Oracle Miss Weighs On Tech Stocks, Spurs Bearish Options Action In Cloud Space
by Option Review - December 21st, 2011 1:40 pm
Today’s tickers: ORCL, INFA, LEN & JAG
ORCL - Oracle Corp. – It’s clear from the 14.6% drop in Oracle’s shares to $24.91 today that investors are disappointed with what the Company had to show for its efforts in the prior quarter. The second-largest software maker yesterday posted fiscal second-quarter profits of $0.54 a share on revenue of $8.81 billion, missing average analyst expectations of $0.57 a share on sales of $9.23 billion. Put buying in the weekly options suggest some traders expect the stock to extend losses ahead of the holiday. Overall options volume on Oracle Corp. has surpassed 205,000 contracts just before 1:00 PM ET as strategists looked to initiate a variety of post-earnings stances, from bearish trades looking for more pain on the horizon, to more optimistic positions that point to potential recovery in the name. Though the report may represent a surprise to the downside for many, it looks like one options player may have read the tea leaves accurately ahead of the earnings release. The strategist appears to have sold around 16,500 long-dated Jan. 2013 $35 strike calls on Oracle back on November 22 for a premium of $2.62 apiece when shares in the software giant were trading around $29.00. The purchase of a large number of call options at the Jan. 2013 $35 strike today may mean the investor is taking profits off the table. It appears approximately 16,500 calls were purchased in the first 20 minutes of the session this morning for an average premium of $1.04 each. If the original seller of the contracts did indeed buy to close the short stance in call options today, he or she has exited the bearish position with net profits of around $1.58 per contract.
INFA - Informatica Corp. – Oracle’s big quarterly earnings miss dragged down the tech sector…
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DiggBears Mine For Put Options On Agnico-Eagle As Shares Nosedive
by Option Review - October 19th, 2011 2:22 pm
Today’s tickers: AEM, ANF, LEN & ALTR
AEM - Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. – News that Agnico-Eagle Mines indefinitely suspended operations at its Goldex mine in Quebec took the luster out of shares in the gold mining company today. The stock fell nearly 20.0% to a multi-year low of $45.78 at its lowest point of the session. Some options traders are positioning for the stock to look even more tarnished by the end of the week. Meanwhile, demand for longer-dated put options on Agnico-Eagle Mines suggests the shares may remain under pressure through AEM’s third-quarter earnings release next Wednesday, for the remainder of 2011, and into the New Year.
Near-term bears jockeyed for put options in the October contract. The Oct. $45 and $47.5 strikes are two of the most active, with the majority of positions in each largely initiated by buyers. Traders exchanged roughly 1,400 in-the-money puts at the Oct. $47.5 strike against open interest of 317 contracts. These contracts were purchased roughly 930 times for an average premium of $0.89 a-pop. Investors long the puts may profit if shares in AEM trade below the average breakeven price of $46.61 at expiration later this week. The Oct. $45 strike put is the most active in the front month, with more than 2,100 of the contracts in play against open interest of 578 lots. Investors purchased most of the put options for an average premium of $0.55 each, and may make money on the bearish position in the event that shares in the gold mining company slip beneath the average breakeven point at $44.45 by expiration day.
Buyers of November contract put options at the $40, $35 and $32.5 strikes may see the value of their deep out-of-the-money options rally should the company’s third-quarter earnings or forward guidance disappoint. Finally, longer-term pessimism cropped up in the Jan. 2012 $45 strike put where some 1,700 contracts were purchased for an average premium of $3.78 apiece. The investor or investors holding the put options may profit at expiration next year if shares in AEM slide 10.0% off today’s low of $45.78 to breach the average breakeven point on the downside at $41.22. Shares in Agnico-Eagle Mines last traded below $41.22 back in December 2008. The overall reading of options implied volatility on the stock popped up 26.7% to 57.2% in the first half of the session.
