Posts Tagged
‘TWM’
by Phil - January 23rd, 2010 11:36 am
Well I hate to say I told you so but…
No wait, that’s nonsense – what market prognosticator doesn’t love to say "I told you so"? Actually, it’s kind of my job to tell you so and the reason I’m so popular is because, more often than not, when I tell you so, I tend to be right. I’m not right all the time and my single biggest flaw is I am often right but sometimes way too early and timing is EVERYTHING in the markets. It’s not good enough to tell you what is going to happen (give things enough time and everything happens eventually, right Cramer?) - I need to get the period right as well so we can turn it into an actionable trading idea that makes money.
As a fundamentalist, I didn’t like the entire last 500 points of the rally. I had predicted the market would finish the year at 10,200 way back when it was down at 8,650 when the idea was we’d have a Santa Clause rally to 20% (10,380) and then a 20% pullback of that run (346) into Jan earnings that would take us back to 10,034 so the entire run from 10,200 to 10,700 REALLY annoyed me. It didn’t annoy me just because it made me wrong – I’m wrong a lot and I’m old enough to have learned how to deal with it. What annoyed me was the manipulation as, clearly, the fundamentals in no way, shape or form justified the additional 5% move up.
I’ve gone on and on about how fake the move was and how manipulated the markets were and how artificial the support was and I think I’ve pulled out the Seinfeld "fake, Fake, FAKE" clip often enough now that I don’t even have to do a link (but I love it, so I do) or explain how it’s a metaphor for recent market activity so I’m not going to waste our valuable time here. Let’s just do a review of the recent action, which is my best way of preparing for the upcoming Members only post where I’ll be charting out new levels and coming up with action plans for the week ahead.
So don’t read this if you can’t stand to hear "I told you so" because this is the review post and I did tell you so!
When did things go wrong? Clearly they were wrong for ages but when…

Tags: AAPL, APH, BTU, BYD, CAKE, DIA, EDZ, FAS, GE, GOOG, GS, HOG, HOV, IMAX, ISRG, IWM, IYR, NSM, QQQQ, RTH, SDS, SPWRA, TASR, TBT, TWM, UNP, UYG, V, VNO, WFR, XLF, ZION
Posted in Immediately available to public | Join Member's Chat - 66 Comments Here »
Email This Post
Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
del.icio.us
Digg
by Phil - October 4th, 2009 8:28 am
Well this has been annoying…
After 30 days of trading our current virtual portfolio value is just $100,454.39 as we took quite a setback when we sold naked calls ahead of the move up. Fortunately, we didn’t lose our cool and rode it out. In fact, we only made one trade in the past two weeks so there hasn’t been much to report and there still isn’t but the end of our first month is a good time for an update. Of course, we do have a lot of outstanding October Premium to collect so the next two weeks are when we make our real money…
We still have $92,315 in cash so plenty of buying power should we choose to deploy it but we are sticking with our plan of scaling into the postions we have, which means we’re letting them run out through October 16th expirations and we’ll see if we finally get the bargains we’ve been waiting for to set up our longer term bull plays. For now, in this VERY conservative, low-touch virtual portfolio, we’ve been following Warren Buffett’s Investing Rule #1: Don’t lose money!
