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Posts Tagged ‘Martin Armstrong’

Armstrong Economics: Entering Phase II of The Debt Crisis

Introduction by Ilene

martin armstrongYou may be wondering why Chopshop is referencing Martin Armstrong’s writings, given Marty’s extended stay in maximum security prison.  Chopshop contends that Martin’s cyclic modeling is genius and ought to supersede whatever opinion one has of Armstrong’s case.

Armstrong is a gold-to-$5,000 guy.  Chopshop agrees that one day gold will likely reach those dollar-denominated "values", but believes that gold will likely digest its 400% gain of the past decade over the next few years before ‘going for the gusto.’

Chopshop and Fibozachi have remained steadfast in calling for first targets of 81 and 84 on the US dollar since they nailed its bottom on December 3rd.  (See also this and this.) They believe we are at a juncture within the credit crisis where "gold is much more likely to take a $350 John Edwards-style haircut before reaching $1450 and beyond."

Back to Armstrong, whose proclivity for gold stems "not from an ill-conceived loathing of the dollar but from an impeccably nuanced study of history’s mosaic.  Chopshop thinks Armstrong’s work can be appreciated by all, "not only because of Marty’s historical breadth but also because his forecasts are predicated upon explicit methodology."

So I asked Chopshop why Martin was in prison, and, for the first time he paused, answering a few seconds later that the reason is because Martin didn’t "obey the rules of Fight Club" ~ you don’t talk about Fight Club and you don’t talk about the alleged collusion of broker/dealers, investment banks, hedge funds and nation-states publicly when "they" are who you consult / manage money for. Armstrong spoke to the manipulation of silver futures by JPM, named Warren Buffett as a mystery $2 billion futures participant of "the Club" and, ultimately, spoke to alleged cabals operating from within, yet behind, financial markets.  Marty spoke about the game being rigged by the Club, being anything but a random walk. Is such the reason for his incarceration with extreme prejudice; not his Pi cycles, public-private pendulum or other brilliant work within cyclic periodicity? So basically, he’s in the hole on trumped up charges.

The long and short of it, according to Chop’s opinion, is that Martin is a political prisoner and cyclic genius who speaks to the intermediate and long-term horizon with probabilistic prescience.  He’s not selling anything and not offering actionable advice. He’s focused solely on finding robust patterns within his models and across history.  Marty has a nearly…
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Armstrong Economics: Entering Phase II of The Debt Crisis

Introduction by Ilene

martin armstrongYou may be wondering why Chopshop is referencing Martin Armstrong’s writings, given Marty’s extended stay in maximum security prison.  Chopshop contends that Martin’s cyclic modeling is genius and ought to supersede whatever opinion one has of Armstrong’s case.

Armstrong is a gold-to-$5,000 guy.  Chopshop agrees that one day gold will likely reach those dollar-denominated "values", but believes that gold will likely digest its 400% gain of the past decade over the next few years before ‘going for the gusto.’

Chopshop and Fibozachi have remained steadfast in calling for first targets of 81 and 84 on the US dollar since they nailed its bottom on December 3rd.  (See also this and this.) They believe we are at a juncture within the credit crisis where "gold is much more likely to take a $350 John Edwards-style haircut before reaching $1450 and beyond."

Back to Armstrong, whose proclivity for gold stems "not from an ill-conceived loathing of the dollar but from an impeccably nuanced study of history’s mosaic.  Chopshop thinks Armstrong’s work can be appreciated by all, "not only because of Marty’s historical breadth but also because his forecasts are predicated upon explicit methodology."

So I asked Chopshop why Martin was in prison, and, for the first time he paused, answering a few seconds later that the reason is because Martin didn’t "obey the rules of Fight Club" ~ you don’t talk about Fight Club and you don’t talk about the alleged collusion of broker/dealers, investment banks, hedge funds and nation-states publicly when "they" are who you consult / manage money for. Armstrong spoke to the manipulation of silver futures by JPM, named Warren Buffett as a mystery $2 billion futures participant of "the Club" and, ultimately, spoke to alleged cabals operating from within, yet behind, financial markets.  Marty spoke about the game being rigged by the Club, being anything but a random walk. Is such the reason for his incarceration with extreme prejudice; not his Pi cycles, public-private pendulum or other brilliant work within cyclic periodicity? So basically, he’s in the hole on trumped up charges.