ANF - Abercrombie & Fitch Co. – Sizable prints in Abercrombie…
Cisco Put Sellers Shout loudest
by Option Review - August 12th, 2010 4:30 pm
Today’s tickers: CSCO, M, SPWRA & LEN
CSCO – Cisco Systems Inc. – A disappointing revenue forecast for the current quarter by computer giant Cisco late on Wednesday spawned more fears about the strength of global demand moving forward. Cisco’s shares fell pretty close to a 52-week low and stand 24% lower than an April peak. Options traffic was extremely hectic at 327,000 contracts. Atypical of a company in the aftermath of its earnings was a rise in implied volatility, which gained more than 10%. What stands out today is the put activity, where we’re noticing a preponderance to write premium. Investors are likely trying to take advantage of as much of a 13% share price decline to $21.00 on Thursday and used options expiring in the September contract to attempt a long entry to the stock. By selling puts at the $20.00 strike for 37 cents, investors are prepared to have stock in Cisco put to them at expiration in the event the stock trades south of the strike price. If not, they retain the premium in full as compensation for providing stock bears with the insurance. Of 12,000 contracts traded at that line, seven out of eight contracts were sold to the bid. The pattern was repeated in less daring fashion at the October $17.50 strike where an investor acted as a willing Cisco buyer through expiration in exchange for a 17 cent premium on 5,000 put options.
M – Macy’s Inc. – Despite its upbeat predictions for the remainder of the year when it topped earnings predictions on Wednesday, shares in Macy’s are caught in an otherwise weaker environment for retailers. Its shares are 1.2% lower at $20.26. Nevertheless one option investor took advantage of the current bout of weakness by targeting a call spread that will expire after next quarter’s earnings have been announced in November. The bullish play involved 20,000 call options spread evenly between the $21.00 and $24.00 strikes implying a maximum gain of $3.00 less the cost of today’s trade, which nets to 91 cents. The maximum gain of $2.09 would only occur in the event that shares in Macy’s rose 18.5% from present although on a simple breakeven basis the investor needs Macy’s shares to gain 5.5%.
SPWRA – SunPower Corp. – A chunk of 20,000 put options was traded on SunPower earlier at the far-dated January 2012 expiration. Time and sales…
Frenzied Bearish Options Activity Ensues as Visa, MasterCard Shares Take a Big Hit
by Option Review - May 18th, 2010 4:20 pm
Today’s tickers: V, MA, JPM, COF, EEM, STX, MDC, DPS, MYL & LEN
V – Visa, Inc. – Shares of the world’s largest payments network are down sharply by 7.75% to stand at $68.92 as of 2:55 pm (ET) after Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D – RI) suggested Monday that the U.S. should cap interest rates on credit cards. Other credit card companies such as MasterCard and Capital One Financial Corp. are also suffering significant share price erosion this afternoon. Bearish options investors flooded the May contract with pessimistic plays, while more optimistic traders appear to be positioning for a rebound in Visa’s share price by June expiration. Investors bracing for continued bearish movement in the price of the underlying stock picked up 3,600 now in-the-money puts at the May $70 strike for an average premium of $1.15 apiece. Buying interest spread to the lower May $65 strike where 1,400 puts were purchased at an average premium of $0.36 each. Finally, uber-bearish traders scooped up 1,290 puts at the May $60 strike – the lowest strike price currently available in the front month – for an average premium of $0.16 apiece. Investors long the May $60 strike puts make money if Visa’s shares plummet 13.15% from the current value of $68.92 to breach the average breakeven point to the downside at $59.84 by expiration on Friday. Bearish traders also ravaged May contract calls, selling roughly 7,000 lots at the May $75 strike to take in an average premium of $0.71 per contract. Investors also shed 2,000 calls at the May $70 strike to receive an average premium of $2.47 apiece. Call sellers retain the full premium received today as long shares of the underlying stock do not exceed $70.00 ahead of expiration. Finally, optimistic options investors are positioning for a rebound in the credit card company’s shares by purchasing 1,800 calls at the June $70 strike for an average premium of $4.71 each. Shares must rally 8.4% over the current price of the stock before June $70 strike call buyers start to make money above the average breakeven price of $74.71. Bullish call buying activity spread to the higher June $72.5 strike where 2,500 calls were picked up for an average premium of $3.64 per contract. Investor uncertainty, as measured by the overall reading of options implied volatility, is net up on Visa today with volatility rising 16.5% to 52.68% as…
Ford Motor Co. Calls Fly Off the Shelves
by Option Review - April 14th, 2010 5:09 pm
Today’s tickers: F, PGR, IBM, YHOO, SMH, LINTA, VALE, POT, LEN & RRGB
F – Ford Motor Co. – Call options on automobile maker, Ford Motor Co., are flying off the assembly line this afternoon with shares of the underlying stock soaring 4.5% higher to $13.36. Investors exchanged more than 381,000 option contracts on Ford by 3:25 pm (ET), and paid extra attention to call contracts, trading more than 3.7 calls to each single put option in action. The most heavily trafficked area of the Ford options arena today are call contracts at the September $14 strike where bullish players bought up approximately 86,000 lots for an average premium of $1.12 apiece. More than 99,100 calls changed hands at this strike, which puts the previously existing open interest of 22,831 contracts to shame. Call-buyers holding the September $14 strike call options are positioned to make money if the auto maker’s shares surge 13.2% over the current price to surpass the average breakeven price of $15.12 by September expiration. Ford’s overall reading of options implied volatility is up 14.5% to 39.48% with 30 minutes remaining in the trading session.
