Posts Tagged ‘Ultrashort Proshares Real Estate’

Oxen Group’s Trade of the Day: SRS

Buy Pick: SRS

SRS ultrashort proshares real estate Courtesy of David 

The Oxen Group is liking a bearish market or at least a somewhat sideways market. The market has jumped up for three straight days, and a technical pullback with investors taking profits may be in order. One area that appears fundamentally bearish is the housing sector. Ultrashort Proshares Real Estate (SRS), which is a housing/commercial real estate ETF, looks to be bearish on a general market trend as well as news that foreclosures are continuing to rise to now 15% for the year and 33% in June.

The trend is not stabilizing, which while not directly affecting commercial real estate means that commercial real estate is in a tough spot, as well. Futures are currently registering in the red, and we did not have any large market moving earnings or news come out in after hours. Further, news that CIT Group has failed to get lending and will be filing bankruptcy shows that the recession may still be taking more victims. Many earnings are coming out in the morning, but not a marquis name that could really drive the market higher except perhaps JPMorganChase. Economic data being released could further influence a pullback if jobless claims come in under expectations. Even if jobless claims are good and JPMorgan is solid, investors will be looking to sell these stocks into this upward trend. SRS, however, is in the exact opposite boat. The ETF is extremely undervalued, just passed under a lower bollinger band, and is way oversold. Therefore, it is setting up for a perfect buying opportunity.

Entry: Recommend buying in 15-30 minutes into session.
Exit: We recommend exiting after a 2-5% increase.
Stop Loss: We recommend a 3% stop loss on all buy in prices
Upper Resistance: 21.00

 


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Pick of the day: SRS

Courtesy of David at the Oxen Group

Pick of the day: SRS

SRS Chart - Oxen GroupThe Oxen Group, for Wednesday, is looking at a continued bearish market for a third straight day. With today’s bullish economic data, investors still sold off stocks, pointing to a bear market that should continue as a bland day continues tomorrow. Most analysts think that Obama’s financial regulation plans will not do much for the market. Futures are up, in after hours, but with this data, if a rally cannot be held, then there is no reason to expect a positive day at this time. The CPI will determine the day.

One industry that really looks bearish tomorrow is housing. The housing industry got a shot with, on the surface, bullish news. Instead, the housing market ended up with minimal gains or in the red. Light volume shows that investors are not excited about the market.

Tomorrow should continue a downward trend for housing sparked by a downgrade of Beazer Homes to ultra-junk status by the S&P.  That sent the stock down 10% in after hours. This is really a market that needs some very bullish jolt to get it going, and it until that happens this market is fundamentally bearish. With that said, Ultrashort Proshares Real Estate looks to be a strong play as an inverse to the housing industry, which should fall after its run up today. Technically, the ETF has been moving and is trending upwards with more buyers getting involved. Buyers are still on the sidelines to short housing. Buy in early and watch the run!

Entry: Recommend buying within first 5 – 25 minutes.
Exit: We recommend exiting after a 2-4% increase.
Upper Resistance: 22.50

 

David’s Oxen Group Picks

Date           Stock Entry Exit %Change
5/29/2009           GPS 16.99 17.67 4.00%
5/30/2009           TM 80.77 81.72 1.18%
6/2/2009          SRS 18.06 18.6 3.00%
6/3/2009          DUG 16.68 17.35 4.00%
6/4/2009     TLAB – SS 5.95 5.84 2.00%
   6/5/2009               XOP 35.84 35.85 0.00%
6/8/2009              BLK 164.76 168.87 2.50%
6/9/2009          USD 20.3 21.12 4.00%
6/10/2009          SINA 30.17 31.07 3.00%
6/11/2009          SRS 18.39 19.3 5.00%
  6/12/2009              NSM 13.23 13.56 2.50%
6/15/2009          SKF 18.32 19.05 4.00%

 

 


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ValueWalk

Alpha Or Beta In The Eye Of The Beholder: What Drives Hedge Fund Flows

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Alpha Or Beta In The Eye Of The Beholder: What Drives Hedge Fund Flows

Vikas Agarwal
Georgia State University; University of Cologne - Centre for Financial Research (CFR)

Clifton Green

Emory University - Goizueta Business School

Honglin Ren

...

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Zero Hedge

Frontrunning: July 29

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

  • Fed expected to push ahead with rate hike plan (Reuters)
  • Upbeat earnings lift European stocks ahead of Fed (Reuters)
  • Chevron to Cut 1,500 Jobs (Rigzone)
  • Can Windows 10 Revive PC Sales? (WSJ)
  • U.S. Junk-Bond Buyers Left in Dark as Private Deals Become Norm (...


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Phil's Favorites

Sentiment Measures vs. Retail Spending: Clueless Clues and Random Noise

Courtesy of Mish.

Economists Shocked

Economists were shocked by the plunge in the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index this morning, well below the any economist's guess in Bloomberg's Econoday Forecast.
The consensus estimate was 99.6. The consensus range was 97.0 to 102.0. And the actual result ... 90.9.

Consumer confidence has weakened substantially this month, to 90.9 which is more than 6 points below Econoday's low estimate. Weakness is centered in the expectations component which is down nearly 13 points to 79.9 and reflects sudden pessimism in the jobs outlook where an unusually large percentage, at 20 percent even, see fewer jobs opening up six months from now.

A striking negative in the report is a drop in buying plans for autos which conf...



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Chart School

Relief Rally?

Courtesy of Declan.

Big gains and a strong reversal in the Russell 2000 puts a potential bottom in play.  The Russell 2000 started the day below the 200-day MA, but then rallied to claim a spike low and a close above this key moving average. Small Caps are a key driver in trend cycles. The 'bull trap' from June is still dominant. and a push above 1,280 looks a tall order. but reversing the breakdown of the rising trendline at 1,240 is a different proposition. If it fails at this, then a swift return below the 200-day MA, and then some, opens up. And the long awaited intermediate term decline begins.


The S&P gained over 1% with a second bounce off the 200-d...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Dollar gains against yen, but weakens vs. pound (Market Watch)

The dollar advanced against the yen on Tuesday as worries about China’s stock selloff abated somewhat, but the buck fell against the pound after the latest reading on U.K. economic growth matched expectations.

Some stabilization by Asian stocks prompted nervous investors to loosen their grip on the perceived safety of the Japanese currency.

The dollar USDJPY, -0.01%  was up at ¥123.73, compared with ¥123.24 late Monday in New York. ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Travel indicator being put to critical tests

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The American Economy is driven a good deal by the consumer.

The table below reflects that nearly 70% of GDP is based consumption.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The 4-pack below looks at consumption with a focus on the travel and leisure sector, by looking at Avis (CAR), Hertz (HTZ), Expedia (EXPE) and Priceline (PCLN).

CLICK ON CHART ABOVE TO ENLARGE

While many seem to be occupied by the news abou...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Lackluster earnings reports put eager bulls back into waiting mode

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Corporate earnings reports have been mixed at best, interspersed with the occasional spectacular report -- primarily from mega-caps like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), or Amazon (AMZN). Some of the bul...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Gold Spikes Back Above $1100, Bitcoin Jumps

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Gold is jumping after the overnight double flash-crash...testing back towards $1100...

Bitcoin is back up to pre-"Greece is Fixed" levels...

Charts: Bloomberg and Bitcoinwisdom

...

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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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