Archive for 2006

Weekly Wrap Up

Well I am so glad I got out of Google early! What a lame day it had considering. I made the huge mistake of thinking it might bounce back to $450 mid-day and wasted some of my profits on more calls that quickly went worthless.

After peaking out at $4 (a nice double) the $500 calls dropped to $2.90. The $490s only fetched $5.50 but that was 175% so nothing to really complain about. They held up ok, closing at $4 but this is how greed kills as they were going for $5 all the way until 11:30.

The markets were awful and I am dreading Monday as only commodities held up the indexes. The Nasdaq’s poor performance in the face of great earnings does not speak well for next week but we are comfortably above all resistance points and this was an option expiration day so we will have to wait and see.

Oil finished way up at a record $75 and gold made it back to $635 and copper is at an amazing $310 (up 11% for the week).

An optimist would say these are signs of a robust economy but I am baffled by the mediocre performance of most of the stocks.


Our day trades went pretty good if you followed the rules and set 20% stops:

COP $70s opened at .60 and finished at $2.49

NEM $55s never came lower than $1.05 but finished at $2.50

The NEM May $55s that were a disaster yesterday, dropping from $1.90 to .90, finished today at $4.10 so I no longer feel bad for my major recommendation.

ABX $30s came down to .10 and finished there too after peaking at .45 (again greed kills)

I got the PLAY Jan $17.50s for $1.10 but I am already regretting it!

AAPL $67.50s for came down to .60 but never went back up. I was lucky to get .50 before the close.

GM $22.50 puts opened at .10 (I love these crazy buyers!) and got better all day finishing at .70.

XOM $65s were nice enough to open for .05 but never went over .10.

CVX came in at .50 and had a great day, finishing at $1.50.

QQQQ $42s did come down to .60 and kept going all the way down to .05 but it was a falling knife from the open as we discussed in comments.

DIA $113s for…
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Friday Morning

Asia is up with Sony flying ahead into next weeks earnings and the car companies moving nicely, there may be an opportunity to play TM or HMC this morning if they don’t gap up at the open. Europe is up across the board on a commodity recovery.

I don’t think today’s action will tell you anything other than people are playing with prices into options expiration. Google may have decimated the non-believers but I won’t be surprised if there is a concerted effort to hold it down (and, as below, I feel there are many reasons to) before 70,000 contracts (7M shares) finish in the money.

On the other hand, there may be a real shortage of shares to buy which can really rocket the stock.

The WSJ is front paging how EBay is in talks with Microsoft and Yahoo to take out Google. This is the kind of article that could have be written any time but they use them when they want to stop a runaway stock:

As we expected metals are recovering already, I actually thought they would stay down through options expiration but this just shows you the strength of underlying demand.

Oil is down but you wouldn’t know it as we are now quoting June delivery so the price is now $73 per barrel but that’s down about .50 from yesterday. We don’t short oil on the weekend, especially with new supply threats from Nigeria.

Anything can happen today so don’t be greedy!

Good trading,

- Phil


Here are some very dangerous day trades I am looking at with a goal of making 20% and a stop at 20%. Remember you need to exit asap as the premium will be destroyed by 1pm! And please, please, please do not chase…

All oils strictly following the Valero rule as long as oil stays over $73.

COP $70s for .45

NEM $55s for .85

ABX $30s for .15

Offering PLAY Jan $17.50s for $1.15 or less (not a day trade but get out at $1). I think they are just being punished by Apple for trying to sell tech to other companies and this will be resolved as their stuff is just better and if Apple doesn’t want it, Sony will.

