Posts Tagged ‘Non-Farm Payroll’

America About to Turn 238 – Rally Turns 2.5

Happy Birthday America! 

The markets are closed tomorrow and today is a half day but the trend is certainly our friend on the S&P as we haven't been below the 200 day moving average since December of 2011 (except a couple of very brief dips).  Though the average volume is about 30% lower than it was back then – it's still an impressive feat.  

Of course, if 10% of the market was manipulated before and the manipulators haven't left (they certainly haven't) – even if the level of manipulation remained the same, 30% of the 90% that wasn't manipulated (retail investors) did leave (possibly BECAUSE of the manipulation) and that means now manipulators control 10% of the remaining 70%, a 42% increase in manipulation!  Of course we know it's much worse than that because now the Central Banksters perform their own brand of market manipulation.  As noted by Salient Partners in a great article about PBOC Manipulation:

The explicit purpose of recent monetary policy is: to paper over anemic real economic growth with financial asset inflation. It’s a brilliant political solution to the political problem of low growth in the West, because our political stability does not depend on robust real economic growth. So long as we avoid outright negative growth (and even that’s okay so long as it can be explained away by “the weather” or some such rationale) and prop up the financial asset values that in turn support a levered system, we can very slowly grow or inflate our way out of debt. Or not. The debt can hang out there … forever, essentially … so long as there’s no exogenous shock. A low-growth zombie financial system where credit is treated as a government utility is a perfectly stable outcome in the West. 

So China has indeed learned the most valuable lesson of Capitalism – that money is a meaningless contstruct that can be freely manipulated to fit whatever narrative the Government wishes to spin and that debt is not to be feared, but embraced, especially by our Corporate Masters – because our National Debt becomes their Private Profits!  

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Very Good Friday – Wrapping up a Great Week (for the Bears)

NOW things are getting interesting!

Who wants a market that goes up and up and up – where's the sport?  Even the Nasdaq finally blew it's 15-week winning streak and that helped us decide to stay pretty bearish going into yesterday's close.  This morning we went over the news and the week's data to position ourselves for the Futures and my conclusion to Members in our special 4:03 am Alert was:  

Next week we get the BBook, PPI and CPI but the focus will be on earnings and AA is not likely to get us off to a good start so I simply don't see anything in particular to be bullish about at the moment. 

The point I had been making (with many charts and graphs) was that it didn't matter if we added even 250,000 jobs – it still isn't enough to begin to fill in the hole in any meaningful way and, even more important, the QUALITY of jobs we have been adding is TERRIBLE!  

It doesn't matter if you give everyone a job if they are only minimum wage jobs.  We need our consumers to have an income to spend and aside from inflation (real inflation, not the Fed's BS numbers) eating into their buying power, when someone loses a $50,000 job and replaces it with a $35,000 job – that's NOT an improving economy – not for the long run, anyway.  

Of course the stock market will like it, at first – as lower wages paid for the same job = greater Corporate Profits but that only works as long as there are people outside your country who have money to buy your goods

As we noted just yesterday with the Retail Reports, the high-end stores are doing very well as the top 10% is doing well but those serving the bottom 90% are struggling because, clearly, these people are running out of money.  While the market has been content to "ignore and soar" during this gathering storm, now we begin to see the…
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FHFA Friday – Potential Lawsuit Tanks Banks

$30 Billion – that's bound to get their attention!  

According to the WSJ, the Federal Housing Finance Agency is set to file suits against more than a dozen big banks, accusing them of misrepresenting the quality of mortgage securities they assembled and sold at the height of the housing bubble. The suits, which are expected to be filed in the coming days in federal court, are aimed at Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, among others, according to three individuals briefed on the matter.

The suits stem from subpoenas the finance agency issued to banks a year ago. If the case is not filed Friday, they said, it will come Tuesday, shortly before a deadline expires for the housing agency to file claims arguing the banks, which assembled the mortgages and marketed them as securities to investors, failed to perform the due diligence required under securities law and missed evidence that borrowers’ incomes were inflated or falsified. When many borrowers were unable to pay their mortgages, the securities backed by the mortgages quickly lost value.

Fannie and Freddie lost more than $30 billion, in part as a result of the deals, losses that were borne mostly by taxpayers. In July, the agency filed suit against UBS, another major mortgage securitizer, seeking to recover at least $900 million, and the individuals with knowledge of the case said the new litigation would be similar in scope.  

