Posts Tagged ‘EDC’

TGIF – Stop the Rally, We Want to get Off!

This rally is never going to end!

Just look at this chart – we're breaking every level.  THIS time is different – not only are we going to go on to 1,450, we're going to 1,500 and 1,550 and then 1,600 and then we're going to 1,700 and 1,800 and 1,900 and then we're going on to take on 2,000 – yeeeeeergh!  

Sorry, I was channeling my inner Dean…  Now that I've calmed down, I realize that this chart that got me so excited was actually the chart from March 5th and, as you can see from my end of February headlines like "Sell in March and Go Away," "This is the End – But For Who?" and "Fake-Out Thursday (March 8th) – Dollar Sacrificed on an Altar of Lies" – where I pointed out that rumors of more Fed easing (by John Hilsenrath of the WSJ, of course) had dumped the Dollar to 79 and that was accounting for the 1% gain in the S&P that day so – don't be fooled!  

The ECB had just dropped $712,800,000,000 in fresh stimulus on the 29th and I asked "Will Another $712Bn Buy Us Another Day at 13,000?"  Was I early?  Yes.  Did we miss the end of the rally?  Yes.  In fact, our $25,000 Portfolio at the time was so bearish, we were down almost $8,000 with huge bearish bets like 10 Short XRT March $55 calls, 10 short GLL March $17 puts, 10 April SCO 31/39 bull call spreads and 10 SCO short March $34 puts, 5 short FAS $88 calls, 5 March TZA $18 calls, 10 short SQQQ June $14 puts, 40 USO April $40 puts, 5 short FAS March $75 calls, 10 long FAS March $85 calls and 10 short FAS March $89 calls (a bearish spread), 10 TLT March $114/115 bull call spreads and 10 DIA March $129 puts.  

The only bullish play we had at the time in our virtual portfolio was DMND, where we had 4 hopeless June $29 calls which we lucked out on when they spike on rumors in mid-March.  Every other bullish position had been dumped and we were practically 100% bearish because the rally, at that point, seemed totally ridiculous.  Just a months later, the Portfolio turned around and was up $8,000 and by May
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Monday Monetary Madness – This is what the Yield’s Like when Fed Doves Cry

 

 

 

Why do we scream at each other
This is what it sounds like
When doves cry – Prince

It's no coincidence that this week we will be hearing from Fed Governors Kocherllakota (1pm Tues), Hoenig (12:30 Weds), Plosser (1:30 Weds), and Bullard (9:15 Thurs) ahead of our 2-Year Note Auction (1pm Tues), 5-Year Note Auction (1pm Weds) and 7-Year Note Auction (1pm Thursday) as the Fed needs to bring out 4 of it's 5 most hawkish members to talk up the Dollar (by talking down QE3) to keep those rates paid as low as possible for Treasury

Once the Hawks drive the rates down and the notes are sold, the Doves will once again be released to talk them back up by extolling the glories of QE3 – completely reversing whatever was said before just as the Hawks will once again be called upon to reverse what the Doves say at a later date – when they need rates to come back down.  The joke of it all is that traders will react to each statement, every time, as if it's a "game changer" and adjust their positions to reflect the new reality of the moment.  It reminds me of a quote from Orwell's 1984:

As soon as all the corrections which happened to be necessary in any particular number of The Times had been assembled and collated, that number would be reprinted, the original copy destroyed, and the corrected copy placed on the files in its stead. This process of continuous alteration was applied not only to newspapers, but to books, periodicals, pamphlets, posters, leaflets, films, sound-tracks, cartoons, photographs – to every kind of literature or documentation which might conceivably hold any political or ideological significance.

Day by day and almost minute by minute the past was brought up to date. In this way every prediction made by the Party could be shown by documentary evidence to have been correct, nor was any item of news,


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Zero Hedge

Loonie Hits 4-Month Lows As Oil Sinks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The Canadian Dollar has now dropped 5 straight days, breaking above 1.3200 to the USD - its weakest in 4 months - as FX and equity markets catch up to oil's recent demise...

We are sure this will 'help' US corporate earnings... but when has that ever mattered.

...

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Chart School

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook: Activity Stabilizes in July, Outlook Improving

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for July. The latest general business activity index increased in July, up 17 points, coming in at -1.3, up from -18.3 in June. Other measures of manufacturing activity reflected increasing and improving conditions.

Here is an excerpt from the latest report:

Texas factory activity held steady in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of stat...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

G20 growth promise keeps global shares near nine-month high (Reuters)

World shares held near nine-month highs on Monday after G20 finance chiefs said over the weekend they would use "all policy tools" to lift global growth.

Stocks That Ignore Defaults Are Cruising for a Bruising (Bloomberg View)

A worrying trend is developing in the corporate bond market: Even with borrowing costs at or near their lowest ever, companies are increasingly unable to pay their debts. There have already been enough defaults around the world this year to suggest that the record set in 2009 migh...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 25th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver; Dangerous price point to slip from

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at a chart of Silver prices over the past 8-years. After declining sharply, Silver hit its 38% Fibonacci retracement level twice at (1). After failing to break above Fibonacci retracement resistance, selling pressure picked up and Silver fell hard.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Silver is now testing its 23% Fibonacci retracement level and falling resistance at (2), inside of a short-term rising wedge pattern.

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Phil's Favorites

Job Openings vs. Number of Unemployed; Is Being Unemployed Just "Bad Luck"?

Courtesy of Mish.

Washington Post writer Matt O’Brien proposes Getting Stuck Without a Job is Mostly a Matter of Bad Luck.

That notion is ridiculous.

While there may be instances of “bad luck”, in general, the employees with the weakest skills were the first to be let go and the last to be rehired.

O’Brien did post some interesting charts about the length and strengths of recessions vs. long term unemployment.

That chart is interesting, but all it really does is quantify what shou...



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ValueWalk

Relypsa Inc (RLYP) Soars On Galenica Bid

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Relypsa Inc (NDAQ:RLYP) — to be acquired by Galenica AG (VTX:GALN) for $32 per share in cash is soaring this morning up about 58 percent at the time of this writing in early morning. On the other hand shares of Galenica are down on the announcement by about 8 percent. What are the details of the deal? Here is what the sell side analysts are saying about the pharma news.

Relypsa Inc (NDAQ:RLYP) bid – analysts react

Cantor Fitzgerald

Relypsa will be acquired by Galenica for $32 per share, a 59% premium over the last closing price. We have thought that Relypsa would likely be acquired at some point, given the opportunity to grow Veltassa to be a significant commercial brand, ...



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Digital Currencies

Demystifying the blockchain: a basic user guide

 

Demystifying the blockchain: a basic user guide

By Philippa Ryan, University of Technology Sydney

Companies around the world are exploring blockchain, the technology underpinning digital currency bitcoin. In this Blockchain unleashed series, we investigate the many possible use cases for the blockchain, from the novel to the transformative.

Most people agree we do not need to know how a television works to enjoy using one. This is true of many existing and emerging technologies. Most of us happily drive cars, use mobile phones and send emails without knowing how they work. With this in mind, here is a tech-free user guide to the blockchain - the technology infrastructure behind bitcoin...



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Mapping The Market

No wonder Saudis are selling as much as they can!

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

We are getting much more energy efficient – no wonder Saudis are selling as much as they can! Who wants to be the one with trillions of dollars of oil in the ground unwanted:

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/07/the-amount-of-energy-needed-to-run-the-worlds-economy-is-decreasing-on-average/#p3

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Promotions

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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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