Archive for February, 2006

Wednesday Wrap-Up

Wheee! That was a good one…

The indexes all came out of the box running and kept up all day, even the Nasdaq contributed and that was a great accomplishment with Intel doing its best to drag it down with a 2.3% loss on a downgrade. Add the fact that oil stocks were down close to 2% on the average and today’s gains are even more impressive!

Oil really cracked me up today, finishing at $61.05 right at the last minute, as if someone was trying to make a point. The point was lost in the after hours trading where the price quickly dropped down to $60.80, just a tick under a $2 loss for the day.

Gold finished up but the gold stocks weren’t really buying it. Like I said, $565 before anyone will take it seriously again. Copper stocks are also getting hammered, even though the price of copper is holding steady at $220ish. In both these groups I will be excited to buy if they pull back another 10%.

The home group didn’t seem to want to wait to jump up and fortunes were made on our trades of the day (I love it when that happens!). Expectations are now very low for oil inventories so it will take a significant build well above 2M barrels to push these stocks down further.

BTW – Anyone who thinks that this Donald and Martha thing isn’t staged for the media is just too naive to live! His show is out next week, her earnings were out this week, she was talking to Newsweek promoting something when she started it. I’ll take wagers that she shows up as a guest on his show this season and they “make up.” Meanwhile MSO is up 14% today!

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GOOG could not get going as it is losing a complicated court case in which it violated (obviously, one would think) the copyrighted images of a pornmonger. The fact that Google is fighting this case, rather than just paying a fine and agreeing not to show their images, indicates how important porn is to Google. This one will not go away so I’m going away from the idea of buying Google. BIDU also suffered a 50% pullback from the open which didn’t help.

CME had a great day, up $10.42 (2.5%). They are officially no longer tied to Google.

TASR dropped to $9.50 but…
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Wednesday Morning

Europe is flat and Asia is flat to down, the Global markets are pretty much looking to us for direction (talk about the blind leading the blind!). We should be able to recover most of yesterday’s drop so it will be a nice day for some day trading but please take those profits off the table!!!!

The big question of the day is will oil break back below $62 (yes) but I expect it to hold $61. Right now traders are looking for any excuse to keep the prices up and there is no shortage of jitters to point to. Remember, oil pricing is futures so it is always sentiment vs. reality but hopefully tomorrow’s inventory (delayed by holiday) report will serve up a heaping dose of reality for that market.

The big news of today is the CPI which will be critical to a data driven Fed. Unfortunately, in an effort to be more clear, Bernanke has caused more confusion as there is way too much data to try to use any one piece to figure out the Fed. Although the “core” CPI remains a well-behaved .2%, if you include energy you get .7%, quite a bit higher than expected. This means that stocks will have to shrug off oil prices to make real gains today.

Housing numbers should be OK this year, so we’ll take another look at the builders and suppliers.

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GOOG may be moving back up thanks to BIDU’s great numbers. I like the look of buying the Jun $380s for $31 and hoping I’m right enough to sell the $400s for $10.

TASR got spanked on expected low earnings. Hopefully this will be the last quarter severely impacted by legal costs and they will give us another buy opportunity around $8.50.

BTU ran into the 5% rule yesterday and should pull back. I am tempted to take the $95 puts for $3.20 ahead of inventory as just last Wednesday, the stock was at $85. Gotta use the Valero Rule here. Also, keep your eye on ACI which is a trading pair.

GRMN knocked the cover off the ball with earnings. Too late for this one as it will probably open at an all-time high. COBR has been making great progress in GPS and dominates the radar space already so I like owning this non-optioned stock for $11.88 into tomorrow’s earnings.

I mentioned in comments…
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Tuesday Wrap-Up

Greenspan’s last FOMC minutes were released for dissection today and, although it didn’t say anything new, there was a hint of inflation but a good general report card on the economy but the possibility of more tightening won out and the markets gave up all hope after 2 pm.

It may not seem like much but, after falling from $68 on 2/1 to $59 in 10 sessions this month, oil was having a lot of trouble breaking back over $61 today. The volatility will probably continue until the 3/6 UN Security Council meeting (not that that will resolve anything but it will give everyone something new to talk about).

My Friday morning call for getting out was well timed and today was a good day to watch how everyone behaved so I’ve lined up a few new positions I feel comfortable with but I stress that it is still time for mostly cash until we get a confirmed change of direction.