Tim Rood, who worked at Fannie Mae until 2006 and is now a partner at the Collingwood Group, which advises banks and servicers on housing-related issues, agrees with what I told Members in last night's chat:  

"While I believe that F.H.F.A. is acting responsibly in its role as conservator, I am afraid that we risk pushing these guys off of a cliff and we’re going to have to bail out the banks again.”

In other words – MADNESS!  What was the point of spending Trillions of Dollars bailing out the Banks if you are going to turn around and sue them for $30Bn and drop their stock price another Trillion, causing them to need another bailout?  

Perhaps this is the denouement of a week of scary market rumors that seem to have been…
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Thursday – Back Home In The Range

Wheee, that was fun!

We're already back in our range after all that hand-wringing last week.  I like to do these perspective charts once in a while even though I'm not much of a chart guy.  It's funny how people lose their minds over what was clearly a minor dip so far – never even coming close to threatening our 5% rule, which is the only way we're likely to give up hope

Our next big challenge is getting over the 1,088 Fibonacci line but after that we should have a clear shot to retaking 1,100.  Nobody expects good jobs numbers today but more than 460,000 lay-offs in this morning's report will probably keep us on hold through tomorrow's NFP report at least.  Notice how yesterday's fat-body candle was as big as any of our recent big drops – that means the bears are as freaked out about yesterday's action as the bulls were about the flash-crash and there's a lot of bears out there – crossing that 1,100 line this week could lead to a pretty good short-squeeze into the weekend. 

As I had mentioned way back on May 5th, our expected downtrend along the 5% rule was  1,155, 1,114, 1,100, 1,073 and 1,045.  Now we just have to work our way back up that ladder!  Since earnings were not as exciting as we had hoped, our expected mid-point on the S&P has since dropped from 1,100 to 1,070, which alters (lowers) our expectations slightly but not too much from a long-term standpoint and there hasn't been a need to adjust our long-term positions as we hit our buy point on the nose at 1,045 and, of course, we have our hedges.

Speaking of hedges, on August 25th, with the S&P down at 1,045, we looked at Disaster Hedges that could make 500% if the market falls.  The idea is to take 2% of your virtual portfolio value in a play that makes 10% if the market falls 5% or more as insurance.  We do this so we DON'T have to panic out of positions at an inflection point.

Some people take them right off if we hold our levels and some people use our 1,070 and 10,200 lines (both passed yesterday, of course) as a signal to take
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Thank Jobs It’s Friday!

Do I know what the jobs data will be at 8:30?  Nope.

Then why would I title a post "Thank Jobs It's Friday!" – what if the report sucks and we go down?  Well, at this point, even if that does happen, I think that will be the end of it.  We've been building up to this "terrible" jobs number all week and we got a rotten ADP Report and a rotten Unemployment Report so everyone is expecting a rotten Non-Farm Payroll report.  When everyone expects the same thing, we like to bet against it.  Sometimes we're wrong and sometimes we're right but you make some amazing money when you are right.  The magnitude of the short squeeze that would follow a significantly BTE NFP Report could send up up 300 points or more on the day, likely with a big finish this afternoon and some follow-through on Tuesday as the rest of the world plays catch-up.

A bad report, on the other hand, is already baked into the cake and we have yet to test S&P 1,000 so we can expect support there.  It wouldn't be pleasant, but we should be able to scramble and protect ourselves if we head lower so the smart move is to play for the mega-move higher, and that's where we are.  Of course, it's also a balance issue.  In our last Weekly Wrap-Up, we had the following open trade ideas going into June 21st (we had gotten bearish at the end of the previous week):

  • APOL July $40 puts spread at .46, now .60 – up 30%
  • BBY Jan $37 puts sold for $4, now $3 – up 25%
  • BP July $30/32 bull call spread at $1, now .70 – down 30% 
  • YRCW at .21, now .15 – down 28%
  • BP Oct $33/July $33 ratio backspread (3:5) at net $225, now $524 – up 132%
  • TZA July $7 calls .08 (net of spread), now $1.50 – up 1,775%
  • SIRI 2012 $1 puts sold at .33, still .33 – even
  • USO July $33 puts at .51, now $1.08 – up 131%
  • GLL July $37 puts, sold for $1.30, now .35 – up 70%

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Thank Jobs It’s Friday!

US Markets are closed today.

