Posts Tagged ‘GRPN’

ING US Call Buyers Look For Shares To Extend Post-IPO Rally

 

Today’s tickers: VOYA, GRPN & SIGM

VOYA - ING US, Inc. – Shares in ING Group’s U.S. retirement, investment and insurance business are up as much as 8.0% today to $26.98, the highest level since the company’s May 2nd IPO. ING US was rated new ‘buy’ at BTIG LLC with a 12-month target share price of $31.00 today. The stock has rallied nearly 40% over the IPO price of $19.50, and some options traders are positioning for the price of the underlying to extend gains during the second half of the year. November expiry options are the most active contracts by volume on VOYA today, with notable fresh interest in the Nov $25 and $30 calls. Traders appear to have purchased around 200 lots at each striking price for average premiums of $2.71 and $1.14 each, respectively. Call buyers stand ready to profit at November expiration should shares in ING US rally another 2.7% and 15% to surpass average breakeven prices of $27.71 and $31.14, respectively. Meanwhile, traders snapping up Nov $20 and $25 strike puts are positioned to make money in the event of a pullback in the price of the underlying through November expiration. The company is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings ahead of the open on Thursday. Overall options volume on VOYA is sizable, with more than 1,500 contracts in play as of 12:15 p.m. ET versus overall open interest on the stock of 190 contracts.

GRPN - Groupon, Inc. – A large trade in Groupon options in the early going on Monday looks for the price of the underlying to remain in the single-digits through January of 2014. Shares in GRPN are down 0.45% on the day at $6.94 as of 12:20 p.m. ET. The stock has increased roughly 30% since the company reported better-than-expected first-quarter revenue and a narrower-than-expected first-quarter loss on May 8th. It looks like one strategist betting shares in Groupon will trade below $10.00 through the start of 2014 sold around 50,000 calls at the Jan 2014 $10 strike for…
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Put Options Eye Fresh Lows For Groupon

 

Today’s tickers: GRPN, DLTR & CHS

GRPN - Groupon, Inc. – Shares in Groupon are up 11.11% at $11.00 today on expectations the company may report better-than-expected first-quarter earnings after the final bell. Options on the stock are quite active as well, but not all of the positioning is looking for a positive earnings surprise tonight. Fresh interest building in the June expiry puts portends potential fresh record lows for the shares in the near future. One-by-two June $7.0/$9.0 ratio put spreads purchased this morning position traders to profit from limited bearish movement in the price of the underlying during the next five weeks. Of the more than 3,300 put options in play at the June $7.0 and $9.0 strikes, the largest blocks of options changing hands are the purchase of 486 $9.0 strike puts spread against the sale of 972 $7.0 strike options, done at a net premium outlay of $0.33 per contract. The ratio spread may be a profitable strategy should Groupon’s shares drop 21.1% to slip beneath the effective breakeven point at $8.67. Maximum possible profits of $1.67 per contract are available on the positions if shares in the name drop 36.4% to settle at $7.00 at June expiration. Groupon’s shares on Friday traded down to an all-time low of $9.63.

DLTR - Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. – Bearish options are in play on Dollar Tree, Inc. this morning ahead of the discount consumer goods retailer’s first-quarter earnings report on Thursday. Shares in Dollar Tree are currently down 1.5% at $101.05 as of 12:50 in New York. It looks like the investor buying a sizable debit put spread on DLTR this morning paid an average net premium of $3.31 per contract for a roughly 3,000-lot June $85/$100 spread. The position makes money if shares in…
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Monday Musings – New Quarter Not So Shiny

I played poker this weekend.

I entered a few tournaments in Atlantic City, made it to a couple of final tables but didn't win any.  It did remind me that a bluff can only get you so far – at a certain point, you have to actually have the cards in order to win.  As I pointed out to Members this morning – the Global Markets have bluffed their way through the first quarter and now comes earnings season and it's time for the economy to show it's cards and now we'll see who ends up with all the chips!  

