Archive for 2006

Weekly Wrap-Up

Wowie! 5 straight weeks of gains!!! We are at 6 year highs across the board (except the Nasdaq, of course). The NYSE and the Russel 2000 are at all-time highs and that is a lot more significant than where the Dow is! $70 oil – no problem! $700 gold – no worries! Dollar down – charge it! Interest up – refinance! We’ve got war, we have disease, we have a deficit that equals the entire rest of the planet combined… We are gonna party like it’s 1999! Time to go with the flow I say. A lot will depend on Monday but if the weekend is kind to us we may come out of the box on the way to another record breaking week. From my Oil Price Information Service I got this encouraging quote: “The Merc traders hype the possible gasoline shortage for all it’s worth in the February-to-April period, when refinery production is at or near the year’s lows,” a broker in Houston said. “But then all their hype can’t stand up to the light of day as refinery production picks up again in May, and prices fall — exactly like we’re seeing this week.” ===================================== Today’s oil puts were all blown dead by VLO at 10:30 as it turned sharply up with the sector but I did take a position on PBR and GRP into the weekend in case peace breaks out… ABX was my shining star of the month so far with the $30s running to $4.40 (up 300%) and the June $32.50s now $2.65 (up 320%). I sold all mine today – I’m not crazy enough to ride that through the weekend – there’s pleny of other stocks to buy if gold keeps going! ADP is off to a slow start as the Aug $50s lost a nickle to .25. AIG had a sad week but I still like the long play on the Nov $70s for $1.90 (up .05). ATI was the right Boeing buddy to back on Tuesday as the $75s are back at $2.60 (up 130%). AIR was not so smart and the $30s are .20 (down 33%) but I still have hope… AU was the main reason I sold ABX today, how can it go down 2% on this quarter? http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060505:MTFH22633_2006-05-05_15-30-28_L05705927&symbol=ANGJ.J&rpc=44 BIIB had another nice week and the $45s are up to $2.40 (up 100%) and the Jul $50s still look…
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Friday Morning

Asia remains closed (Monday should be a doozie) and Europe is up across the board so we might get a good finish to a great week!

If it weren’t Friday I would be shorting the hell out of oil but Iran still looms too large to leave that kind of money on the table over the weekend.

Commodities continue their run but we have to think about what will happen 8pm on Sunday when Asia reopens. I imagine there will be a lot of short covering on metals at the open which will lead to a lot of non-believers holding long positions that they will probably dump into the European open at 4am. Europe may or may not perceive gold being rejected firmly at $700 and we may be into a sharp correction by the time US markets open.

So I think I am going to be done with gold today. If it breaks and holds $700 there are a ton of good buys among the miners, copper too, but I think $700 will be a tough nut to crack without some consolidation.

Oil is in 2 day free fall but the oil stocks aren’t really buying it yet. This one is uber risky as anything can happen over the weekend but, if nothing does, then Asia will open with longs dumping positions and we will probably see a test of the 50 dma of $67.50 in the very least.

If oil can’t hold $70 today (a Friday) then it is in very serious trouble. Don’t forget that integrated oil Co’s like COP, XOM and SUN made less money at $70 than they did at $65 although a lot of that is due to whether prices are trending up or down for the quarter (down is better). On that basis, we could be setting up for a great Q2 for big oil as long as we make an orderly descent to $65 between now and July.

TOL will have the chance to wreck the markets today with a rotten report and Warren Buffet is holding his annual meeting – without Greenspan, he is by far the single most influential voice in the markets.

=====================================

Well, we were waiting to see which Global Whacko would crawl out of the woodwork to make some crazy statement to stir up the price of oil and we forgot to place bets on our local…
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Thursday Wrap-Up

