Archive for 2005

Bush Speaks!

Our President is telling us what a great job he is doing.

He got a little carries away with all the red state applause he was getting and started promising them he was going to crack down on underfunded pensions.

Look out below at GM, the Airlines and all the other guys I talked about the last time we visited that topic.

As bush speaks the dollar is dropping against the Euro and gold is shooting up and all the indexes are heading back down.

Interest rates are up and oil is back above $60 so the market is getting pummeled anyway, Bush needs to pick a better ticker backdrop when he talks about the economy.

There is nothing constructive in this speech but nothing so damaging that it should spook the markets but down they go. I can understand the DOW with all the pension laden stocks but not the other indexes.

On the brite side, this will give us an immediate opportunity to test 10,800, 2,250, and 1,250 on the major indexes – where we are right now!

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BTW

Guidant hanging at $67 means people don’t actually believe that BSX has that kind of money… I think we will see inverse moves between the two until the deal is clarified.

Trade of the Day – BSX looked scary for a while but is now behaving rationally.

FRK is consolidating here but may not move again until option expiration on the 16th.

GG is up 2.4% since 11:30 recommendation! MRB up 7% so far…

Still not called away on LVS, will follow with trailing .40 stop now.

PLAY is moving up on a terrible day for a stealth attack at the 50 dma of $24.70.

WAG – ok who was worried when it was down .75 today? Hands? Yeah, me too! I take great pride in my Trade of the Day’s and I don’t even like it if they even behave just a little off.

The calls are currently in the red so I still need a couple of good days.

Almost time to go back to HD, might be able to catch it at $40.

I hope everyone got in on that RIMM put today! The $65 put is up 10% so far and the $70 is up 14% (good example of how you make more by buying fewer, more expensive calls). Remember, 10% in a day
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Tumultuous Tuesday

Well, we have a real tempest in a teacup today!

Fed days are often stock market poison but, after 14 rounds of hikes slamming the markets, Rocky may finally be ready to come off the ropes…

Just like the final round in Rocky II (because in Rocky I we were all expecting him to win), it could go either way and we won’t know until 2:20 when the markets either turn up or down, likely reversing whatever they do prior to that time.

The Asian markets are up 100+ pts (as usual) while Europe is more worried about our Fed and is trading down slightly.

Oil is dropping just a bit as OPEC made an early announcement that they will not be cutting production (what a surprise, they will keep selling as much oil as possible for $67 a barrel – gee I’m so surprised). I can scare my little girl by sneaking up behind her 3 or 4 times and still get most of my shriek premium but by the 5th or 6th time, that premium really starts to diminish. OPEC has kids too and they know there is only so long that $25 per barrel will be paid to cover jitters before people realize the monsters in the closet may just be a pile of coats.

World jitters are certainly being reflected in the POG (price of gold) as it flew up to $570 in Dubai but don’t buy yet as the Europeans have brought it back down to $565. The raise will be up to the Americans this morning and I think they just might ahead of a State of the Union message that has people very nervous. Unless the President is willing to tell the people that we will have to suck it up and take some painful steps to get the country back on track (pause for laughter) then there is a serious danger that the world investors will turn their backs on whatever dog and pony show he does try to trot out.

If gold can retake $570 then our gold plays are on. ABX is already flying in the pre-market but you might be able to catch BVN first thing. NAK and MRB don’t really trade pre-market and NAK certainly has room to grow for the next 5 years or so. Add EGO as another little company that could but BVN and NAK…
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Zero Hedge

Americans' Economic Hope Has Collapsed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Which came first, the confidence or the stock market rally?

One thing is for sure, the crash in stocks in December has crushed the hope of Americans that their economic future is going to be better under President Trump.

Overall confidence dipped to 58.1 - a 4-month low, but, U.S. consumers this month were the most downbeat on the economy since November 2016, a third straight drop after expectations reached a 16-year high just three months earlier, as the partial government shutdown wears on toward a fourth week.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Triple Breakout Test In Play For S&P 500!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the rally of late about to run out of steam or is a major breakout about to take place in the S&P 500? What happens at current prices should go a long way in determining this question.

This chart looks at the equal weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) on a daily basis over the past 15-months.

The rally from the lows on Christmas Eve has RSP testing the top of a newly formed falling channel while testing the underneath side of the 2018 trading range and its falling 50-day moving average at (1).

At this time RPS is facing a triple resistance test. Wil...



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Phil's Favorites

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

 

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

Courtesy of Victoria Honeyman, University of Leeds

As the clock ticks down to March 29 2019, all of the political manoeuvring, negotiating, arguing and fighting is coming to a peak. In the two and a half years since the 2016 EU referendum, views on both sides have hardened and agreement still seems as far away as it was the day after the referendum.

With Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement disliked by all sides, and voted down by an unprecedented majority in the House of Commons, everyone is wondering what can and should be done next?

...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto-Bubble: Will Bitcoin Bottom In February Or Has It Already?

Courtesy of Michelle Jones via ValueWalk.com

The new year has been relatively good for the price of bitcoin after a spectacular collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble in 2018. It’s up notably since the middle of December and traded around the psychological level of $4,000... so is this a sign that the crypto market is about to recover?

Of course, it depends on who you ask, but one analyst discovered a pattern which might point to a bottom next month.

A year after the cryptocurrency bubble popped

CCN...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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