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Although we should be out of everything, leftover picks that are working on a bad day like today include: BA, JNJ, ACI, TOTD IMAX, TASR. ACI, CCE (kill that one), HD and SHFL.

Back on 2/9 I said “I hate to turn on SNE after making so much money on it last month but, come on, 50% since Nov. on one good quarter? If the Nasdaq falls and Apple doesn’t recover the Jul $45 puts look good at $2.30.” Well, aren’t I clever! (pat pat) Now we need to think of repercussionsssions for the gaming sector including GME, ATVI, THQI , ERTS…?

AQNT is just about going down after posting a “disappointing” 50% increase in Q4 earnings and revenues. You just can’t make some people happy I guess but even if growth slows down to 25%, this stock is still underpriced. We are still way above the 200 dma of $21 and the recent low of $23.25 so I’ll wait a bit but it will be a buy on any turn in tech, especially media.

Why buy the miners when you can buy the people who make their tools? You know, the ones they break every five minutes!? JOYG has been on a tear through this whole mining bull run but it seems very comfortable at $55. I like the income play on this one by taking the Jan $45s for $16.50 and selling the Mar $55s for
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Tuesday Morning

What a difference a day makes!

We averted what would have been a disaster yesterday because our markets were closed while the rest of the world took a bath on worries over Iran, Nigeria, global slowdown, global expansion… you know, the usual.

Turns out things aren’t as bad as they thought yesterday so oil is back at $61.50 after spiking over $62 and the international markets are more than making up for yesterday’s losses led by the Nikkei with a spectacular 450 point jump, more than enough to erase yesterday’s 250 point loss (how’s that for exciting?). Tokyo is still far below its 16,777 high but a couple of more days like today and we’ll punch right through that.

Gold is sticking to the $550 mark so those stocks should rebound a bit but I’m not playing them until there is a confirmed move one way or the other.

With oil and Asia up and gold strong, everything old is new again today and we can expect investors to plow money into whatever worked last year but I think that’s a mistake. In the grand scheme of Global Rotation we have been tracking, the 2005 investment group has been steadily declining and this may be no more than a dead group bounce.

The reality that is hitting the oil patch this week is that even actual supply disruptions (I told you they would have to raise the stakes to move oil) are not going to push oil significantly higher because we just do not need any more oil right now!

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?%24wtic

This is not the chart of a recovery, simply a small test of the 200 dma and 40 wma spurred on by (very coincidental) news. Oil will have to break $63 on volume to really be considered to be on the rebound and any drop back below $60.50 would be a major problem for the sector.

If oil companies like SUN, SU, XTO, HAL and SLB don’t move up close to 2% today, then you can be reasonably certain that this “rally” will be short lived and give us another great shorting opportunity very soon.

Today is a good day to watch from the sidelines unless we get some technical breakthroughs like Nas 2,300, S&P 1,300 and Dow 12,000 (I doubt it) but watch out if this rally is mainly oil based, that is no foundation to…
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Weekly Wrap-Up

On the whole, today was not a bad day for the markets.

They held up rather well considering the PPI was a very inflationary 3%+, indicating more Fed tightening ahead.

Oil did not break over $60, that’s important, but we now have a clear indication that Opec, Venezuela and Nigeria are willing to do whatever it takes to support $60 oil. Again though, without actual production cuts or consumption increases (maybe a “Got Oil” campaign) there will be no denying the fundamental glut on the market.

Gold seemed to just be reacting to the heightened activity in and around the oil producers, whether engineered or not gold traders like to hoard at any sign of trouble.

I am very glad I cashed out early as the action on most stocks was miserable but let’s review and see how we did…

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ACI was indeed a great day trade! I picked up the $75s for .20 at the open and sold an hour later for .60 for a nice triple. As expected, they did indeed make a better move than BTU.

AMAT is going well so far, the $20 puts went out for .55 (50% profit) and the March $20s are only down .45 with a month to go. If it goes to $19.25 and bounces, I’m going to double up my calls.

AMZN held up well against weak tech.

ATYT weirdly sold off at 3pm, so I bought it.

BA had a great day against a weak market, up another .5%. 5 more days like that and we are in the money on our puts!

Wednesday TOTD BIIB Apr $45s are now $4.50, up 33%. We lost .50 on the put so really a 25% gain so far (but I slept better having the put). If I remember I think I will say buy more next week.