Another tricky but satisfying day for the markets. Never in trouble but not fulfilling the promise of the morning either. A huge drop in oil took out the sector but a lot of oil stocks are still holding on to those peaks, tomorrow will be a good day to pick around for some short plays unless we get some new sabre rattling from the usual suspects. Gold has totally disconnected from oil which is either huge for gold or just a sign that a $30 drop is just over the hill from here. Copper says this is a real commodity rally as does GE with a nice 1% gain today. Dow 11,500 is halfway to Dow 12,000 – a super magic number so let’s hope nothing messes this up between now and Monday! ===================================== ABX finally had its day! I was really concerned by the slow start in the morning but people caught on eventually and the Jun $32.50s are now $1.90 (up 200%). I’m going to hold this down to $1.50 but I refuse to give up 150% profits even though I really think this thing should go to $35 (we can always buy more with our profits). XOM $62.50s were real slow movers, barely making .80 (up .10) but that’s better than the wrong way they started the day: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XOM&t=1d HAL proved my point today that it’s good to have a VP in your pocket (but it won’t last): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HAL&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=slb MSFT was a great play for a half hour then did nothing all day but I see nice underlying strength for the $22.50s, now $1.05 (up 30%) if you didn’t stop out at $1 like you should have! I hate being wrong! I said MOT will hit resistance at $22.25 and they just had to diss me! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MOT&t=1d I just got done reading their 10Q and I feel like writing a love letter to Ed Zander! http://biz.yahoo.com/e/060503/mot10-q.html How about that GME? I couldn’t believe it sold at $48.25 for 5 minutes before falling off a cliff! I’m glad I missed it though because then it recovered and that would really annoy me. ATVI also recovered so I guess people decided ERTS’s problems were unique to them but I think that’s a mistake but not enough so to keep playing in this sandbox. If this is what FDX does after a downgrade, I can’t wait to see what happens…
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Thursday Morning

Taiwan is one of the only Asian markets open and they had a nice 1.5% gain this morning. Europe is also bouncing back nicely and we should do the same, at least in the morning.

Commodities are calming (but by no means dropping) on a lack of action against Iran as the US and its allies (a fragile alliance) can get no security council agreement with Russia and China. Most disturbing is Condoleezza Rice’s referal yesterday to forming a “coalition of the willing,” a phrase that was used just prior to the Iraq war. I haven’t seen this get a lot of attention yet but if it does expect gold and oil to rally again.

I find it hard to believe that Bush really intends to start another war (with what troops?) unless he is determined to see if his popularity can really get lower than Nixon’s at the height of Watergate. Perhaps they really think Iran will give them another cause to rally the people behind (it worked last time) but there’s that old “Fool me twice” proverb…

Gold is slow this week due to a lack of Asian buyers which is also keeping rates up and the dollar down against the Yen so we are setting up for something big next week when all this pent-up action comes to play.

There are oil companies who know how to make money, much like the auto industry you have to go to Europe to find them. TOT had a 15% rise in net profit despite being directly affected by Nigerian disruptions and it’s actually up 24% if you take out some miscellaneous items.

Crude prices are dropping fast and I still like my XOM $62.50 puts for .70 from yesterday’s comments.

Today is a day we should go up, I don’t see any potential economic news that should derail a rally today (tomorrow we have jobs) so any index drop would be a very big concern today.

I’m staying out of the markets today until I see some direction which probably won’t come until the jobs numbers come out tomorrow.

Good luck to all you traders!

======================================

MSFT is rolling out AdCenter, an attempt to catch the Google wave by copying their ad auction system. This makes it look like they’re not buying Yahoo which should reverse yesterday’s drop as people regain their sanity. The momentum is way against them…
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Wednesday Wrap-Up

Not a bad day! Following a big gain yesterday we ended up with a mild pullback, really mild if you consider the energy sector was off about 2% and commodities took a big hit as well.

The Dow finished at exactly 11,400 (psychological barriers are so interesting) while the S&P held 1,307 and the Nasdaq 2,303 all barely there but there!

This was all great with PG taking a 3.3% tumble (-$6Bn) and GM dropping 3%, INTC down 1.6% and Microsoft losing $6Bn in cap too!

Gold stocks were decimated today (other than my ABX’s which had a 200% rise in earnings) even though POG barely budged but oil ran down over $2, finishing just over $72.

For the sake of my Sprints and Motorolas and GEs I hope we get a nice push up tomorrow but I have enough Barricks not to be too upset if WWIII breaks out!

So I’m betting both ways and looking forward to hopefully being able to take one or the other off the table once this market finally picks a direction…

=====================================

DVN’s earnings were strong enough to make it one of the few oil stocks that didn’t tank today but I am off this one entirely.

SUN surprised the heck out of me by blowing already low earnings estimates by a whopping 32% on runaway refining costs – thank goodness there was never a buy signal today! I can’t even imagine where this will end them up tomorrow but the theme is set – only VLO knows how to make money refining! This must be why we have a Valero Rule…

MRK had a rotten day but no worse than many stocks. The Jun $32.50 puts are up a nickel to .40.

FDX gapped down and made for no trade as the $115 puts opened at $2.15 (up 65%).

MOT had a huge open and held it! Up 3% for the day with the Jul $22.50s moving to $1 (up 40%).

TXN had a nice move today from a low open and the Jul $35s are already $1.85 (up 20%).

