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Top Trades for Fri, 10 Nov 2017 11:40 – TWTR

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Top Trades for Fri, 10 Nov 2017 11:40 – TWTR
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TWTR is interesting as they just raised the character limit and launched their $99 subscription thing:

Our OOP target for them is $18 and that's sensible but it's for Jan and we'll be called away and it's $20 in the LTP – also to be called away with full gains.  

As a replacement trade, I don't want to go crazy and I think either their new stuff works or it's an epic fail so I think just a bull call spread is good though there are no 2020s yet, so that's annoying.  Still, I'm worried they will pop from here so let's lock it down and add:

For the OOP:

  • Buy 15 TWTR 2019 $15 calls for $6.60 ($9,900) 
  • Sell 15 TWTR 2019 $22 calls for $3.10 ($4,650)
  • Sell 5 TWTR Jan $21 calls for $1 ($500) 

That's net $4,750 on the $10,500 spread so $5,750 (121%) upside potential if TWTR gains just 10% next year.  Of course our goal is to sell at least $500 worth of calls every other month and knock off $3,000 or so from our basis.

For the LTP:

  • Buy 50 TWTR 2019 $15 calls for $6.60 ($33,000) 
  • Sell 50 TWTR 2019 $22 calls for $3.10 ($15,500)
  • Sell 20 TWTR Jan $21 calls for $1 ($2,000) 

Here we're netting in for $15,500 on the $35,000 spread so the upside is $19,500 (125%) and hopefully $12,000 worth of short calls to sell.  Of course when 2020s come out we'll probably roll our long calls to those, which will then give us more of a safety net to sell more short-term calls (and puts when there's a dip).