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Top Trades for Fri, 14 Nov 2014 11:09

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Top Trades for Fri, 14 Nov 2014 11:09
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Gold/StJ – I think there's been a supply glut this year as miners dump inventory as well as ETFs flooding the markets with their physical gold.  Demand has been off as people don't have the money to buy gold and there's only so many bathrooms Trump can decorate.  I think the real swing is in ETF holdings, which have dumped 40M ounces (1,250 tons) of gold onto the market in the last two years:

When (and if) gold comes back in vogue and these ETFs start buying, there will be no way to keep up with the surge in demand.  Since the ETFs only have 50M ounces left, it's not likely we'd have another move like we did (from $1,800 to $1,200) so figure another 33% drop to $800 is very unlikely and, even if it happens, it would be time to BUYBUYBUY at that bottom.  Realistically, $1,000 should be a very solid floor and it won't take much to kick us back to $1,200 – so that makes this a great entry point.  

That chart may not even tell the whole story as this one from Zeal says GLD alone dumped 500 TONS of gold since Dec 2012 – that's almost doubling the supply hitting the market for two years, ovewhelming any buying done by Central Banks or gold bugs.  

 

Oops, bad math before, StJ was correct, it's 2,500 tons per year that's mined so the ETFs dumping 1,250 tons on the market over 2 years bloated the supply by 25% – still a lot, of course.  Good gold facts here.  

Of course, that goes back to my point that, even if they dump half their gold again in the next year or two – it will have 50% less effect than the last two years have had in depressing prices.  Meanwhile, any surge in demand as prices begin to stabilize (because mines shut down and ETFs stop selling so much) causes money to go back to the ETFs and forces them to buy again – so gold prices can snap back hard and fast once they get going!  

So I still LOVE ABX at $11.78, since they have 140M ounces of gold sitting in the ground (4,475 tons) which is currently worth $164Bn at $1,170 per ounce yet ABX is valued at just $13.5Bn.  Of course, they have to extract that gold so they only make about $100 per ounce at the current prices but that's still $14Bn worth of gold profits to mine and, if gold goes up $100 more ($1,300) then ABX makes an extra $14Bn and another $14Bn at $1,400 and antoher $14Bn at $1,500 so ABX gives you a fantastic leveraged play on gold overall.

The 2017 $10 calls are $3.60 and you can sell the $17 calls for $1.30 for net $2.30 on the $7 spread and you can sell the $10 puts for $1.70 to knock the net down to 0.60 on the spread with an upside potential of $6.40 or 1,066% on cash and your worst case is owning ABX for net $10.60 (now $11.74 so 10% off the current price).