Archive for 2006

Weeked Wonderings

Here’s a nice NYTimes article on corporate profits – very appropo for earnings searson.

800 companies report this week along with a very busy data week. Don’t’ make any plans for Wednesday with a 10 am existing home sales report, 10:30 oil inventories and a 2:15 Fed decision!

We got to 12,000 – now what? The NYTimes points out that this 1,000 point dow run has taken 14 times longer than the average of the last 7 1,000 point runs (possibly a loss of momentum?):
Times Chart!

How long will long-term rates remain so low? If banks are feeling the pressure to increase profit margins and short-term rates are up to 5.25% (from 1% in June 2004), when will this rubberband snap?

I agree with Bob MacIntosh of Eaton Vance, the Fed must tighten further – I already told Bernanke what he needs to do, now we need to see if they have the courage to pull the trigger on Wednesday! Paul Volcker agrees with both of us.

Friday at 8:30 is the GPD report and CAT says we are looking at 2%, lower than last quarter’s 2.6% and lower than the 2.2% expected by analysts. Caterpillar just had the biggest one-day decline of its stock since Black Monday in October 1987 – they always blame the messenger!

Meanwhile ACI says they see a weak domestic market but that may be just because oil and gas are getting cheap again. Here’s an interesting Dow chart of various highs.

I’m not the only one worried about the transports

Interesting article on how a terrorist attack set off a familiar sounding series of events that led to the fall of the Roman Empire. After you read that, take a look at how far we’ve come in just 6 years!

Conservatives are getting hammered on terrorism as the story is pieced together after all these years. I’m not even going to go into the scandal(s) as there’s enough of that now but there are just 2 weeks left until election day and there’s a real short sentiment on the Republicans all of a sudden.

The Republicans have to be freaking out that Clinton raised $7Bn in 30 days. It puts a little pressure on the Conservatives, who were hoping to raise “just” $300M for the 2006 campaign. Meanwhile…
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Supplies, Supplies, Supplies!

I just saw something I haven’t seen in ages – an ad for gasoline. It was for MRO (10/31) and they are putting STP additives in their gas, so come on down! Marathon is coming off a blowout quarter that cannot be beat.

Of course that got me looking at Marathon, a company I don’t usually watch, and that made me run all the numbers, the way I haven’t done on our usual suspects in a while and I noticed some strange things:

While cash has grown from $1Bn to $3Bn in the past 4 quarters, accounts payable had gone up too, from $6.6Bn to $8.3Bn! Receivables are up just $300M over the same period.

The company bought back $500M worth of stock in the past two quarters and paid $500M in dividends in the past 4 – so, why didn’t they pay their bills? One possible explanation is they are but spending is rising so quickly that they just can’t pay it down fast enough.

Analysts are expecting MRO to rack up earnings of $3.57, substantially lower than the $4.16 they made last quarter but still 75% higher than last year’s $2.16.

Last October 20th MRO was trading at $56.28 and oil was $60 so with oil down at $60 again I have to like the $85 puts for $2.80, especially if they come down a little. I also will be watching the $80 puts at $1.30 with great interest as a possible roll.
http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?mro

But that’s not what I found REALLY interesting

I noticed something in Marathon’s numbers that I hadn’t noticed in my usual oil plays. I guess coming in to a fresh company gave me a different perspective, but here’s something that should unnerve any retail analyst:

Inventories are rising!

Since last September, Marathon’s inventory is up $500M, from $3.3Bn to $3.8Bn.

How can that be? Don’t they know there’s an oil shortage? Don’t they know OPEC can barely keep up with demand?
OPEC Spare Capacity Chart – SHOCKING (and from OPEC themselves)!

While inventory did draw down $300M in the post Katrina/Rita Q4 last year, it has risen $800M ($400M in Q1 and $400M in Q2) since then! Gosh that’s a lot of oil! Especially when you consider that the company “only” sold $18Bn of it last quarter. That’s a 2.5% sequential inventory build-up…

Just like any good…
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Bad Connections

Mobile phone shipments hit an all-time record this quarter with 256M sold worldwide in Q3, up 22% from last year. A good portion of those phones were very low margin models sold in “second world” countries like China and India so of course the phones are cheaper – welcome to the new paradigm!

NOK sold 89M of those phones! 35% (up from 33% last Q) of the global market just doesn’t impress US analysts… Nokia projects a strong Q4 with over to 100M handsets generating roughly $1.2Bn but the average profit of $117 per phone is below analysts forecasts of $125 per phone due to the weighting in “emerging markets.”

