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Posts Tagged ‘Martin Armstrong’

Armstrong Economics: Entering Phase II of The Debt Crisis

Introduction by Ilene

martin armstrongYou may be wondering why Chopshop is referencing Martin Armstrong’s writings, given Marty’s extended stay in maximum security prison.  Chopshop contends that Martin’s cyclic modeling is genius and ought to supersede whatever opinion one has of Armstrong’s case.

Armstrong is a gold-to-$5,000 guy.  Chopshop agrees that one day gold will likely reach those dollar-denominated "values", but believes that gold will likely digest its 400% gain of the past decade over the next few years before ‘going for the gusto.’

Chopshop and Fibozachi have remained steadfast in calling for first targets of 81 and 84 on the US dollar since they nailed its bottom on December 3rd.  (See also this and this.) They believe we are at a juncture within the credit crisis where "gold is much more likely to take a $350 John Edwards-style haircut before reaching $1450 and beyond."

Back to Armstrong, whose proclivity for gold stems "not from an ill-conceived loathing of the dollar but from an impeccably nuanced study of history’s mosaic.  Chopshop thinks Armstrong’s work can be appreciated by all, "not only because of Marty’s historical breadth but also because his forecasts are predicated upon explicit methodology."

So I asked Chopshop why Martin was in prison, and, for the first time he paused, answering a few seconds later that the reason is because Martin didn’t "obey the rules of Fight Club" ~ you don’t talk about Fight Club and you don’t talk about the alleged collusion of broker/dealers, investment banks, hedge funds and nation-states publicly when "they" are who you consult / manage money for. Armstrong spoke to the manipulation of silver futures by JPM, named Warren Buffett as a mystery $2 billion futures participant of "the Club" and, ultimately, spoke to alleged cabals operating from within, yet behind, financial markets.  Marty spoke about the game being rigged by the Club, being anything but a random walk. Is such the reason for his incarceration with extreme prejudice; not his Pi cycles, public-private pendulum or other brilliant work within cyclic periodicity? So basically, he’s in the hole on trumped up charges.

The long and short of it, according to Chop’s opinion, is that Martin is a political prisoner and cyclic genius who speaks to the intermediate and long-term horizon with probabilistic prescience.  He’s not selling anything and not offering actionable advice. He’s focused solely on finding robust patterns within his models and across history.  Marty has a nearly…
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Armstrong Economics: Entering Phase II of The Debt Crisis

Introduction by Ilene

martin armstrongYou may be wondering why Chopshop is referencing Martin Armstrong’s writings, given Marty’s extended stay in maximum security prison.  Chopshop contends that Martin’s cyclic modeling is genius and ought to supersede whatever opinion one has of Armstrong’s case.

Armstrong is a gold-to-$5,000 guy.  Chopshop agrees that one day gold will likely reach those dollar-denominated "values", but believes that gold will likely digest its 400% gain of the past decade over the next few years before ‘going for the gusto.’

Chopshop and Fibozachi have remained steadfast in calling for first targets of 81 and 84 on the US dollar since they nailed its bottom on December 3rd.  (See also this and this.) They believe we are at a juncture within the credit crisis where "gold is much more likely to take a $350 John Edwards-style haircut before reaching $1450 and beyond."

Back to Armstrong, whose proclivity for gold stems "not from an ill-conceived loathing of the dollar but from an impeccably nuanced study of history’s mosaic.  Chopshop thinks Armstrong’s work can be appreciated by all, "not only because of Marty’s historical breadth but also because his forecasts are predicated upon explicit methodology."

So I asked Chopshop why Martin was in prison, and, for the first time he paused, answering a few seconds later that the reason is because Martin didn’t "obey the rules of Fight Club" ~ you don’t talk about Fight Club and you don’t talk about the alleged collusion of broker/dealers, investment banks, hedge funds and nation-states publicly when "they" are who you consult / manage money for. Armstrong spoke to the manipulation of silver futures by JPM, named Warren Buffett as a mystery $2 billion futures participant of "the Club" and, ultimately, spoke to alleged cabals operating from within, yet behind, financial markets.  Marty spoke about the game being rigged by the Club, being anything but a random walk. Is such the reason for his incarceration with extreme prejudice; not his Pi cycles, public-private pendulum or other brilliant work within cyclic periodicity? So basically, he’s in the hole on trumped up charges.

The long and short of it, according to Chop’s opinion, is that Martin is a political prisoner and cyclic genius who speaks to the intermediate and long-term horizon with probabilistic prescience.  He’s not selling anything and not offering actionable advice. He’s focused solely on…
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Low Interest Rates and Easy Credit Are Catastrophes for Any Economy

Low Interest Rates and Easy Credit Are Catastrophes for Any Economy

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds

The Federal Reserve insists that super-low interest rates and loose lending are the keys to renewed growth. Their analysis is fatally flawed; those are catastrophically destructive policies in any economy.

One of the key analytic tools in the Survival+ critique is very simple to grasp: sort out the incentives and disincentives, and you are halfway to a systemic understanding.

For example, U.S. sickcare (a.k.a. "healthcare") is fundamentally doomed to insolvency and collapse because its incentives for all participants are entirely perverse. (Please see Perverse Incentives and a Government Doomed to Collapse January 14, 2010).

With this is mind, let’s examine the incentives built into the Federal Reserve policy of super-low interest rates and loose lending ("easy credit"). The fundamental idea here is straightfoward: consumers have limitless desires, and all we need to do to reinvigorate consumer spending is make borrowing more money both cheap and convenient/easy.

