Strangle Strategist Tightens Grip on JPMorgan
by Andrew Wilkinson - March 4th, 2010 4:15 pm
Today’s tickers: JPM, TIVO, RHT, UTX, CSCO, CI, BA, XRX, DIS, AKS & M
JPM - JPMorgan Chase & Co. – A long strangle enacted on JPMorgan today indicates one investor is expecting the firm to experience a significant shift in the price of its shares by June expiration. The investment banking and financial services giant realized a 1% rally in share price during the current session to $41.94. The investor initiated the strangle strategy by purchasing 9,000 calls at the June $46 strike for a premium of $1.06 apiece and by picking up 9,000 puts at the June $36 strike for $0.96 each. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $2.02 per contract. Strangle-players benefit from drastic moves in share price, but lose out if the value of the stock stagnates. In this specific trade, the investor profits if JPM’s shares rally above the upper breakeven price of $48.02 by expiration, or if shares trade below the lower breakeven point at $33.98, by June expiration. The trader is looking for increased volatility in the price of the underlying shares, but also may benefit from higher options implied volatility. Moves higher in options implied volatility corresponds with greater option premium on both calls and puts. Thus, the investor could potentially sell the strangle at a profit ahead of expiration day if combined premium on the trade exceeds the $2.02 per contract paid today. We note that JPM’s shares have not exceeded $47.47 in the past year, but did trade as low as $14.96 back on March 6, 2009.
TIVO - TiVo, Inc. – Shares of the innovator of digital-video recording services surged as much as 61.30% to an intraday high of $16.42, the highest price recorded for TiVo’s shares in at least five years. TiVo was named the victor today after a U.S. appeals court ruled that Dish Network Corp. and EchoStar Corp. are “still infringing its patent and should stop providing digital-video recording services.” Options traders had a field day with the news and exchanged upwards of 275,300 contracts on the stock by 3:10 pm (ET). Today’s options trading volume on TiVo represents just under 80% of the total existing open interest on the stock of 348,203 contracts. Investors populated the stock with a plethora of trading strategies. Some traders banked profits on the rally, while others employed the use of strangles. Plain-vanilla call buying and put selling by bullish individuals was…
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Thrill-Ride Thursday - Retail Sales and Maybe Some Jobs?
by Phil - January 7th, 2010 7:50 am
Beware the data!
The first thing you will hear this morning is that COST had a 9% rise in sales, with International sales up a whopping 25%. What you are less likely to hear is that COST sells a lot of gasoline, which has doubled in price since last December and, excluding inflation in gas prices, same-store sales are up just 2%, a tremendous miss of the 7.9% expected. Out of the 25% increase in International sales, 15% is attributable to currency exchange so up 10% is the real number.
This is nothing against Costco, I like that company, but it’s a caution sign to look carefully at the retail numbers we’re going to be seeing today as there are several outside factors that are skewing the results drastically - to the point where the numbers, whether good or bad, are almost meaningless. It’s also good to keep in mind that we are comping sales to the WORST CHRISTMAS EVER so anything less than double digit gains over last year is still pretty sad.
Mish did a good job yesterday of pointing out the statistical nonsense known as the Non-Farm Payroll Report, where "Birth/Death" model revisions that were as much as 356,000 a month last year (January) make the data beyond useless for any kind of serious analysis. Nonetheless, analyze it they will and if we manage to avoid posting our 24th CONSECUTIVE month of losses, surely they will be pouring champagne on CNBC and acting like Capitalism has once again triumphed over evil (evil being people without money who still want to live with dignity).
Speaking of dignity - if you know 100 people in Nevada then, statistically, 3 of them went bankrupt this year, up 61% from last year as our economy "recovers". In Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama, just 2 of your 100 friends filed while California, surprisingly "only" had one in 66 households file for bankruptcy so you can go almost a whole day and not run into someone who lost everything in California - too bad the same can’t be said for the State overall! California needs $21Bn over the next 18 months to keep the lights on. This doesn’t seem so bad, GMAC is losing $13Bn this quarter and we’re bailing them out but if we bail out CA then NY, NJ and 47 other states will come knocking to the tune of $230Bn in state deficits and that we…
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PSW Rewind of 2009 - The First Quarter
by Phil - January 1st, 2010 2:42 pm
Thursday’s close was very exciting, wasn’t it?
