"I will not fear Fearisthemind killer, Fearisthe little death
That brings total Oblivion
I will permit my fear to pass
Over me and through me
And where it has gone
I will turn the inner eye
Nothing will be there
Only I will remain."
That isthe Bene Gesserit incantation for bravery from Frank Herbert’s "Dune," one of my favorite books. When the markets turn nasty on us it is time to get analytical, not emotional and we need to let our fear pass over us as we step back and evaluate the situation with fresh eyes, and a calm mind.
Above is a chart of our major indexes and their year-to-date performance. As we tested our -5% lines last week, we added a fresh round of Disaster Hedges, a series of trade ideas that can make 500% or more if the market falls further and in an afternoon Alert to Members yesterday, we added another SDS hedge with a 400% upside. Having some high-reward hedges in your virtual portfolio allows you to set aside just 2% to protect your entire virtual portfolio against a 10% drop in the markets. 10% is A LOT for the markets to fall and, of course, now that they have brakes on the market, we can always add more hedges along the way down. Should the market fall "just" 5%, we STILL make 10% on our hedges and that nets our virtual portfolio (in this example) UP 5% on a 5% drop in the market. If our bullish plays were also hedged with covers – then so much the better!
Most importantly, having a balanced virtual portfolio with hedges allows you to play the market WITHOUT FEAR. Warren Buffett famously advises investors to "Be greedy when others are fearful" and our own PSW Rule #1 is "Always sell into the initial excitement," which doesn’t mean always buy but we look for opportunities to sell fear (naked puts) on a dip, the same way we sell our own positions into spikes up that we consider overdone.
In last week’s "Disaster" article, I wondered if we were in the panic/capitulation part of the above chart and,…
Note that in David’s picture, Bernanke is still playing the role of the generous bartender he played in the hit video "Hayek vs. Keynes – An Economic Smackdown." Note this all ends badly for Keynes but WHAT A PARTY!
We made 3 aggressive upside spreads looking for a big finish for the week in yesterday morning’s Alert to Members on SSO, QLD and DDM. Fortunately our timing was good as my call to look for a run once we got past the 10:30 oil inventory report was on the money but then we were very disappointed by the size of the sell-off in the afternoon – even though we were short at that point (we can root for the bulls while betting against them). It’s all about jobs this morning and we need to see less the 450,000 pink slips handed out in the past week to get a little more aggressive.
My prediction in the morning was: "We should get our bottoms with the crude inventories at 10:30 so no hurry on bullish plays, most likely. Selling XOM $60 puts for $1 or more (now .47) on a dip today is a nice play into expirations as you can always roll them along." The XOM puts topped out at .63, so no luck there, but the action (see Davids chart) was right on the money for us:
We took a long play on USO at the bottom that did well (and we took money and ran) and we flipped back to bearish at 1:41 with put plays on IWM and DIA that did nicely into the close. As I had said in the morning post – blissful agnosticism!
8:30 Update: 500,000 jobs lost last week! Ouch!!! Looks like we should have held onto those puts because this is going…
Note: The charts below have been updated with the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures price index from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The annualized rate of change is calculated to two decimal places for more precision in the side-by-side comparison with the Consumer Price Index.
The BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for May, released today, shows that core remains inflation below the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 1.62%, The latest YoY Core PCE index (less Food and Energy) came in at 1.62%, virtually unchanged from the previous month's downwardly revised 1.58% and down from its Februa...
I haven't done many real estate posts lately, although, as an update to this one (in which an empty dirt lot was being offered for $10 million) I'll mention that although the For Sale sign seemed to linger longer than usual, it was supplemented ...
Following two economic reports this week, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast rose 0.1 percentage points to 2.7%.
Latest forecast: 2.7 percent — June 29, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.7 percent on June 29, up from 2.6 percent on June 24. The forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 4.1 percent to 4.3 percent after this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was partly offset by a decline in th...
Wednesday may be the most important day of the year for large U.S. banks, with the Federal Reserve set to release its verdicts on whether they have passed or failed annual stress tests. The 33 large U.S. banks taking...
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Shares of TESARO Inc (NASDAQ:TSRO) are super hot today today on Ovarian Cancer results and the rally could continue to be hot until phase 3 results in the fall. The stock is up at the time of this written by over $40, 110%, destroying the shorts (at least for today). The sell side are panicing to play catch up with price targets here is what they are saying.
This morning TESARO Inc (NASDAQ:TSRO reported long-waited Ph3 NOVA data, showing s.s. PFS benefits in both cohorts; plans to file for U.S. & EU approval in 4Q16. Contrary to our cautious stance on non-gBRCAm/HRD+ arm following experts’ discussions, this arm also showed s.s clinically meaningful PFS benefits of ~9mo. AE profile was consistent with Ph1 data (most common Gr3/4 AEs thrombocytopenia, anemia & neutropenia). Full data to b...
The media seems to be focused on the Brexit issue, with most of the coverage suggesting it was a negative event. Regardless of the media’s focus, prices are attempting to do something in Europe, that could be bullish and surprise a few investors.
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The FTSE 100 Index remains in a long-term bullish trend (lower highs and higher highs) over the past 5-years. The bottom of the rising channel (A) was hit in Fe...
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This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
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I have mixed feelings about Brexit today. Clearly the European institution need reforming. The addition of so many countries in the last 20 years has created a top heavy administration. The Euro adds more complexities to the equation as the ECB policies cannot fit every country's problem. On the other hand, a unified Europe has advantages as well – some countries have benefited from the integration.
For Britain, it's hard to say what the final price will be. My guess is that Scotland might now vote for independence as they supported staying in Europe overwhelmingly. Northern Ireland might be tempted to leave as well so possibly RIP UK in the long run. I was talking to some French people and they were saying that now there might be no incentive for France to stop immigrants from crossing over to the UK like they do now and simply allow for travel there and let the UK deal with them. The end game is not clear to anyone at the moment....
One week ago, when bitcoin first crossed above $700 on the seemingly insatiable Chinese buying which we forecast last September (when bitcoin was trading at $230) would take place as a result of China's capital controls (to much pushback by the "mainstream" financial media), we tried to predict what may happen next. We said that "it could go much higher. That said, anyone who bought last September when the digital currency was trading at $230 may be advised to take some profits, and at least make...
After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at firstname.lastname@example.org with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
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considered to be reliable. However, neither PSW Investments, LLC d/b/a PhilStockWorld (PSW)
nor its affiliates
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