You guys gotta give it to phil–the voice of reason yesterday, last nite and this morning.
Phil - I'm with you just little bit longer than a month and you can not imagine how happy I am now, and not just because my P/L improved ( and I'm sure that it will be even better), but I found that the worst thing in trader's carrier is a LONELINESS. Here I found so many bright good guys, I looked for this service for years.
THANK YOU AND TAKE GOOD CARE OF YOURSELF BECAUSE I PLAN TO STAY HERE AND RIDE THIS CREASY MARKET WITH YOU FOR ANOTHER 20-30 YEARS
Thank you Nantucket. It is hard to be a complete beginner in the market with this complicated, fast moving, and very advanced group. Phil is the Great One, but the membership is absolutely amazing! Had I known this ahead I would probably log in as "awe struck" everyday.
Praising PSW for enlightenment is a bit akin to praising the Pope for being holy. I've been reading PSW for about two months now and have learned more about investing technique and the world in general than I've learned from the books and seminars I've paid for. Thanks for the enlightenment, the education, the guidance and the truth, which is not a commodity these days, but a virtue in short supply.
Don't expect to get rich quick here, but you can get easy 30 - 50 % per year, just by buying good stocks at discount (as we often discuss), selling monthly premiums of calls and puts.
Took profit on QQQ 57 Puts, bot 40 at $0.07, sold 20 for $0.15 and 20 for $0.32. Thank, Phil
Thanks, I managed to make 2k today so I am happy…and feel like I am finally getting it. New equipment and a quiet place to work helps a lot. I am happy for all the members that took your /NKD advice….that was fun I am sure! coke Take your vitamins…I don't know how you do all this! but, keep it up!
Speaking of the "Man Who Planted Trees", it really works. I bought BTU back in March at $49.87. I practically bought it at the tippy top. However, I soon afterward found this site, started learning Phil's methodology(and those in the strategy section) and began selling calls/puts regularly against my bad position. As of yesterday, I still own the original 100 shares, but have brought my basis down by over $11.00. Couldn't be happier, what started out as a really bad entry, I have managed to work down to a good basis. Had I not watched that video and learned your system, I would sold out of the position, and been kicking myself for making such a bad entry.
GMCR – Just bought back my Jan $90 callers on GMCR for a nice $10,000 gain. Thanks for the recommendation Phil! It was nice to cash in on a momo.
Happy holidays to all members of PSW. Just completed my 6th year and still my favorite site to read. Thank you all for your contributions and support especially you, Phil!
Thanks, after years of blood and blunders, I have reached a significant milestone – I don't lose money. Net net, I rarely have a losing week, market up, market down. And that I owe to you. Balanced positions. More premium sold than bought. Fundamental criteria applied to good companies, not momentum/ news headlines/ stock du jour/ triangle squeezies. But rather earnings, P/E, dividends, competitive position — the boring stuff that takes study, thought,….and patience. You have been a great teacher, and I have embarassed myself repeatedly day with how slowly I learn.
And it's a funny thing – if you don't lose, the gains start to pile up. The arithmetic is cruel to the downside, and becomes a gift in the other direction. And I'm in this for the long run, having made myself unemployable through a need for diversification. Moreover, what I've learned here has also elided into other areas, including real estate and ex-U.S. investment. Pretty cool. Have a great weekend.
Phil I have been telling you for a while how I feel like I am really understanding you now and thanking you. Well today may have been my most successful futures trading day since I began here and the week has been spectacular! It has just seemed so easy when you give us a range and I execute properly. Thanks once again for teaching me to fish. My portfolio gained over 10% this week which is just amazing.
The best play I made this year was PSW. Will renew my membership tonight. Looking for the same trading profit percentages next year, but will have an advantage from the compounding, and much better skills acquired from you and the many skilled PSW co-pilots. Thanks!
I have been here for 8 yrs, and find it the best service out there. There are more eyes on the market in this forum than anywhere, and opinions abound. So, relax, and let the group help you out.
Phil/BCS - Didn't realise they traded here. Should've known really. Thanks for the tip. managed to pick some up just before the close at a 15% discount to the UK closing price.
Happy Thanksgiving Phil and to your family and associates. Also to all of the other fellow citizens of Phil's Stock World. I am particularly happy and thankful that I clicked on your article in Seeking Alpha a number of years ago. That opened the gate to Phil's Stock World and "being the house". My wallet thanks you as does my peace of mind in trading options, stocks and rarely futures. Your liberal views opened up my views—being a boot strapper (pulled myself out of a poor background) I was a CONSERVATIVE—cynical of others who weren't as driven. Now, I am much less so; you have taught me more than how to make money and manage risk. So, again I give thanks to you and the others of PSW!!
