Oxen (directly) and Wilkinson (indirectly) are making me a great day trader! Props to Andrew for another little nugget last night: HIG. $20 Dec calls paid 6% quickly this morning. And helloooo STJ - a few days, but nice pick nonetheless - esp with early cover premium.
Kudos on the POT puts! I studied the charts last night and you couldn't have hit the inflection points more perfectly. Since there are often many head fakes in the charts, that was very well done. I know they can't all work this well, but that was an extra unexpected bonus yesterday.
Phil- great call in oil this morning! Now that Im no longer studying and am back in the real world I can only check this in the morning, at lunch, and after work. Anyways, you've been killing it on oil ( even more than you usually do) so I made a point to wake up extra early and made .25 off your ‘buy oil if you're brave'recommendation. It's nice to wake up and scalp 100+ bucks before I even start my real job. You lay those golden eggs everyday Phil! I thank you for that!
My watch list looks like a grid where Phil's recommendations went UP and everything else went DOWN! It looked something like an ad for Philstockworld. I am half in cash, followed the recommendations (AAPL TASR YHOO) on a 20K portfolio and still up 1% for the day. Thanks!
Phil I must say that it was really nice to have a portfolio that was looking very stable in the face of a rough day for the markets. I ended the day up 0.3% which includes another successful day of futures trading. So with a portfolio of mostly cash, a few of our faves like Apple and LL, JO, TOL, DIS, etc., along with a couple of hedges that paid off nicely today, and my futures trades, I never had to break a sweat during that madhouse today. Yes, by George (or Phil), I may be learning this system!
Well that was a fun day. Cashed out my GS 140 calls for about 35% profit and my AAPL calls for 38% gain. Not bad for 40 minutes of work. Back to 85% cash.
Phil – just wanted to say a sincere thank you for teaching me how to offset, hedge, roll, and not panic. My account is up 10% in the last two weeks, and far from panic, this is becoming great fun. Thanks again,
I picked up one of your recommended Gold plays, the July ABX 30s and sold the Feb 35s, which are now mostly intrinsic value. Is it time to roll these to the March 37.50s, or should I wait this spike out?
I am an investor, not a trader. The information at Phil's World is top-notch and always relevant. It is great to see your website thriving.
Phil - It is nice being more discipline with my trading. Generally, I am out earlier than most, but my results, overall, are much better than they were when I was trying to squeeze 80 cups of lemonade out of one lemon! On the other side, I am learning the value of rolling and turning losses into non-losses or small gains. I so appreciate the time you have spent with me and others who have benefited greatly from your knowledge. Thank you!
I have been a "silent" member for the past year, and am 1,000 hours into the 10K hours of training (The last week is worth at least 500 hours!). Made lots of mistakes and misunderstood quite a few of Phil's calls, … some actually made money when reversed. The chat (Including the politics) is very engaging (Many great minds with international coverage), and a great companion, while nursing a trade gone wrong, through the night. The webinars (despite technical difficulties) are extremely useful. Thanks for your coaching … it has made me a consistently profitable trader, with a better understanding of what I do not know.
Phil- I am a former portfolio manager and now retired. I have been following you for about six months and I now know why you have so many followers you are very insightful and knowledgeable.
Phil: well, often you say, just for FUN, great comment, TXS,
closed 2 SKF positions, one with 10 % , the other with 6 % gain,
I am struck by several things over the last few days. First is how level-headed we all are as Greece and China develop. Second is how very helpful it is to see the different trading styles we have, partly because of personal preference and partly because of different stages of development and education. It's very helpful. Well-done, Phil, to have developed this community.
Phil - Moved today to send kudos. You're in my top 5 to see/read daily. I do not trade...
but as former econ-finance adjunct faculty near Stanford U. I give you lots of attaboys....
and provide your links to many to spread some understanding of the mess we are in. Best to you and yours,
Phil - Thanks for the welcoming gift of the POT at a buck
Just paid for this month and my membership is not even 24 hours old!
looking forward to many more - bk
I did the same thing via your logic (sold puts that is). I glanced one time and they were already up 15% which is considered a good return for an overnight hold in most circles. This is PSW though and to us it's just another day…
/NKD- Kownichiwa Cowboy!! One week of patience and scaling in and out pays off. This is a testament to Phil's fundamental analysis with the PSW technique. Thanks Phil.