Most markets are closed.  Japan was open and they went up 41 points (0.37%) and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index also went up 0.3% in Tokyo 1trading and Russia fell 0.1% but markets in Australia, Hong Kong, China, New Zealand, Singapore, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, the U.S. and all of western Europe are closed today for holidays.  Strangley though, the Futures Market is open this morning so that can make things very tricky on a big data day like today.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has gained 1.7 percent this week as growth in China’s manufacturing and an increase in U.S. consumer spending bolstered optimism the global economic recovery is gaining momentum. The index this week completed its fourth consecutive quarterly advance with a 3.9 percent increase in the three months through March 31. Shares in the gauge trade at 16.4 times estimated earnings, compared with 14.8 times for the MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations.  “The global macroeconomic recovery is behind the current uptrend in equities,” said Tomomi Yamashita, of $3.8Bn Shinkin Asset Management. “That trend is unlikely to change though the market is getting overheated.”

Underemployment in U.S. Workforce, December 2009-March 2010 Monthly TrendWe get Non-Farm Payrolls at 8:30 and, obviously, investors are expecting a report that shows the US firmly on the road to recovery but I have already been reading a Gallup poll on Underemployment that suggests otherwise.  According to the March tracking poll, 20.3% of the US workforce was UNDERemployed and that is UP 0.5% from February.  . Gallup classifies respondents as underemployed if they are unemployed or working part-time but wanting full-time work. Gallup employment data are not seasonally adjusted.  

Those underemployed people are mainly counted as employed in the NFP report and are a major distortion of the numbers, especially as the main delta component was a huge rise in part-time workers, from 9.2% to 9.9% and, like temps, they tend to be counted by the government as happy, happy workers.  Unemployment (no job at all) measured by Gallup decreased from 10.6% to 10.4% and you can see from the following chart how those two are related:

Underemployment Components, December 2009-March 2010 Monthly Trend

According to Gallup, as unemployed Americans find part-time, temporary, and seasonal work, the official unemployment rate could decline. However,…
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Friday Already? Non-Farm Follies.

Well I promised a thrilling ride yesterday and we sure got one!

We had a quick and wild drop right out of the gate, falling 75 points off Wednesday’s drop from 10,589 at 3pm.  But we rapidly gained it all back after holding our watch levels across the board, which was certainly technically bullish.  Our big mistake this year has been to ignore the technicals and worry about the fundamentals and we are very much on the wrong side of this trade if we do hold our breakouts into the weekend.  It’s all about the jobs report, of course – and we’ll get that news at 8:30

We are going to have to not worry and be happy about our breakouts should they come today.  I think it’s all a load of ridiculous crap and we had a long discussion this morning in Member chat about my fundamental concerns but the GS trade-bots don’t care what our fundamental concerns are, especially now that the heat is on Geithner and the great gifts he bestowed on GS et al through the AIG payments (following through on ex-Goldman CEO Paulson’s plans).   If the markets falter, the Congressional investigations begin again so everyone involved now has more of a vested interest than ever to keep these plates spinning no matter what the underlying fundamentals may be.

We’ll get a jobs number shortly but, as Mish points out, the government spent a record $14.7Bn on unemployment benefits in December, up 24% from November’s record $11.8Bn, "Yet the DOL has disclosed a mere 1.7% increase in those to whom insurance benefits are paid."  Did we pay thos 200,000 newly unemployed people $7,350 a month each or is there some kind of nonsense going on with the statistics? 

As you can see from the chart, "emergency compensation" is flying, even as the standard-measured continuing claims numbers begin to slow down.  The black line on this chart illustrates what happens when you count what the government doesn’t – the emergency and extended unemployment benefits.  How long can we keep sweeping $14.7Bn a month under the rug while claiming to be in recovery?  Apparently, a long time!

8:30 Update:  Hey, maybe I’m wrong.  Somehow we lost 85,000 jobs, which is a lot more in-line with reality than the bullish expectations we’ve been hearing all week.  November was revised to +4K from -11K…
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Thank Jobs It’s Friday

Well, yesterday was fun!

As we expected, the massive pre-market pump job failed once again to push our breakout levels and that led to 6 of our 7 day trades coming out winners in Member Chat.  We're still waiting on the 7th, our MOS puts that were meant to be a weekend hold anyway so not really a day-trade but it was lots of fun after sitting mainly on the sidelines this week waiting for a good opportunity to jump in.  Our plan from the morning post to buy out our DIA putters worked perfectly as well and we even went bullish on the DIA's into yesterday's stick save so we're not even going to complain about that nonsense today!