CZR – well that was fun! Opened the play yesterday. As the arb premium was now almost all gone from the box spread today, I just decided to close it. The rundown, after all commissions: my net was $183.51 profit for an overnight trade tying up $2000 margin in an IRA account. That's a 9% overnight return (3200% annualized!) …And all that learning, too! Thanks PSW!
PHIL: The most important lesson I have learned is how to hedge using SQQQ, SDS and TZA. A big thanks.
The wonderful resource that Phil has created for us and nourished by its members is so powerful in what it can teach us going forward, but also what we can learn from the past. I never say it often enough, but Phil – thanks for all the work you do for us.
Maya, After years of being pretty good at picking stocks I still managed to lose almost as much as I made.All the reading Phil asked us to do as a new member (And everything else I can get my hands on lately) has revealed my Achilles Heal.Good stock picks do not necessarily make money. My problem was swinging for the fences. Since becoming a member Jan 1 this year and getting into to scaling into small trades I am amazed at the steady profit growth I have experienced already while not worrying about getting killed. And having fun doing it.. Phil, Thanks for the education, the help you give and the chance to learn more and get better. Also thanks to all the members who have answered the few questions I had when your not around.
Phil...The hundred grand portfolio updates are helpful...Fun ..and have been profitable...really like em... made some nice entries into USB, KEY today... and I better add those FAZ calls tomorrow... Really glad you put that up this morning...
On Optrader's section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers'. I've got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it's hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I've learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.
I have been a member of Phil's site for three years and counting, and my advice is that all investing takes time. There are o shortcuts, no secret way to riches. Same with Phil's site- you need time and patience to start benefitting fully from his advice. But it is often spot on and also very useful, especially to me as I try to keep a level head in this turbulent stock market environment.
I have followed a lot of Phil's picks over the last several years and made money using the exact option strategies he outlines. Of all the contributors on SA, he offers the most actual and ready to implement advice that has put money in my account. Many of us on SA actually are sad when we don't see Phil's postings for an extended period.
I have been a "silent" member for the past year, and am 1,000 hours into the 10K hours of training (The last week is worth at least 500 hours!). Made lots of mistakes and misunderstood quite a few of Phil's calls, … some actually made money when reversed. The chat (Including the politics) is very engaging (Many great minds with international coverage), and a great companion, while nursing a trade gone wrong, through the night. The webinars (despite technical difficulties) are extremely useful. Thanks for your coaching … it has made me a consistently profitable trader, with a better understanding of what I do not know.
Blessings, ALL: So we have completed two months of 2015. So far it has been a good ride with my PSW all short put portfolio showing a 15.73% gain with $83K in profits harvested in 2015.
Sold out my AAPL mar95 calls. Up over 100% today on them!
Its been a "perfect" month. Every stock I wrote calls against looks like it will be called away next week, every put I wrote will expire worthless. Thanks Phil, now I need some new buy/write candidates, or the new 100K portfolio….
Phil, I wanted to thank you for all of your teaching, advice, and guidance. Because of you I don't chase, don't worry about missed chances, and play things much more selectively. Yesterday's /ES and /TF and today /CL are my first futures plays of the month. Thanks Phil. (Out of /TF and /ES yesterday with a nice gain)
Hey I just did a nice options trade on LL for $800 (50%) gain thanks to this site, so… not bad for my first day! An hour of reading you guys and I already paid for two months subscription! Thank you!
EL - Estee Lauder Cos., Inc. – Options changing hands on Estee Lauder today look for shares in the maker of skincare products, makeup and fragrances to post attractive gains in the near term. Shares in the provider of high quality products sold under brand names that include Bobbi Brown, La Mer, and Clinique, are up slightly today, trading 0.25% higher on the session at $65.04 as of 11:55 a.m. ET. The stock has rallied approximately 8% since the start of 2013. Overall options volume on Estee Lauder is running at roughly three times the stock’s average daily volume as of midday in New York, with upwards of 3,200 contracts traded. Most of the action is in the May $65 strike call, where around 2,400 calls changed hands versus open interest of 805 contracts. It looks like most of the $65 calls were purchased this morning for an average premium of $2.35 apiece. The bullish strategy pays off at expiration if shares in EL rally another 3.5% over the current price of $65.04 to surpass the breakeven point at $67.35. Call buyers may be looking to benefit from a pop in Estee Lauder’s shares following the company’s third-quarter earnings report on May 2nd.
