Posts Tagged ‘NDX’

SP 500 and NDX December Futures Daily Charts

SP 500 and NDX December Futures Daily Charts

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

The market is acting like there is a ‘Bernanke Put’ underneath it in the form of a handsome QE II to be unveiled at the FOMC in early November.


Meanwhile the financial sector is imploding because of the continual revelations of pervasive mortgage fraud.

It will be interesting to see if the PPT can hold things together until the November elections in the States.

 


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Danger Zone? Nasdaq 100

Danger Zone? Nasdaq 100

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are we entering a “Danger Zone” right now?

The phrase “Highway to the Danger Zone“  (theme song here) became popular due to the movie “Top Gun,” starring Tom Cruise. 

I share information with several types of investors…long-term (retirement/401k plans) that don’t move monies often, (which “harvested” at the April highs).  Medium term investors, that feel comfortable moving monies once a month/6 weeks and shorter-term investors that are open to adjustments frequently, yet are NOT day traders. I am not interested in day trading!!!

This post would be for the shorter-term audience, that are aggressive and open to “attempting to score on defense!”

The NDX 100 is at the top of its trading range and the VXN has created a falling wedge.  During this trading channel,  when the NDX is at the top of the range, wedges have formed, followed by lower prices in the NDX. 

For any medium-term investors that are long the NDX, stay long and keep the 3% stop in play!   For those aggressive short-term investors that are comfortable attempting to score on defense, take the inverse position here (Buy PSQ).  Momentum and trends remain a positive so far. This is totally a “Power of the Pattern” play for short-term investors. 

If this pattern really forces the NDX lower and changes it momentum, I will follow-up with more suggestions per scoring on defense. 


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SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

SP 500

Except for perhaps some hedging or a daily ‘skin’ this is not a market to be shorted until the uptrend is broken. It is drifting higher on a steady short squeeze and light volumes in the kind of artificial action that is reminiscent of the 2004-2006 reflationary stock market rally fueled by Fed easy money.

An event can bring it down and quickly. But one can burn a lot of cash trying to pick a top ahead of the market signal that it has gone far enough. I do think that the two gaps will be filled, and that this market will retest its lows again. The timing is problematic, especially given the upcoming November elections. No president or Congress wishes to go into an important general election on the heels of a stock market crash. But this could serve the desires of those on Wall Street. So a continued rally is hardly a ‘sure thing’ despite the statistical profile of the SP 500 in the second year of a presidential term.

The SP 500 is up against resistance but the NDX has broken out cleanly. With relatively few risk-comparable productive outlets the excess of the easy money being fed to the Wall Street banks by the Fed is flowing into the higher yielding ‘risk trades’ like junk bonds and equities. In the absence of a strongly directive fiscal policy and honest price discovery this is what happens when monetary stimulus is applied without a broader policy support. It is hard for real economic proposals to compete with a Ponzi scheme that insiders control and that has a de facto sanction and subsidy from the governing authority. And this then is the basis for Obama’s failure most likely sourced in his Wall Street friendly advisors, Summers and Geithner, and his own natural tendency to ‘go along to get along’ and sacrifice principle to expediency. This potential strength, the ability to find and form a consensus, can become a tragic flaw when carried to excess.

The NDX is a more obvious example of this reflationary risk trade.

NDX


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Peter D – Confessions of the PSW Strangler

Peter D has a long-running and very successful system of selling premiums on a regular basis that's well worth learning.

Investors selling a short strangle are expecting the underlying stock to not move much in either direction. The strategy is accomplished by selling a call option at a higher price than the current stock or ETF price and by selling a put option at a lower price than the current stock or ETF price. Both of the options will have the same expiration month. The investor in a short strangle benefits from the underlying moving within the spread between the call strike and the put strike.

There are two reasons we like this strategy a lot at PSW:

1) It's boring!  Unless the market is MUCH more volatile than normal, taking sensible, NON-GREEDY, out-of-the-money short option positions is a fairly market-neutral way to place our bets.  While the risk/reward ratio may seem inverted, statistically it's a winning play over time.

2)  It's perfect for our "be the house, not the sucker" philosophy of trading.  We are always looking to SELL volatility. The idea behind this trade is that front-month volatility is relatively expensive compared to historical long-term volatility and we take advantage of selling a very high cumulative volatility over the course of the year.  