| Description |
Price Paid |
Last Price |
Qty |
Market Value |
Margin Req. |
Profit Loss |
% |
| AIG CALL 40 Oct 09 |
$6.30 |
$5.50 |
-1 |
$550.00 |
$1,196.20 |
$80.00 |
12.70% |
| On target with AIG at $43.40, this is typical of our outstanding sales with the VIX so high – we just have to wait. |
| AMZN CALL 90 Oct 09 |
$3.60 |
$2.80 |
-10 |
$2,800.00 |
$16,127.50 |
$800.00 |
22.22% |
| We wouldn’t do this play if we needed the margin but a nice $2,800 to collect if AMZN stays below $90 |
| BAC CALL 10 Jan 11 |
$8.60 |
$7.50 |
5 |
$3,750.00 |
$0.00 |
-$550.00 |
-12.79% |
| BAC CALL 17 Oct 09 |
$1.27 |
$0.43 |
-5 |
$215.00 |
$1,110.50 |
$420.00 |
66.14% |
| BAC PUT 17 Oct 09 |
$0.97 |
$1.09 |
-5 |
$545.00 |
$1,770.50 |
-$60.00 |
-12.37% |
| BAC PUT |
…

Tags: AIG, AMZN, BAC, C, CROX, GE, LZB, MHP, PSQ, TWM, UYG, XLF
Posted in Virtual Portfolio Review | Join Member's Chat - 4 Comments Here »
Email This Post
Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
del.icio.us
Digg
by Phil - September 13th, 2009 8:26 am
Slow and steady wins the race!
We had a big run and capped our gains a little early for the week by doubling up on our PSQ (short Nasdaq) calls on Thursday’s mad run. This did the job of locking in our profits but that hedge is now making up $450 of losses, which is 1/3 of all our losses for the month. Still we managed to gain $396 for the week with still just $28,537 in positions so that’s another 1% for the week, a pretty good clip…
I am happy to say that our $100K Virtual Portfolio is now live and available on WallStreetSurvivor.com at:
We’re actually well ahead of our cash goal as we also have $86,101 in cash along with our $28,537 in positions with $13,768 in margin devoted to some of the longer hedges we’ve sold. That leaves us with $147,935 in margin buying power and we’re going to use it to do a few "stupid option tricks" into expirations that should pick us up a little extra cash over the next 5 days and Wednesday or Friday we must expect to make our rolling moves for the current month and I’ll be sending out Alerts to Members later in the week. For now, we are very happy with all of our current positions as we have 16 winners and just 7 losers – that’s very good for a well-hedged virtual portfolio…
There are only 6 September contracts for us to worry about and Wednesday would be the earliest day we need to make adjustments on those so we’ll concentrate today on things we can make money on tomorrow. The easiest was to start is to look at some stocks we may want to own for October and take a stab at selling some naked puts on them as we won’t be too upset if they get put to us or we’ll be happy to pocket the cash if they aren’t. We already sold the MHP October puts from last week’s Watch List but we haven’t filled the others. As with those plays, we’re not interested if we don’t get our prices:
- AMZN has a great premium and selling 5 $85 calls for $1.25 and 5 $85 puts for
…

Tags: AMZN, BAC, BBY, ERY, FITB, GE, HIG, PSQ, RF, RIMM, TWM, XLF
Join Member's Chat - 19 Comments Here »
Email This Post
Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
del.icio.us
Digg
February 11th, 2012 8:20 pm
Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
Damn. Two (MJ and Whitney) of the big 4 of the 80s gone – Madonna and Prince remain. Probably the most well known Star Spangled Banner ever…
Disclosure Notice
Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund's holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/holdings/blog
...
more from Mark
February 11th, 2012 8:05 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
We have posted various extracts from this piece from Credit Suisse previously. We will post from it again, because, to loosely paraphrase Lewis Black, it bears reposting... especially in the context of the latest and greatest Greek "bailout" (of Europe's bankers), which incidentally, will achieve nothing and merely bring the country one step closer to a military coup and/or civil war.
The flaw
The market is essentially proceeding on the assumption, as we see it, that banks’ capital requirements can be met organically, through earnings and deleveraging. We ...
more from Tyler
February 11th, 2012 6:46 pm
It's Well Past Time for Plan Z
Courtesy of The Automatic Earth
Mario Draghi captured the utter ineptitude of him and every other Eurocrat out there when he said the following at today’s press conference in response to a question about a Greek exit: “To have a Plan B means defeat already. I am confident that all the pieces of this will fall in the proper places.”