The bottom line is that NOK’s p/e is down to 16 and falling, but much higher than MOT’s 12 and falling. Both are well below the industry average of 25, but that includes a lot of companies you’d rather not own!

So I still like NOK long-term but we need to see where it settles before jumping back in. These earnings come as no surprise to the phone makers so we can expect that both Nokia and Motorola, over half the world’s phone market, have already put the squeeze on suppliers like TXN (10/23), QCOM (11/2) and BRCM (earnings delayed by shenanigans) and, judging from all three’s performance of late, some of that is already priced in.

One big factor is Qualcomm is suing and being sued by pretty much everyone else, claiming its 1,800 patents are being infringed on. Maybe they are but nobody likes a crybaby (look at that what-his-name company that sued RIMM – sure they got paid but now they are gone and richer but no wiser) so QCOM shares are off 25% from May while BRCM is off 40%.

QCOM already gets $2.3Bn in royalties and everyone is complaining that they are being squeezed by Pau Jacobs, the new CEO, son of ex-CEO Irwin Jacobs, who actually did invent CDMA (but the whole thing was Star Trek’s idea first!).

Much like OPEC, QCOM is in an end-run as new technologies loom on the horizon which will make their patents less valuable over time and they are looking to maximize what revenues they can while it lasts.

Qualcomm is heading for it’s day in the European courts, the same ones that fined Microsoft $1Bn and ordered them to play nicely so…
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Weekly Wrap-Up

12,002.37! We finished the week above 12,000 – Wow!

What a wild week it was! We had a lot of paper pain from our November oil puts but a ridiculous run on XOM and VLO put our covers far enough into the money to save October. We won’t be so lucky if we are wrong about November as I called a top on oil Wenesday and removed the covers on the remaining puts.

We closed just 27 positions this week for a 22% gain on 14 average days held. That includes 5 total losses on MS (2), GS (2) and a YHOO. That leaves us with 43 open positions that have been open for an average of 16 days with a 27% loss due to the horendous performance of our oil puts.

This relatively poor week drops our monthly total to a 53% profit on 94 positions held an average of 8 days but it’s all relative as these are very small positions compared to the ones we won with. As I said on 9/29:

Of course we will watch the Dow but I’m moving into 85-90% cash over the weekend. If I LOVE a position, I sell 80% of it – so keep that in mind as we talk about open positions. If we confirm a real rally next week we still have a good 300 points to go before our next real Dow resistance at 12,000 (still 4,000 behind the Nikkei) and I’m sure we’ll find something to trade…

Just 2 days later on October 1st I said:

Despite my best efforts, we still have 35 open positions, but they represent a lot of rolls from positions that topped out and opposite sides of spreads that closed well. By themselves, they are a sad lot of open positions with no profit as a group after 10 average days.Think of them as more of a watch list than positions I reccommend.

My primary signal that the market was turning was our generally optimistic virtual portfolio’s performance dropping from a 90% return in week 2 of September to 27% in week 3. We did manage to close out 58 positions at 59% for this week but those are gone and just represent numbers on the balance sheet now (get spreadsheet here). As I said, the remaining positions, which are at 0% could be taken off the
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The Friday that Matters

Dow 12,000 party time, party time, woo woo!!!!

Oh, am I late?

There is nothing worse than showing up late for a party when all the people are already drunk and overpaying for everything (SNDK, BBY, Oil) and all the really great girls (GOOG, AAPL) have already hooked up with investors.

Now is the time to exercise a little caution before we get stuck in a very dull conversation with a “value” company or get into a fight with a rowdy commodity sector that’s just trying to impress his hedge fund buddies before they get bored and move on to the next thing (maybe that cute nanotech sitting in the corner!).

Somebody called the cops already and officer CAT just showed up and told the kids to keep it down a little. On the other hand MRK just showed up with some profitable new drugs, which might make things interesting…

Finally we will get a good test of the markets resolve, which so far has been unquestioning as it marched towards the 12,000 mark but, now that we have been to the mountaintop, will we be able to go forth into the promised land of 15,000 (still lower than the Nikkei)?

Asia threw their own party and the Nikkei hit 16,651 – not bad considering that, until just 2 years ago, they tracked neck and neck with US indices! Inflation in Europe is causing the ECB to tighten, which will put additional pressure on the Fed to do the same.

