Posts Tagged ‘TWTR’

$29 Trillion Tuesday – Central Banksters Gone Wild!

Fake it 'till you make it.  

While it was Aristotle who said that "acting virtuous will make one virtuous" (and clearly Aristotle hasn't been to the same charity events/wealth orgies that I have, or he never would have said it), it is our modern Central Banking system that decrees that "acting like the economy is better will make the economy better."  

Now, perhaps if they had spent $29,000,000,000,000 by giving 7Bn people $4,142.85 each – we WOULD have a better economy now – but that's not what happened at all, is it?  Instead, 70,000 people and corporations (the top 0.0001%) got an average of $414M each while the other 99.9999% of us, especially the bottom 90% actually are now worse off than when the Central Banksters decided to meddle in our affairs in the first place.  

The rich are indeed getting stunningly richer with the Forbes 400 (richest Americans) AVERAGING $800M gains in 2013 as the stock market (where most of their money is) rose over 30%.  Again – AVERAGE gains of $800M per Billionaire!  Once you get past #50 on the list (Google's Eric Schmidt with $8.3Bn), that's AT LEAST 10% of their total net worth added in a single year!

 As I said in our recent trade review "Thank You Sir, MAY I Have Another", if they are just going to keep giving away money like this – we're going to just have to keep taking it (through our many bullish trade ideas) but, at some point, the music will stop and you'd BETTER be able to find a chair fast!  

There's a very good reason the Corporate Media is constantly telling you how bad "class warfare" would be - BECAUSE THEY ARE ALREADY WINNING THE WAR AND YOU ARE NOT EVEN FIGHTING!!!

Like any good game of musical chairs, we have no idea when the music is going to stop, so we all have to keep dancing around like nothing is wrong until it does.  As I pointed out yesterday, it's very easy to pay $150Bn for Amazon (at $327 per share) with money you just printed because…
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TGIF – Can We Stop The Week Before Our Indexes Fail?

Look at the Russell!  

Look at the Nasdaq!  Are you seriously still holding onto your Dow, S&P and NYSE stocks?  That's exactly what people did in 2008, when they were so used to the markets being saved whenever they dipped, that they ignored all the warning signs – until it was too late.  

I know that I've been sounding like a broken record and you can call me Chicken Little but cut me a little slack as we are protecting profits here.  

We have 5 virtual porfolios we track for our Members and the $100,000 Butterfly Portfolio is up 19.4% ($19,000), the $500,000 Long-Term Portfolio is up 9.6% ($48,000), the $100,000 Portfolio is down 5.8% ($5,800), the $500,000 Income Portfolio is up 6.4% ($32,000) and our $25,000 Portfolio is up 15.4% ($3,850).  Overall, that's a gain of 8.8% on $1.225M deployed in 4 months.  

SPY 5 MINUTEThe Short-Term Portfolio is a hedge to the Long-Term Portfolio, so we haven't cashed those in but the Income Portfolio doesn't have an external hedge, so we moved to cash on that one last month (BEFORE the Nas and Rut started crashing off decade highs) and the Butterfly Portfolio is self-hedging while the $25KP has just one position left.  

Perhaps I'm wrong and the Nasdaq and the Russell will recover and the other indexes will all move up to new highs.  Even if they do, our worst case is we miss a bit of a rally.  If we're breaking out to new all-time highs from here – there will be plenty of money to be made.  BUT – if I'm right and the market drops 5-10%, then our taking 110% off the table at the top means that when we buy stocks again at 90%, we are buying 120% of what we could have bought had we not wisely cashed out in the rally.  

NDX WEEKLYThe REWARD for being cautious is owning 20% more shares if we're right, owning maybe 2.5% less shares if we're wrong or owning the same amount if the market stays flat.  It doesn't take a degree in statistical analysis to see why I
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FB, TWTR Shares Under Pressure

When shares in Facebook reached their post-IPO low of $17.55 in September of 2012, the stock touched a price-to-sales (P/S) low of roughly 6.0. But its loss of face was more than made up for by its subsequent 230% rally in the 20 months since, leaving FB stock trading at $57.50 today, or at approximately 15.5 times sales (calculated on a trailing twelve month basis).

Consider however, that in contrast, shares in Twitter, which traded up to a lofty P/S ratio in excess of 74x following its IPO in November, today trade at a P/S ratio of around 18x. TWTR shares, which today trade down roughly 3.0% at $31.00 as of the time of this writing, have dropped nearly 60% from a post-IPO high of $74.73. Using the current TTM sales per share for Twitter of $1.67, consider a hypothetical situation in which shares of Twitter continue to drop and reach a P/S ratio as low as that experienced by Facebook in September of 2012. Under those conditions, shares in Twitter would find a bottom at approximately $10.00, or nearly 70% below the current level.

