Archive for November, 2006

Thursday Wrap-Up

Well I said we could go anywhere today and we ended up nowhere!

We did go everywhere though – we were up and down and up and down and up again (but then kind of down at the end) – can you possibly have a more exciting 6 and a half hours where nothing actually happens?

The Dow blah blah blay, the S&P blah blah blah, the Nasdaq blah blah blah - come on folks, nothing happened, what is there to say?

I’m a little annoyed because it’s 9:30 and I have Mad Money on the TV as I write this and you would think something unbelievably amazing happened today and at this point I have to throw the churning flag on Mr. Cramer.

Has this guy ever advised people not to trade – ever?  I called for mostly cash last Wednesday (all last week actually) and I am so not sorry!  Reading the comments today I would bet a lot of real people (not the crazed TV call-in fans) wish they had taken the week off as well…

This morning I said “Very tight stops on calls today as any indication of consumer weakness can really spook the markets…  If the dollar goes below 83, we are in BIG TROUBLE so I really have no desire to do anything other than manage my existing positions and wind down my month, something I’m sure many fund managers will be doing today as well!

Yet I read the comments and everyone is trading like crazy…

I’m not saying everyone should just do what I say (please, please never do that!) but it would make me feel better if SOMEONE took my advice as I do tend to make pretty good macro calls.

[Henry Paulson]

Speaking of macro calls everyone will ignore:

 The Wall Street Journal (who is quoting my views on the dollar anyway) now claim that Paulson is in my Inflation Nation Camp!

I think the little sketch they do of you in the WSJ says a lot about you and Paulson’s looks like he’s about to foreclose on Jimmy Stewart’s bank…

Oil pulled off a close over our $63.09 mark despite a massive sell-off at the close (something I expected yesterday but didn’t get).  It was enough to make me glad I held my puts, although $63.75 at 2:15 probably would have had me throwing in the towel had I been around to watch it!…
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Thrill a Minute Thursday

We could go anywhere today!

Personal income is up .4%, personal spending is up .2% but people aren’t spending it at Wal-Mart, who gave us some pretty lame numbers along with several other big retailers.

Very tight stops on calls today as any indication of consumer weakness can really spook the markets.

Asia had another great day with both the Nikkei and the Hang Seng adding on a point.  India’s GDP came in at 9.2%, well over expectations of 8.9% - this is another billion person economy that is kicking our butts!

Also kicking our economic booty is our old owners, England!  It now costs you almost $2 to buy a British pound (England still uses their own currency extensively), which is up from $1.40 on my last trip just 2 years ago!

Another reason Europe is flying is that it looks unlikely that Turkey will join the EU and drag them down in the near future.  Much like the integration of East Germany was very painful, Turkey just does not have their economic house in good enough order to join the team.

Let’s check our levels very carefully:

  • Dow MUST hold 12,200 and needs 12,300 to be taken seriously
    • Transports can NOT go below 2,650
  • S&P MUST break and hold 1,400
  • NYSE MUST hold 8,900 but needs 9,000 to impress
  • Nasdaq needs to get back over 2,450 fast!
    • SOX MUST retake 480 and 490 is no big deal 

Oil is going to test $63 at the open and yesterday’s move was independent of the dollar so we should be very, very afraid if it goes up from here ($62.50).  This contract was at $63.09 back on 11/10, when we were still looking at the December contract, and it fell back $6 from that peak a week later so that’s the new high they will be looking to break.

Gold will test $650 today if our markets look weak and NEM is always a good way to play this with the $47.50s just .45 but don’t be greedy! 

If the dollar goes below 83, we are in BIG TROUBLE so I really have no desire to do anything other than manage my existing positions and wind down my month, something I’m sure many fund managers will be doing today as well!

=================================== 

It’s time to put our money in foreign banks before
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Wednesday Wrap-Up

Ha – take that bears!

We are certainly back to the Meatball Market Philosophy where bad news “Just Doesn’t Matter!

Like I said this morning, from this altitude (Dow 12,000+) all the naysayers just look like little ants down on the ground.  Can we hold this altitude?  That will be the trick of the week now that we have made a critical 50% retracement of our drop from last week’s highs.

I don’t have to talk about the dollar anymore as Gary Dorsch has written the definitive article on the subject, neatly recapping everything we’ve been talking about in one massive article.  My thanks to Mike_C for posting this one in comments.

The best summary chart of the bunch is this one, which I call “The Fed stops hiking and the dollar starts crashing:

Of course you can also mirror this chart with the US deficit chart that was under control under Clinton (see steady rise of dollar, coupled with very low oil prices) and quickly turned into a nightmare under Bush II. 

 exchange rates

Our markets are much less impressive to foreign investors than they are to us as they look at the Dow in their own currencies, which have appreciated faster than our markets have kept up.

