Let me start off by saying the market should be correcting. Sentiment has reached ridiculous bullish extremes, the kind of extremes that led to the January /February correction.
That correction separated the second leg of the bull from the third. But let’s face it, sentiment has been in this condition for several weeks now and the best we could muster was a minor correction of 30 points on the news the SEC was filing charges against Goldman Sachs for fraud.
We’ve had three opportunities to “sell the news” with the April jobs report and recently with INTC and AAPL earnings. None of them have panned out. The market could use the Greek excuse as a downside catalyst, the same as it did in January. And now Greek short term bonds are tanking as the EU waffles about writing that check in front of the German elections in May.
All in all it boils down to the market has had every chance to correct and it has failed to do so.
Last month I speculated that we were On the Brink of an Asset Explosion. Well, we may not be on the brink anymore. We may very well be moving into the heart of the explosion right now.
We’ve just seen one of the most powerful rallies out of a corrective low in many years. Until Friday the market had held above the 10 day moving average 42 days in a row. That’s the longest stretch in over 10 years. Since the February 5th low the market has risen 71% of the time. That’s the kind of stuff parabolic blow off tops are made of.
I don’t really think we are in a parabolic blow off top just yet. What I do think is that we may have entered a runaway move similar to the August 06 to February 07 time frame.
During a runaway move, corrections tend to be uniform in both magnitude and duration. During the 06/07 rally all corrections fell in a range of about 20-35 points.
So far the rally out of the February bottom has followed this script. The February corrective move dropped 25 points in 4 days and the recent pullback on the Goldman news dropped 30 points in…
When Apple reports earnings after the close today, all eyes will be on its revenue, specifically how many fewer iPhones it sold in the quarter (consensus expects a drop of 22%), and more importantly profits for one reason: over the past several years Apple has been the single biggest contributor to S&P profitabillity. In 2015, Apple's profit rose 21% and it made more money than any other company in the S&P500 - at $53.7 billion in net income it accounted for 7% of the S&P's bottom line.
However, that ended promptly in the first quarter when APPL posted a substantial drop in both EPS and iPhone sales. It is about to get worse:...
At the same time that the Nikkei released its latest "market response" trial balloon, where it posted an article around 2am local time clearly meant for US market consumption according to which BOJ officials "were said to be leaning more toward easing", the same Nikkei also published a preview of what Japan's helicopter money may look like. There is just one problem: at first read, and judging by the market's reaction, it appears to...
With today's release of the May S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were down month over month at -0.1%. The seasonally adjusted year-over-year change has hovered between 4.4% and 5.4% for the last twelve months.
The adjacent column chart illustrates the month-over-month change in the seasonally adjusted 20-city index, which tends to be the most closely watched of the Case-Shiller series. It was down -0.1% from the previous month. The nonseasonally adjusted index was up 5.2% year-over-year.
Investing.com had forecast a -0.1% MoM seasonally adjusted decrease and 5.5% ...
The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, deferring any possible increase until September or December, as policymakers hold out for more evidence of a pickup in inflation.
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Companies around the world are exploring blockchain, the technology underpinning digital currency bitcoin. In this Blockchain unleashed series, we investigate the many possible use cases for the blockchain, from the novel to the transformative.
Most people agree we do not need to know how a television works to enjoy using one. This is true of many existing and emerging technologies. Most of us happily drive cars, use mobile phones and send emails without knowing how they work. With this in mind, here is a tech-free user guide to the blockchain - the technology infrastructure behind bitcoin...
After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at email@example.com with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
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