BUD needs the market to agree with it, it is just not going to go up by itself.

CCE just never did what we wanted it to but the Mar $20 calls are still .35 (down 30%). I’m tempted to double down but not until I really go over my initial assumptions.

CBH is back to where we wanted to enter the June $30s ($3), just a little further, come to poppa… Patience is a major virtue when buying options!

Last Friday I said “CSCO still can’t break $20, no buying until
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Friday Morning

Cash out today! I don’t care how good the market looks, cash out today, at least 75%. It’s a long weekend and the oil barrons are getting desperate so anything can happen. If we are in full rally mode there will be hundreds of things to buy with our cash. If not, there will be hundreds of excellent shorts. It looks like we are in full blown global rotation as Asia is down and Europe is flat, this could lead to another great day today, especially as Euro dollars come in at the end of day. The Japanese market plunged today because their economy is growing at 5.5%. Why? The same silly reason we react badly to good news – fear of Fed tightening!!! Dell is going to cause some pain for the Nasdaq but no index is close to any technical worries. Oil, on the other hand, is flying up over $59 as Venezuela takes a turn in the spotlight, calling for production cuts at the next OPEC meeting. The French are even playing the game now, trying to bail out TOT by rattling their plumes at Iran. I really hope everyone listened to me and dumped the oil puts yesterday morning! Of course the Friday rule is in effect today (never short oil on Friday) so we watch and wait. The reality is that there is still a huge glut and these countries will not stick to production cuts as long as they can get more than $50 a barrel but, in the short term, threats work. ===================================== SIRI had better earnings and bigger losses than expected but I think they’ll be forgiven as they added over 1.1M subscribers in the quarter while keeping churn (lost subscribers) down to 1.5% vs. XM’s 1.8%. Subscriber acquisition costs are down 17% vs. XMs up 36%. In short, Sirius is winning! BA has gone flat into options but my favorite suppliers AIR, TIE, BEAV and ATI have all had a great week so I am very confident that it is consolidating for a power move up. The Mar $75s are a double at .75 but I’m buying more. If BA breaks $75 next week, all the suppliers are a buy as well. JNJ Mar $60s are a bargain at .60. If the stock can’t hold $59, get out but if it breaks above the 50 dma of $60, it should be…
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Thursday Wrap-Up

WooEee! What a day.

Can’t believe I missed it – days like this make me want to do this full time!

Oil was as good on the upside today as it was on the downside all week, so glad we got out of those things….

The markets are now in great position for a huge run, especially with that huge finish that just shattered resistance. Hopefully Dell’s so so outlook won’t turn people off tomorrow but I don’t care – because I did a Google spread!!!

Yesterday I mentioned the spread of the $350 calls and the $340 puts vs. the fact that “they” couldn’t hold the stock right at $345 for 2 more days. Looks like I hit that with a fat $24 gain on the day. My $2.50 $350 calls finished the day at $16.90 (unfortunately I lost $3.50 on the puts as I was away and didn’t have a sell stop) for a nice $400% day gain!!!

So imagine how happy I was to come home to that…

Anyway, very psyched about tomorrow, hopefully oil will pull back again but if it goes up – we’ll do that. Bernanke made it as clear as a Fed chief can make something that more rate hikes lie ahead so we have to throw continued dollar strength into the mix.

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MER was a perfect call for the morning, the Mar $75s gained .80 (40%) today.

AAPL tacked on another $1.35 and we are lovin’ those Jan $65s!

GM did gain 1.3% but I still think its a bad company so I’m ignoring the technicals and staying on the side until it tests $21.50 again.

EDS had a volitile week and the Jan ’08 $30s are still a good deal at $2.40 but wait for a possible option related pullback today. I would take the March $25s if they go below $1.40.

MCD looks ready to pull back but will be a strong buy if it holds the 50 dma of $35.

DOW has really been en fuego since our 2/8 pick. Look to take your massive profits and run if it has trouble at the 200 dma of $44.25. We can always reenter with $45s if it breaks up but this is a 250% gain on the March $40s so no reason to leave it out there!

I’m waiting on LVS as the puts are way…
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Wednesday Wrap-Up

Another fun day to short oil!