The long and short of it, according to Chop’s opinion, is that Martin is a political prisoner and cyclic genius who speaks to the intermediate and long-term horizon with probabilistic prescience.  He’s not selling anything and not offering actionable advice. He’s focused solely on…
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Low Interest Rates and Easy Credit Are Catastrophes for Any Economy

Low Interest Rates and Easy Credit Are Catastrophes for Any Economy

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds

The Federal Reserve insists that super-low interest rates and loose lending are the keys to renewed growth. Their analysis is fatally flawed; those are catastrophically destructive policies in any economy.

One of the key analytic tools in the Survival+ critique is very simple to grasp: sort out the incentives and disincentives, and you are halfway to a systemic understanding.

For example, U.S. sickcare (a.k.a. "healthcare") is fundamentally doomed to insolvency and collapse because its incentives for all participants are entirely perverse. (Please see Perverse Incentives and a Government Doomed to Collapse January 14, 2010).

With this is mind, let’s examine the incentives built into the Federal Reserve policy of super-low interest rates and loose lending ("easy credit"). The fundamental idea here is straightfoward: consumers have limitless desires, and all we need to do to reinvigorate consumer spending is make borrowing more money both cheap and convenient/easy.

But what about the hidden incentives and disincentives? This policy is incredibly perverse in several profound ways:

1. it provides a powerful disincentive to saving (accumulating capital)

2. it offers a powerful incentive to speculate with "free money" provided by lenders

3. it provides a powerful incentive to leverage a small amount of capital/cash into gigantic bets via "easy money" (3% down payment mortgages, etc.)

4. it rewards risk and destroys moral hazard because the losses incurred by the borrower deploying massive leverage are extremely modest (3% down isn’t much to lose, so why not gamble that housing with rise 30% from here?)

5. it incentivizes a feedback loop of ever-expanding bets, leverage and borrowing (i.e. housing speculators buying a second, third and fourth home because they made a killing on their first house) which "rewards" the speculative mania with ever higher assets prices as this specious "demand" grows with expanding leverage and debt.

6. In a financial system which actively suppresses interest rates, then capital earns virtually nothing. Entrepreneurs have no incentive to be prudent in their borrowing, and holders of capital are left with no choice but speculation in risky assets lest their capital melt away in an engineered environment of "benign" (slow steady erosion of capital) inflation. Recall that "low" 2.5% inflation will rob you of a third of your capital every decade.

This…
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Martin Armstrong’s Brand New Essay On The Real Story Behind Goldman, Buffett, And The Fed

Martin Armstrong’s Brand New Essay On The Real Story Behind Goldman, Buffett, And The Fed

Courtesy of Joe Weisenthal at Clusterstock

We’ll admit we haven’t read this yet, and that we probably won’t get to it until this weekend. But those of you who have some time to kill on a Friday may enjoy Martin Armstrong’s latest letter, which looks like a classic.

Nathan’s Economic Edge, as usual, has the document:

What follows is 62 pages of Martin Armstrong spilling what he knows about the club, about politicians, about Goldman Sachs, Warren Buffett, murder, international intrigue, and his own involvement in all of it. We’ve seen a lot of it before, but this is certainly the most comprehensive and reads like a mini-epic in the making.

Those who have not followed Armstrong’s case will learn a great deal about it from reading this. Here you will get a good narrative of his perspective and how the events of his case are related to world happenings and market manipulations by members of the “club.” There is so much here to point out that I’m not even going to try and instead just recommend that you designate a couple of hours this weekend, sit down and read it.