Of course, the key word above was “hypothetical.” No telling what is in store for Twitter or Facebook, though both stocks are under pressure again today. Shares in Twitter found favor after its IPO but now face potential competition from perhaps the world’s largest IPO by Alibaba, which conceivably runs the risk of crowding out some Internet names should tech investors sell the old to buy the new.  


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Thrilling Thursday – Dow Hits Record Highs on Lower Earnings!

Why should we worry?

The Dow is at 16,580 so all must be well, right?  The fact that we're up here on low volume and even lower earnings is just one of those nit-picky things that won't matter a year from now, when TA people use the movement to draw new, bullish trend lines.

That's what the Fed is controlling, they are painting charts in broad strokes to keep things moving along – even when they aren't.  

Sure the US economy is only growing at a 0.1% annual pace and sure that's down shockingly from 2.6% last quarter but, hey, we EXPECTED to only grow at 1% – so it's ONLY a 90% miss – what, us worry?

The Fed says it's just bad weather slowing us down and, whether or not you believe that, they also promise to continue to stimulate the economy long after it is necessary.  The Fed is like Santa Claus, only they don't have to put in any effort to make their toys, so Christmas comes 365 days a year for the top 0.01%.  For the bottom 99.99% – well, it's 0.1% growth on the "trickle down" effect.  

4-30-2014 6-22-17 PM Corp CashIn fact, if you take out the Banksters, who are piling up the Fed's free money in their vaults and using it to manipulate the stock and commodity markets (and higher costs for Energy, Food and Health Care were the only reason our GDP wasn't -1% instead of +0.1%), then you can see that those companies not protected by the Fed are in big trouble

Not since 1999 has there been less cash relative to debt in Corporate America.  Yes, money is cheap, so why not borrow some but that money isn't being used to invest in plants, equipment or, God forbid, hiring and training more people – it's being used to buy back stock and pay out dividends to give the ILLUSION that earnings are improving, when it's actually only the share count that's being reduced.  

As you can see from this chart of the S&P, earnings are up just 25% from where they were in 2009, when the market…
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Twitter Call Spread Trades Amid Dip In Share Price

TWTR – Twitter, Inc. – Shares in Twitter are sliding today, down as much as 8.0% to $63.50 during morning trading on a downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight with a price target unchanged at $33.00 at Morgan Stanley. The stock has since bounced off the lows to trade down less than 5.0% on the session at $65.68 as of 11:35 a.m. EST.

Activity in the 21 Feb ’14 expiry call options caught our attention today, with the $75/$85 call spread trading more than 14,000 times within the first two hours of the opening bell. It looks like the spread is being purchased at an average premium of $2.20 each. The bullish trade makes money if shares in Twitter rally 17.5% over the current price of $65.68 to exceed the average breakeven point at $77.20 by expiration, with maximum potential profits of $7.80 per contract available in the event of a 30% upside move in the share price to $85.00 during the next six weeks. 


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Twitter Shares In ‘Retweet’ On Analyst Downgrades

TWTR – Twitter, Inc. – Shares in Twitter are in negative territory today, moving lower after rallying four of the past five trading sessions amid downgrades to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at SunTrust Robinson and ‘Underperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at Wells Fargo. The stock traded up to a new all-time high of $60.24 during morning trading, but currently stand 3.0% lower on the session at $57.25 as of 11:45 a.m. EST.

Trading in far out of the money TWTR call options expiring next week suggests some traders are positioning for the price of Twitter’s shares to move substantially higher before the end of the calendar year. Upwards of 5,000 of the 27 Dec ’13 $70 strike calls changed hands by midday in New York against zero open interest. Time and sales data suggests most of the calls were likely purchased at premiums of $0.50, $0.65 and $0.80 per contract. Call buyers may see the value of these contracts increase if shares in Twitter rebound and resume hitting fresh highs prior to expiration.

Overall options volume on Twitter is above the stock’s average daily reading, with around 118,000 contracts traded by midday versus TWTR’s average daily options volume of around 110,000 contracts. 

RY – Royal Bank of Canada – Options on Royal Bank of Canada are more active than usual today amid heavy trading in Jan ’14 expiry put options. Shares in RBC are on the rise, up 1.8% on the session at $65.55 as of 12:15 p.m. in New York trading amid reports the Canadian bank may be considering a spinoff of parts of its proprietary trading business.

The most traded options contracts on the stock are the Jan ’14 $65 strike puts, with upwards of 3,000 lots in play against open interest of 1,945 contracts. It looks like most of the puts were purchased roughly one hour into the trading day at a premium of $1.15 each. The contracts may be profitable at expiration next month in the event that the price of the underlying slips 2.6% from the current price of $65.55 to breach the breakeven point on the downside at $63.85. 