We recently ran a collection of comments following through on some trades over time and quite a while ago Sage wrote an article relating about using short strangles on longer-term stock plays, which provides some additional ideas on how to apply this strategy.  Peter has been kind enough to provide us with a definitive guide to help set you on the road to a successful career as a strangler.  The following is a collection of posts (make sure you use the links) on Short Strangles and the Crazy plays on the indices (SPX, RUT, NDX, etc.):
 
1- The Crazy play consists of a Short Strangle and a protective long put vertical. These plays are mainly for Virtual Portfolio Margin accounts, with balance greater than $125,000, preferably over $200k as the margin can swing wildly.  

2- Very rough comparison among Short Strangle, Iron Condor, Buy/Write and straight stock purchase. Note the rolling tips in the second to last paragraph.
 
3- VIX, the effects of.
 
4- Possible
continue reading


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Phil's Favorites

"Shrinkflation" - How Food Companies Implement Massive Price Hikes Without You Ever Noticing

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Do you ever get the sense that your favorite steak at that Quick Service Restaurant of your choice keeps getting thinner and thinner all while your check size at the end of the night continues getting larger and larger. Well, it is. How else are publicly traded chains going to continue to deliver margin growth to Wall Street in the midst of rising labor costs, rising commodity costs and shrinking customer traffic?

As a new study in the U.K. just revealed, shrinking portion sizes among food manufacturers is actually way more common than you might think and you probably never even noticed it. In fact, according to data from the Office for National Statistics, over 2,500 consumer products in the U.K. shrunk in size over the past five...



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Biotech

Biologics: The pricey drugs transforming medicine

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Biologics: The pricey drugs transforming medicine

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

The cells inside this bioreactor are the real pharmaceutical factories. Sanofi Pasteur, CC BY-NC-ND

In a factory just outside San Francisco, there’s an upright stainless steel vat the size of a small car, and it’s got something swirling inside.

The vat is stud...



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ValueWalk

A Very Simple Formula For Figuring Out How Many Stocks To Hold

By The Acquirer's Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

At the Acquirer’s Multiple we believe your equally weighted portfolio should consist of 20-30 stocks generated from our Deep Value Stock Screens.

In general terms, holding more stocks leads to greater diversification, and lower volatility, but is harder to manage and requires more purchases. Fewer stocks reduces the number of purchases, but leads to great volatility, and magnifies the impact on the portfolio of an unexpected event.

]]> Get The Full Walter Schloss Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Walter Schloss in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

We respect your ...



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Zero Hedge

Lagarde Hints At IMF Being Based In China In Future

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In a comment sure to stir up questions over dollar hegemony (and new world order conspiracy thoughts), IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde admitted during an event today in Washington that The International Monetary Fund could be based in Beijing in a decade.

As Reuters reports, Lagarde said that such a move was "a possibility" be...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Insider Scoop

Analyst Comes Out Bullish On Blue Apron, Says Competition Concerns Already Priced In

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For July 24, 2017 25 Stocks Moving In Monday's Pre-Market Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jul 23, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

This past week represented so many of the weeks of 2017; slow action with a bit of an upward skew.   Monday, Tuesday, Thursday were sleeping – and minor gains Wednesday were offset by small losses Friday; in the end we had small gains for the week!  Rinse, wash, repeat.   For the week the S&P 500 added 0.5% and the NASDAQ 1.2%.  Sixty eight S&P 500 companies reported earnings this past week so that was the focus.

Fun fact:  Until Friday’s loss, the NASDAQ had a 10 day string of gains, matching its longest streak since Feb. 24, 2015.

The European Central Bank left key rates unchanged...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Nears All-Time High on Spike Above Daily Chart Downchannel Resistance

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) crushed shorts yesterday, smashing above the daily chart's downchannel resistance and soaring towards the all-time high around 3000. With yesterday's massive rally, the negative weekly MACD crossover has been proved a false signal.  Odds are quite good that a sustainable longer term BTC/USD bottom was found last week, especially with ETH/USD also strongly rebounding this past week.  Some consolidation can be expected today with daily RSI and Stochastics tiring, although with daily MACD just having positive...



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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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