Greed really killed on YHOO as the $32.50s opened at .70, ran up to $1.10 (up 70% in 2 hrs) and finished the day back at .70 again. It was at $1 all the way until 1pm so don’t even talk to me if you held this one all the way back…
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Wednesday Morning

Wow this market is so schitzo!

This morning Europe had a pullback (Asia is closed) and our futures are way down already on no particular news. I suppose the ongoing Iran situation is weighing on investors.

None of the indices look in any danger of breaking technicals today but those may be famous last words. Rates are calming, which does give me some hope.

Oil is hovering around $75, which was a serious top on 4/24 but looks beatable this week. I am concerned that this is a bad psychological level for the markets if broken. The markets were fine with $75 oil on the 24th but crashed with the oil sector when oil pulled back to $73 on the 25th (but markets rebounded the next day).

Gold is $675 in Europe and if it doesn’t turn here we may be looking to test $700 by the end of the month.

Lots of earnings still coming in. So far, 65% of the companies reporting have beat and only 15% have missed, that’s very, very good.

ADBE is killing the Nasdaq with a revenue warning which it is blaming on weakness in North America and Europe but I think it may be more specific to them and the inflated expectations they have been getting.

=====================================

PG had a slight miss on revenues but raised guidance slightly, it will be telling which direction this one goes as it is a major market component selling way below it’s pre-warning highs of $62. If it is punished I will be very concerned about the overall market.

DVN missed estimates, blaming hurricanes and that excuse still works as the stock is up anyway. I’ll be looking at the $65s for $1 if the energy sector is up again today.

The better Devon does today the more I like SUN Jun $90s for $2.15.

MRK got more bad news as Vioxx may cause heart attacks after just 2 weeks. I like the Jun $32.50 puts for .35 as a risky but possibly high reward play.

FDX got a downgrade today, just as it looked about to break up (what a coincidence!). If the markets are going down and oil is going up then the $115 puts for $1.30 may make a nice momentum play but it’s a great stock and I’m not wild about a short position in general.

TWX had flat earnings but a 59%…
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Tuesday Wrap-Up

Wow, that was a great day!

Wheee! All is well I guess – 5 year highs on Dow and S&P and even the Nasdaq perked up at the end. It’s a nice low data week so if we can just get through the oil inventories tomorrow we may get our first consolidation above these highs.

I was really encouraged by the broad NYSE running up 80 points and $74.70 oil and $667 gold didn’t seem to bother anyone one bit. Exxon’s boys met with the Senators today and convinced them (surprise, surprise) not to tax them:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB114653168829041080.html?mod=world_news_whats_news

Rates on the 30 year held at a barely bearable 5.22% but that’s still the danger signal to watch if it tops 5.30% this week.

=====================================

XOM $65s were great all day, finishing at $1 (up 100%).

After a big drop BUD went totally the other way, possibly on the belief they are taking market share from TAP. $45 puts finished below the stop at .55 (down 30%).

MOT had a great start and then died at the end of the day and the Jul $22.50s finished flat at .70 but my patience is getting razor thin on this one.

ATI had a nice day with the $75s finishing at $1.65 (up 40%). AIR, on the other hand, went completely the other way and the $30s are looking far away at .25 (down 50%).

VZ had a great start but stopped out my remaining calls as it fell all day.

Neither HOV or DHI came down enough to buy but both held the floor all day.

Looks like we could have played the $50 puts on JOE!

ABX had a very tough time making .19 today but the Jun $32.50s are now $1.05 (up 60%).

HAL $80s continued to go straight up to $3.20 (up 60%).





Tuesday Morning

Asia came back with a vengeance with 200 pt gains on the Nikkei and Hong Kong and Europe is looking up as well so it will be up to us to poop the party today.

Notes have pulled back a bit as economists are agreeing with me that Bernanke sounded sensible rather than hawkish yesterday and continued strong earnings from many sectors should not be ignored (but have been).

Hovnanian cut forecasts 10% which will put a damper on the building sector but the lowered expectations are still an improvement over last year’s record numbers and HOV is already trading at last year’s lows, today they will be just above 2004′s low of $30 – this is just silly!

Oil is on the March with more rhetoric out of Iran as their oil minister predicts $100 oil by winter (why wait?) and metals are, of course, keeping pace.

I’m still very iffy on the market but hoping for a strong rally today. Keep your eye on the 30 year as any move over 5.20% will be a bad signal for the markets. The dollar will continue to drop against the yen this week as a Japanese holiday leaves the dollar with no buyers on that side of the Pacific.

