$25KP/JPH – As we have nasty restrictions in the $25KP (noted in the review) and as we got stung a few times this year (we were nearly flat a few months ago), I'm trying not to take anymore risks as I'd really like to get us to $35K by the end of the year as our goal is $50K by the end of next year – at which point we can open up our playing style a bit.  So, I'm looking for good earnings plays but it's too early to tell who's getting an overreaction.  Ideally, I want to find quick in and out plays, not long-term holds, since we have to BUY premium – and we hate to do that…

I was thinking USO and now that CNBC is saying $70 and GS is lowering their outlook – it may be time for us to call a bottom as those guys are idiots.  We did buy USO in the STP and, as I often say, the best time to follow us on a trade is AFTER we lose money and decide to DD or roll – that way, you usually start with a 20% better position than we did.  

That being the case, I'm thinking, for the $25KP 10 USO April $28/32 bull call spreads at $2.30 is nice as $2,300 returns $4,000 for a nice $1,700 win (73%).  Now, before I decide to commit that much, I need to consider what I'll do if oil does drop 10% to $72.  That would send USO down 10% to $27.50(ish) and we can figure the April $28 calls will drop to the price of the $31 calls ($1.85).  

Since $1.85 is about the net of our spread, I don't mind that and we'd roll to July.  What July calls are $1.85?  At the moment, it's the $32s and, since we're considering a situation in which USO drops $3, then probably we could roll to the July $29s about even.  We test that premise by checking the current price of the April $28s ($3.75) and the current price of the July $29s ($3.30) and then certainly our expectations are in-line with reality.  

So, now we have a spread where ANYTHING higher makes us money and flat makes us money and down 10% we don't mind because, in reality, we'd probably be willing to add to that spread with oil at $70 betting into summer driving.  In conclusion – it's a good idea for the $25KP.  

In the STP, we already bought the 2016 $28/April $30 bull call spreads for $2.50 and the 2016 $28s are still $4.50 – so miles to go before there's any pressure there.