PGR – The Progressive Corp. – Bullish options investors dabbled in call options on the insurance holding company in late afternoon trading with shares of the underlying stock rallying up 5.55% to a new 52-week high of $20.55. One investor was prepared for the rally and banked profits on a previously established long call position today. It looks like the options optimist originally purchased 2,000 calls at the May $20 strike for an average premium of $0.35 apiece back on March 25, 2010, when shares of Progressive Corp. were trading at around $18.86 each. The subsequent surge in the value of Progressive’s shares prompted the trader to sell the calls today for a premium of $0.95 apiece, thus banking net profits of $0.60 per contract. Finally, the investor initiated a fresh bullish stance on the stock by purchasing 2,000 calls at the higher August $22.5 strike for a premium of $0.40 each. The trader makes money on the new call acquisition if the insurer’s shares increase another 11.45% to exceed the effective breakeven share price of $22.90 by expiration day in August.
IBM – International Business Machines Corp. – The computer services giant received a vote of confidence by one big bullish options player this afternoon amid a 1.7% increase in the…
Option Bulls Buy Calls to Celebrate New Coverage of NuVasive Spinal Treatment
by Option Review - February 26th, 2010 5:49 pm
Today’s tickers: NUVA, TRE, FXE, BBY, DECK, LEN, AA, ESRX, JDSU & UNH
NUVA – NuVasive Inc. – The spinal surgery equipment maker’s shares are up sharply today by more than 32.50% to $39.38. NuVasive’s shares surged on news health insurance company, Aetna, is changing its policy to allow reimbursement for surgical spine treatment know as lateral interbody fusion. Bullish posturing in call options was observed today following the news about extended coverage for the treatment, which was previously excluded for being an experimental procedure. Plain-vanilla call buyers picked up nearly 2,000 contracts at the March $40 strike for an average premium of $1.34 apiece. Investors long the calls are prepared to pocket profits if NUVA’s shares rally above the effective breakeven point on the calls at $41.34 by expiration day next month.
TRE – Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp. – British Columbia, Canada-based gold mining company, Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp., attracted heavier than usual two-way trading traffic in put options today. The firm, which explores and acquires gold properties in Tanzania, realized a 2.30% rally in its shares during the session to $4.05. More than 25,000 in-the-money put options changed hands at the October $5 strike with the majority of the volume trading to the bid. Approximately 14,200 puts were sold for an average premium of $1.31 per contract, while 5,200 put contracts were purchased at that strike for roughly the same amount of premium. In-the-money put sellers are perhaps anticipating continued bullish movement in the price of the underlying by October expiration. Investors short the puts keep the full $1.31 premium per contract if TRE’s shares rally above $5.00 by expiration day. Put sellers stand ready to have shares of the underlying stock put to them at an effective price of $3.69 apiece in the event that the put contracts remain in-the-money through expiration day.
FXE – CurrencyShares Euro Trust – Shares of the FXE exchange-traded fund, which reflects the price of the Euro, are up 0.45% to $135.88 in afternoon trading. A decent-sized put butterfly spread on the fund indicates one investor does not expect the current rally to continue. On the contrary, the parameters of the spread benefit the trader most if shares decrease roughly 2.25% in value by April expiration. To enact the bearish butterfly play, the investor purchased 5,000 puts at the April $134 strike for a premium of $1.50 apiece [wing 1], and picked…
Testy Tuesday Morning
by Phil - January 5th, 2010 8:27 am
Wow – what a lot of work to get back to last Tuesday’s high!