Below is part I. Find the other two parts at Nathan’s Economic Edge >

Part I:
 

 


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HOW CAPITAL FLOWS WILL INFLUENCE THE DIRECTION OF THE DOW

HOW CAPITAL FLOWS WILL INFLUENCE THE DIRECTION OF THE DOW

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

As always, interesting reading from Martin Armstrong:


The-Dow-the-Future-Theory-Myth-12-6-09

 


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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Insider Scoop

Relaxed Regulations Highlight Nuclear ETFs

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The Environmental Protection Agency is considering a review of its 1977 rule that limits the amount of whole-body radiation that any member of the public can be exposed to as a result of the uranium fuel cycle.

While they have not made any immediate determination to change the current level of 0.25 millisieverts per year of allowable radiation, they are reviewing the scientific data to decide if changes need to be made.

Items under review include water resource protection, spent fuel storage facilities and alternative technologie...



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Zero Hedge

The Stealing Of America By The Cops, The Courts, The Corporations And Congress

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“What the government is good at is collecting taxes, taking away your freedoms and killing people. It’s not good at much else.” —Author Tom Clancy

Call it what you will—taxes, penalties, fees, fines, regulations, tariffs, tickets, permits, surcharges, tolls, asset forfeitures, foreclosures, etc.—but the only word that truly describes the constant bilking of the American taxpayer by the government and its corporate partners is th...



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Phil's Favorites

"No Perry Mason Moment": US Intelligence Admits "No Direct Evidence Linking Russia to MH17"

Courtesy of Mish.

Earlier today, and several times recently, I received emails accusing me of being a Russian spy and asking me how much I was receiving from RT. I find such accusations highly amusing.

Here's the deal: Few bloggers are willing to discuss MH17 for fear of getting it wrong. Whereas I suspect nearly everything, but especially reports coming from Kiev and the US. My reasons are threefold:

  1. There are more questions surrounding Kiev and US reports than Russian reports.
  2. Kiev has been caught twice in lies and distortions
  3. While neither US nor Russia is unbiased, the extremely one-sided, jump-to-conclusion reporting from Western media suggests close consideration of competing versions of stories is warranted.

No Perry Mason Moment

A few hours ago The Guardian reported ...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: An Intraday Record High

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The pre-open release of the Consumer Price Index showed core inflation in June to be a tad lighter than forecasts. The S&P 500 opened at its 0.10% intraday low and rallied to its 0.64% record intraday high about ninety minutes into the session. Strong existing home sales announced at 10 AM certainly helped. The index spent the rest of the day in a narrow trading range and closed with a 0.50% gain, a mere 0.10% off its record close of July 3rd.

The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.48%, 1 bp below yesterday's close. It is now only 4 bps above its interim closing low of May 28th.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions. The S&P 500 is up 7.31% year-to-date.

Volume on the SPY ETF, whi...



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Option Review

Sizable Call Spread Trades On Orexigen

A large call spread initiated on Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (Ticker: OREX) on Monday morning looks for shares in the name to rally approximately 30% by September expiration. The September expiration is noteworthy as the company awaits the results of the FDA’s review of its resubmitted New Drug Application (NDA) for NB32, an investigational medication being evaluated for weight loss, after the review was extended for three months back in June. The upcoming Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date is September 11, 2014, according to a press release issued by the company. Shares in Orexigen today are up roughly 0.40% at $5.34 as of 2:15 p.m. ET.

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls remain unfazed by borderline Black Swans

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic. But last Thursday’s news of the Malaysian airliner tragically getting shot down over Ukraine, coupled with Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, had the makings of a potential Black Swan event, which in my view is the only thing that could derail the relentless bull march higher in stocks.

Nevertheless, when it became clear that the airline...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 21st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Please use your PSW user name and password to log in. (You may take a free trial here.)

#452331232 / gettyimages.com ...

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Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Vs Gold - The Infographic

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Marc Faber has said "I will never sell my gold," he also noted "I like the idea of Bitcoin," and the battle between the 'alternative currencies' continues. The following infographic provides a succinct illustration of the similarities and differences between gold and bitcoin.

Please include attribution to www.jmbullion.com with this graphic.

...

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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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