Bye Bye Buy List!
by Phil - March 18th, 2010 6:15 pm
Oh, I have tried!
I have tried to be bullish, I have tried to get enthusiastic about this rally but I have been reviewing these picks for a few days and looking at the market, the charts, the sentiment, reading the news and studying the fundamentals and I’m OUT! Oh, I’ll be back, we’ll set up a new, aggressive $100K Portfolio next week for some fun shorter-terrm plays (still keeping the conservative one for the full year) to take full advantage of this insanity but it’s going to be mainly cash through the end of the month as I do not trust this rally one bit and it will be so nice to head into the easter holiday with lots of cash on the sidelines.
We hit a perfect entry on Feb 8th, in our last round, and the market is up almost 9% since that day and I’m not expecting another 9% in the next 6 weeks so it’s a very good time to take a break. We were able to roll and enjoy these trades since Christmas and we will be revisiting some, maybe even keeping a few but, on the whole, I want to do what I often counsel members to do, which is follow our simple two-step process to maximizing your profits in a market rally:
- Step 1) Take Money
- Step 2) Run
There - isn’t that simple? Keep in mind that we LOVE all of these stocks so we’ll be back in them if they go on sale and, perhaps, even if they don’t and the market looks stronger through April earnings. Meanwhile, keep in mind that these are 6-week profits so 20% is A LOT for generally conservative plays. Not much else to talk about - let’s just see how many of these suckers are worth keeping (noted in green):
AET (12/21 - $34.04, 1/9 - $32.70, 1/31 - $29.97, 3/18 - $33.24) They could not have done better for us, staying right in range and giving us 4 excellent sales but health care is passing this weekend and that’s too wild for us to stick with. Our last batch is right on target:
- Apr $33 calls sold for $2.40, now .40 - up 83%
- Apr $30 puts sold for $1.50, now .02 - up 99%
- 2012 $25/35 bull call spread at $5, now $5.40 - Keeper if we sell July $34 calls to cover at $2.35
- 2011 $22.50s at $9.10 - now $11.60 - up 27%
- Apr $27 puts sold for $1.75, now .01 - up…
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Vanda-Pharm Receives a Dose of Covered Call Selling
by Andrew Wilkinson - February 11th, 2010 4:13 pm
Today’s tickers: VNDA, PFE, S, ZION, GDX, PBR, BSX, AIG & PEP
VNDA – Vanda Pharmaceuticals, Inc. – The biopharmaceutical company, which specializes in the development of drug candidates for central nervous system disorders, attracted covered call selling in afternoon trading. It looks like one bullish individual purchased shares of the underlying stock in combination with the sale of 10,000 calls at the September $12.5 strike for an average premium of $1.13 per contract. Vanda’s shares – at the time of the transaction – were trading at $10.80 apiece. Thus, the investor effectively paid a net $9.67 per share because of the financing provided by the sale of the call options. The covered call strategy positions the investor to accumulate maximum potential profits of 29.25% if Vanda’s shares rally above $12.50 by expiration in September. This is because the short call stance provides an exit strategy for the trader which dictates gains of 29.25% on the appreciation in value of the underlying shares from the purchase price of $9.67 up to the $12.50 price at which the shares will be called from him – should the calls land in-the-money – at expiration in seven months. Vanda is scheduled to reveal its fourth-quarter earnings report before the opening bell on Tuesday February 16, 2010.
PFE – Pfizer, Inc. – Shares of the global pharmaceutical company commenced the current session in the red, but rallied in afternoon trading, rising 0.85% to $17.89 with forty-five minutes remaining in the trading day. Long-term optimistic trading patterns emerged in the January 2012 contract where one investor initiated a bullish risk reversal on the stock. It looks like the trader sold 5,000 puts at the January 2012 $17.5 strike for a premium of $3.20 each in order to purchase 5,000 calls at the same strike for $2.60 apiece. The investor pockets a net credit of $0.60 per contract on the reversal play, which he keeps in his piggy bank if Pfizer’s shares trade above $17.50 through January 2012 expiration. Additional profits amass to the upside as shares increase above the stated strike price of $17.50.