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Visa Call Options Look For Rebound

V – Visa, Inc. – Shares in Visa are moving lower today, declining as much as 2.5% to $199.93 during morning trading after a large block of 8 million Visa shares priced at $201.25 was reportedly sold via JPMorgan. Upside call options changing hands on the global payment company, however, suggest one or more traders are positioning for the price of the underlying to make a quick recovery.

The Dec 06 ’13 $205 strike calls have traded more than 1,300 times so far today against open interest of 822 contracts. Some of the volume appears to have been purchased in the early going at a premium of $0.45 each. Traders long the calls at a premium of around $0.45 per contract may profit at expiration this week if shares in Visa rally 1.6% over the current price of $202.24 to exceed the breakeven point at $205.45. The stock is now off the lowest levels of the session; intraday gains in the price of the underlying has lifted the value of the weekly $205 strike calls to $0.67 each as of the time of this writing. 

TWTR – Twitter, Inc. – Weekly options changing hands on Twitter this morning look for shares in the name to continue to regain ground during the next few trading sessions and potentially reach the highest level since November 21st ahead of the weekend. Shares in TWTR are up 0.50% on the session at $40.98 just after 11:00 a.m. EST.

The most traded contracts on Twitter thus far in the session are the Dec 06 ’13 $42 calls, with roughly 7,600 calls in play against open interest of 837 contracts. A large proportion of the $42 calls traded appear to have been purchased within the first 10 minutes of the opening bell at a premium of $0.40 each. Traders long the calls stand ready to profit at expiration this week in the event that Twitter’s shares rise 3.5% over the current level of $40.98 to exceed the breakeven price of $42.40. 


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Twitter Options In Focus As Shares Hit Post-IPO Low

TWTR – Twitter, Inc. – Shares in Twitter slipped 5.4% to a new post-IPO low of $38.80 on Monday morning, sparking mixed trading in weekly options on the stock. Overall volume in Twitter options is a little less than half of the stock’s average daily volume, with around 42,000 contracts traded as of midday in New York. Put options are more active than calls, with the put/call ratio nearing 2.3 as of the time of this writing.

Of those contracts that expire at the end of the shortened trading week, the Nov 29 ’13 $39.5 strike puts attracted the most volume. Upwards of 3,600 of the $39.5 strike puts have changed hands so far against open interest of 333 contracts. Time and sales data suggests most of the volume was purchased this morning at a premium of $0.60 each. Traders long the puts stand ready to profit at expiration this week in the event that shares in TWTR decline roughly 0.75% from the current price of $39.20 to trade below the breakeven price of $38.90.

Meanwhile, looking out to the Dec 06 ’13 expiry contracts, upside call buying indicates other traders are positioning for the price of the underlying to rebound in the near term. One strategist appears to have purchased roughly 1,000 of the Dec 06 ’13 $40 strike puts at a premium of $1.00 each. The bullish position makes money at expiration next week if TWTR shares rally 4.5% over the current level to exceed the breakeven point at $41.00. 


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BBY Options Active Ahead Of Q3 Earnings

BBY – Best Buy, Inc. – Shares in Best Buy have slipped into negative territory in the final hour of trading on Monday, with the stock down 0.20% at $43.62 as of 3:20 p.m. EST, ahead of the electronics retailer’s third-quarter earnings report prior to the opening bell tomorrow.

Nov 22 ’13 expiry options are active ahead of the quarterly earnings release, with interest rising in both call and put options. One strategist appears to be taking the view that shares in the name will rally to fresh 52-week highs this week, buying a 1,000-lot Nov 22 ’13 $44/$48 call spread at a net premium of $1.23 per contract. The spread makes money if shares in Best Buy rally 3.7% over the current price to exceed the breakeven point at $45.23. Maximum potential profits of $2.77 per contract are available on the bull call spread in the event that BBY shares surge 10% to $48.00 by expiration this week. BBY shares are up roughly 200% since this time last year.  

Overall options volume on Best Buy is approaching 35,000 contracts in the final 30 minutes of trading, which is roughly 165% of the stock’s average daily volume of around 20,700 contracts. Puts are trading more heavily than calls, with the put/call ratio up above 1.2 as of the time of this writing. 

TWTR – Twitter, Inc. – Shares in Twitter are on the decline today, slipping 2.8% to $42.73 during the first half of the session after the stock was rated new ‘Sell’ with a 12-month target share price of $34.00 at Wunderlich Securities. Options on Twitter, which began trading on Friday, are active today, with volume nearing…
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Agilent Options Active As Shares Hit Highest Since ’01

A – Agilent Technologies, Inc. – Shares in the provider of measurement solutions and technology are soaring today, up as much as 10% during morning trading to $55.74, the highest level since January of 2001, after the company posted better than expected fourth-quarter earnings following the closing bell on Thursday.