Phil, thanks for the call on the SKF puts earlier, I'm riding that horsie downhill right now, giddyup!
Oil – thanks Phil,
got in late at 0.53 on the 38p today, set a sell for 0.75 and took the dog for a walk – 70% gain and more than enough $$ to buy dog food. TZA Aug 35/40 BCS – closed out for a 100% gain in under a month – thanks again for introducing me to these trades.
Phil/Eric/Cwan/Matt/Cap/etc.. - I've learned so much from all of you and want to thank you. I'm up 23% this month thanks to all of your advice - Thanks, guys!
Phil: I cleaned up today. A rather stark contrast to my untutored performance April/May 2009, after I had written to you to explain how wrong-headed your bearishness was. Many thanks.
I ran into someone once who played on the Bulls with Jordan for quite a few years. He was asked what he had learned from playing with MJ for so long. He smiled and said "Give him the ball."
Phil, I just wanted to say thanks for being there. The world needs more of you. Your site continues to positively change my life daily.
Thanks for the heads up on the comming sell off on friday, and the bs job yesterday. your our guiding light!
I have definitely learned to take smaller wins early and be happy with that. Lately, I've aimed for $250 profit per day. Doing that daily/weekly x 48 weeks (assuming I take some time off) works out to 60k per year. That's a lot of money!! $250 moves happen all the time if you just wait for them.
Thanks, Phil!!! I just crushed today with it with silver (SLV) calls today, thanks to your persistent reminders of how ridiculously cheap it has become, and watching my TSLA this week $240 puts dissolve into chump change added an extra note of amusement.
Thanks to your teaching and guidance, I was able to make a killing on my /TF shorts. I averaged into 12 shorts at 1252 and got out of 6 at 1242 and 6 more at 1235. Last week I did the same with /CL, though I got out too early and left $2 on the table. Thank you!
Phil/USO Adjustment~~ Thanks for showing us the make it even (maybe even profitable) tricks for 'fixing' a losing position. I would have never known the trick if you didn't explain it. The option adjustment techniques are very helpful. Trading stocks would probably never offer that kind of flexibilities! Thanks!
Phil – great calls this past week, esp. friday and monday. in the old days I would have let Prechter et al scare me into trimming my longs and going short at just the wrong time. your feel for the markets is Tiger-esque. CHK, HOV, BX, TLT and XLF are big winners for me today. My biggest up day in a long time. Thanks!
I have followed a lot of Phil's picks over the last several years and made money using the exact option strategies he outlines. Of all the contributors on SA, he offers the most actual and ready to implement advice that has put money in my account. Many of us on SA actually are sad when we don't see Phil's postings for an extended period.
SFLY - Shutterfly, Inc. – Options volume on Shutterfly jumped this morning and shares in the online photo-sharing services provider jumped nearly 20% to a new 52-week high of $40.20 after the company posted higher-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue and forecast annual sales above average analyst expectations. Traders positioning for shares in Shutterfly to extend gains in the near term snapped up February expiry calls on the stock today. Upwards of 1,100 calls have changed hands at both the Feb. $40 and $42.5 striking prices as of 11:40 a.m. ET, and it looks like much of the volume was purchased in the early going at average premiums of $0.96 and $0.39 apiece, respectively. Call buyers may profit at expiration next week if SFLY’s shares increase another 1.9% and 6.7% to exceed average breakeven prices of $40.96 and $42.89. Bullish positions established ahead of Shutterfly’s fourth-quarter earnings report fetched hefty overnight paper profits forsome options players today. Traders who yesterday purchased around 300 calls at the Feb. $32.5 strike for an average premium of $1.88 each, today find these contracts have quadrupled in value, changing hands at a premium of $7.60 apiece, just before midday in New York. Roughly 250 calls were picked up at the Feb. $37.5 strike on Tuesday for an average premium of $0.37 per contract. Traders long the $37.5 strike call options today hold contracts that have increased eight-fold overnight to $3.10 each as of last check on Wednesday morning at 11:50 a.m. ET. Overall options volume on Shutterfly is approaching 10,600 contracts, a big jump versus the stock’s average daily options volume of around 1,140 contracts.