S – Sprint Nextel Corp. – Massive strangles plays on the communications company today indicate investors expect shares of the underlying stock to remain range-bound through expiration in May. Sprint’s shares fell significantly yesterday afternoon and continued lower by 2% to $3.28 today following disappointing fourth-quarter sales, which fell 6.7% to $7.87 billion. The third-largest U.S. wireless…
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JPMorgan-Bull Constructs Three-Legged Combo Play as Shares Rise
by Andrew Wilkinson - January 5th, 2010 4:31 pm
Today’s tickers: JPM, LVS, S, WFC, UAUA, NBR, PTEN, FIG, PCS, DAL & TPX
JPM – JPMorgan Chase & Co. – A three-legged combination play suggests one investor anticipates a significant rally in JPMorgan’s shares within the next few months. The stock is trading 2% higher this afternoon to $43.65. The trader utilized both calls and puts in the March contract in order to position for potential bullish movement in shares of the underlying. The investor sold 15,000 puts at the March 40 strike for an average premium of 1.18 apiece to partially offset the cost of buying a call spread. The call spread involved the purchase of 15,000 calls at the now in-the-money March 43 strike for an average premium of 2.58 each, marked against the sale of 15,000 calls at the higher March 47 strike for 90 cents premium apiece. The net cost of the three-legged strategy amounts to 90 cents per contract. Maximum potential profits of 3.50 per contract – a grand total of $5.25 million – are available to the investor if JPM’s shares rally through $47.00 by expiration day. Profits amass above the breakeven price of $43.50. The short put stance at the March 40 strike implies the investor is willing to have shares put to him at $40.00 apiece if the put options land in-the-money.
LVS – Las Vegas Sands Corp. – Reports of a large 48% increase in December revenue at Sands China – the Macau unit of Las Vegas Sands Corp. – pushed shares of LVS up 9.5% to $18.21 today. Option bulls, hoping good fortune and accurate foresight are on their side looked to the February contract to initiate plain-vanilla call buying strategies. The now in-the-money February 18 strike had roughly 2,700 calls picked up for an average premium of 1.29 apiece. The higher February 19 strike was the hot spot for bulls looking to bet on an LVS rally. Out of the 19,500 calls traded at that strike, more than 12,200 contracts were purchased for about one dollar per contract. Call options exchanged at the February 19 strike vastly outnumber previously existing open interest at that strike of just 2,725 lots. The higher February 20 strike received bullish interest as well, with about 2,000 contracts coveted by traders for an average premium of 66 cents each. As of 3:15 pm (EDT), investors traded just under 127,000 option contracts of LVS, which represents approximately 21%…
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Savient-Bull Buys Ratio Call Spread
by Andrew Wilkinson - December 18th, 2009 4:13 pm
Today’s tickers: SVNT, JBLU, ROST, RVSN, MRVL, RYL, ARIA, WLP, S, BCR & ORCL
SVNT - Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc. – A ratio call spread implemented on biopharmaceutical company, Savient Pharmaceuticals, this afternoon indicates shares may shift higher by expiration in January 2010. SVNT’s shares increased 1% during the session to stand at $12.80. The spread involved the purchase of 2,400 calls at the in-the-money January 12.5 strike for an average premium of 1.34 apiece, marked against the sale of 4,800 calls at the higher January 14 strike for 62 pennies each. The net cost of the trade amounts to just 10 cents per contract. The investor responsible for the bullish play stands ready to accrue maximum potential profits of 1.40 per contract if the stock jumps to $14.00 by expiration. The increase in demand for option contracts on the stock boosted Savient’s option implied volatility reading 15% during the trading day from an opening reading of 75.22% to an intraday high of 86.56%.