Well it sure was for us as my 10:01 Alert to Members was a play on the DIA Jan $103 puts at .56. Thanks to the late afternoon dip, they finished the day at .90 (up 60%) after peaking out at .95, a very nice win to close off the year. That was the only Alert trade all week as this market has been too tough to call and we don’t make trades just for the hell of it. I had been sniping at DIA puts all week expecting a pay-off but Thursday it finally came together.
Of course, I also strongly advocated hedging on Thursday morning and listed 4 trade ideas in the morning post to hedge ourselves against the possibility of just such a drop so don’t say you haven’t been warned. Whether there will be follow-through on Monday or a full reversal remains to be seen and, even if I knew, I wouldn’t tell you here because this is a review - predictions are another article entirely.
We treaded very cautiously into last year because our PSW Holiday Retail Survey was not looking very pretty so it was no surprise to us, on Dec 26th, when we got some horrific retail reports. These are, of course, the same reports that we "beat" this year - but not by much. Dec 29th was Monday and Israeli jets attacked Hamas targets in the Gaza sending oil flying up to $48 a barrel. That gave us a nice commodity rally into the close of the year but January 2nd was a Friday and we decided (fortunately) to take the money and run on our long plays, holding open our main cover of SKF Jan $120s at $4.35, which hit $80 later in the month (up 1,732%) and USO Feb $32 puts at $3.40, which hit $10.50 in the Feb dip (up 208%) so, on the whole, not too differently positioned than we are now, coming into the new year. Visually 2009 looked a little like this:
January - Waiting for Obama, or Something, to Change
We began January much the same way we ended December with my Wed Jan 7th comment being: "We call it "Testy Tuesday" for a reason and our 5% rule was tested twice during the day but the market failed to break out despite what seemed to be a contrarian rally to Fed minutes that I summarized to members at 2:02 as "BAD!!!!" I set a…
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PSW Holiday Shopping Survey
by Phil - December 22nd, 2009 3:40 pm
I finally went to the mall yesterday.
I guess that makes me part of 2 trends. I am one of those last-minute shoppers that finally went out and got done yesterday while Tina bought EVERYTHING on-line this year and I don’t even think she’s waiting for any more shipments at this point. If you get used to cyber-shopping, it’s easy to see why the trend is growing but on-line retail is still nothing more than a speck (5%) on overall retail sales and that’s AFTER being up more than 20% this year.
So I went to the trenches on Saturday, where the real people shop (well, the real, upper-middle class people, anyway) at the Garden State Plaza in Paramus, New Jersey - one of America’s larger and busier malls made even more so on a Saturday because Bergen County has blue laws and retail is closed on Sundays so yesterday was do or die in Paramus with just 3 more shopping days until Christmas.
I took the kids at about 10 am and the first sign of trouble was that we got a pretty good parking spot. On a normal Saturday at the Garden State Plaza, you can’t get a good spot anyway and on a normal Christmas you can expect a half-mile hike from your car to the mall. When I got inside, it was even stranger, there were so few children in the mall that the carousel was empty so my kids jumped right on that as we spend our first dollar of the day. Riding around the carousel I saw something that didn’t cost anything - there was a MSFT XBox demo station set up with very cool driving set-ups with seats and wheels and big screens and full band set-ups for playing Guitar Hero on a little stage and about 6 other game demo areas - right in the middle of that part of the mall AND IT WAS EMPTY.
