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Posts Tagged ‘Kyle Bass’

Kyle Bass With David Faber: Bernanke’s ZIRP Is An ‘Inescapable Trap;’ Muni Bond Bloodbath Beckons But “States Will NOT Default”

Courtesy of The Daily Bail  

CNBC Video – Kyle Bass with David Faber – Feb. 16, 2011 

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Video – Part 2

Source – CNBC

Municipal bond defaults on the local level are likely and investors would be better off avoiding them, according to Kyle Bass, managing director of Hayman Capital.

Bass said he generally agrees with the call by famed banking analyst Meredith Whitney, who said as many as 100 defaults are likely that will cost more than $100 billion in damage.

Though Whitney’s call has prompted substantial backlash from her colleagues in the industry, Bass said the question is more a matter of degree.

"There are going to be a number of muni defaults, but it’s where you draw the line.  Will states be allowed to default?  Will legislation be introduced to allow states to restructure?  I don’t believe that’s the case.  I believe states will not default." 


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Kyle Bass: Be Warned…

Courtesy of Karl Denninger, The Market Ticker

He sees this the way I do, and note carefully: He was right about the subprime and housing in general too. 

Two parts:

 

Note that when he presented his views years ago to the big banks, he was told "I hope to God you’re wrong."

He wasn’t.


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No Way Out For Japan

No Way Out For Japan

Courtesy of Mish

The Business Insider has a fantastic Interview With Hayman Capital Founder Kyle Bass. Bass testified at the crisis hearings in Washington, about Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, bank capital, bank leverage and derivatives. He discussed those issues with CNBC’s David Faber along with his forecast for Japan.

Here is a partial transcript.

Kyle Bass: …. China and Japan own a lot of Fannie and Freddie Debt. I think we are more sensitive to them losing money than we are to the US taxpayer losing money and I think that has to change. … Fannie and Freddie have paid $200 million into campaigns of 354 politicians over the last 10 years. This is an organization created by the lawmakers. Why are they paying the lawmakers? Let’s get rid of this structure and just have the government make mortgage loans. …

David Faber: Let’s talk briefly about some other things you are doing at Hayman. … We saw the mini-blowup in Dubai, we have heard a lot about Greece, when you look at the totality of sovereign risk, where are you focused?

Kyle Bass: I think the big canary in the coalmine is Japan. When you see how Japan has lost 20 years of their prosperity from 1990 to today, you see what happens when a government steps in and runs giant deficits to make up for the private market place pulling back and attempting to deleverage.

So what we’ve seen around the globe in the developed world, bad private assets are moving onto public balance sheets. Sovereign balance sheets have expanded 86% from pre-crisis levels of debt. If you extrapolate that from the beginning levels of debt, many of these countries around the world won’t be able to service their debt. So I think in the next 2-3-4 years you start to see
significant defaults.

David Faber: Do you believe Japan is in a position where it might default and/or devalue its currency as well, in the next 3-4 years?

Kyle Bass: I do not think Japan has a way out of this.

David Faber: Why Not?

Kyle Bass: You have a secular decline in population, and you have a huge funding structure at below market rates. So Japan’s weighted cost of capital is only 1.4% and their sovereign balance sheet is much worse


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Former Fannie Chief Credit Officer Says FHA Is $54 Billion Underwater

Former Fannie Chief Credit Officer Says FHA Is $54 Billion Underwater

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

In keeping with the warnings presented by Kyle Bass warned that the entire housing bubble is now being ported over to the taxpayer’s balance sheet, Edward Pinto, a former chief credit officer for Fannie Mae claims that the Federal Housing Administration will likely require a major taxpayer bailout "in the next 24 to 36 months" as it is likely to incur $56 billion more in losses than it can withstand.

For those that think the NINJA loans are a thing of the past, think again – the Fed is now actively encouraging just those same reckless standards that brought America to the brink:

The FHA program’s volumes have quadrupled since 2006 as private lenders and insurers pulled back amid the U.S. housing slump, Pinto said. The trend has left the agency backing risky loans and exposed to fraud in a “market where prices have yet to stabilize,” he said. The program insures loans with down payments as low as 3.5 percent and has no formal credit-score requirements.

The FHA Commissioner, David Stevens, is keeping to his side of the story, which is that everything is being properly accounted for, and there is no risk in the future of the Administration. Don’t expect this story to change until the next time the handout hat startrs getting tossed around legislators. In the meantime, the deterioration in loan standards keeps accelerating:

About 14.4 percent of FHA loans were delinquent as of June 30 and 2.98 percent were already being foreclosed upon, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The combined percentage for all mortgages was a record 13.16 percent, according to data from the Washington-based trade group, which said in releasing the figures the share of FHA loans past due is being suppressed by the large amount new debt.

So there you have it: housing bubble 2.0, now openly sponsored by the Administration. The more things change (insert appropriate slogan reference here)…

Mr. Pinto’s 94 page testimony and presentations and provided below, which are a must read for those who care to see what a reflating bubble looks like.