JBLU - JetBlue Airways Corp. – Investors initiated bullish stances on JetBlue this afternoon despite the 2% decline in value of the underlying shares during the trading session to $5.48. Fresh call positions were taken in the March and June contracts by traders preparing for a JBLU-rally. A chunk of 5,000 calls were purchased at the March 6.0 strike for a premium of 40 cents per contract. The investor responsible for the transaction breaks even if shares of the airline increase 17% over the current price to $6.40 by March’s expiration. Option traders purchased at least 1,700 calls at the June 6.0 strike for 65 cents premium apiece. Profits accumulate if and when JBLU’s shares rise 21.5% to surpass the breakeven point at $6.65. The increase in investor demand for option contracts on the stock lifted option implied volatility 13.57% to an intraday high of 55.55%.
ROST - Ross Stores, Inc. – The second-largest off-price retailer of brand-name apparel and home accessories in the U.S. appeared on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner in late-afternoon trading. One investor established a ratio put spread on the stock in the February 2010 contract. Shares are down 1% to $43.88 with approximately one hour remaining in the trading session. The option trader purchased 2,000 puts at the in-the-money February 45 strike for 2.60 apiece, and sold 4,000 puts at the lower February 42.5 strike for 1.40 each. The investor receives a net credit of 20…
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Iron-Ore Bull Excavates Massive Credit Spread on Vale S.A.
by Andrew Wilkinson - December 8th, 2009 4:08 pm
Today’s tickers: VALE, ANF, ARIA, GCI, S, KR, SYY, AZO, TLB & RAI
VALE - Vale S.A. – Option volume on iron-ore producer, Vale, exploded this afternoon after one investor exchanged 102,200 puts in the June 2010 contract. The put activity actually implies bullish sentiment on Vale despite the 3% decline in shares this afternoon to $27.36. It appears the contrarian trader sold 51,100 in-the-money puts at the June 29 strike for a premium of 4.45 each, and purchased 51,100 puts at the lower June 23 strike for 1.75 apiece. The iron-bull receives a net credit of 2.70 per contract on the trade, which he keeps if VALE’s shares rally above $29.00 by expiration in June. Shares closed at $29.40 just last week on December 2, 2009. The investor is exposed to losses to the downside if shares decline through the breakeven price of $26.30. Maximum potential losses of 3.30 per contract accumulate for the trader if the stock sinks 16% from the current price to $23.00 by June’s expiration day.
ANF - Abercrombie & Fitch Co. – A number of large-volume put transactions on fashion retail store operator, Abercrombie & Fitch, indicates investor pessimism on the stock through expiration in January 2010. Abercrombie’s shares slipped 1.5% during afternoon trading to $35.11. Perhaps bearish option traders were dismayed by the firm’s weaker-than-expected November sales report. ANF posted a 17% decline in same-store sales for the month, which was far worse than the 9.3% decline anticipated by analysts. It appears one investor initiated a four-legged combination play aimed at protecting against near-term declines in the value of ANF shares. First the investor established a ratio put spread by purchasing 15,000 puts at the January 35 strike for 2.10 apiece, marked against the sale of 30,000 puts at the lower January 32 strike for 95 cents each. The net cost of the ratio spread amounts to 20 cents per contract. Next, the trader effectively created an uneven butterfly spread by rolling a previously established put position in the January 2010 contract up to a higher strike price. It seems the trader originally purchased 15,000 puts at the January 29 strike for roughly 2.50 apiece on October 2, 2009. Today the individual took a loss on that position by selling the puts for 40 cents apiece to buy the same number of put options at the higher January 31 strike for 80 cents premium. The put trades…
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Gold Mminers ETF Attracts Bullish Option Plays
by Andrew Wilkinson - November 10th, 2009 5:08 pm
Today’s tickers: GDX, CF, S, XHB, PCLN, XLF, CX, CAR, BZH, CRI & ERTS
GDX - Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF – Shares of the gold ETF that invests in shares of precious metals mining companies are up 0.5% to $49.53 with one hour remaining in the trading session. Option implied volatility has come down from 54% to 46% recently as gold’s price has surged. Nearer-term investors sought downside protection on the fund, whereas long-term traders initiated bullish plays. Investors hoping to lock in gains experienced during the recent run-up in the price of gold purchased 4,000 puts at the January 2010 47 strike for 3.05 apiece. Further along, at the March 2010 44 strike, another 6,000 puts were picked up for an average premium of 3.10 per contract. Finally, long-term bullishness took the form of a call spread in the January 2011 contract. It appears one investor purchased about 5,000 calls at the January 50 strike for an average of 9.52 each, marked against the sale of the same number of calls at the higher January 55 strike for 7.55 each. The net cost of the optimistic play amounts to 1.97 per contract. The trader stands to accrue maximum potential profits of 3.03 each if shares of GDX rally 11% over the current price to $55.00 by expiration in January 2011.