Most 5-year old children in pre-school have already been told not to believe that they can always win and that “winning isn’t everything”, but Draghi & Co. still refuse to consider the possibility of failure even as it is staring them in the face. What’s really disturbing is that the stakes here are obviously much, much higher than they are o...
more from Ilene
February 11th, 2012 5:35 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short.
Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.
It's interesting to watch some of the terms bandied about in headline news. For example, the LA Times headline reads S&P says student loan debt could be next financial bubble.
Next? Could Be?
What with the word "next"? Also what's with the words "could be"? Without a doubt student loans are in a bubble and have been for many years. The source of the problem, as it always is with financial bubbles, is cheap money, loans to nearly anyone, and in the case of student loans, no way to discharge the debt, even in bankruptcy.
From the article:
"Student-loan debt has ballooned and m...
more from Chart School
February 11th, 2012 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysis
ICABUYThe projected value for Empresas ICA is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.
XBUYThe projected value for US Steel is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.
FEICBUYProjected value continues to rise for FEI while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.
ASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving....
more from Sabrient
February 10th, 2012 6:20 pm
Courtesy of Benzinga.
The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Friday February 10, 2012:
Actuant Acquires Jeyco Pty
The Deal:
Actuant (NYSE: ATU) announced Friday that it has acquired Jeyco Pty Ltd (“Jeyco”). Headquartered near Perth, Australia, Jeyco designs and provides specialized mooring, rigging and towing systems and services to the offshore oil & gas industry in Australia and other international markets. Additionally, its highly engineered products are used in a variety of applications for other markets including cyclone mooring and marine, defense and mining tow systems. Jeyco generates annual revenues of approximately $20 million.
Actuant shares closed at $27.33 Friday, a loss of 0.18% on average volume.
...
http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider
February 10th, 2012 4:11 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Greece was “saved” for less than 24 hours but now major ETFs around the world skid into the weekend on Greek fears
After wangling for a week or more, Greek took their new deal to the European Ministers meeting, only to have it promptly rejected and so as we go into the weekend, major global markets and ETFs have again hit the skids on Greece.
After two years of wangling, the European zone is demanding yet more and deeper cuts for Greece to qualify for the next round of bailout loans that will keep the country from going bankrupt on March 20th.
Major European and United States ETF responded negatively to the new developments:
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ETF (NYSEARCA:...
more from John
February 10th, 2012 1:40 pm
Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Click here for the full report.
To learn more, sign up for David's
free newsletter and receive the
free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. -
Ilene...
more from David
February 10th, 2012 1:22 pm
Today’s tickers: TRLG, KR & IGT
...
more from Caitlin
February 6th, 2012 9:02 am
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
Optrader
...
more from OpTrader
February 5th, 2012 5:19 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the latest Stock World Weekly, called "The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics."
...
more from SWW
January 30th, 2012 7:22 am
Here is a quick update of past trades and our current position.
AA Money
No trade this week as we wait for AA to settle. Phil remarked last week that AA seemed overvalued. In the meantime, it looks like we might have to roll our Feb 9 calls. Good thing we sold only 5 of them against our position.
Last week P&L - 310.00
We lost ground last week, but we still have 11 months to sell premium!
FAS Money
Very good week for FAS Money as we benefited from the large amount of premium sold the previous week. We covered most of the shorts in advance of the Fed speech, but sold another set of options on Wednesday after the speech - 2 FAS calls that expired worthless on Friday, 2 FAS put that we are still holding and 2 FAZ put that we bought back for a profit on Friday. A late stick comparable to last week's almost gave us problems at the end of the day though!
Last week P&L - $4277.00
IWM Money
A decent week in this virtual portfo...
more from Strategies
January 18th, 2012 1:09 am
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...
more from Pharmboy

About Phil:
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Learn more About Phil >>
About Ilene:
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(blogroll, archives,
more).
Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and
content sharing
programs.
Favorites Site >>