If nothing else had worried me about Christmas before, that would have been it because who doesn’t want to play free video games on big-screen high-def TVs with all the coolest attachments (they had sports-car seats and a wheel/pedals combo that they said cost $100 (not the seat) and was sold out at Game Stop)? Something was very wrong. Leggo land was also empty so maybe people just didn’t want to bring kids to the mall this weekend but that begs the question why? …
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CAT-Bears Brace for Rocky Start to 2010
by Andrew Wilkinson - December 15th, 2009 4:34 pm
Today’s tickers: CAT, MS, UUP, STI, WFC, MCO, M, ROK, BBY, JAVA & HMY
CAT - Caterpillar, Inc. – Bearish option traders are bracing for potential CAT-share price erosion through expiration in February 2010. Shares edged nearly 0.75% lower in late afternoon trading to stand at $57.94. One pessimist purchased a put spread to prepare for potential declines. The transaction involved the purchase of roughly 7,000 puts at the February 55 strike for a premium of 2.35 apiece, marked against the sale of 7,000 puts at the lower February 35 strike for 49 cents premium each. The net cost of the trade amounts to 1.86 per contract. The investor responsible for the spread probably holds a long position in the underlying. Under this assumption, the trader has established downside protection, which kicks in if Caterpillar’s shares fall beneath the breakeven price of $53.14 by expiration day in February.
MS - Morgan Stanley – Analysts at Barclays Capital slashed fourth-quarter earnings estimates for Morgan Stanley to 40 cents from 90 cents today. Perhaps the bearish options activity observed on MS during the trading session was partly inspired by the significant profit-forecast revision at Barclays. Either way, investors populating Morgan Stanley’s January 2010 contract appear pretty pessimistic on the second-largest U.S. securities firm. Traders threw in the towel on MS by shedding nearly 20,000 calls at the January 31 strike for an average premium of 75 cents apiece. Some investors may be closing out previously established long call positions. Analysis of the existing open interest at that strike suggests traders are likely cutting their losses by selling the calls today. Investors abandoning bullish bets do not paint a rosy picture of where MS’s share price may settle during the first weeks of 2010.
UUP - PowerShares DB US Dollar index Bull Fund – The U.S. dollar is brimming with confidence on the first of a two-day FOMC meet in Washington and while investors are not expecting any signs of a policy change, there is certainly a firmer tone underlying the dollar in the past 72 hours or so. Option traders placed extremely bullish bets using call options on the bullish dollar index fund, whose shares currently stand 0.9% higher on the day at $22.82. Investors bought a huge chunk of 100,000 long-dated options reserving buying rights over the dollar at a fixed $24.00 before the contract expires in January 2011. That leaves traders hoping for a 5% rally…
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Put Volume Explodes on iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index ETF
by Andrew Wilkinson - December 2nd, 2009 4:38 pm
Today’s tickers: EWH, HPQ, M, GLD, LCC, KRE, BBY, WAG & DYAX
EWH - iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund – The EWH popped onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner today after one investor traded 70,000 put options on the fund. Shares of the ETF are up 0.25% this afternoon to stand at $16.22. It appears the trader shed 35,000 puts at the January 14 strike for 10 cents apiece in order to partially offset the cost of purchasing 35,000 puts at the June 14 strike for 65 cents each. The net cost of the protective play amounts to 55 cents per contract. The nearer-term short put position in the January contract implies the investor does not expect shares to dip below $14.00 by expiration in less than two months. The investors stands ready to have a whopping 3,500,000 shares of the underlying put to him at $14.00 apiece in the event that the put options do land in-the-money. The long put position in the June 2010 contract suggests the trader is already long the stock. He is most likely extending downside protection on the underlying position for the next seven months before expiration. Shares of the EWH would need to fall 17% from the current price in order for downside protection to kick in beneath the breakeven point at $13.45. We note that shares of the fund have traded above $14.00 since July 15, 2009.