 

I’m sorry I couldn’t find a more up to date one (perhaps one our readers is a great chartist and could bring this forward) but you get the idea – the dollar has lost 10% against global currencies this year and is down 13% against the Euro in particular.

So your stock being up 13% this year isn’t impressing anyone who isn’t holding dollars in their savings account and shouldn’t impress you either as we need that 13% to keep up with the Joneses or whatever common European and Asian surnames there are.

Finally I’m starting to see a justification for energy stocks!  The multinationals collect global currency and deserve a higher valuation than those companies that get paid in sad little American dollars.  Here’s XOM vs the ten-year treasury note.

So the markets are not actually in orbit – its just that investors (us!) are tripping and THINK we are in orbit – kind of like when you experience some massive physical trauma and get that feeling of floating away from your body… 

DO NOT GO INTO THE LIGHT!!! 

Like I said this morning, I hate to…
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Recovery Wednesday?

OK, that title is only alliterative if you use your Elmer Fudd voice

If that was it for the drop I am in big trouble because I have no idea what to buy at these prices.  Obviously, I still have grave concerns that are apparently not shared by other investors who are piling money back into the markets after Monday’s pullback.

We are still not in orbit yet but the market is looking pretty weightless in overseas trading with (at 5 am) Asia, Europe and US futures all firmly green.

The GDP came in better than expected (2.2% vs. 1.8%) and the core PCE remains at a very manageable 2.2% – it’s the Goldilocks economy for sure!

Asia was led higher by Japan as the Nikkei gained 221 on a strong industrial output (up 1.6%) which brought the Hang Seng back 141 points, recovering almost a third of yesterday’s drop.

Europe’s bounce is less impressive with indexes over there picking up about half a point but globally, we seem to be holding our ranges, which is very good stuff.

The dollar is down 12% against the Euro (the world’s strongest currency) this year alone and 50% over the past 5 years and we can only hope, in that longer-term perspective, that this is some sort of bottom before we tip over into the funny money category.

We are completely depending on the kindness of strangers to help our currency now as nothing is being done at home to narrow the trade deficit (we send $70Bn a month out of the country) or the budget deficit (we borrow $50B a month to keep the country running) so the only thing that will save the dollar is other Central Banks propping it up artificially.

It’s not something I like to base my future on but, hey, that’s just me – you guys go to town! 

Speaking of which, I hate to be a naysayer on the markets and one reason is it hurts readership.  That’s right, I’m going to let you into a dirty little financial writing secret and tell you that readership goes down if I take off my cheerleading dress.

This is the main reason I don’t do advertising on the site (but I will soon), as much as I like to think I am above that stuff, when I had Google ads…
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Tuesday Wrap-Up

Well, we all held up quite nicely didn’t we?

The Durable Goods reportwas pretty poor and Barry Ritholtz has a very scary unspin on the NAR Numbersthat should please the housing bears but Uncle Ben must have borrowed Cramer’s “BUY BUY BUY” button for the day as he came out whistling “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” in New York.

Bernanke couldn’t get the markets moving despite sticking to my script of hawkish on inflation and enthusiastic about the economy – I think his delivery needs a little work as he always sounds like he’s actually quite worried about something.

Perhaps is was this statement: “A home for which the sales contract is cancelled becomes available for sale once again but is not included in the official data on the inventory of unsold new homes.” 

I found that quite shocking.  A home which is not sold is not counted as an unsold home…  How many homes are we hiding in this country?

So despite Ben’s rah rah speech (and the Italian American Foundation atendees almost fell out of their chairs by the time he was done 45 minutes later!) the markets were unenthusiastic until the old master, Greenspan came to the rescue.

The former Fed Chairman said “that the worst of the housing adjustment was over, and that he was preparing to publish an analysis of the “serious dispute” over the true effect of mortgage wealth on consumer spending,” otherwise known as The Consolation Prize Theory.

You know the Fed is trying to spin the economic data when they coordinate 2 governors, Bernanke and Greenspan to all give the same message on the same day!

Not only that but Paulson took a swing at itover in London by saiying that the US economy is “healthy and a strong US dollar will keep it that way.”  I’d like to know where he’s getting his dollars from because the ones I have are looking mighty weak!

All these happy, happy policy makers managed to convince a stunning amount of people to ignore $60 oil and “buy on the dips” enough to give us a positive close across the board.