SU - Suncor, Inc. – Shares in Suncor, the largest Canadian energy company by market value, dropped 5.7% today to $32.55 after the company posted a first quarter loss on Tuesday after the close. Options volume on Suncor today is nearly five times greater than average, with more than 25,500 contracts in play on the stock versus average daily options volume of 5,670 contracts. The bulk of the volume is changing hands…
XLP - Consumer Stapes Select Sector SPDR Fund – Options activity on the Consumer Staples SPDR in the first 10 minutes of the session suggests one strategist is long-term bullish on shares in some of the largest and most well-known U.S. companies. Shares in the XLP are up 1.0% today at $34.11, just off the ETF’s record high of $34.42, as U.S. equities move broadly higher. The XLP’s top 10 holdings, which make up nearly 70% of the fund, include Dow heavyweights the likes of Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola and Wal-Mart Stores. Coca-Cola, the fund’s second-largest holding, is up nearly 3.0% this afternoon after the Company reported better-than-expected first-quarter results. The long-dated options position established on the ETF this morning stands to benefit from substantial bullish movement in the price of the underlying over the next year and eight months to expiration. It looks like the trader responsible for the transaction purchased a block of 10,000 calls at the Jan. 2014 $37 strike for a premium of $0.89 apiece. Profits are available on the position at expiration if shares in the XLP climb 11.0% to top a new record high of $37.89. A couple of hours into the trading day the same-strike call expiring in January 2013 was purchased 26,600 times at a premium of $0.23 each.
WMT - Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – The value of a sizable bullish bet initiated in Wal-Mart call options yesterday ballooned overnight, as shares in the retailer extend their run to the upside for a second straight day. Shares in WMT are currently up 2.05% at $61.81 as of 11:35 a.m. in New York, the highest since mid-February, on positive U.S. same-store sales data. On Monday, WMT popped up on our market scanners after a large…
JOY - Joy Global, Inc. – Shares in mining equipment maker, Joy Global, rallied as much as 3.2% at the start of the session to $75.18, but the stock has since slipped into negative territory, trading down 0.50% to stand at $72.51 as of 12:50 p.m. in New York. Call buying on JOY this morning indicates traders are gearing up for shares in the Milwaukee, Wisconsin-based Company to increase in the near term. Weekly calls and front month calls saw the most action today before the stock surrendered gains to join in on the broad market decline. In-the-money $70 strike weekly calls changed hands 1,000 times for an average premium of $3.89 apiece, and appear to have been purchased by traders expecting shares to top $73.89 at expiration. Call buyers also targeted the $75 and $77.5 strike weekly options, snapping up more than 400 lots at each strike at average premiums of $1.66 and $0.32 each, respectively. Front month calls were most active at the April $80 strike, where more than 4,650 contracts traded against open interest of 3,935 positions. It looks like the majority of the contracts were purchased for an average premium of $0.47 apiece, thus positioning buyers to make money should Joy Global’s shares jump 11.0% to exceed the average breakeven price of $80.47 at expiration next week.
SFLY - Shutterfly, Inc. – The selloff in shares of Shutterfly continued for a second-straight day on news Facebook will pay roughly $1 billion to buy Instagram’s photo-sharing application. SFLY’s shares are 4.4% lower today to stand at $26.98, but have lost 60.0% of their value in the past 52 weeks since reaching an all-time high of $66.70 back on April 28, 2011. Some traders appear to be positioning for the…
UAL - United Continental Holdings, Inc. – The airline operator’s shares rose 4.3% this morning to an intraday high of $23.76, rebounding 9.7% off of its lowest point of the week at $21.65, but still trading substantially lower than last week’s closing price of $27.02. Shares relinquished some of the earlier gains this afternoon to stand 1.65% higher on the session at $23.16 as of 12:15pm in New York. At least one options strategist is positioning for UAL’s shares to continue recovering in the next couple of months. It looks like the investor employed April contract ratio call spreads to prepare for a sizable, albeit limited, correction higher by expiration day. The trader appears to have purchased approximately 3,000 in-the-money calls at the April $22 strike for an average premium of $2.49 apiece, and sold roughly 6,000 calls up at the April $27 strike for an average premium of $0.52 each. The net cost of the transaction amounts to an average of $1.45 per contract, and positions the trader to profit in the event that UAL’s shares rally 1.25% over the current price of $23.16 to surpass the average breakeven point on the upside at $23.45 by April expiration. Maximum potential profits of $3.55 per contract are available to the trader should shares in United Continental Holdings jump 16.6% to settle at $27.00 at expiration in a couple of months. The sale of twice as many higher-strike call options expose the investor to losses should the stock fly higher than he expects within the time remaining to expiration. Profits give way to losses on this strategy if shares in UAL jump 31.9% to exceed the upper breakeven price of $30.55 by April expiration day. The call options transacted in the ratio spreads represent opening positions given the minimal levels of open interest observed at either strike price.…
Women in the workforce are constantly bombarded by rhetoric intended to make us feel less appreciated than our male colleagues. Politicians and Hollywood celebrities - many of whom have never worked one day in a traditional office setting - seem to take great pleasure in telling females that we are victims of the alleged gender wage gap.