AAPL $67.50s for .60

GM $22.50 puts for .20

XOM $65s for .10 (total gamble)

CVX $60s
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Google Update

I’m now advocating taking the money and running on our Google calls as I see a lot of things that will really hurt it as it becomes overbought and the naysayers come out. If you take earnings at face value Google beat estimates by 15% so you would expect it to move up at least $60 tomorrow but I’m looking a little closer than face value. Here are some of the things I see so far, check comments for any additional stuff: Most of the numbers we are hearing are “Non-GAAP” in other words, not according to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles! This means all the numbers that are currently being bandied about may not be the numbers that end up on the bottom line: Now I can’t imagine that they would purposely mislead people to the extent they are obviously being led so far this evening but the conference call was less than forthcoming so I started digging… Here’s the full filed results: Maybe I’m too much of a lawyer but I don’t like the statement: “Google had an exceptional quarter” leading off the legally filed report as exceptional means “unusual, not typical” and perhaps “don’t expect us to do this again.” There were $39M worth of “tax benefits” included in earnings (7%) from 4th quarter charities and losses associated with paying out on the “click-fraud” lawsuit. “Stock-Based Compensation — In accordance with a new accounting rule, FASB Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 107, stock-based compensation is no longer presented as a separate line on our income statement. The stock-based compensation is now presented in the same lines as cash compensation paid to the same individuals. Stock-based compensation recognized in prior periods has been reclassed to conform with the presentation in the current period. In the first quarter, the charge related to stock-based compensation was $115 million as compared to $58 million in the fourth quarter. The increase in stock-based compensation was primarily related to the adoption of FAS 123R related to stock-based options expensing. For the full year, we expect stock-based compensation charges for grants to employees prior to April 1, 2006 to be $370 million. This does not include expenses to be recognized over the remainder of the year related to employee stock awards that are granted after April 1, 2006 or non-employee stock awards that have been or may be granted. We currently anticipate that dilution…
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Great Googly Moogly!

Well that was a good finish to a crappy day.

Google should save the Nasdaq tomorrow and, since that was the only thing keeping down the markets, we may have a heck of a run. I thought it was very funny that Cramer did not have the balls to mention Google at 3:30, he could have been everyone’s hero but he lost faith (as did I when I halfed out my $500s).

I did not like today’s “rally” as there were not that many stocks participating in it but I think Google will give us a reason to follow through on the broader market tomorrow.

Oil was off all day and commodities were a disaster so I was very please with my cash position as flakey was the order of the day.


There are two issues with Google’s earnings. The real number is $1.95, not $2.29 which excludes items I’m not sure are one-time and a very negative statement is in there: “”We expect that the growth rate in capital expenditures in 2006 will be substantially greater than the revenue growth rate for the year,” Google said. “We expect the majority of investment to be focused on IT infrastructure including servers, networking equipment, and data centers, as well as real estate and campus facilities.”

Uh oh! It’ll be up to the analysts to decipher this and put a spin on it but I will be selling more than half into the excitement in the morning while the volatility premium is huge. I expect this thing to go at least $450 in the morning but $490 and $500 is still a ways away so I will be glad to move to cash on most of my calls.

Don’t forget BIDU has limited after hours trading and may make a nice surrogate play in the morning.


Nothing worked today so I’m not even going to bother looking at today’s picks. If the market does indeed turn up tomorrow a lot of today’s ideas may be real bargains tomorrow.

I’m very mad at myself for picking up CME $490 puts for $2 as I was sure it was going lower but it didn’t and the puts eroded to almost half by the end of the day. I should have realized how quickly that could happen as it is the same reason I told everyone to stay out of the April Googles!…
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Thursday Morning

Things are looking pretty good again.

Asia was mixed but that’s fine after a good run, Europe is up across the board and our futures are pointing up on pretty good earnings.

Gold is up to $645 so someone is worried about something and oil in Europe is close to $74 and I think we are likely to head that way too at this point. Notes have pulled back a bit to just around 5% which is tolerable and the dollar has stopped falling for the moment.

Had it not been for changes in compensation rules, Ebay’s profits were up 20% along with a 35% increase in revenues but they are being punished regardless. This behavior seems capricious as some companies are suffering as others are forgiven so it will be hard to guess which will be which.

Coming into option expiration tomorrow I will be leaving little on the table as we may get some big pullbacks for no reason. There is also the major Google wildcard to be played tonight so let’s trade carefully out there!