It will take more than a stick to save the markets today if the jobs report is a disappointment.  GS, BCS and JPM have all lowered their loss predictions from around 370,000 lost jobs to 250-275,000 job losses and DB has gone completely off the wall with a prediction of just 150,000 losses!  As the US is gearing up for the 2010 census and as no one understands the mystical "seasonal adjustment" game and as GS pulls all the strings in government, we are hard-pressed to dismiss this seemingly ridiculous prediction.  What do the big 3 market manipuluators have to gain by raising expectations so high just ahead of the actual numbers?  Perhaps they have already finished their selling and have now fipped negative, looking to initiate a massive sell-off as jobs disappoint?  Or, perhaps, they are brilliant analysts who are well ahead of a number that will, finally, give us our long-awaited break out.

[Total workers on nonfarm payrolls]If the figures do surprise, it won't be in a statistically significant way. A payroll decline of 450,000, which would mortify Wall Street, would mean a 0.3% decline in total payrolls. A market-friendlier decline of 150,000, on the other hand, would represent a 0.1% decline. Percentage-wise, the difference is a crapshoot.  At some point, jobs data should improve meaningfully. The four-week moving average of new jobless claims is down 10% from late June. That translates into about 200,000 fewer job cuts a month, estimates High Frequency Economics economist Ian Shepherdson. "The risk of a substantial upward surprise on payrolls over the next few
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Zero Hedge

"Executive Orders For Sale": Leaked Email Shows Hillary Auctioning Off 'Laws' To The Highest Bidder

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by The Daily Sheeple's Melissa Dykes vis,

Unaccountable power multiplies, but this is astounding. This is a very good example of the reasons that ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

U.S. Dollar Rally: A tale of two chart patterns

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

This article was originally written for See It Market.

The U.S. Dollar Index has been trading in a wide consolidation pattern over the last 18 months or so.  But after the recent U.S. Dollar rally, that consolidation has formed two distinct chart patterns.

And as you may have guessed… one is bullish while the other is bearish.



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Ariel Focus Fund Q3 2016 Commentary

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Ariel Focus Fund commentary for the third quarter ended September 30, 2016.

H/T Dataroma

Also see

Equity markets shook off the malaise that took hold at the end of the second quarter-remember Brexit?-to post a strong quarter all around. Returns were especially good in domestic small caps and international stocks. While the S&P 500 Index advanced +3.85%; the Russell 2000 Index jumped +9.05%; and the MSCI EAFE Index rose +6.43%. The third quarter was the best period for ...

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Phil's Favorites

How One Billionaire Became a Gold Bug

Courtesy of Mish.

Hugo Salinas-Price, a hard currency advocate, and the founder of Mexico’s Elektra retail chain explains in the following guest post how he became a gold bug.

How I Became a Gold-Bug by Hugo Salinas Price

My father was Hugo Salinas Rocha -“Salinas” was his father’s surname, and “Rocha” was his mother’s surname; the custom of using both parents’ surnames is universal in Latin America. Father was a successful merchant in Mexico City, and in the 1930’s he ran a store in downtown Mexico City. The store belonged to a company founded by his father, Benjamin Salinas Westrup and to the partner he took into the business, his br...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

The Biggest Money Mistakes We Make—Decade by Decade (The Wall Street Journal)

Our relationship to money changes as we get older. So do the mistakes that we make with it.

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Slide Most Since July on Warm Midwest (Bloomberg)

U.S. natural gas futures slid the most since July, dragging shares of most major producers down as warmer-than-average weather in the Midwest prompted speculation that a mild winter will curtail demand for the heating fuel.


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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Sunday, 10 April 2016, 01:58:50 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: Pay attention : www.thefelderrepo...

Date Found: Monday, 11 April 2016, 03:52:28 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: RTT: Who owns the SP500?

Date Found: Monday, 11 April 2016, 03:53:00 PM...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of October 24th,2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Members' Corner

World Series 2016

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

The good news... Waiting since 1945, after 71 years, the Chicago Cubs have a chance to win their first WS since 1908.  The bad news... The Cubs face an Indian's team that has been waiting since 1948 to win a WS and last appeared in 1997.

CLE swept BOS, and took out TOR who had swept TEX, and has only lost ONE post season game.  That being Game 4 ALCS at TO, yet, during that series, no Indians starting pitcher made it through more than six innings. 

In fact, Trevor Bauer, only lasted two outs during his one start, leaving Merritt and the pen to bear the burden of over eight innings of baseball.  Mid range reliever Merritt notched a victory in that game with ERA 1.80; WHIP 0.60 with 5 IP. 

What does all that tell you? Oddly enough, without Carr...

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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...

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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.


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Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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PSW is more than just stock talk!


We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more! features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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