Just this morning we got this disturbing data:  

These are NOT cards you want to be playing with unless you are forced.  That's the thing, GS, JPM, MS, Fund Managers, etc – they HAVE to play.  Since they have to play whatever cards that are dealt – they do the logical thing – THEY BLUFF!  Although what's scary about the Banksters is that, when they bluff, it's like the dealer bluffing because they control so much of the game and their only real goal is to get you to play so they can rake…
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Groupon Options Draw Sizable Spread Strategy

Today’s tickers: GRPN, PNR & NVDA

GRPN - Groupon, Inc. – The provider of a diverse mix of local daily deals featuring anything from Botox injections and manicures to fine-dining experiences and cupcakes, popped up on our scanners this morning after a sizable options combo play was initiated in the May expiry. Shares in Groupon are in negative territory this afternoon, but earlier increased as much as 2.6% to touch an intraday high of $18.76. The stock, which reached a peak of $27.78 in its first day as a publicly traded company back in November, just about halved in value in the weeks following the IPO. Quick rallies in the share price paired with subsequent pullbacks have been a fairly consistent pattern for GRPN shares in 2012, though recently the stock price has been less volatile, trading in the range of roughly $16.25 to $18.60 in the past few weeks. Perhaps the relative stagnation in the shares spurred one option strategist to position for the stock to take another stab at the upside in the next couple of months. The trader appears to have sold 5,000 May $13 strike put options in order to partially finance the purchase of a 5,000-lot May $19/$22 call spread, all for a net premium outlay of $0.55 per contract. The three-way spread prepares the trader to make money should GRPN’s shares rally 7.8% over the current price of $18.14 to surpass the average breakeven point at $19.55 by expiration in May. Maximum possible profits of $2.45 per contract are available on the position as long as shares in the daily deals provider jump 21.3% to settle above $22.00 at expiration. Groupon, Inc. is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings after the market closes on May 8th.

PNR - Pentair, Inc. – Shares in both…
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Friday Finale – This is the End – But for Who?

SPY DAILYA day late and a point short on the S&P.  

Our senior index finished the day at 1,358.04, just 0.96 under our 10% line at 1,359.  Oddly enough, it never actually crossed the line that we had predicted would be the top of this run in April of 2009.  It's a simple 2% overshoot of the 100% run from the S&P bottom at 666.  

If the S&P can get over the line and hold it – we will be THRILLED to finally redraw our Big Chart but, if not, then this is just the blow-off top of the range, reeling in the suckers ahead of the big reversal that no one could have possibly seen coming (except this guy but he's like 100 and just got divorced, so he's bound to be in a bad mood).  

Is there anyone who was born SINCE radio who is willing to still be bearish?  As you can see from David Fry's chart, since December 19th, other than a few red days out of over 40 – it's been tough to be a bear.  This is what it was like in 1999, when the experienced market players would be well-hedged and missing the rally while some kid who works for him quits because he bet his student loan money on Yahoo and now drives a Porsche.   

Sure 9 months later the Porsche was repossessed and the kid was flipping burgers but WE WANT TO BE THAT KID – IT'S FUN TO BE THAT KID – until it isn't again.  The funny thing is, we only gave those dot com companies Millions when they IPO'd – now we give out Billions because, of course, this time is different, it's a new paradigm, this changes everything, you have to understand the new metrics, sock puppets rule….  

McDonald's was founded in 1940 by two brothers actually named McDonald.  Ray Krok bought the chain from them and created the World's greatest franchise which now has over 26,000 franchise operations and over 6,000 company stores employing about 1.7M people worldwide selling $24Bn worth of food a year with a $5Bn net profit.  Facebook has 3,200 people but they generate $1.2M in revenues per employee ($3.8Bn) and drops $1Bn to the bottom line.  Facebook's assets are mainly IP and those are about as valuable as MySpace's assets now
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Phil's Favorites

For restaurants looking to boost profits, it's often about everything but the food

 

For restaurants looking to boost profits, it's often about everything but the food

Courtesy of Frank T. McAndrewKnox College

Lighting, layout and music can determine whether you’ll be grabbing a quick bite or staying a while. 'Diners' via www.shutterstock.com

Staying one step ahead of the competition in the hypercompetitive restaurant industry requires more than simply tinkering with the menu. Serving tasty food doesn’t do much good if customers don’t stay long enough – or never even walk through the door in the ...