PLAY is in total collapse this morning as they got the boot from some new IPods. Although I think the 40% drop is a bit overdone, I certainly won’t want to get in the way of it. The same thing happened to SGTL last year and they never recovered although I may take some Jan $17.50s for .10 just in case:

NOK had great revenues and MOT sold plenty of phones, although disappointing so I am liking VZ May $32.50s for .85 and T (4/25) Oct $27.50s for .45.

We finally get rewarded for those MRK $35s we bought last week for .35 as the company announces an 11% jump in profit on flat sales indicating good cost cutting.

It only cost NEM $280-295 per ounce to sell gold and their profits doubled this quarter to .46 a share vs. expectations of .32! It is astounding to me that the stock is not flying up in pre-market so I’m going to grab the May $60s, which were $1.95 last night. The company expects to sell 7.7M ounces of gold this year and has a market cap of $26Bn yet the forward p/e is currently estimated at 32. When gold was $550 an ounce this stock was at $62. Need more reasons?

ABX (5/3) is a bigger producer of…
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Wednesday Wrap-Up

Not going down is good!

It would have been better if the entire gain (outside of tech) wasn’t based on commodities again but we’ll take it.

Gold exploded to $636 and oil cracked $72 so the amazing thing is that everything else didn’t collapse. We may get a correction in oil tomorrow as all the signals look way overbought and expirations are looming.

Lots more earnings this week so we will have to see where it all goes! I wasn’t happy with the way IBM was treated today but in general reactions were fairly realistic (as opposed to last year when everything went down no matter what companies did).


COST dropped a point today (I hope it wasn’t something I said!) and the July $52.50 puts ended at $1.05 (up 10%) making me very confident in this call.

BAY really took off, running the Sept $40s to $3.20 (up 25%).

KO ran up much faster than I thought and today would have been a great day to sell those May $42.50s but I’m happy with the Jan ’08 $40s at $5.30 (up 10%) for a first day.

ET gapped open and flew up so fast I ended up buying the $25 puts for .10 but sentiment is very against me! Nope, I’m dead on this one, profit up 54%, raising guidance…

Speaking of sentiment, CNBC is sitting with an analyst who says INTC will disappoint below what is projected to be horrendous earnings! And me with all these May $20s…

SBUX had a great morning but pulled back to a 1% gain. The May $40s finished at .80 (up 15%).

I got rid of most of my EBAY May $40s as they ran up to $2.15 (up 75%), it was too much to risk and it looks like I made a good call as the stock is tanking after hours on what looks like a small miss with lower guidance. I’ll look later but I see a lot of things I like here.

INTC hit the quarter but lowered guidance. This sucks for the PC sector so look for DELL and HPQ to take a hit as well as you can’t attribute this kind of downward guidance to AMD (who will also go down) so it must be a sector thing. Expectations were so low for Intel I still might make out on my May $20s but I think…
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Wednesday Morning

OK, let’s keep our fingers crossed…

On Friday’s wrap-up I said: “We’ve been looking for a correction for a couple of weeks and, if that was all it is, we could be heading into a nice rally. This supposition is based on several factors that have held the market down this week can’t get worse: Oil heading to $70, interest heading to 5%, gold heading to $600, Iran has WMD capability, Iraq continues to be a quagmire… Also, a lot of people were taking profits off the table in a thinly traded week to pay taxes and that should be over by Monday.”

All we need now is a little push higher and we will be free to explore new territory.

It looks like we are getting it from both earnings and more nice Fed speak. At $71 I hear people are even celebrating a .35 drop in oil prices (it’s funny how quickly you get used to things).

Asian stocks are up triple digits and Europe is up about a point so all looks very well. With oil inventories out today our stocks may be tempered by a slight pullback in the oil sector (but I’m not betting against them) but Yahoo should lead a nice Nasdaq rally that will keep us going all day. Then it will be up to Apple and Intel to take us through the night.