CF - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. – Bearish option plays appeared on the manufacturer of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products today after the firm rejected rival Agrium Inc.’s increased takeover offer of $4.52 billion. Shares of CF are currently trading 4% lower to $77.20. Investors purchased put options at the now in-the-money December 80 strike for an average premium of 6.70 apiece. Perhaps put-buyers are protecting long stock positions. Otherwise, they are hoping to accrue profits if shares of CF decline through the effective breakeven price of $73.30. Another trader unraveled a previously established bullish play in the January 2010 contract. The investor originally placed an extremely bullish 8,500-lot call spread at the January 90/100 strikes. However, the trader abandoned bullish sentiment today by closing out the spread. Option implied volatility on CF jumped 7.5% over Monday’s closing value of 52.9% to reach an intraday high of 55.9%.
S - Sprint Nextel Corp. – Shares of the wireless communications company surrendered a portion of gains experienced during yesterday’s 20% rally to an intraday high of $3.43. The stock rebounded due to news that Clearwire…
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Brazilian Stocks Capture Option Traders’ Imagination
by Andrew Wilkinson - October 15th, 2009 2:25 am
Today’s tickers: VALE, EWZ, NYX, PFE, HOG, XRT, S & ROVI
VALE - Vale S.A. – Rio de Janeiro-based mining company, Vale S.A., experienced a 6.25% surge in shares today to $26.57. Perhaps the jump in shares is due to unconfirmed news the company plans to invest $5.8 billion to expand projects in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. In options-land one investor took a bullish stance by selling puts to buy calls. It appears the risk reversal involved the sale of 4,000 puts at the November 23 strike for 45 cents apiece, spread against the purchase of 4,000 calls at the higher November 28 strike for 38 cents premium each. The investor receives a net credit of 7 pennies per contract on the trade. He will retain the full credit as long as shares of VALE remain higher than $23.00 through expiration day. To add to profits shares must climb 5% higher to surpass the breakeven price of $28.00.
EWZ - iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF – Bullish call action in the March contract today certainly jives with the 3.25% rally in shares of the exchange-traded fund to $75.18. An investor hoping for further upward movement in the price of EWZ shares enacted a call spread. The trader bought 2,500 calls at the now in-the-money March 73 strike for an average premium of 7.00 each, and simultaneously sold 2,500 calls at the higher March 78 strike for 4.54 apiece. The net cost of the bullish play amounts to 2.46 per contract. Thus, the investor stands to accumulate maximum potential profits of 2.54 if shares rise to $78.00 by expiration in March. Profits start to accumulate if shares break through $75.46, which is just 28 cents above the current price per share. But, the stock must climb 4% to $78.00 for the investor to revel in maximum available profits of $635,000.
