Posts Tagged ‘Kyle Bass’

Kyle Bass With David Faber: Bernanke’s ZIRP Is An ‘Inescapable Trap;’ Muni Bond Bloodbath Beckons But “States Will NOT Default”

Courtesy of The Daily Bail  

CNBC Video – Kyle Bass with David Faber – Feb. 16, 2011 

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Video – Part 2

Source – CNBC

Municipal bond defaults on the local level are likely and investors would be better off avoiding them, according to Kyle Bass, managing director of Hayman Capital.

Bass said he generally agrees with the call by famed banking analyst Meredith Whitney, who said as many as 100 defaults are likely that will cost more than $100 billion in damage.

Though Whitney’s call has prompted substantial backlash from her colleagues in the industry, Bass said the question is more a matter of degree.

"There are going to be a number of muni defaults, but it’s where you draw the line.  Will states be allowed to default?  Will legislation be introduced to allow states to restructure?  I don’t believe that’s the case.  I believe states will not default." 


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Kyle Bass: Be Warned…

Courtesy of Karl Denninger, The Market Ticker

He sees this the way I do, and note carefully: He was right about the subprime and housing in general too. 

Two parts:

 

Note that when he presented his views years ago to the big banks, he was told "I hope to God you’re wrong."

He wasn’t.


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No Way Out For Japan

No Way Out For Japan

Courtesy of Mish

The Business Insider has a fantastic Interview With Hayman Capital Founder Kyle Bass. Bass testified at the crisis hearings in Washington, about Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, bank capital, bank leverage and derivatives. He discussed those issues with CNBC’s David Faber along with his forecast for Japan.

Here is a partial transcript.

Kyle Bass: …. China and Japan own a lot of Fannie and Freddie Debt. I think we are more sensitive to them losing money than we are to the US taxpayer losing money and I think that has to change. … Fannie and Freddie have paid $200 million into campaigns of 354 politicians over the last 10 years. This is an organization created by the lawmakers. Why are they paying the lawmakers? Let’s get rid of this structure and just have the government make mortgage loans. …

David Faber: Let’s talk briefly about some other things you are doing at Hayman. … We saw the mini-blowup in Dubai, we have heard a lot about Greece, when you look at the totality of sovereign risk, where are you focused?

Kyle Bass: I think the big canary in the coalmine is Japan. When you see how Japan has lost 20 years of their prosperity from 1990 to today, you see what happens when a government steps in and runs giant deficits to make up for the private market place pulling back and attempting to deleverage.

So what we’ve seen around the globe in the developed world, bad private assets are moving onto public balance sheets. Sovereign balance sheets have expanded 86% from pre-crisis levels of debt. If you extrapolate that from the beginning levels of debt, many of these countries around the world won’t be able to service their debt. So I think in the next 2-3-4 years you start to see
significant defaults.

David Faber: Do you believe Japan is in a position where it might default and/or devalue its currency as well, in the next 3-4 years?

Kyle Bass: I do not think Japan has a way out of this.

David Faber: Why Not?

Kyle Bass: You have a secular decline in population, and you have a huge funding structure at below market rates. So Japan’s weighted cost of capital is only 1.4% and their sovereign balance sheet is much worse


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Former Fannie Chief Credit Officer Says FHA Is $54 Billion Underwater

Former Fannie Chief Credit Officer Says FHA Is $54 Billion Underwater

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

In keeping with the warnings presented by Kyle Bass warned that the entire housing bubble is now being ported over to the taxpayer’s balance sheet, Edward Pinto, a former chief credit officer for Fannie Mae claims that the Federal Housing Administration will likely require a major taxpayer bailout "in the next 24 to 36 months" as it is likely to incur $56 billion more in losses than it can withstand.

For those that think the NINJA loans are a thing of the past, think again – the Fed is now actively encouraging just those same reckless standards that brought America to the brink:

The FHA program’s volumes have quadrupled since 2006 as private lenders and insurers pulled back amid the U.S. housing slump, Pinto said. The trend has left the agency backing risky loans and exposed to fraud in a “market where prices have yet to stabilize,” he said. The program insures loans with down payments as low as 3.5 percent and has no formal credit-score requirements.

The FHA Commissioner, David Stevens, is keeping to his side of the story, which is that everything is being properly accounted for, and there is no risk in the future of the Administration. Don’t expect this story to change until the next time the handout hat startrs getting tossed around legislators. In the meantime, the deterioration in loan standards keeps accelerating:

About 14.4 percent of FHA loans were delinquent as of June 30 and 2.98 percent were already being foreclosed upon, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The combined percentage for all mortgages was a record 13.16 percent, according to data from the Washington-based trade group, which said in releasing the figures the share of FHA loans past due is being suppressed by the large amount new debt.

