Posts Tagged ‘Toby Connor’

On The Brink Of An Asset Explosion, II

Guest Post: On The Brink Of An Asset Explosion, II

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Submitted by Toby O’Conner of GoldScents

Let me start off by saying the market should be correcting.  Sentiment has reached ridiculous bullish extremes, the kind of extremes that led to the January /February correction. 

That correction separated the second leg of the bull from the third.  But let’s face it, sentiment has been in this condition for several weeks now and the best we could muster was a minor correction of 30 points on the news the SEC was filing charges against Goldman Sachs for fraud.

We’ve had three opportunities to “sell the news” with the April jobs report and recently with INTC and AAPL earnings.  None of them have panned out.  The market could use the Greek excuse as a downside catalyst, the same as it did in January.  And now Greek short term bonds are tanking as the EU waffles about writing that check in front of the German elections in May.

All in all it boils down to the market has had every chance to correct and it has failed to do so.

Last month I speculated that we were On the Brink of an Asset Explosion. Well, we may not be on the brink anymore. We may very well be moving into the heart of the explosion right now.

We’ve just seen one of the most powerful rallies out of a corrective low in many years. Until Friday the market had held above the 10 day moving average 42 days in a row. That’s the longest stretch in over 10 years. Since the February 5th low the market has risen 71% of the time. That’s the kind of stuff parabolic blow off tops are made of.

I don’t really think we are in a parabolic blow off top just yet. What I do think is that we may have entered a runaway move similar to the August 06 to February 07 time frame.

During a runaway move, corrections tend to be uniform in both magnitude and duration.  During the 06/07 rally all corrections fell in a range of about 20-35 points.

So far the rally out of the February bottom has followed this script. The February corrective move dropped 25 points in 4 days and the recent pullback on the Goldman news dropped 30 points in…
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Expect the Unexpected

 

Expect the Unexpected

Courtesy of 

I repeat this Jeff Gundlach quote a lot because I love it and it constantly applies to something: “Whenever you hear people in the investment business say ‘Never’, that’s when you know it’s about to happen.”

The Dow is 2.6% away from record highs now that we’re through the fairly lousy earnings season. The SPX is even closer, just 2% away. There’s no reason. Anything can happen.

We’re getting a really great reminder of this every night, courtesy of the NBA East and West finals. Golden State barely lost a game in the regular season and pretty much manhandled their opponents in the first...



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Zero Hedge

France Goes Dark? Staff In 19 French Nuclear Power Plants To Go On Strike Tomorrow

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Following strikes over the unpopular French labor reform, that started over the weekend and crippled the French refining industry leading to gasoline shortages and rationing, things are about to get far more serious for the country whose economy has already been threatened with a sharp slowdown as a result of a relentless wave of labor unrest. According to Reuters, staff in France's 19 nuclear plants - which by definition we assume is essential -...



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Chart School

49 Years of Income and Home Values

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

Often conversations about home buying end up in discussions on the high cost of homes today and their affordability – or lack thereof.

We decided to take a look at the long-term trends in home prices in comparison to income and found that incomes have been stagnant since the early 1970s, while home prices have risen dramatically in comparison.

In order to analyze income, we have used the Middle Quintile for households, which is the middle 20% of all households adjusted for inflation, with 2014 as our base year. The Census Bureau, our source for income data, began publishing annual reports for gross household incomes in 1967. For median home prices, our source is the American Household Survey, wh...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P 500- Bull Flag potentially in play, breakout about to happen?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Has the S&P 500 formed a “Bullish Flag Pattern” and making an attempt to breakout? Possible. If you are not familiar with the pattern, see more details HERE.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Unless one lives under a rock, you are well aware that that bulls nor bears have anyth...



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ValueWalk

CfA Statement on the FBI and SEC Investigation of Sen. Bob Corker

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

OR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: May 25, 2016

Contact: Daniel Stevens, 202.780.5750, dstevens@campaignforaccountability.org

WASHINGTON D.C. – On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the FBI and the SEC are investigating Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) for his lucrative stock trades of real estate investment giant CBL Associates Properties, a real estate company based in Chattanooga, Tennessee.  Federal officials...



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Market News

Breaking News And Best Of The Web - May 25

Courtesy of John Rubino.

Central banks likened to pornographers. Greece, believe or not, is still getting bailed out, and China is apparently next. US corporate share buybacks are starting to peter out. Japan lobbies for bigger deficits around the wold. Sprott’s Rick Rule how and why the gold bull market is for real, while precious metals continue correcting. Look for next week’s COT report to be a lot more positive. Pensions are back in the news, and the numbers are as usual very bad. Doug Noland on why the Fed probably can’t raise rates in June — or ever.

Best Of The Web

Gold: Intelligentsia – you’re fired! – 321Gold

...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 23rd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

The Biggest Bitcoin Arbitrage Ever?

Courtesy of Chris at CapitalistExploits

Do you remember when you were growing up and all your friends were allowed Atari game consoles but you weren’t?

Well, I do and the things seemed as foreign to me as Venus. Mostly because the little time I managed to spend on the gaming consoles when my friends weren’t hogging them I found it all a bit silly. I never “got” computer games, and to this day still have poor comprehension of things like Angry Birds.

I suspect that many people around the world view Bitcoin in the same way as I view Angry Birds: with mild amusement and a general lack of understanding as to what the hell all the fuss is about.

I was thinking of this since a buddy of mine recently started ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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