NYSE advances outpaced declines by roughly 2 to 1 and AMEX up volume outpaced down volume 81% to 17%. 

On the whole, the Dow was a slacker with XOM contributing the majority of the 15…
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Telling Tuesday

Did I miss anything?

I tried to put a good spin on the charts but it looks like day one of a correction to me.  We have the UBS sales report, Durable Goods and Redbook ahead of the bell followed by Consumer Confidence and Existing Home Sales at 10 am plus Bernanke speaks in NY this afternoon!

To say I have no idea what will happen today is a massive understatement!

At times like this I have to look at the charts and the charts look very ugly indeed.  Not as ugly as the Hang Seng, which dropped 564 points (3%) this morning as exporters took a power dive on fears of a US slowdown along with the obvious problem of collecting worthless dollars from US consumers.

We sell $20B worth of Treasury Notes this afternoon (this is a nice way of saying we will borrow another $20Bn to fund our debt addiction) and we can expect Asia to step in and bail us out with “strong demand.”  This is a short-term fix for the dollar but should help a little.

The Yen is also pulling back and the currency trade of the moment is probably to short the Euro around 134 so the rebound in the dollar this week (assuming there is) will be more related to profit-taking there than real strength here.

I’m still fairly hopeful but I can afford to be since I cashed out last week! 

On Monday I said: “The Dow needs to hold 12,300 and get over 12,400 if we are to achieve weightlessness in December.  It’s a greedy target but there will be no points awarded for a good try on this one.  I would seriously love to say I’m not worried if it tests 12,200 but I will be seriously lightening up if we hit 12,249!

I would much rather be embarrassed that I got out too early than face the alternative!  We can always reinvest cash…

On Tuesday I said: “So we will watch the transports and pray they hold 2,650, otherwise it is really time to lighten up ahead of the holidays – despite my generally bullish disposition.  If it’s a real rally, I can certainly afford to miss one month out of 120!

The transports did hold but, on Wednesday I said: ” I will be cashing out ahead of the weekend on any weakness as I will just sleep
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Monday Morning

Well the dollar is starting to matter.

We talked about this back in Augustand it has always cast a shadow on our trading as I’ve never been able to get all gung-ho while ignoring this pressing issue.

While we were all out having turkey, the rest of the world took a long, hard look at our balance sheets and downgraded us. 

As our debt is looking riskier to foreigners, the rumors that the Fed will LOWER rates to boost a slowing economy make no sense at all to buyers of international paper (or to anyone who actually understands economics).

So let’s be very, very careful out there as things may LOOK good over here but to other countries we look a lot more like this:

   

And that is not good in any language! 

I don’t want to make things sound dire but, since Wednesday, the dollar is down 2.3%.  That means that a European or Asian investor who has a virtual portfolio of US stocks lost 2.3% of his value across the board in just 3 days.  That’s the equivelant of a 250-point Dow drop!

We are going to be needing some pretty exceptional retail numbers to convince foreign investors that our economy still has legs…

Let’s not forget that we asked for this when we told China to strengthen the Yuan.  Currencies don’t strengthen in a vacuum and for the Yuan to rise, something had to fall and it’s no surprise to my readers that the dollar would end up suffering.

All of this is right in line with my Inflation Nation policy but it’s a fine line between a steady devaluation and a total meltdown so let’s watch our gauges!  Asian markets were up, except for the Hang Seng as investors there become concerned that the government will have to take action to curb the dollar’s fall.  Japan has already made noises about keeping a rate raise off the table to keep speculators out of the Yen and to maintain the ”carry trade” where investors borrow Yen to buy Dollars, taking advantage of the interest spreads.

Europe is having a 1% sell-off and companies that get paid in dollars are being hit hard, a strong indicator that European investors don’t see any great fixes ahead for our currency.

You would think Europe would be in a good mood as crude prices have slipped 2.5% in the past 3 days, something we are blissfully unaware of as the contracts are priced in dollars that are falling just
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Weekend Wonderings

After coming off a no data week last week, we have an overload of information on deck for the next one.

Coming into the home stretch, with just 28 shopping days until Christmas, we will be hearing numbers, numbers, numbers all week to digest with the last of our leftover turkey.

Monday is relatively benign with the usual 3 and 6 month T-Bill auction but, with the M3 shenanigans on everyone’s mind, they will take on a very new significance.

Tuesday hammers us with the weeked UBS Store Sales report, Durable Goods Orders, the Redbook (before the bell), Consumer Confidence and Existing Home Sales at 10.  At 1pm we have the 2 year note auction and Bernanke speaking in NY.