Asserting that today’s working women make only 78 cents for every dollar earned by a man, high profi...
By Sovereign Man. Originally published at ValueWalk.
In a poll conducted a few days ago by NBC News / Wall Street Journal, a record 57% of Americans responded that they want MORE government in their lives, and that the government should be doing more to solve people’s problems.
That’s the highest percentage since they started asking this question in 1995.
In fact, 57% is nearly double what people responded in the mid-90s.
While global risk appetite returned on Monday on the heels of France’s presidential election, shares in China bucked the trend, dropping the most in three months. The Shanghai Composite Index has lost almost 5 percent since its mid-April peak, worse than all other national benchmarks in the world.
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
Hello fellow PSW-ers, it'sbiodieselchris here. I've been interested in cryptocurrencies (informally, "cryptos" or "coins") since 2011 when I first heard about Bitcoin, Since that time I've become somewhat of a subject matter expert and personal investor in Bitcoin and other alternative cryptocurrencies ("altcoins"). I have even started one of my own!
I've been posting comments about cryptos in Phil's daily post from time to time. Recently, Phil and I got on a call and he asked if I would like to run a blog on his site specifically about cryptos, which I thought was a great idea. My goal would be to educate members on what I know about how coins work, how I research coins (what I find interesting), how exactly one can invest (buy, hold, and sell) coins and a basic, easy-to-follow general how-to on all things crypto. In addition, other members have expressed an interest in learning more directly...
Forgetting the traditional market news, as we began last week both the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were at critical support. A rally Monday showed those support levels held, giving bulls breathing room. We’ll discuss this more below after we get through the more fundamental news items that transpired. Traders seemed to breath easier on Monday seeing no escalation with North Korea and came in ready for a bit of a relief rally.
The lack of a nuclear test from North Korea over the weekend did much to reverse defensive positions adopted by traders heading into the weekend, said Ian Winer, director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities.
It was a very heavy week of S&P 500 type earnings with banks leading the way in the first half of the week. Then a series of large sized companies ac...
Corporate America is set to unleash its biggest profit-reporting fest in at least a decade next week, with more than 190 members of the S&P 500 index .SPX delivering quarterly scorecards, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices data.
I was asked by my local investment club to do a presentation on "how to buy a stock?" As I pondered the question, I began by noting all the elements that I monitor regularly and which come in to play as part of my decision process. As the group is comprised novices to experts, I tried to gear my discussion to cover both basics and more advanced concepts.
Four Part Discussion
Macro Economic Indicators
1. Macro Economic Indicators
We'll start with reviewing some basic concepts and measurements that have direct effects on the stock market.
A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
PSW Members....it has been a while since my last post, but since many have all been on the board following the chat, it is time for a scientific lesson in a few of the companies we are long. In addition, another revolution is coming in the medical field, and it will be touched upon as well.
CAR-T - stands for Chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and the T is for T-cell.
From the picture above, T-cells are one cell type of our immune system that fight off infection as well as they are one player at keeping rogue cells from becoming cancerous. Unfortunately, cancer somehow evades the immune system and so it begins.
CAR-T came along in the late1980s via a brilliant scientist, Zelig Eshhar...
Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.
In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.
This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.
Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for
informational purposes only and is based upon information that is
considered to be reliable. However, neither PSW Investments, LLC d/b/a PhilStockWorld (PSW)
nor its affiliates
warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only intended at the moment of their issue as conditions quickly change. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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