Gold continues to fly, now at $628. MRB is now at $3.34 (up 8%) but NAK (because they don’t sell gold yet) is still at just $6.60 and should be viewed as a very long-term play.

We are seeing some amazing beats from major players like HON and UTX and IBM and JPM and TXN and PFE and ALL and JNJ and DHI and… well, you get the idea – this is a very good earnings season. If the analysts can warm up to this and the Fed gives us a clear signal of a pause and oil stays below $75 we could be heading to Dow 12,000!


Last year COST (5/31) had a disastrous quarter as gas prices ran away from them and eroded their margins. Costco, BJs, Sam’s and Kroger all turn their inventory over daily which means they have no buffer (like a typical service station that fills up once or twice a week) as prices rise. The entire first 90 days of this year…
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Tuesday Wrap-Up

Wow, what a great day!

I really lucked out by taking my Monday advice and scooping up the BTU $55s this morning instead of overpaying yesterday. The action could not have gone better!

Needless to say my XOM adventure on the call side ended well too!

After giving us a worry in the afternoon the markets just rock and rolled right over resistance with all the indices comfortably above their lines. But it will be up to today’s earnings reports to continue this rally, so far they look pretty good!

Oil flew over $71 and, more importantly, natural gas went back to $8 before pulling back slightly but the markets just did not care! We had low inflation in the morning, which started the rally then a Fed Governor said they are close to done and then the minutes made it look like they were, in fact, very close to done so the rally continued right into the bell.

Gold finished at $623 while copper is threatening $300 as the dollar loses another point against the Euro (and will drop further if our Fed stops just as the BOJ starts).


MOT missed by a hair so we will see where that leads and if Yahoo and TXN can’t deliver we can expect about half of today to be erased very quickly.

AMGN missed a bit too! Being severely punished for it.

IBM beat on earnings, thank goodness! That cost cutting is paying off because revenues are way down… I don’t think these numbers will do them too much good as it shows the company moving towards a low growth model but it’s not the disaster people were worried about.

TXN had a huge beat! I love these guys!!!

Yahoo had great top line revenues but earnings were just in line but not the disaster people feared so expect Yahoo and Google to be up big tonight!


No action on DELL and now there are 71,000 open $30 calls so it will have to be something amazing to put all those people in the money…

TGT made some improvement today and the Jul $52.50s nudged up to $2.10 (up 5%).

DHI went completely the wrong way in the morning but rewarded the faithful with a 2.25% gain into the close. The May $35s finished at $1.20 (up 25%).

MER also had a poor…
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Testy Tuesday Morning

Are we going to have a major breakdown or will today confirm the overall strength of the markets? Isn’t it funny that a technical day like this coincides with so many major earnings reports?

As I review the picks I’ve been looking at I have to admit I am somehow still bullish on the whole. I think earnings look good and an end to Fed tightening or a drop in oil can really bring us up to new highs. We get Fed minutes today so it will be interesting to see what they’re thinking.

Asia had a big recovery today, more than erasing yesterday’s losses. Europe is mixed to weak again while the Euro is up 2% since last week.

Oil hit $72 in Europe before pulling back a touch. Even the Wall Street Journal now agrees with me and says that the disconnect between the oversupply of oil and the speculative run-up in prices can’t continue. Essentially, either one of the many feared supply disruptions have to occur or “prices could quickly drop $20 a barrel or more, OPEC officials said.

More and more people are going to recognize that the fundamentals just aren’t there to support these prices,” said John Gault, an adviser to the energy industry with Geneva-based firm Nalcosa.

Did I sell my gold too soon or was my timing impeccable? At $618 I decided I had made quite enough money (350% on my ABX $30s from Thursday) and I didn’t want to leave both them and my XOM $62.50s open overnight in case World peace broke out or something. I still have
BVN $25s and also Jun $30s, which are already at .70 (up 30% from 4/15) as it is way behind the sector.

$620 should be tough resistance (for a few days at least) I also figure if gold goes to $630 there will be plenty of things to buy!

