Posts Tagged ‘Toby Connor’

On The Brink Of An Asset Explosion, II

Guest Post: On The Brink Of An Asset Explosion, II

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Submitted by Toby O’Conner of GoldScents

Let me start off by saying the market should be correcting.  Sentiment has reached ridiculous bullish extremes, the kind of extremes that led to the January /February correction. 

That correction separated the second leg of the bull from the third.  But let’s face it, sentiment has been in this condition for several weeks now and the best we could muster was a minor correction of 30 points on the news the SEC was filing charges against Goldman Sachs for fraud.

We’ve had three opportunities to “sell the news” with the April jobs report and recently with INTC and AAPL earnings.  None of them have panned out.  The market could use the Greek excuse as a downside catalyst, the same as it did in January.  And now Greek short term bonds are tanking as the EU waffles about writing that check in front of the German elections in May.

All in all it boils down to the market has had every chance to correct and it has failed to do so.

Last month I speculated that we were On the Brink of an Asset Explosion. Well, we may not be on the brink anymore. We may very well be moving into the heart of the explosion right now.

We’ve just seen one of the most powerful rallies out of a corrective low in many years. Until Friday the market had held above the 10 day moving average 42 days in a row. That’s the longest stretch in over 10 years. Since the February 5th low the market has risen 71% of the time. That’s the kind of stuff parabolic blow off tops are made of.

I don’t really think we are in a parabolic blow off top just yet. What I do think is that we may have entered a runaway move similar to the August 06 to February 07 time frame.

During a runaway move, corrections tend to be uniform in both magnitude and duration.  During the 06/07 rally all corrections fell in a range of about 20-35 points.

So far the rally out of the February bottom has followed this script. The February corrective move dropped 25 points in 4 days and the recent pullback on the Goldman news dropped 30 points in…
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Zero Hedge

What It Really Takes For a US-Iran Deal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Pepe Escobar, Op-Ed via RT.com,

Forget the mad spinning. Here it is, in a nutshell, what it really takes for Iran and the P5+1 to clinch a game-changing nuclear deal before the new July 7 deadline.

Iran and the P5+1 agreed in Lausanne on a “comprehensive plan of action,” taking into account delicate constitutional considerations in both the US and Iran. A crucial part of the plan is the mechanism to get rid of sanctions. Lausanne – and now Vienna – is not a treaty; it’s an action plan. There will be a declaration when a deal is reached. But there won’t be a signing ceremony.

...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls prepare for a new buying opportunity, courtesy of Greece

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Of course, all eyes have been on Greece in an ongoing saga that, although critical to the Greeks, is mostly just an annoying distraction for global investors -- partly because it has been going on for so many years, with the proverbial can of inevitability continually being kicked down the road, and partly because there can be no winners in this intractable situation. Predictably, the electorate chose to follow the advice of the communists that they elected and reject the rigid bailout offer, calling the bluff of the IMF, ECB, and Eurozone and betting they will do whatever it takes to avoid losing one of its members. These are uncharted waters, and with the resultant shadow of uncertainty hanging over the markets, traders fled to the safety of cash, and the S&P 500 has relied upon support from its 200-...



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Phil's Favorites

Email from Greek Voter With "No Dreams and Nothing to Lose"; Greek 'No' Vote Demographics

Courtesy of Mish.

Every age group but 65 and older voted "No" in the referendum as the following Greek "No" Vote Demographics shows.



click on chart for sharper image

The following email was to a reader of mine. The email comments on the state of affairs in Greece as well as my proposed Way Forward.

"No Dreams and Nothing to Lose"

Nothing to Lose writes ...
I don't give a **** for politicians, I just care about my country.
...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Euro tanks after Greece votes 'no' (Business Insider)

Currencies are trading in Asia's Monday session, and it's not looking good for the euro.

At around $1.100, the euro is down about 0.7% against the US dollar.

Gold little changed as Fed trumps Greek drama (Market Watch)

Gold futures continued to brush off Greece’s deepening debt crisis Monday, eschewing its traditional role as a global safe haven as investors focused instead on prospects for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in coming months. ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Leading indicator breakdowns, more important than Greece?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Has Greece been a good economic indicator over the past few years? Most would say NOT!

Could Crude & Copper be sending a more important global message than what happens in Greece?

A year ago a long-term pennant pattern in play with Crude Oil. Once it started heading south a year ago, it fell hard. Crude Oil’s rally took it 23% retracement level and its 200MA line of late at (1) below. See what is happening now!

CLICK ON CHART ENLARGE

Crude is breaking below this multi-week pennant pattern after failing to climb above Fibonacci resistance and its 200ma...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 6th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Surges After Initial Forecasts Show "No" Vote Ahead

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If the early bitcoin markets are an indication of what will happen once New Zealand opens for illiquid FX trade, it will be a risk off kinda day.

And that doesn't even take into account the pandemonium that will be unleashed in China in a few hours after the PBOC just went all-in to halt the crashing stock market. What if it fails to get a green close before tomorrow's US open?

Source: ...



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Chart School

Chinese SSEC rally with Wyckoff Logic

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Supply and demand is the leading force within stock prices, you must know the tea leaves. Richard Wyckoff logic is the only known method of understanding supply and demand with the stock market.Readtheticker.com provides all the tools you need to be a Wyckoff master analyst.More from RTT Tv

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party ima...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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