Trading in Agilent options suggests some strategists are positioning for shares in the name to extend gains this calendar year. The most traded options contracts as measured by volume on Agilent Technologies thus far in the session are the Dec $57.5 strike calls, with around 2,850 lots in play against open interest of just 30 contracts. Time and sales data suggests most of the volume was purchased earlier in the session at a premium of $0.50 each. Buyers of the $57.5 calls may profit at expiration next month if shares in Agilent rally 4.0% over today’s high of $55.74 to exceed the breakeven price of $58.00. 

TWTR – Twitter Inc. – Options on newly public San Francisco, California-based Twitter Inc. started trading this morning, giving traders and investors the ability to take short and long-term views on where they see the price of the company's shares trading. Contracts with more than two years to expiration are available as well as call and put options that expire next week. More than 15,000 contracts changed hands on TWTR within the first 15 minutes of the opening bell.

Shares in Twitter, which rallied more than 90% on their first day of trading to touch $50.09, nearly two times the $26.00 level at which shares were priced, are today down roughly 0.75% at $44.35 as of 9:45 a.m. EST. Early trading in TWTR options indicates greater volume in Twitter puts versus calls, with the put/call ratio at 1.2 as of the time of this writing. 


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Phil's Favorites

Rate Hike Cycles, Gold, and the "Rule of Total Morons"

Courtesy of Mish.

In response to Janet Yellen’s everything is OK speech following today’s balance sheet reduction notice by the FOMC committee, I received an interesting set of comments from Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man Blog regarding rate hike cycles, gold, and stock market peaks.

“Rule of Total Morons”

A new bull market in gold started in late 2015 concurrently with the Fed’s first rate hike. That is no coincidence. The gold market is highly sensitive to future changes in liquidity. The more tightening moves the Fed undertakes (which it ...



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Zero Hedge

The Best Jobs Without A College Degree 2017 (In One Simple Chart)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The Great Recession destroyed the job market for workers without college degrees, and the situation hasn’t gotten any better.

This begs the question - can you still enjoy a high standard of living without a college degree? And what are the highest paying jobs fo...



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Digital Currencies

Can cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin survive scrutiny from central banks?

 

Can cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin survive scrutiny from central banks?

Courtesy of Nafis AlamUniversity of Reading

William Potter/Shutterstock

The future of money looks very different in the world of cryptocurrencies. There is a growing consensus among businesses, investors and countries (Venezuela in particular) that these alternative forms of online money are going to dominate payments in the next decade. There may be agreem...



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ValueWalk

Tagging Fake Articles Is Failing To Combat Fake News

By Rupert Hargreaves. Originally published at ValueWalk.

So-called “fake news” and not in form of The Onion (which is obvious satire) has been around in one form or another for hundreds of years. The world’s first daily newspapers, which were printed in London’s Fleet Street in the early 1700s, were full of stories and hearsay designed to influence readers and drum up sales. However, the readership of these papers was relatively limited compared to the size of the audience available to online publications today.

]]> Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

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Insider Scoop

Wall Street Weighs In On Adobe's Mixed Earnings Report

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related ADBE 15 Biggest Mid-Day Losers For Wednesday 5 Biggest Price Target Changes For Wednesday ...

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Chart School

Minor Changes: Yesterday's and Weekend Comments Remain Valid

Courtesy of Declan.

I don't want to overplay today's action as little changed in the broader scheme of things. Days like today are welcomed and help shape up swing trades for those trading in near term timeframes.

The tight doji in the S&P could be used for a swing trade; buy a break of the high/short loss of low - stop on flip side. High whipsaw risk but look for 3:1 risk:reward and maybe trail stops if deciding to go with partial profits.


Tech averages are still set up for a breakout. While not an ...

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Members' Corner

"Citron Exposes Ubiquiti Networks" But TNN Says "Not So Fast"

What do you think? (There's a comment section below )

"CITRON EXPOSES UBIQUITI NETWORKS" 

Does Ubiquiti Networks (NASDAQ:UBNT) actually have real products that sell to consumers? Of course! So did Valeant and WorldCom, but that does not stop its financials from having every indication of being completely fraudulent.

Citron will detail a series of alarming red flags and detail how Ubiquiti Networks is deceiving the investing public.

Read the full report here.

******

Rebutal by The Nattering Naybob, ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Courtesy of Rachel ShafferUniversity of Washington

Assessing the data. LightField Studios/shutterstock.com

Toxicology’s founding father, Paracelsus, is famous for proclaiming that “...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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