This is just getting silly: perhaps the next update on ICI mutual fund flows should occur if there is an inflow for once…ever again. In the meantime, ICI reports we have just recorded the 17th consecutive weekly outflow from domestic equity mutual funds, and what’s worse for mutual funds’ depleted liquidity ratios, it is now accelerating, hitting a total of $4.3 billion, a more than 50% increase from last week’s $2.7 billion. YTD outflows have now hit $54 billion, as ever more capital is going into far safer fixed income instruments. As a reminder, here is what Rosenberg said on the issue yesterday: "As for liquidity ratios, equity funds portfolio manages have theirs at an all-time low of 3.4%, down from 3.8% in June. Tack on the fact that there are really not very many shorts to be covered – since the market peaked in April, short interest is 4.3% of the S&P 500 market cap (in August 2008 it was 6%) and there’s not a whole lot of underlying fund-flow support for the stock market here." As for this being a contrarian signal, hopefully all those who see this as a buying opportunity can also find a way to make the now retiring baby boomers about 10 years younger and force them away from fixed income capital reallocation. Oh, and fix the broken market and restore investor confidence that the casino is only modestly rigged.
In the meantime, no matter what the market does (and somehow it has been flat during the entire period of record redemptions: good to know someone is putting capital into stocks), on a short-term basis, nobody wants to touch it with a ten foot pole. Retail is no longer fascinated by speculating and day trading: after all why should they – they get better odds in Vegas… where the decor puts the aging CNBC female anchor crew to shame.
Our charts predicted a flatline and a flatline is what we’re getting!
I do so love it when a plan comes together (see David Fry’s chart). In yesterday morning’s post I predicted that bad data would send us down at 10 am and I rushed out our first Alert to Members at 9:37 with a call to go naked on our DIA Mattress play, which effectively flips our virtual portfolio bearish and we even added the QQQQ July $46 puts at .85, which we exited just one hour and four minutes later at $1.05 (up 28%) as we 1/2 covered our Mattress Plays back to neutral.
We do a lot of day trading on options expiration week – taking advantage of the lower premiums. As I said I would in the morning post, we shorted gold at $1,250 and we even shorted AAPL for a nice, quick gain before stopping out. At 10:37 I had already said to Members: "I’m done with short plays here. Not going long but that’s a lot of money already and I’m not greedy. We’ll see if we hold this 1% dip first," meaning we got the 1% pullback we expected on our 5% rule and we know not to be greedy with our day trades! At 10:57 we flipped to TNA June $47 calls at $1.20 and we rode those up to $1.60 (up 33%) at 11:54 but it was our TBT short put play that made me the most happy as brand-new Member Flipsiceland told me at 12:12:
Thanks Phil, just paid for my 3 month ‘prescription’ for the members service, in one and half hours.
That’s what I really love about my job, as it says on our logo: High Finance for Real People – Fun and Profits! We love making profits and we also like to have fun while we’re doing it… The fun didn’t stop there as we had a nice winner on OIH puts, Copper Futures long and we hit the turn on the nose as I warned Members at 2:25 that: "Volume is very light with just 80M shares on the Dow at 2pm so VERY stickable but I would have to short into a stick save at this point as we shouldn’t be going up other than some desperate window dressing that can be quickly unwound" and at 3:19 we hit the turn almost on the nose as I said to our Members: "Volume at 3:15…
This is not like most career fields, where an average teacher, middle manager, or sales person can sustain a living. An average performance in trading is one in which the trader does not make money at all. The Times article cites research suggesting support for the often-cited statistic that 80% of daytraders lose money.
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at email@example.com with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
Steel giant ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) has completed the divestment of its 78% stake in European port handling and logistics company ATIC Services S.A. (ATIC) to HES Beheer for €155.4 million (roughly $213 million).
With this transaction, HES Beheer now owns 100% stake in ATIC where it previously held 22% stake. The transaction reflects ArcelorMittal`s strategy of selective deposal of non-core assets.
ArcelorMittal posted a net loss of $0.2 billion or 12 cents per share in first-quarter 2014, narrower than a net loss of $0.3 billion or 21 cents a year ago.
Revenues inched up 0.2% year over year to $19.8 billion in the reported quarter. Sales were almost unchanged from the prior quarter as improved steel shipments were partly offset by lower...
Divergence with small cap stocks and junk bonds persists.
Credit spreads widening suggests building short-term financial stress.
Markets oversold and how risk areas react will be telling.
One of the most widely followed market theories is Dow Theory, which has been around for more than 100 years. The essence of Dow Theory is to focus on confirmations or non-confirmations between the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the Dow Jones Industrial Average for assessing market trends and reversals. If one of the indexes breaks out to a new high while the other does not, we have a non-confirmation and the potential for a market reversal.
Similar to Dow Theory I like to look for confirmation between the stock market and the credit markets. When one market does not confirm the other, caution is ...
A large call spread initiated on Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (Ticker: OREX) on Monday morning looks for shares in the name to rally approximately 30% by September expiration. The September expiration is noteworthy as the company awaits the results of the FDA’s review of its resubmitted New Drug Application (NDA) for NB32, an investigational medication being evaluated for weight loss, after the review was extended for three months back in June. The upcoming Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date is September 11, 2014, according to a press release issued by the company. Shares in Orexigen today are up roughly 0.40% at $5.34 as of 2:15 p.m. ET.
Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic. But last Thursday’s news of the Malaysian airliner tragically getting shot down over Ukraine, coupled with Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, had the makings of a potential Black Swan event, which in my view is the only thing that could derail the relentless bull march higher in stocks.
Nevertheless, when it became clear that the airline...
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
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We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about."
All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely. From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.
First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices. Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment. Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer. For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...
I just wanted to be sure you saw this. There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.
If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.
Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.
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d/b/a PhilStockWorld (PSW) nor its affiliates
warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only intended at the moment of their issue as conditions quickly change. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.