RFMD - RF Micro Devices, Inc. – Bearish activity in RF Micro Devices options this morning suggests one trader is bracing for shares in the name to potentially decline substantially during the next six weeks. The stock has moved higher in recent months, up more than 10% year to date. Shares today are down 0.60% at $5.10 as of 12:10 p.m. ET. May expiry put buying on RFMD may be looking for the stock to pullback following the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report later this month. Upwards of 6,600 puts were purchased at the May $5.0 strike at a premium of $0.35 each during the first hour of the trading session. The bearish stance on RF Micro Devices makes money at expiration if shares…
HK - Halcon Resources Corp. – Shares in energy company, Halcon Resources, rallied more than 6.0% to an intraday high of $7.74 on Tuesday morning, sparking heavy trading traffic in upside call options on the stock. Bursts of heavy call buying on the stock earlier in the session suggests one or more options traders are positioning for shares in Halcon to increase sharply in the near and long term. Traders looking for shares in HK to potentially rally to the highest level since September of 2012 by May expiration snapped up around 2,300 calls at the May $8.0 strike for an average premium of $0.36 each. The company is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings during the first full week in May. Bulls looked to October expiry calls, as well. It looks like traders picked up around 700 calls at the Oct. $9.0 strike for an average premium of $0.65 each, and purchased 1,100 call options at the Oct. $10 strike at an average premium of $0.47 apiece. Buyers of the October expiry $10 strike calls may profit at expiration in the event that Halcon’s shares surge 35% to top the average breakeven price $10.47. The most heavily traded contracts on HK on Tuesday morning were the Jan. 2015 $12 strike calls, which traded upwards of 22,000 times against open interest of 2,607 contracts. Trading in the $12 strike calls appears to be mixed, with the bulk of the contracts changing hands at $1.10 each. Strategists purchasing $12 strike calls on Halcon may profit at expiration in January of 2015 should shares in the energy company gain roughly 70% to trade above $13.10.
ZMH - Zimmer Holdings, Inc. – Options changing hands on the maker of knee and hip replacement products are looking for shares in Zimmer Holdings, Inc. to potentially decline during the next few weeks. Shares in ZMH are up 1.0% on Tuesday morning to stand at $73.45 as of 11:10 a.m. ET. The most actively traded contracts as measured by…
PAY - VeriFone Systems, Inc. – VeriFone’s lower-than-expected forecast for second-quarter earnings sent shares in the provider of electronic payment systems down nearly 40% to the lowest level since July 2010 on Thursday morning, and drove options volume on the stock to roughly four times its daily average by 11:35 a.m. ET. The total number of call and put options in play on VeriFone this morning at last check tops 24,400 contracts versus the stock’s average daily volume of around 6,100 contracts. Analysts at Deutsche Bank, Raymond James, Citi, JPMorgan and Piper Jaffray downgraded and/or lowered price targets on the stock today. Trading traffic in PAY call options suggests some contrarian traders are positioning for shares to potentially rebound somewhat in the near term. Options traders nibbling at upside calls picked up around 600 lots at the Mar. $22 strike for an average premium of $0.55 apiece in the early going. Call buyers may profit at expiration next month in the event that VeriFone shares jump 16% off today’s low of $19.43 to exceed the average breakeven price of $22.55. Around 360 calls were purchased at the higher Mar. $23 strike at an average premium of $0.29 apiece, as well. Meanwhile, hefty paper profits may be available for one strategist who appears to have sold around 500 Mar. $34 strike calls on Wednesday afternoon ahead of today’s selloff. Time and sales data indicates the call options were sold at a premium of $1.05 apiece yesterday, contracts that can now be bought back at just $0.05 each.
RFMD - RF Micro Devices, Inc. – Bearish options are changing hands on the semiconductor components manufacturer today, with shares in RF Micro Devices tumbling on a downgrade to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform’ at Raymond James on concerns of increased competition from Qualcomm, amid a down day for U.S. stocks across the board. Shares in RF Micro Devices are down more than 13% as of midday in New York to stand at $4.49. Traders positioning for…
BNNY - Annie’s, Inc. – Organic and natural food products provider, Annie’s, is taking it on the chin today after the company voluntarily recalled Annie’s Homegrown Frozen Pizza. The recall, initiated as a precautionary measure “due to the possible presence of fragments of flexible metal mesh caused by a faulty screen at a third-party flour mill”, according to a press release issued yesterday, spooked investors and sent shares in the name down nearly 14% after-hours to as low as $33.20. BNNY shares are currently off their lowest levelsbut remain firmly in negative territory, down 5.4% on the session to stand at $36.40 as of 11:10 a.m. ET on Wednesday morning. Options traders bracing for shares in Annie’s to potentially weaken further in the near term snapped up bearish puts on the stock. The Feb. $35 strike puts are the most actively traded contracts, with volume approaching 480 lots versus previously existing open interest of 32 contracts. Time and sales data indicates most of the puts were purchased for an average premium of $1.00 apiece. Put buyers may profit at February expiration in the event that BNNY shares decline 6.6% from the current price of $36.40 to breach the breakeven point on the downside at $34.00. The company is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings next week.