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Zero Hedge

ViVa MaRooN...MaCRoN...

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

...

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ValueWalk

How Not To Get Fired With Smart Beta Investing

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.


Rob Arnott explains why “history is worse than useless” in forecasting the alpha of smart beta strategies.

Arnott on Forecasting Smart Beta

Chris Brightman asserts that multi-factor equity investing and rebalancing using robust factors is a reliable strategy for outperforming the market without the burden of excessive volatility.

Brightman on Dynamic Multi-Factor Investing

Chris Brightman asserts that multi-factor equity investing and rebalancing using robust factors is a reliable strategy for outperforming the market without the burden of excessive volatility.

How Not to Get Fired with Smart Beta Investing

Investors in smart beta strategies will and should expect bouts of underperformance, according to John West. To prepare for this inevitable bumpy road to out...



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Chart School

Markets Consolidate

Courtesy of Declan.

After two days of gains it was time for consolidation in markets. The Russell 2000 didn't get this memo and added a third day of gains managing a new closing high.


The S&P finished with a doji which tagged all-time high resistance. Technicals haven't changed from yesterday and relative performance has continued to weaken. The index just has to survive profit-taking and perhaps aggressive shorts looking to take advantage of the resistance tag.

...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil prices rebound after big draw in U.S. crude inventories (Reuters)

Oil prices rebounded from early losses on Wednesday after U.S. government data showed a larger-than-expected falloff in crude inventories, which encouraged buying after prices slid for several days on worries that a global crude glut was persisting despite cuts in output by producing countries.

Lucky, Good or Tipped Off? The Curious Case of Government Data and the Pound (The Wall Street Journal)

Some investors could be trading with knowledge of U.K. official statistics before they are publi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P 500; Dangerous place to run out of gas!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Could the “Weekly Closing Highs and Lows” of last year, be impacting stock prices in 2017? The Power of the Pattern thinks so! Below looks at the S&P 500 over the past couple of years. where we applied Fibonacci to the “Weekly Closing Highs and Lows” of last year.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The S&P 500 ran into the 161% extension level at (2) and it stopped on a dime, at the end of February. Following a small decline the rally the past two weeks has it testi...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

BDC's Crypto Corner

Hello fellow PSW-ers, it's biodieselchris here. I've been interested in cryptocurrencies (informally, "cryptos" or "coins") since 2011 when I first heard about Bitcoin, Since that time I've become somewhat of a subject matter expert and personal investor in Bitcoin and other alternative cryptocurrencies ("altcoins"). I have even started one of my own!

I've been posting comments about cryptos in Phil's daily post from time to time. Recently, Phil and I got on a call and he asked if I would like to run a blog on his site specifically about cryptos, which I thought was a great idea. My goal would be to educate members on what I know about how coins work, how I research coins (what I find interesting), how exactly one can invest (buy, hold, and sell) coins and a basic, easy-to-follow general how-to on all things crypto. In addition, other members have expressed an interest in learning more directly...



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Members' Corner

Should I buy that stock?

Courtesy of Phil Stasukaitis (pstas)

I was asked by my local investment club to do a presentation on "how to buy a stock?" As I pondered the question, I began by noting all the elements that I monitor regularly and which come in to play as part of my decision process. As the group is comprised novices to experts, I tried to gear my discussion to cover both basics and more advanced concepts.

Four Part Discussion

  1. Macro Economic Indicators
  2. Market Indexes
  3. Fundamental Analysis
  4. Technical Analysis

1. Macro Economic Indicators

We'll start with reviewing some basic concepts and measurements that have direct effects on the stock market. 

A. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

...

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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Biotech

CAR-T & CRISPR - the Future is Now

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members....it has been a while since my last post, but since many have all been on the board following the chat, it is time for a scientific lesson in a few of the companies we are long.  In addition, another revolution is coming in the medical field, and it will be touched upon as well.

CAR-T - stands for Chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and the T is for T-cell.  

From the picture above, T-cells are one cell type of our immune system that fight off infection as well as they are one player at keeping rogue cells from becoming cancerous. Unfortunately, cancer somehow evades the immune system and so it begins.

CAR-T came along in the late1980s via a brilliant scientist, Zelig Eshhar...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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