More housing data comes Wednesday morning with the MBA Purchase Applications report but who will care with the GDP at 8:30 and actual New Home Sales at 10.  They are looking for just 1.8% on the GDP, which seems very low to me and I wonder how an upside surprise will be taken…

Just as we are trying to absorb that bit of news we get hit with a Petroleum Report at 10:30 followed by a dead serious 5-year note auction at 1 which will all be forgotten an hour later when we see the Beige Book.

Just in case Wednesday doesn’t leave us in a total state of data overload they are ready to hit us again on Thursday with Jobless Claims, Personal Income and Outlays, the Chicago Purchasing Index at 10, Natural Gas at 10:30, Farm Prices at 3 and the government’s spin on the Money Supply at 4:30.

Before you start thinking the Money Supply is just coincidentally after the market closes on Thursday – Uncle Ben is scheduled to spin speak about monetary policy Friday at 9am at the Fed.  At 10 we get Construction Spending and the ISM numbers and right at the closing bell we get Motor Vehicle Sales to mull over for the weekend.

Ben will be backed up during the day by Philly Pres Charlie Plosser and Richmond’s Jeff Lacker so we will get a pretty good view of the party line by then.  If the M2 is as bad as I think, expect to hear from Greenspan on Friday as well.

I forget where you find them but the play of the week next week may be on those VIX calls, because if…
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Fickle Friday

OK, first of all, why are you reading this?  It’s a holiday – go home, relax, spend time with the family!

So why am I posting? Addict that I am, I had to click on CNBC and the futures look awful.  I’m not particularly bothered by it as I cut back on everything before I left but I will be taking a bit of a cover on the remaining positions if we trend down.

You can’t put much stock into the movements on a very low volume day like today but the dollar is a train wreck (as we talked about) and (also as we talked about) only China can save us.

It seems we’ve gotten caught with our hands in the international cookie jar and the M3 (which we have talked about a lot), which the government stopped officially reporting in March,  has been going up very quickly since then!

 M3b_1

Tsk, tsk – sneaky sneaky US Treasury!  Naughty, naughty flooding the world with dollars while telling China to float their currency.  The annual rate of M3 change is currently 10%, that’s a rate of over $1T worth of dollars being shoved down the throats of international investors every year.

This is more than can sustainably be absorbed!

The situation is so dire that Paulson AND Bernanke are now planning to jet over to Beijing to beg for mercy.

The dollar is at 2 year lows and will rocket gold and oil today so we can go back to the ABX $27.50s as a momentum trade - Tuesday they made a quick 15% as we exited at $1.95.

MRB is back to $4.01 and is always fun but I think this may be a flush for gold shorts and dollar bulls so I’m not going to go crazy until I see what shapes up Monday and Tuesday.

NEM $45s also make a good momentum play at $1.50 but don’t go against the price of gold – get out/don’t buy when it pulls back on you!

These are virtual portfolio protection plays only.  Also, the DIA Jan $121 puts for $1.10 are good protection as they won’t kill you on the turn (as long as you maintain a 25% stop) but will be a reliable double if we drop 100 points.

Retail sales look good, better than expected – despite all the grinchy predictions but

So let’s not panic yet but let’s have some…
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Wednesday Morning

Happy Turkey Day!

The market is certainly no turkey as we race to new highs to close out the week.

Asia had good news/bad news with Japan’s economy much slower than expected but that means the BOJ won’t be raising rates so the Nikkei went up 180 points while the Hang Seng shot up 242 to a new record (not on this chart yet) of 19,250.79. 

Do not underestimate that .79 – it shows that they mean it!

My January choice for International Market of the Year, the BSE, is still ahead (up 40%) and it is doubtful they will be caught by 12/31 but next year is a whole new ballgame!

Here’s a very good article on Chinese growth and the widening income gap there.  I think they fail to take into account the millions of young people who have left the farms and joined the workforce that is skewing the results but the figures are very, very interesting.  This is why I’m teaching my daughters Mandarin!

Europe is up nicely ahead of our open with the FTSE making another run at 6,250, which it needs to take out next week if we are to get globally serious about a rally.  The DAX is well beyond serious as it tackles the 6,500 barrier with a 3rd consecutive record high.

Russia (kind of Europe) is raising the ultra-low natural gas prices it’s own people have benefited from as they are (surprise) wasting it!  Russia’s 143M people consume 244% more gas than Europe’s other Billion people - sure it’s cold but turn the thermostat down a notch Boris!  Perhaps Putin can get on TV in a sweater and…   no that didn’t work well for Carter.

