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Top Trades for Thu, 11 Aug 2016 12:07 – KATE, SPWR and UNG

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Top Trades for Thu, 11 Aug 2016 12:07 – KATE, SPWR and UNG
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OK, I'm formatting this for the Top Trade People, who haven't had a pick in a week!  frown  

That one was INFN, DBA and SKX though so, you're welcome… 

Anyway, on to other stuff we like.  This morning, I featured KATE as a retail play I like and they popped 4% already but still playable and the same notes with adjusted prices are as follows:

Meanwhile, there are plenty of stock bargains to be had.  We'll be adding to Sunpower (SPWR) at $10 today, they took a viscious hit on earnings (down 30%).  KATE is also looking exciting at $17.85 as their 13.7% revenue growth wasn't enough to satisfy traders who bailed on the stock because same-store sales were "only" up 4% in this dismal retail environment.  

Meanwhile, with a net quarterly income of $26.8M in a slow quarter and a market cap of $2.2Bn, this is a reasonably-priced retail play at $17.85 but here's the difference at PSW – because we never pay retail for a stock!  Step one for us in entering a new position is Buying A Stock for a 15-20% Discount – part of our video educational series.  In the case of KATE, we can sell the 2018 $15 puts for $2.30, which nets us into the stock for $12.70, which is 29.3% below the current price.  

Selling a put contract obligates us to buy the stock for (in this case) $15 in exchange for the contract buyer paying us $2.50 up front.  They can never get that $2.30 back – all they can do is excercise the contract between now and January 2018, forcing us to buy 100 shares (per contract) of KATE for $15 ($1,500).  That's our entire obligation, to buy KATE for $2.85 (15.6%) below the current price but we also have the $2.50 cash – giving us the net 30% discount.  

If KATE never goes below $15, we simply keep the cash and don't end up owning the stock but we're more bullish than that and think the stock will go to $20 and, since we won't mind owning it for $15, we can treat the $2.30 we collected as free money and put it towards the following spread (and it will be official in the OOP):

  • Sell 10 KATE 2018 $15 puts for $2.30 ($2,300)
  • Buy 10 KATE 2018 $15 calls for $5.50 ($5,500) 
  • Sell 10 KATE 2018 $20 calls for $3.10 ($3,100)

As the net of the spread is only $2,200 and we collected $2,300 for selling the puts, we still have a $100 credit so our net cost of Kate, if assigned, would be $14.90/share – and now we're back over our 15% discount target (15.4%).  Our worst case is we own 1,000 shares of KATE for net $14,550 and our best case is KATE is over $20 and we make $5,000 plus the $450 we start with for a $5,450 gain on a -$450 cash outlay (1,211%?).  The ordinary margin requirement on the short puts is only $1,500 – so no burden there either! 

And now, let's talk about SPWR.  In the OOP, we have:

We still like them long-term but they took a hell of a hit but fortunately, we only sold 5 of the 2018 $13 puts, now $5 and we can sell the $10 puts instead for $2.90 so let's sell 10 of those in the OOP and NOT change the short $13 puts so we'll have 15 short puts for now and we'll see what happens but, hopefully, SPWR will go up and we'll collect on all.  If not, we'll stop out of the 5 short $13s by $6, which would make it an even roll.  Also, since the 2018 $10 calls are $3.35 and the $8 calls are only $4.15, it would be irresponsible not to roll $2 lower for net 0.80 so let's do that too.  

For the Top Traders, you missed our too early entry into SPWR and now, as a new trade, I like:

  • Sell 10 SPWR 2018 $10 puts for $2.90 ($2,900) 
  • Buy 10 SPWR 2018 $8 calls for $4.15 ($4,150)
  • Sell 10 SPWR 2018 $13 calls for $2.25 ($2,250) 

That's a $1,000 net credit on the $5,000 spread so potential for a $6,000 gain (+500%) in 16 months if SPWR is back over $13 – not too ambitious.  Worst case is you own 1,000 shares for net $9 ($9,000).  

And, finally, who can resist UNG when it's cheap?  

Here we want to take a 1/2 or 1/4 position as it could come all the way back down (doubtful).  

  • Sell 10 UNG 2018 $7 puts for $1.20 ($1,200)
  • Buy 30 UNG 2018 $8 calls for $1.60 ($4,800)
  • Sell 30 UNG 2018 $10 calls for $1.00 ($3,000)

The net cost of this trade is $600 for 30 $2 spreads worth up to $6,000 so $5,400 (900%) profit potential if UNG is over $10 in Jan 2018, as we expect it will be.  Worst case is it's below $7 and you end up owning 1,000 shares at net $7.60 ($7,600) and you'll be well-hedged against natural gas price increases for the rest of your life!