 


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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

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TransTech Digest: Godzilla, Zombies, and Cultural Coping Mechanisms

TransTech Digest: Godzilla, Zombies, and Cultural Coping Mechanisms By Patrick Cox

Godzilla, Zombies, and Cultural Coping Mechanisms

Before the Internet, there were libraries. We still have libraries, of course, but they were a lot more important a half century ago, before the Web brought the totality of human knowledge and art into our homes and phones. In my mind, at least, the now archaic libraries of the past century were a lot more fun than the sterile stripped down semi-electronic versions common today.

There are still some libraries with multistoried labyrinthine complexes of overcrowded shelves where you can get lost in knowledge, but they’re pretty rare. I hesitate to admit it but, prior to the Web, travel for me always involved searching out the most interesting and hopefully antiquated libraries whenever I traveled. I’ve spen...



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Zero Hedge

French President Says "There Is Risk Of War" As Europe Plans Additional Russia Sanctions

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

For months Europe had thought that mere verbal (and hollow) threats, populist posturing and propaganda would be enough to force Russia's Putin to back off and withdraw from the endless Ukraine escalation, into a Kremlin cocoon with his tail between his legs. What they didn't anticipate was that Putin would in no way back down (as that would be seen as defeat and weakness by his numerous internal foes), nor would have have to: with Russia providing a third of European gas and with winter approaching, Russia had all the trumps cards from day one. Furthermore, as a result of escalating trade wars it is not Russia's economy that is hurting but Europe, which is on the verge of a histo...



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Chart School

Moving Averages: Month-End Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Valid until the market close on September 30, 2014

The S&P 500 closed July with a monthly gain of 3.77%. All three S&P 500 MAs and four of the five the Ivy Portfolio ETF MAs are signaling "Invested".

The Ivy Portfolio

The table below shows the current 10-month simple moving average (SMA) signal for each of the five ETFs featured in The Ivy Portfolio. I've also included a table of 12-month SMAs for the same ETFs for this popular alternative strategy.

For a facinating analysis of the Ivy Portfolio strategy, see this article by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo:



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Option Review

Puts Active On Buffalo Wild Wings

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (Ticker: BWLD) shares are in positive territory in early-afternoon trading on Thursday, reversing earlier losses to stand up 0.50% on the session at $148.50 as of 12:15 pm ET. Options volume on the restaurant chain is running approximately three times the daily average level due to heavy put activity in the October expiry contracts. It looks like one or more traders are buying the Oct 140/145 put spread at a net premium of roughly $1.45 per contract. As of the time of this writing, the spread has traded approximately 3,000 times against very little open interest at either striking price. The put spread may be a hedge to protect a long stock position against a roughly 6% pullback in the price of the underlying through October expiration, or an outright bearish play anticipating a dip in BWLD shares in the next couple of months. The spread makes money at expiration if shares in BWLD decline 3.3% from the current price of $148.50 to breach the breakeven point...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

Six Companies Push Tax Rules Most

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Gradient Senior Analyst Nicholas Yee reports on six companies that are using a variety of techniques to shift pretax profits to lower-tax areas. Featured in this USA Today, article, the companies include CELG, ALTR, VMW, NVDA, LRCX, and SNPS.

Six Companies Push Tax Rules Most

Excerpt:

Nobody likes to pay taxes. But some companies are taking cutting their tax bil...



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Digital Currencies

Disgraced Mt Gox CEO Goes For Second Try With Web-Hosting Service (And No, Bitcoin Not Accepted)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Mt Gox may be long gone in the annals of bankruptcy, but its founder refuses to go gentle into that insolvent night. And, as CoinDesk reports, the disgraced former CEO of the one-time premier bitcoin trading platform has decided to give it a second try by launching new web hosting service called Forever.net and is registered under both Karpeles’ name and that of Tibanne, the parent company of Mt Gox.

From the company profile:

“TIBANNE Co.Ltd. ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 25th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

The latest issue of our weekly newsletter is available now. Click on Stock World Weekly and sign in with your user name and password. (Or take a free trial!)

#120692880 / gettyimages.com

 

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Market Shadows

Helen Davis Chaitman Reviews In Bed with Wall Street.

Author Helen Davis Chaitman is a nationally recognized litigator with a diverse trial practice in the areas of lender liability, bankruptcy, bank fraud, RICO, professional malpractice, trusts and estates, and white collar defense. In 1995, Ms. Chaitman was named one of the nation's top ten litigators by the National Law Journal for a jury verdict she obtained in an accountants' malpractice case. Ms. Chaitman is the author of The Law of Lender Liability (Warren, Gorham & Lamont 1990)... Since early 2009, Ms. Chaitman has been an outspoken advocate for investors in Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC (more here).

Helen Davis Chaitman Reviews In Bed with Wall Street. 

By Helen Davis Chaitman   

I confess: Larry D...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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