Intel needs to lead a SOX rally for us to really get things going otherwise any moves we see may be very short lived.

=====================================

JOE also cut forecasts and, with a p/e of 33 vs. HOV’s 5 (maybe 4.5 today) I think this one does have room to drop. It’s a Cramer stock, which means a lot of people are in it but don’t know why so it could drop fast on a turn in sentiment. The $55 puts are $1.50 for a momentum play but I’m staying out of this one.

I will be looking to pick up HOV Aug $40s for $1 as it drops today but I won’t pay more.

DHI will sell off too. Even though they have forecast solid growth this year, no one will believe them today so I will be looking to pick up Aug $30s for $1.50 but I will consider up to $2 if it doesn’t come down.

These builder plays are small positions as I may have to double down as they could easily drop another level before recovering!

More shame on American car companies as Volkswagen’s net profit is…
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Monday Mop-Up

It’s funny – just about an hour ago I was so close to setting a title of Monday Madness and was thinking of how I would say I was totally wrong to be bearish and dumbfounded by the way the markets were able to shrug off a .17 jump in 30 year rates and a $1.79 rise in oil and finish in the green. But they didn’t. I did not, however, have the conviction to short the Dow, even as it ran up to 1,420 in the morning. It came down on a big volume surge as CNBC reported that Bernanke said that he is by no means doveish on inflation. It’s not the comment per se so much as the markets’ willingness to wipe out 3 days worth of gains in 30 minutes based on almost nothing that bothers me. Still we are holding our technicals, but back to just barely where we were last week. Dramatic turnarounds came from big boys like INTC (+.15 to -.60), GE (+.10 to -20) and AAPL (+$1 to – .79). As expected the lack of movement from the SOX gave the Nasdaq no real chance which held back the markets all day. When the sell-off came, the Nasdaq was the first and hardest hit: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&s=QQQQ&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=&c=%5EGSPC&c=%5EDJI Gold held $660 but you wouldn’t know it from BVN or NEM’s performance. There is a strike threat in a mine the two share in Peru but it is not news and should not cause that kind of damage. GG (best of breed) was up 2.6% on the day and ABX up almost 2%. Oil flew back to just under $74 and oil stocks moved up a good bit which of course means the drop would have been much worse if oil hadn’t held up the Dow and S&P. It’s interesting because the threat of additional Fed tightening threw the oil sector into a tailspin as well. HOV lowered guidance over 10% and is plunging in the after market. This will not bode well for tomorrow’s open. ===================================== BVN shot up and then back down this morning which stopped me out of all my positions so I am just left with the ABX Jun $32.50s, now at .95 (up 40%). PD jumped up too fast and the $90s opened at $2.15, moved to $3.50 before pulling back to $3.10 (up 45%). HAL $80s gave us a nice…
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Monday Morning

Asian markets are down a bit and Europe is down across the board so we are in another one of those days where we just hope we don’t go down.

Today is a day I will be watching the Nasdaq very closely and the SOX will lead the Nasdaq which will lead the other indices so not too much to really watch.

I am leaning towards mostly cash as the global situation is still very dicey.

The dollar is collapsing which will either give us a bottom or signal the beginning of the end. I don’t really care what the markets are doing today if the interest rates are kicking over 5.5%.

At 5.5% you have to think there will be plenty of people who will be tempted to move money out of stocks and into long bonds (although I wouldn’t want to make a long-term commitment to dollars right now) which can’t help the markets in general so we will have to start watching rates very closely for the rest of the month.

Gold hit $660 in Europe today and oil is moving back over $72 and copper broke $330 again but hopefully it will top out here for the sake of construction costs. Copper is a waste product of gold mining and, as gold keeps going up, more copper will be dumped on the market as previously unprofitable mines come on-line.

Now Nigerian militants are targeting Chinese oil companies so we can expect oil to only go one way today! We talked about the rumor (confirmed) build in nat gas that drove the price all the way down to $6.50 on Thursday but that sell-off was way overdone and will bear watching as well.

======================================

I’m almost starting to get the feeling that people know something about ABX that I don’t but I still like Jun $32.50s for .65 if gold holds $650.

The PD $90s dropped to .90 but I doubt you can get them for that price this morning but still make a play if copper breaks $333.

HAL $80s for $1.90 may make a nice play following the Valero Rule very closely and oil has to hold $72 for any positive play to work. Watch SLB too!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HAL&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=slb

That’s it! I am that unsure about the markets today…

I still like my GE’s as a falling dollar is good for them, you could…
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ValueWalk

#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...



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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

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Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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