I may have to add an Amex rule to the Valero rule… Actually, it’s just because, at this exact moment in time, the Amex is resting on critical resistance which makes it the best indicator.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&s=%5EXAX&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=&c=%5EGSPC&c=%5EIXIC&c=%5EDJI

Notice how the Amex shot up at the open and was followed by the other indices 40 minutes later. By then it was heading down, not liking what Bernanke was saying and the other indices followed. When Bernanke finished speaking around 12:45, the other indices shot right up but Amex didn’t make a move until closer to 2pm. By following this you missed little and got a very solid confirmation with plenty of time to act.

Metals were down again today on dollar strength but that only went about 1/3 of the way to explaining the $2 drop in oil today, all the way down below $58!

HPQ had good earnings today so tech should do well tomorrow. A nice tech rally tomorrow could be just what we need to get over those nasty technicals.

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Our Tuesday oil puts proved you can go back to the well again with spectacular drops (and they were nice enough to open positive too!). This is why I like to cash out, sometimes they run back up and you can go in again… Also, with options near expiration, they are repriced every day so you can’t count on holding value overnight. SLB is a great example as it gapped up this morning before falling another $5.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SLB&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

XOM was a huge disappointment but HAL made us a nice triple during the day. XOM is tops on my list to short tomorrow with the $60 puts at just .65. It even makes a nice spread for $1.05.

Using the Valero Rule, I entered a lot of oil puts around 12 and mentioned it in this morning’s comments – that was really better than entering in the morning!

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ANF never got that low, perhaps their shareholders are smarter than I gave them credit for. It did drop $2 but recovered nicely so we’ll give it a few days.

CBH shot up today and the June $30s rocketed to $4.30 (I missed it, too busy with oil).

AMAT’s earnings were good, not great so we have to wait for guidance. With luck we can get some money back on the puts in tomorrow’s…
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Thursday Morning

Today will be a great example of why you shouldn’t hold current oil options overnight! BHI had very good earnings and if that doesn’t lift the service sector nothing will! This is one of those typical engineered reverses where analysts start coming out bullish on oil in order to stop a slide. The inventory numbers were so atrocious for oil bulls that I very much doubt they can keep it over $58. If we are lucky, we will get a morning like yesterday where suckers come in and buy so we can move in for the kill when Valero gives us the signal. Watch SLB and HAL for confirmation in addition to the usual Rule indices. Hopefully we will have a Nasdaq led rally today, that would be ideal. HP’s earnings were great and, if that doesn’t lift tech, nothing will. Backing that up with a nice Dell report tonight and we could have a heck of a close to the week. Dell’s Mar $32.50 for .80 are a nice play. Today is a great day to get into our tech positions in general but don’t overcommit into the weekend, there are lots of quick 20%+ trades on our list, it will be nice to wake up Tuesday (no market Monday) with cash after the long weekend so we can assess the situation! ====================================== I have to leave this morning so not much to say but a few quickies: MER is lagging the other financial and has a great deal with Black Rock so I really like the Mar $75s for $2. XMSR is looking like a disaster. Will break the 5% rule today. Below $23, there will be little support to $20 and the Mar $22.50 puts are just $1 but not unless the stock moves strongly below $23. SIRI Mar $6s are way too cheap at .40 but a huge gamble. XMSR’s troubles were caused by all the money they had to spend to fend off Sirius’s market gains. AMZN may be coming out of its depressive phase so the Jan $35s are nice for $8 if you sell the Mar $40s for $1 (13%). You can just buy the Mar $40s but this is a dangerous stock. DCX’s sound good but were actually bad. This would be a great opportunity but I think the Europeans will be all over this before our markets open. GM should get…
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What Happens in Vegas…

Mike asked in the comments about LVS and we’ve talked about it often enough that I thought I’d deal with it here.

The owners (90% Shelly) have announced they are going to sell 55M shares through GS. Although the company had a .04 earnings beat, so did all of Las Vegas so nobody here is doing any particular bang-up job. Granted the Macao revenues were through the roof, but they won’t go up 68% every quarter.

Also, much of the company’s value hinges on prospects of casino building, notably in Macao but, in the conference call, Bill Weidner said they “completed a strategic refinancing and entered the market to secure a $2.5 billion credit facility to support our development plans in Macao as we lead the historic effort to create Asia’s Las Vegas.” That sounds great until you found out that they lost their Singapore development partner and are one of 4 casino builders that are bidding on the project (and the only one without a building partner and one of 2 that haven’t got a Chinese partner).