HPQ - Hewlett-Packard Co. – Medium-term bullish trading graced the global technology company’s February 2010 contract despite a 1% decline in HPQ shares this afternoon to $49.06. A risk reversal by one option player suggests shares could increase significantly by expiration in February. The trader sold 12,000 puts at the February 40 strike for an average premium of 27 cents apiece, and bought the same number of calls at the higher February 60 strike for 8 pennies each. The transaction yields a net credit of 19 cents per contract. The investor retains the full credit as long as HPQ’s shares remain above $40.00 through expiration day. Additional profits accumulate if the stock surges 22% higher than the current price to surpass the $60-level. The long call position probably serves more as a stop loss, or insurance policy, on the trade in the unlikely event that shares do jump more than 22% in the next three months. The reversal was more likely motivated by the 19…
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Bullish Ddollar Index ETF Intrigues Once Again
by Andrew Wilkinson - November 12th, 2009 4:14 pm
Today’s tickers: UUP, VIX, FSLR, HMY, M, GMCR, CTRP & DOW
UUP - PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund – A pair of bullish risk reversals on the PowerShares US Dollar Bullish Fund suggests today’s sharp rally for the dollar will likely continue over the next several months. We observed massive bullish plays on the UUP over the past couple of weeks, some tied to machinations of whether or not the fund had enough shares in circulation. But today’s activity predicts far more extreme movements in the price of the dollar index. The UUP is current up 1.4% to $22.80, while the dollar index, which it supposedly tracks, is up just 0.7%. Investors sold 4,700 deep in-the-money put options at the December 29 strike for an average premium of 6.30 apiece, spread against the purchase of 4,700 calls at the same strike for one nickel each. The high-delta put options hold very little extrinsic value because expiration is just over one month away. Thus, investors are expecting the intrinsic value of the puts to decline. The only way this will occur is if the dollar rallies forcing the UUP to increase. If traders’ bullish predictions are correct, the value of the long calls will appreciate, while premium on the short puts erodes. Such a scenario allows investors to profit by buying back the puts for less than the 6.25 net premium received on the reversal. A similar uber-bullish strategy was employed at the January 2010 28 strike price where investors sold 4,250 deep-in-the-money puts short for about 5.30 each, and purchased the same number of calls for 5 cents apiece.
VIX - CBOE Vix index – With the equity market down and the dollar on the rise, investors across different asset classes today appear to be blaming one another for prevailing direction. No one seems to know why anything is moving in the fashion it is. The suggestion of course is that risk appetite is on the demise and fear is picking up. Compounding such indecision in the volatility class are trades suggesting ongoing disparate views on the fortunes for equities going forward. The so-called fear gauge is 5% higher at 24.90 today while trading has been two way. In the November options one investor loaded up on 25,000 call options at a 25 cent premium suggesting that the index will be above 25 when options expire next Tuesday. The December contract equally hinted…
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Wells Fargo Put Spreaders Back in Town
by Andrew Wilkinson - November 11th, 2009 4:27 pm
Today’s tickers: WFC, AMR, PG, DRYS, DTV, M, EMC, WYNN, TOL & SFD
WFC - Wells Fargo & Co. – A popular option strategy frequently employed on Wells Fargo, the ratio put spread, appeared once again in the January 2010 contract. The bearish play was initiated despite the more than 2% rally in shares during the trading session to $28.75. The ratio spread involved the purchase of 7,500 puts at the January 27.5 strike for an average premium of 1.60 apiece, marked against the sale of 15,000 puts at the lower January 24 strike for 67 cents each. The net cost of the protective play amounts to 26 cents per contract. Thus, downside protection will kick in if shares decline beneath the breakeven price of $27.24 by expiration in January.
AMR - AMR Corp. – American Airlines operator, AMR Corp., attracted a large bullish play by one investor targeting the January 2010 contract. Shares of AMR are up more than 4% to $5.83 with just under one hour remaining in the trading day. An AMR-optimist initiated a call spread by purchasing 15,000 calls at the January 7.5 strike for an average premium of 35 cents each, marked against the sale of 15,000 calls at the higher January 9.0 strike for 10 cents premium apiece. The net cost of the bullish transaction amounts to 25 cents per contract. Profits are available to the call-spreader if shares of AMR rally at least 33% to breach the breakeven point at $7.75 by expiration. Maximum potential profits of 1.25 per contract for a total of $1.875 million are attained by the trader if shares surge 54% to $9.00.