NYX - NYSE Euronext, Inc. – Bullish call buying this afternoon pushed New York Stock Exchange operator, NYSE Euronext, onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner. Shares of NYX are currently trading 5% higher to stand at $29.81. Investors expecting continued upward movement in the stock scooped up call options in the November contract. The November 30 strike had 2,100 calls purchased for an average premium of 1.13 each, while the November 31 strike had 1,200 calls coveted for 82 cents premium apiece. Finally, super-bullish traders looked to the higher November 33…
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Plum Creek Options Active
by Andrew Wilkinson - October 9th, 2009 5:06 pm
Today’s tickers: PCL, TBT, GE, OXY, C, ODP, RMBS & S
PCL - Plum Creek Timber – It appears that an investor sold a 15,000 lots strangle on paper-manufacturer, Plum Creek using February options. The implied volatility reading on the share price of 38% remains above the 31% on the share price performance. Call premium at the 35 strike was sold at 1.15 and pushed it lower by 4% on the day while the 10% decline in put premium was accounted for by simultaneous selling of puts at the 25 strike price. Together the premium of 2.05 implies that this investor expects that shares in Plum Creek remain hemmed between $37.05 and $22.95 during the next five months. Shares are 0.4% higher today at $31.32. There is also action at the same expiration 30 series where 5,000 calls traded close to a 3.40 asking price while puts traded on identical volume at a mid-market premium of 2.63. This is more opaque than the strangle and could represent a reversal in which a Plum Creek bull is selling puts to purchase calls. However, it could also be a sold strangle in a similar vane to the above. The currently implied trading range in this case would be between $23.97 to $36.03.
TBT – ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF – With today’s comments from Fed chairman Bernanke sending bond prices spiraling, investors have targeted call options on the inverse exchange traded fund, TBT, to target a continuation in the move. Likely investors expect further normalization in the yield curve as the discussion on a tighter policy stance expands. As bond yields have fallen during the recent four months, the price of this ETF has slipped from near $60 per share to $42. Today its price stands at $46.14 for a 4.8% gain. Note that the fund focuses on the 20-year area of the yield curve and is double leveraged, which account for today’s sharp price movement. Investors targeted call options in expectation of a further move and used October calls up to the 49 strike to play that move. They also bought calls at the 46 through 50 strike prices.
GE – General Electric – Option sellers chose to write call premium at the December contract using the 21 strike price today. We can see around 7,000 calls sold at premiums between 9-11 cents as shares in the conglomerate slip by 0.6% to stand at $16.13…
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Volatility Up at Dow Chemical as Investors Feast on Options
by Andrew Wilkinson - September 14th, 2009 5:51 pm
Today’s tickers: DOW, XLF, FMCN, MAR, CAT, S & MOT
DOW - The manufacturer of chemicals, plastic materials, and other specialized products jumped onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon amid a more than 7% rally in shares to $25.30. Option traders displayed bullish tendencies as investors exchanged nearly two call options to each put traded on the stock. The near-term September contract had traders buying up both calls and puts. Bullish call buying occurred at the now in-the-money September 25 strike where more than 6,100 calls were picked up for an average premium of 33 cents each. More optimistic individuals purchased some 1,100 calls at the higher September 26 strike for 27 cents premium. Investors also locked in gains by buying 4,300 puts at the September 24 strike for 25 cents each. An additional chunk of 5,600 puts were scooped up at the higher September 25 strike for 56 cents apiece. Investors purchasing the puts probably hold long positions in the underlying stock. Finally, the October 26 strike was also targeted by bullish traders who bought about 2,000 calls for 85 cents per contract. The intraday shift in option implied volatility on DOW suggests investors are anticipating greater fluctuation in the price of the underlying shares. Volatility increased 12% during the session, rising up to a high of 51.5% from an intraday low of 46%. – The Dow Chemical Co. –
XLF - A large-volume bearish reversal caught our eye on the financials exchange-traded fund as shares of the underlying spent the better part of the trading session in the red. However, the XLF has recovered this afternoon to stand more than 0.5% higher at $14.63. The massive options reversal enacted in the October contract suggests at least one trader does not expect to see the fund climb much higher over the next five weeks. The transaction involved the sale of 35,000 calls at the October 15 strike for 39 cents apiece spread against the purchase of 35,000 puts at the lower October 14 strike for 49 cents per contract. The net cost of getting long the puts amounts to just 10 pennies each. It is likely the investor responsible for the spread holds a long position in the underlying stock. If this is indeed the case, he has established downside protection that would kick in if shares of the XLF fell beneath the breakeven point at $13.90…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(