This was obvious to after hour traders on Tuesday night who dropped the stock to $48 (5%) in after hours trading where it opened on Wednesday morning. Then, a miracle happened, the stock flew up to $52 yesterday on huge (for this stock) volume (5M shares).

Now I’m not saying this stock is being manipulated (’cause that would be wrong) but yesterday’s run netted the shareholder’s 220M in potential profits on the 55M shares that are going to be sold, that’s exactly the total value of all shares transacted yesterday! What a coincidence!!!

Why would anyone bother (theoretically because, of course, no one would do this) buying $220M worth of stock to make $220M? Well because the $220M in profit is based on a very tenuous value of 55M shares of paper that is only worth what it is printed on unless someone else wants to buy it.

Of course you don’t actually have to buy all $220M worth of stock to get the affect. Between 9:30 and 10am 2M shares were transacted for $100M, driving the stock from $48 to $50. The stock then trended down until 1pm when an amazing sudden interest developed and another 750,000 shares were purchased with abandon, driving the stock up another $2.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LVS&t=1d

55M shares represents 45 days of average volume that these guys are…
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Zero Hedge

For The First Time Since The Crisis, Companies Spent More On Buybacks And Dividends Than They Earned...

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

It will hardly come as a surprise to many, but according to the latest cash flow analysis from Goldman Sachs, 2018 was a record year for S&P 500 cash spending: not only did aggregate spending on capex, R&D, cash acquisitions, dividends, and share repurchases rose by 25% to $2.8 trillion, "the fastest year/year growth in 30 years"...

...



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Phil's Favorites

Fed's Balance Sheet Spikes by $253 Billion, Now Topping $4 Trillion

Courtesy of Pam Martens

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: October 18, 2019 ~

Shhh! Don’t tell Congress that the Federal Reserve is back to electronically creating money out of thin air to throw at a liquidity problem (of an, as yet, undetermined origin) on Wall Street. And be sure not to mention that the Fed’s balance sheet has shot up in a period of just 42 days by $253 billion. And, of course, don’t remind Congress that before the last Wall Street crisis was over the Fed had secretly, with no oversight from Congress, piled up ...



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Insider Scoop

48 Biggest Movers From Yesterday

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Hepion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: HEPA) shares climbed 43.2% to close at $3.58 on Thursday after the company announced the publication of a research article, "A Pan-Cyclophilin Inhibitor, CRV431, Decreases Fibrosis and Tumor Development in Chronic Liver Disease Models," in the peer-reviewed Journal of Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.
  • Synthesis Energy Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: SES) rose 26.9% to close at $9.20 after surging 12.24% on Wednesday.
  • Assembly Biosciences, Inc...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bank Index Breakout? Stock Market Bulls Sure Hope So

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One of the most important sectors of the stock market is the banking industry and bank stocks.

When the banks are healthy, the economy is likely doing well. And when bank stocks are participating in a market rally, then it bodes well for the broader stock market.

In today’s chart, we look at the Bank Index (BKX).

As you can see, the banks have been in a falling channel for the past 20 months. As well, the banks have been lagging the broader market during this time as well – see the Ratio in the bottom half of the chart above.

That said, th...



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The Technical Traders

Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity - What Does It Mean?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Recent rotation in multiple foreign currencies hints at the fact that a new stage of the “Capital Shift” process is taking place and that skilled technical investors need to pay very close attention to how these currencies continue to react over the next 3 to 6+ months.  In the recent past, most of the world’s foreign currencies were declining in value while the US Dollar continued to strengthen.  In fact, we authored many research articles about these trends and how weakness in foreign currencies will drive new foreign investment into the US stock markets for two simple reasons; strength and security. 

Now that a few of the world’s most ...



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Chart School

Review of Andrew CardWell RSI with Wyckoff price waves

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

RSI measures relative strength of price action of a set period versus prior set periods. It helps review the price swings or waves, the power of each price thrust into new ground, or lack of it. Price thrust like many things relies on energy, and energy is not a constant, it has a birth, a life and a death and relative strength helps us see that cycle. 

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Digital Currencies

Zuck Delays Libra Launch Date Due To Issues "Sensitive To Society"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Facebook is taking a much more careful approach to Libra than its previous projects, CEO Mark Zuckerberg has confirmed. 

“Obviously we want to move forward at some point soon [and] not have this take many years to roll out,” he said. “But ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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