns it as "stupid," the JPMorgan CEO faces a market abuse claim for "spreading false and misleading information" about bitcoin.

Unless you have been living under a rock for the past week, you will be well aware of JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's panicked outburst wi...



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Insider Scoop

3 Reasons Intuit Will Continue To Dominate The Tax Business

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related INTU Intuit's Stock Is Still Enticing, Even After A Big 2-Year Run Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades F...

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Members' Corner

"Citron Exposes Ubiquiti Networks" But TNN Says "Not So Fast"

What do you think? (There's a comment section below )

"CITRON EXPOSES UBIQUITI NETWORKS" 

Does Ubiquiti Networks (NASDAQ:UBNT) actually have real products that sell to consumers? Of course! So did Valeant and WorldCom, but that does not stop its financials from having every indication of being completely fraudulent.

Citron will detail a series of alarming red flags and detail how Ubiquiti Networks is deceiving the investing public.

Read the full report here.

******

Rebutal by The Nattering Naybob, ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Courtesy of Rachel ShafferUniversity of Washington

Assessing the data. LightField Studios/shutterstock.com

Toxicology’s founding father, Paracelsus, is famous for proclaiming that “...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

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Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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