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Top Trades for Tue, 22 Nov 2016 13:35 – CLF

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Top Trades for Tue, 22 Nov 2016 13:35 – CLF
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CNBC/Jabob – They love whatever is winning at the moment.

Markets/Japar – I don't see how this can keep going on real volume but the question is when will we see real volume again?   See, if you exchange 1.5Bn shares (avg volume) on the S&P at a $50 average, you need $75Bn in daily transactions and, if the S&P goes up to $55 but the volume drops to 1Bn, you only need $55Bn in transactions and people can "afford" to pay more but, if at $55, you go back to 1.5Bn shares – now you need to actually have $82.5Bn for transactions and, if that money hasn't actually been created to support the higher stock prices – you'll find out pretty quickly because either the volume or price have to go down.

ABX/Tangled – Sure, we want to be bullish anyway so worst case is ABX drops $3 (20%) and you rooll the $13 calls ($5.20) to the $8 calls ($8.10) for maybe $2.50 and then sell the $15 calls ($4.15) for maybe $3 and then you net into the $10/17 spread for about $2.75.  Now, wouldn't you love to be in the $10/17 spread for $2.75?  That's the worst case taking a chance.

CLF/Maya – Damn, when you put it that way, it's hard to turn down, right?  Actually, in the LTP, our position is 30 long 2019 $4 calls, now $5 (up 100%) and we sold 35 2018 $4 puts for $2.80, now 0.48 and this net $2,300  credit spread is now worth about $11,500 after a wild ride so let's not "adjust" it but take it off the table and make a new trade on CLF for the LTP, which will be:

  • Sell 20 CLF 2019 $7 puts for $2.25 ($4,500) 
  • Buy 40 CLF 2019 $5 calls at $4.60 ($18,400)
  • Sell 40 CLF 2019 $10 calls for $2.55 ($10,200)
  • Sell 10 CLF Jan $8 calls for $1.13 ($1,130) 

So we're cashing in $11,500 and keeping the original $2,300 credit for a $13,800 profit and now we're putting $2,570 back to work with a $17,430 upside at $10 and we can sell more short calls along the way.  

Jan is just a 60-day sale out of 787 days to long expiration so not even 10% and on just a 1/4 sale we're pulling down $1,130 – easy $10,000 of spare change in our pocket every couple of months is a Do Your Own Dividend kind of stock and, with over $11,000 in profits safely in our pocket, there's nothing scary about potentially being assigned 2,000 shares for $7 ($1,400).

This is a good nutshell example of how our tree-planting system works.  This is year 3 of a trade we initiated with no money down, agreeing to buy $12,000 of CLF and now we've got $10,000 in our pockets, a slightly more aggressive trade (two years to get from $8 to $10) and a $500 monthly income.  Now that's INVESTING!