So there you have it: housing bubble 2.0, now openly sponsored by the Administration. The more things change (insert appropriate slogan reference here)…

Mr. Pinto’s 94 page testimony and presentations and provided below, which are a must read for those who care to see what a reflating bubble looks like.

 


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Zero Hedge

Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report 2 Aug

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Monetary Metals.

You cannot understand gold if you think it goes up and down, that the dollar is money and therefore the measure of all things, including gold. This is a very bold statement, so let’s look a little closer.

Mainstream articles often ask the question if gold is a good inflation hedge, which means: does gold go up as much as consumer prices. You know what comes next. They trot out a chart of the Consumer Price Index with the price of gold overlaid on it. And guess what. Gold fails to protect against inflation (i.e. its price does not go up with CPI). Therefore, you should buy stocks and real estate. QED.

A related error is to lump gold in with commodities such as copper (much less lumber or whea...



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ValueWalk

Softer First Quarter Earnings Pull India's NIFTY Down By 1%

By Mani. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Mirroring softer 1Q earnings and weaker sentiment globally, India's NIFTY dropped 1% last week, with 9 out of 19 stocks missing estimates.

Sunil Koul and team at Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) in their July 24, 2015 report “India Weekly Kickstart” point out that Indian equities witnessed foreign inflows of $170 million last week.

Goldman Sachs retains overweight on India

Analysing the fund flows, Koul and colleagues at Goldman Sachs point out that equities saw ...



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Phil's Favorites

Here's The Bad News That Nobody Is Telling You About The Record Lows In Initial Jobless Claims

Courtesy of Lee Adler at Wall Street Examiner

The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted (SA) number of initial unemployment claims for last week came in at 267,000. The Wall Street economist crowd consensus guess close to the mark this week, at 272,000.

We focus on the trend of the actual data, instead of the seasonally manipulated headline number expectations game. Facts tend to be more useful than the economic establishment’s favored fictitious numbers. Actual claims based on state-by-state filings were 230,430, which is another record low for this calendar week. It continues a nearly uninterrupted string of record lows that began in September 2013.

...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Chart School

Three RTT Indicators

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

readtheticker.com is primarily a Richard Wyckoff logic site, however through our research into Wyckoff logic the three indicators below make us very lazy in applying Richard Wyckoff logic.Why? Because if these indicators look handsome together then it most likely the Wyckoff logic is working very well.

These three indicators are NOT a trading system, but they do help with finding excellent well support accumulated stocks that show Mr Market is supporting them. Of course when indicators look ugly they will show stocks in a breakdown, thus less support by Mr Market.

RTT Steps

If the large market plays are accumulating the stock then they will control the range of BID and ASK and not let th...

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Insider Scoop

Benzinga's Weekend M&A Chatter

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Friday July 31 through Sunday Aug 2, 2015

The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Friday July 27, 2015:

Yahoo to Acquire Polyvore

The Deal:
Yahoo!, Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) announced Friday that it has reached an agreement to acquire social shopping site Polyvore. Terms were not disclosed.

Yahoo closed at $36.67 on Friday, a loss of 2%.

Hearing Unconfirmed Market Chatter of Potential Costco Bid for Whole Foods

The Rumor:
Shares of Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NYSE: WFM) were boosted Friday, on unconfirmed market chatter of a potential offer from Costco Wholesa...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Commodities – 20-Year bear market in play?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

This chart looks at the Thompson/Reuters Commodity Index on a monthly basis for the past 50 years

The index took off in the early 1970’s and rallied over 200% in a little over a decade at (1). Then it created a potential double top. What followed at (2)? An unwinding of the rally that lasted nearly 20-years, taking it to the bottom of its rising channel.

In the early 2000’s, the index took off again, gaining over 250% in a decades time at (3) and the rallied looks to have ended in 2011, as it was hitting the top of this long-term rising channel.

Since hitting the top of the channel the index has been pretty soft,...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Hedge Funds Boost Bullish Treasury Futures Bets to Two-Year High (Bloomberg)

As oil prices tanked, hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased bullish bets on Treasury securities to the most in two years, even as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates.

Crude Tumbles Near $46 Handle As US Oil Rig Count Rises For 2nd Week (Zero Hedge)

After last week's surge in total rig count, this week saw a modest 2 rig drop to 874 total rigs. However, oil rigs rose...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Lackluster earnings reports put eager bulls back into waiting mode

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Corporate earnings reports have been mixed at best, interspersed with the occasional spectacular report -- primarily from mega-caps like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), or Amazon (AMZN). Some of the bul...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Gold Spikes Back Above $1100, Bitcoin Jumps

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Gold is jumping after the overnight double flash-crash...testing back towards $1100...

Bitcoin is back up to pre-"Greece is Fixed" levels...

Charts: Bloomberg and Bitcoinwisdom

...

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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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