PG - The Proctor & Gamble Co. – Options activity in the January 2011 contract on the consumer products company today indicates one investor expects little fluctuation in shares over the next 14 months. Shares of PG are slightly up by less than 0.25% to stand at $61.90. The trader initiated a sold strangle by selling 2,000 puts at the January 60 strike for 5.73 each, and by selling 2,000 calls at the higher January 65 strike for a premium of 3.82 apiece. The gross premium pocketed on the sale amounts to 9.55 per contract. The strangle-seller retains the full premium if shares of PG remain ‘strangled’ within the parameters of the strike prices described. The investor will benefit from lower option implied volatility on the stock, as well as from the…
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General Electric Sees Bears Jump to Options Defense
by Andrew Wilkinson - September 24th, 2009 4:32 pm
Today’s tickers: GE, EEM, SLV, F, VALE, FCX, M, ABX & C
GE - The more than 3% decline in shares of GE today inspired bearish options activity to unfold in the November contract. One investor chose to employ a put spread by purchasing 5,500 puts at the November 16 strike for 67 cents apiece, spread against the sale of the same number of contracts at the lower November 13 strike for 14 cents each. The net cost of the pessimistic play amounts to 53 cents per contract. If the investor is long shares of the underlying stock, downside protection on the put play will kick in if shares decline beneath the breakeven price of $15.47 by expiration day. The strike prices selected by the trader indicate that while he is bracing for further declines in the stock, he does not expect GE to decline much beneath $13.00 in the next few months. – General Electric –
EEM - The EEM jumped higher on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner following bullish options action in the January contract. Shares of the ETF are currently down 2% to $37.85. The investor responsible for the transaction looked to the January 38 strike to purchase 6,500 calls for an average premium of 2.78 apiece. The calls were spread against the sale of 6,500 in-the-money puts at the same strike for which the trader received 2.91 each. The risk reversal results in a net credit of 13 cents to the investor. The credit is retained by the trader if shares settle at $38.00 by expiration day. Additional profits will accumulate if shares of the ETF rally through $38.00. – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index –
SLV - Large-volume chunks of calls traded on the silver exchange-traded fund today by one investor who appears to be taking a bullish stance in the face of a more than 3.5% decline in shares to $15.96. The trader looked to the near-term October 16 strike to purchase 30,000 calls for an average premium of 65 cents apiece. The purchase was spread against the sale of the same number of calls at the January 2011 18 strike for a premium of 2.35 each. The transaction results in a net credit of 1.70 to the investor. Perhaps this individual expects the near-term calls to land in-the-money by expiration. If this occurs, he may exercise the options and take delivery of the underlying stock…
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Cemex Share Issue Has Bears Target Option Risk-Reversals
by Andrew Wilkinson - September 22nd, 2009 4:31 pm
Today’s tickers: CX, RIMM, FCX, LAVA, XLF, M, MBI, JDSU & SHPGY
CX - The Mexican cement company’s shares have edged slightly lower by less than 0.5% to $13.04 this afternoon due to the firm’s plan to issue stock to pay down debt. Option traders have braced for further declines by employing bearish risk reversals in the October contract. It appears investors shed 6,500 calls at the October 14 strike for 43 cents apiece in order to partially finance the purchase of 6,500 puts at the lower October 12 strike for 45 cents each. The net cost of picking up protective put options is reduced to just 2 pennies per contract. If traders are long the underlying stock, downside protection will kick in if shares slip beneath the breakeven point at $12.98 by expiration next month. – Cemex SAB de CV –
RIMM - Blackberry producer, Research in Motion, attracted bullish investors who initiated call spreads on the stock today. Shares are slightly higher by less than 0.25% to stand at the current price of $84.25. One investor targeted the November contract where it appears put options were sold to offset the cost of purchasing a call spread. The spread involved the purchase of 6,000 calls at the November 105 strike for 1.28 each against the sale of 6,000 calls at the higher November 120 strike for 33 cents per contract. Finally, the November 70 strike had 6,000 puts shed for an average premium of 1.87 apiece. The investor receives a net 91 cent credit on the three-legged strategy. He will retain the full premium as long as shares of RIMM remain higher than $70.00 by expiration day. Additional profits are available to the trader if the stock surges 25% from the current price to breach the $105.00 level. Maximum potential profits of 15.00 per contract would be attained if Research in Motion skyrocketed 42% to $120.00. Another trader put on a ratio call spread in the January contract. The bullish trade was established through the purchase of 1,500 calls at the January 90 strike for 6.81 spread against the sale of 3,000 calls at the higher January 115 strike for a premium of 1.42 apiece. The net cost of the transaction amounts to 3.97 per contract. The investor will begin to garner profits if shares rise through the breakeven point at $93.97 by January’s expiration. – Research in Motion Limited –
FCX -…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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