In the pre-market it looks like a good call so far with XOM up .40 and ABX up just .10…


Holy Cow! You think things can’t get worse for SYMC (5/9) and then the IRS comes knocking! It seems Veritas was audited and found deficient in 2000 and 2001 so the new owner has to fork over taxes, penalties and interest of $1 Billion!!! The stock dropped right into the 5% rule today.

30,000 DELL April $30 calls were bought yesterday
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Monday Mop-Up

Yuch! If not for a 2% rise in the oil sector and a 3% rise in commodities that would have been one ugly day today. You could have just watched GE and known this was not a day to buy…

On the bright side, the Nasdaq is holding 2,300 and the Dow is holding 11,000 and the S&P, although down to 1,285, has not fallen off a cliff yet (but is now resting BELOW the 50 dma).

So right now any up move in the S&P will be bullish while any move further down by the Dow or the Nasdaq will be quite bearish.

Oil finished over $70 and gold at $618 so I sold my gold stocks (except BVN) but, given the global outlook, I kept those XOM $62.50s one more day (after selling 25%).

I cannot explain the lack of movement on NAK and MRB on a day when NEM gained 6%. The mining strilke in Mexico may be winding down so watch out for a pullback in copper but I’m not sure it will drag gold down with it as copper is up 75% since Jan 2005 and gold is up “just” 50%.

There was plenty of day trade money to be made today but pretty much everything was down by the afternoon if it wasn’t a natural resource.


C opened nice and high but drifted all day, even if you didn’t get the premium earlier in the day, you can’t be too unhappy with the $47.50s at .95 (up 90%).

Today was a great day to roll the DIS to May $27.50s as the stock was week all day and the new calls only cost .90.

INFY had a monster day, gaining 13%, stopped only by the closing bell. The July $65s we picked up for $9.60 way back on 2/21 are now $19.90 but I wasn’t this patient.

I’m sorry I sold those RIMMs! Down another 2% today.

I thought we were onto something with Yahoo this morning but then it dropped .70 after 10:30.

Of all the stocks to short today, DISH just would not die! I suppose the lawsuit may be factored in at this point but the $30 puts fell to .25 (down 30%).

ALKS was a huge disappointment as well, retracing almost all of its late Thursday gains and the May $22.50s dropped to $1.05 where I did a ‘mon…
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Zero Hedge

World Trade War I: US Asks South Korea To Join Anti-Huawei Campaign

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The bilateral trade war between the US and China is gradually becoming a global trade war of global geopolitical and commercial dominance between the US and Chinese spheres of influence.

Shortly after the two largest mobile phone companies in the UK decided against launching Huawei-built 5G phones this morning, and roughly around the time a bevy of Japanese tech and telecom companies including ARM Holdings, Panasonic and SoftBank all imposed a boycott on supplying Huawei with mission critical components joining Australia, and New Zealand as major US allies to end commercial relat...

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Phil's Favorites

Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations


Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations

rblfmr /

Courtesy of John Colley, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

The year of the tech IPO is 2019. Uber went public on May 10 with a US$82.4 billion valuation. Fellow ride-sharing app Lyft floated in March with a U$24 billion valuation and Pinterest had a US$10 billion IPO in April...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Emerging Markets About To Submerge If 3-Year Support Breaks?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are Emerging Markets about to “Submerge” and head a good deal lower? What they do at (3) will go a long way in answering this question!

Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has been lagging the broad market for the past 15-months. They hit their 50% retracement level of the last year’s highs and lows and falling resistance at (2) recently. The weakness of last has EEM trading below its 200-MA line.

EEM has spent the majority of the past 3-years inside of rising channel (1), which reflects that this trend remains up. The weakness of late has it testing the bo...

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Insider Scoop

Amgen To Buy Danish Collaborator Nuevolution For $167M

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) took a logical step forward in buying a preclinical biotech it has been collaborating with since 2016. 

What Happened

Amgen announced Wednesday an agreement to buy Copenhagen-based Nuevolution for $167 million.

Th... more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.


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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


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More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>