I don’t even want to look down today, I’m going to keep a positive mental attitude about the markets but I will be cashing out ahead of the weekend on any weakness as I will just sleep better with more off the table.

Bear in mind what a great show of confidence it is if the markets are willing to go into a 2 day break at all-time highs!

  • The Dow will test 12,350 but anything over 12,300 is still very nice.
  • The S&P has drawn the line at 1,400 so let’s keep it there.
  • The NYSE is just a few points shy of a new high and closing above 8,925 would be


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Phil's Favorites

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

 

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

Courtesy of Chusu He, Coventry University

Investors are still being fairly complacent about the novel coronavirus. After the number of new daily cases suddenly shot up to more than 15,000 on February 12 following more than a week of decline, there were some jitters in the markets. With Chinese authorities saying the increase was due to a decision to broaden the definition for diagnosing people, there were falls in the region of 1% in European markets, and smaller retrenchments in Asia and North America.

It is...



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Biotech & Health

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

 

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

Courtesy of Chusu He, Coventry University

Investors are still being fairly complacent about the novel coronavirus. After the number of new daily cases suddenly shot up to more than 15,000 on February 12 following more than a week of decline, there were some jitters in the markets. With Chinese authorities saying the increase was due to a decision to broaden the definition for diagnosing people, there were falls in the region of 1% in European markets, and smaller retrenchments in Asia and North America.

It is...



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Zero Hedge

China Adopts 'Cultural Revolution-Style' Social Controls To Crush Outbreak As Death Toll Nears 2,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Summary:

  • Taiwan reports 1st coronavirus death
  • Hubei reports 1,933 new cases, 100 deaths
  • Hubei health officials report 1,933 new cases, 100 new deaths
  • Taiwan taxi driver who died from virus carried passengers from mainland, Hong Kong, Macau
  • Singapore reports 3 more cases
  • Total cases aboard 'Diamond Princess' climbs to 355 as US prepares to evacuate citizens
  • Indonesia says 6 passengers from Westerdam cruise ship tested negative
  • There are now at least 68,500 cases worldwide, and at least 1,665 de...


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Members' Corner

How to Stop Bill Barr

 

How to Stop Bill Barr

We must remove this cancer on our democracy.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

...



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The Technical Traders

Is The Technology Sector Setting Up For A Crash? Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

One thing that continues to amaze our research team is the total scale and scope of the Capital Shift which is taking place across the globe.  For almost 5+ years, foreign investors have been piling into the US stock market chasing the stronger US dollar and continued advancement of US share prices. It is almost like there is no other place on the planet that will allow investors to pool capital into such a variety of strong assets while protecting against foreign capital risks.  Yet the one big question remains – when will a price reversion event hit the US stock
market?

So many researchers, even our team of researchers, believe we have found the keys to unloc...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Joe Friday Says Germany (DAX) Could Rally 30%, Happy Valentines Day For The Bulls!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

German DAX Index “weekly” Chart

The German DAX is one of the more important global stock market indices, as it represents the largest economy / market in the Euro Zone.

So it would be a real treat for the bulls to see this stock market index breakout as we celebrate Valentine’s Day.

The facts, Ma’am. Just the facts; The German DAX looks to have formed a bullish ascending triangle over the past 3 years and it is currently attempting to breakout above the top at (1)....



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Insider Scoop

Nissan Shares Tumble To Decade Low After Q3 Earnings Miss

Courtesy of Benzinga

The shares of Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (OTC: NSANY) dropped to a decade low on Thursday after the company missed third-quarter earnings estimates and significantly cut its annual forecast for the financial 2019 year.

What Happened

Nissan, on Thursday, reported a net loss o...



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ValueWalk

Russell 2000 Index (RUT) hits an almost one-month high

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Ad the Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) hit an almost one-month high today, commenting on today’s trading Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) Outperforms Large-Cap Benchmarks

While the overnight session was nothing short of scary stocks held on to most of yesterday's gains and small-caps even extended their winning streak. The Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) hit an almost one-month high today, finishing higher for the fourth day in a row while outperforming the large-cap benchmarks, and since the Volatility...



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Chart School

Dow theory warning from the Utilities Index

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Charles Dow died in 1902, and the investors should thank him for his ever lasting Dow Theory Analysis.

Carrying on this blog theme looking at the Utility stocks. Previous post.
Dow Jones Utility index could trade like the FANGs
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally ends



You can learn about Dow Theory here

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Price May Hit $27K All-Time High By Summer, Predicts Fundstrat's Tom Lee

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin is primed for average gains of almost 200% over the next six months, one of its best-known supporters has told mainstream media. 

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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