LSI - LSI Corp. – Upside call options on the maker of semiconductors and software are active this morning ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report after the closing bell. Shares in LSI Corp. are up 0.40% on the day at $7.33 as of 11:30 a.m. ET. The bulk of the volume in LSI options changed hands at the Feb. $7.0 strike, where upwards of 3,300 in-the-money calls traded against open interest of 1,512 contracts. It looks like most of the calls were purchased during the first few minutes of the trading session at an average premium of $0.60 apiece. Call buyers stand ready to profit at expiration should the price of the underlying climb 2.6% to top the average breakeven price of $7.60. The…
We mentioned Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) had broken out yesterday but its peers were still under resistance levels. That is no longer an issue as both TriQuint Semiconductor (TQNT) and RF Micro Devices (RFMD) received upgrades today and the computers are rushing in as technical resistance has been blasted through. This still remains one of my favorite spaces for the move into the smart phone culture, along with a backdoor play on the smart grid.
Unfortunately, the moves have been so dramatic the age old question of "chase or not to chase" is upon us. In this market it’s not a hard question – you chase everything.
TriQuint Semiconductor(TQNT) shares are on the rise this morning after Pacific Crest analyst Nathan Johnsen lifted his rating on the chip company’s stock to Outperform from Sector Perform, setting a price target of $7. Yesterday, the stock closed at $5.67.
“Recent meetings with TriQuint management have allowed us to more fully appreciate the potential opportunities for TriQuint’s networks business in 2010,” he writes. While the company’s handset business remains a risk given expected pricing pressures, he thinks that the networks segment could be an offset.
Johnsen upped his 2010 EPS estimate to 49 cents, from 39 cents; he’s now in line with the Street.
The analyst contends that with TriQuint trading at 11.6x his 2010 forecast, the stock is undervalued.
Anyone who has been involved in alternative geopolitical and economic analysis for a decent length of time understands that the establishment power structure thrives according to its ability to either exploit natural crises, or to engineer fabricated crises.
Google Trends data shows Health Care queries in the US is a reaching an all-time high in search engines (peaking at over 100k search volume). As health care changes are currently being discussed by lawmakers, Medicare coverage searches having increased over 250% within the last 7 days. Medicare Part B, which charges beneficiaries’ premium based on their income, has jumped the top search term in Google for Medicare related queries.
A year ago flows into ETFs were extremely low, actually the lowest in years, as many stock market indices were testing rising support off the 2009 lows. The crowd wasn’t adding money to ETFs as lows were taking place. In hindsight, this was a mistake by the majority. Below I look at ETF flows over the past few years with an inset chart of the S&P 500.
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
Nearly three months into this year, fund flows have surpassed mone...
It was no real surprise to see indices slow down in their recovery. Across the board doji mark a balance between buyers and sellers. The one index which bucked the trend a little was the Russell 2000. It staged a modest recovery which brought it back to former support turned resistance. However, technicals remain firmly bearish, and will stay this way even if there are additional gains.
The S&P closed on light volume with a doji below resistance. The narrow intraday trading range offers a low risk opportunity with a break and ...
Taking a "resp-shit" or "potty break" from "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo"... One of our favorite scenes from the 1998 cult classic The Big Lebowski, the ash can scene where Walter Subchak (John Goodman) eulogizes the departed Donnie (Steve Buscemi) with Jeffrey Lebowski (Jeff Bridges) looking on.
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
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Having rebounded rapidly from the ETF-decision disappointment, Bitcoin suffered another major setback overnight as Chinese regulators are circulating new guidelines that, if enacted, would require exchanges to verify the identity of clients and adhere to banking regulations.
A New York startup called Chainalysis estimated that roughly $2 billion of bitcoin moved out of China in 2016.
As The Wall Street Journal reports, the move to regulate bitcoin exchanges brings assurance that Chinese authorities will tolerate some level of trading, after months of uncertainty. A draft of the guidelines also indicates th...
ISPs will soon be able to sell your most private data without your consent.
As expected, Republicans in Congress have begun the process of rolling back the FCC's broadband privacy rules which prevent excessive surveillance. Arizona Republican Jeff Flake introduced a resolution to scrub the rules, using Congress' powers to invalidate recently-approved federal regulations. Reuters reports that the move has broad support, with 34 other names throwing their weight behind the res...
Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.
In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.
This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.
Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for
informational purposes only and is based upon information that is
considered to be reliable. However, neither PSW Investments, LLC d/b/a PhilStockWorld (PSW)
nor its affiliates
warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only intended at the moment of their issue as conditions quickly change. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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