But what about the hidden incentives and disincentives? This policy is incredibly perverse in several profound ways:

1. it provides a powerful disincentive to saving (accumulating capital)

2. it offers a powerful incentive to speculate with "free money" provided by lenders

3. it provides a powerful incentive to leverage a small amount of capital/cash into gigantic bets via "easy money" (3% down payment mortgages, etc.)

4. it rewards risk and destroys moral hazard because the losses incurred by the borrower deploying massive leverage are extremely modest (3% down isn’t much to lose, so why not gamble that housing with rise 30% from here?)

5. it incentivizes a feedback loop of ever-expanding bets, leverage and borrowing (i.e. housing speculators buying a second, third and fourth home because they made a killing on their first house) which "rewards" the speculative mania with ever higher assets prices as this specious "demand" grows with expanding leverage and debt.

6. In a financial system which actively suppresses interest rates, then capital earns virtually nothing. Entrepreneurs have no incentive to be prudent in their borrowing, and holders of capital are left with no choice but speculation in risky assets lest their capital melt away in an engineered environment of "benign" (slow steady erosion of capital) inflation. Recall that "low" 2.5% inflation will rob you of a third of your capital every decade.

This…
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Martin Armstrong’s Brand New Essay On The Real Story Behind Goldman, Buffett, And The Fed

Martin Armstrong’s Brand New Essay On The Real Story Behind Goldman, Buffett, And The Fed

Courtesy of Joe Weisenthal at Clusterstock

We’ll admit we haven’t read this yet, and that we probably won’t get to it until this weekend. But those of you who have some time to kill on a Friday may enjoy Martin Armstrong’s latest letter, which looks like a classic.

Nathan’s Economic Edge, as usual, has the document:

What follows is 62 pages of Martin Armstrong spilling what he knows about the club, about politicians, about Goldman Sachs, Warren Buffett, murder, international intrigue, and his own involvement in all of it. We’ve seen a lot of it before, but this is certainly the most comprehensive and reads like a mini-epic in the making.

Those who have not followed Armstrong’s case will learn a great deal about it from reading this. Here you will get a good narrative of his perspective and how the events of his case are related to world happenings and market manipulations by members of the “club.” There is so much here to point out that I’m not even going to try and instead just recommend that you designate a couple of hours this weekend, sit down and read it.

Below is part I. Find the other two parts at Nathan’s Economic Edge >

Part I:
 

 


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HOW CAPITAL FLOWS WILL INFLUENCE THE DIRECTION OF THE DOW

HOW CAPITAL FLOWS WILL INFLUENCE THE DIRECTION OF THE DOW

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

As always, interesting reading from Martin Armstrong:


The-Dow-the-Future-Theory-Myth-12-6-09

 


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Phil's Favorites

Spain to Suspend Evictions, Rewrite Bankruptcy Law Making Mortgage Debt Dischargeable

Courtesy of Mish.

Under a new set of family insolvency laws in Spain, those who have stopped paying their mortgage will be shielded from eviction from their homes.

Via translation from El Confidential, please consider Changing the Bankruptcy Law.
A bill in Parliament proposes new regulations on family insolvencies and will protect from eviction all those individuals who have suspended mortgage payments. The reform centers around rights of the 'consumer debtor' which will have full legal guarantees to negotiate funding agreements with creditors for half of the ac...



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Zero Hedge

NatGas Crashes Most In 10 Months As Polar Vortex Arrival Delayed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Natural Gas prices are down over 11.5% in the last 2 days, falling to their lowest price since January 2013, as a familiar tale of excess production in the face of ebbing demand looms large. As WSJ reports, BNP Paribas' Teri Viswanath notes "the delayed return of cold weather has simply curbed all buying interest," and this was exaggerated by technical selling as the market broke previous support around 3.50. Ironically, given its detrimental impact on GDP, Macquarie points out, "it is increasingly apparent to us that weather will need to b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of December 22nd, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



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Chart School

Can you make a living trading Springs and UpThrusts?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

We tell the truth about trading springs and upthrusts, no holding back!

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NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote...
 

..“The market always tells you what to do. It tells you: Get in. Get out. Move your stop. Close out. Stay neutral. Wait for a better chance. All these things the market is continually impressing upon you, and you must get into the frame of mind where you are in reality taking your orders from the action of the market itself — from the tape.”&hel...



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Digital Currencies

Chart o' the Day: Don't "Invest" in Stupid Sh*t

Joshua commented on the QZ article I posted a couple days ago and perfectly summarized the take-home message into an Investing Lesson. 

Chart o’ the Day: Don’t “Invest” in Stupid Sh*t

Courtesy of 

The chart above comes from Matt Phillips at Quartz and is a good reminder of why you shouldn’t invest in s...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Energy sector rains on bulls' parade, but skies may clear soon

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stocks have needed a reason to take a breather and pull back in this long-standing ultra-bullish climate, with strong economic data and seasonality providing impressive tailwinds -- and plummeting oil prices certainly have given it to them. But this minor pullback was fully expected and indeed desirable for market health. The future remains bright for the U.S. economy and corporate profits despite the collapse in oil, and now the overbought technical condition has been relieved. While most sectors are gathering fundamental support and our sector rotation model remains bullish, the Energy sector looks fundamentally weak and continues to ran...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

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Option Review

SPX Call Spread Eyes Fresh Record Highs By Year End

Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...



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Market Shadows

Official Moves in the Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio

By Ilene 

I officially bought 250 shares of EZCH at $18.76 and sold 300 shares of IGT at $17.09 in Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio yesterday (Fri. 11-21).

Click here for Thursday's post where I was thinking about buying EZCH. After further reading, I decided to add it to the virtual portfolio and to sell IGT and several other stocks, which we'll be saying goodbye to next week.

Notes

1. th...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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