General Motors (GM) MAKES $6 per share and their shares are $34. That's infinity times what TSLA makes and 3 times what they TSLA wishes it would make and the stock is about 1/10th the price yet GM LOST 3.3% yesterday while TSLA gained 7% – this is MADNESS!
Oh, and I forgot to mention that GM also pays you a 4.3% ($1.52) dividend while you own their fine stock. GM is also makes the new Chevy Bolt (the Volt is their old model), which is essentially everything the Tesla Model 3 is supposed to be only the Bolt is already shipping and GM already makes 10M cars a year, 100 TIMES more cars than TSLA makes. That's current, proven capacity – not fantasy capacity.
The Bolt is priced at $37,000 WITHOUT the rebate that TSLA includes in their "starting price" and, with the rebate, the net on a Bolt can be less than $30,000 – about 20% cheaper than the non-existent Model 3. Even worse for Tesla, the Bolt gets 238 miles of range and they didn't have to spend $2Bn building a "GigaFactory" to do it.
If GM can buy, off the shelf, batteries that are as good as the ones Tesla HOPES to make in the future – what's the value of their new battery factory? Come on, it's not a brain-teaser – the factory is worth NOTHING – it's a pointless waste of money that was only and excuse for Musk to raise another $2Bn from investors to cover the losses at TSLA. Batteries are a readily available, low-margin commodity and having their own battery factory is nothing more than an expensive distraction for Tesla – one of many.
Back in February, we made great money shorting TSLA when they popped to $280 and we shorted them again at $280 last week and yesterday we adjusted our April play to a June $300 short, so we're bearish into earnings but, rather than argue Tesla valuations with hundreds of angry fans all day – I'll simply do this. I will bet you that this $5,000 GM trade makes more money than any bullish TSLA trade over the next two years:
- Sell 10 GM 2019 $32 puts for $4.25 ($4,250)
- Buy 25 GM 2019 $28 calls for $7.25 ($18,125)
- Sell 25 GM 2019 $35 calls for $3.60 ($9,000)
The net cash outlay of that trade is just $4,875 and you are obligated to buy 1,000 shares of GM at $32 ($32,000) and the ordinary margin on that is $4,758 but, as long as you'd REALLY like to own GM for the long haul – it's not much of a penalty – even if the trade doesn't work out.
Meanwhile, if the trade does work out, you will make 25 contracts x 100 options per contract x $7 (the net of the spread) = $17,500 for a net $12,625 profit (258%) if GM is over $35 (now $34.17) in January of 2019. We will add this one to our Options Opportunity Portfolio as well as our Long-Term Portfolio (maybe 3x) and track it over time.