As usual, the vast majority of gains came in pre-market trading and the rest came in light-volume, early morning trading while the rest of the day was dominated by every buyer finding a willing seller for 75% of the day’s volume. We saw what happened on Thursday when someone big wants to sell and there are no buyers so we’ll see how long the bull’s luck (manufactured or otherwise) will hold out as we begin to get economic data along with some early earnings reports.
The Ag sector popped 2% yesterday ahead of tonight’s earings from MOS with MON checking in tomorrow morning so we’ll see how wise those last-minute bets were in short order. SONC also has earnings tonight and we like those guys long-term. SONC makes a decent buy/write candidate as you can buy the stock for $10.29 and sell June $10 puts and calls for $2.25 for a net entry of $8.04 with a very nice 24% profit if called away at $10 and an average entry of $9.02 (a 12% discount) if more stock is put to you below $10 in June.
FDO and WOR also report tomorrow morning. FDO will be interesting but a weak dollar probably hurt them last quarter. Tomorrow night we hear from BBBY, BLUD, OHB and Sonic competitor RT, who seem a bit pricey at $7.50. Thursday we get our first real builder, LEN along with STZ and TXI. After the bell on Thursday we hear from APOL, CRI and SCHN with GBX and PSMT on Friday. AA officially kicks of earnings season next Monday with GAP, INFY, KBH, BGG, SCHW, SHFL, INTC and JPM highlighting the reporters.
We have plenty of data this week including Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales at 10 am along with December Auto Sales throughout the day (did you get a new car for Christmas?). Tomorrow is jobs day, with the ADP Report and Challenger Job Cuts ahead of the bell followed by ISM Services (yesterday’s ISM was a nice beat) and, of course, Crude Inventories at 10:30 which are unlikely to sustain $82 oil (USO Jan $40 puts for .80 are a good way to play this). We talked about the other stuff yesterday so I won’t repeat it – suffice to say we have plenty of data this week to see if we justify these lofty levels.
Everyone is talking…
Which Way Wednesday – Fed Edition
by Phil - June 24th, 2009 7:53 am
No change from yesterday.
We’re going to be watching the same bounce levels as we were yesterday and that was 8,370 on the Dow, which was the level I predicted we’d test in the morning post and was the day’s high on the morning "rally" at 10:06, after which the Dow quickly dropped 80 points. Now, with the Dow finishing the day 16 points lower, we’re going to need an even bigger boost just to hit our test zone (50 points). Pre-markets are up about half of that but that’s a pretty poor response to the OECD raising China’s GDP forecast to 7.7% from 6.3% and also raised it’s global outlook for members to -4.1% from -4.3% and they expect a 0.7% increase in GDP in 2010.
Aside from the fact that -4.1% still sucks, keep in mind that the OECD is like the global Chamber of Commerce whose charter is: "To achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a rising standard of living in Member countries, while maintaining financial stability, and thus to contribute to the development of the world economy and to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as well as nonmember countries in the process of economic development." In other words, this is like your local business council telling you it’s a great time to come downtown and enjoy the fine holiday shopping – not exactly a leading economic indicator. Is the OECD fiddling while the World burns or are they really onto something? We’ll get a better picture from the IMF, who give their mid-year forecast on July 7th as they actually wait for the half to end, rather than rushing out a statement to forestall a decaying trendline.
Even while I’m writing this (7:15) the futures are being jammed up like crazy and it looks like "THEY" don’t want to risk a real test and are going to try to get a gap open above our resistance points. Aside from Dow 8,370, we’ll be looking for S&P 900, Nasdaq 1,780, NYSE 5,800 and Russell 500. Failing those keeps us in a very serious downtrend and we still have to get past Durable Goods at 8:30, which are looking to be a bad number, probably down more than 1% from up 1.9% in April. Redbook Retal Sales for June are off 4.4% in the first 3 weeks, which doesn’t include Wal-Mart but…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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