The Dow needs to hold its new level in order to make it more than a spike but it could fall all the way to 11,850 without really showing signs of weakness. The S&P has been edging above 1,365 and it would be very nice if it maintains that level or some of our party guests may start heading for the exits. When the S&P goes below 1,350, you will know it is time to go home!

Let’s keep our eye on the NYSE today, as a break above 8,700 will bring some fresh blood into the game – but that’s not likely today.

Although they have been a long-term leader, over the past 3 months the NYSE has fallen behind the other indexes. On the same chart, we can see the Nasdaq has been the clear leader, outpacing the others by…
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Sandisk – Not So Terrible!

SNDK is down 14% in pre-market and makes a very tempting buy but waiting is a virtue here as I expect a round of downgrades and we will take a hard look at it if we can pick it up around $40. It seems to me people are overreacting to margins, which fell from 37% to 32% over the past year.

A large part of this fall was due to the company’s move to sell their own MP3 players. Their problems weren’t all about the MP3s but they intended to stuff all those expensive Flash chips into them, so not only are they clogging up the warehouse but chips they usually would have gotten out the door (had they sold them to someone else) are now sitting around as unsold inventory.

They claim an 18% market share in a very slow quarter but that 18% number will come back to haunt them if it goes down in Q4, even if earnings right themselves but, like I have said, they are a “volatile” stock and this whole thing may be a nice way to shake out the retail buyers before Q4.

The analysts are focused on a “60% drop in average selling price per Mb.

Wow that’s silly! So they can now give your much more storage for less money and people think that’s bad? Better dump Intel too based on that logic, more ticks per buck over there for the past 20 years!

Eli Harari (CEO) said: “We expect to benefit in the fourth quarter from projected seasonally strong holiday sales of digital cameras, handsets, flash audio players, USB flash drives and gaming consoles and we now believe growth in our megabytes sold will be approximately 200% for 2006.”

Sales were up 27% to $751M, a $14M beat. Income is .61 a share vs .57 and the big costs were R&D and marketing – no surprise there with a new product roll-out. The real concern for the company is the “inventory glut” of flash memory chips, a problem that led Sandisk to start stuffing them into MP3 players in the first place.

Unlike OPEC, Sandisk is dealing with their inventory surplus by lowering prices to spur demand; we’ll see who is smarter next quarter.

So far this year (9 months):

Revenues are up from $1.4Bn to $1.85Bn.
Income is down from $252M to $234M

What impacted earnings?

R&D is…
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Thursday Wrap-Up 12,000!

The Dow finally broke 12,000!

13 of the 15 components were down but we got our 8 points and that’s all that does matter!!!

We got leadership from GM, HPQ (who made it back to yesterday’s open), KO (pat, pat), MMM, MO, T, VZ and XOM as the group that gained more than half a point.

The S&P has too many companies to pick apart but they gained a whole point! That’s .07%!!! They NYSE sure showed them by jumping .43% and the Nasdaq took a wrong turn in Albuquerque but managed to rally it’s way up .16%. Stellar!!!

Faced with such obvious buying conviction we can only look upwards where we would not see the SOX, which finished just below 450 but we would finally find the transports, which came to rest exactly at 2,600.

None of these things matter because GOOGLE HAD PHENOMINAL EARNINGS!

So amazing that I think Cramer’s $500 target may be in jeopardy to the upside, either by the end of the year or perhaps after next quarter. This is just what the Nasdaq needed to kick it back in gear so let’s hope it sticks tomorrow.

If you have any remaining Google calls from our picks on September 11th, September 19th or even today’s comment spread of the Nov $440s for $13 and the Nov $410 puts for $12, then please don’t forget our adage: Always sell into the initial excitement!

You don’t have to sell it all, but take half off and keep an eye on the rest. Sure it may go up more, but it will have to go up a heck of a lot more to catch up to that inflated premium you get as your stock goes up like a rocket.

Speaking of rockets, OPEC had their emergency meeting today and decided to cut 1.2M barrels of oil from their daily delivery schedule (because they don’t produce it, it’s just sitting there in the ground). Reductions are to begin November 1st and another meeting will be held in December to see if anyone takes them seriously.

Zman makes a good point with this chart, which shows us what is considered an “emergency” price problem for OPEC:
https://zmann.wordpress.com/files/2006/10/lpec-annual.JPG

Now, I am a big advocate of free trade but I’m also a big fan of a level playing field. For many years we’ve…
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Thrill a minute Thursday

We’ve got it all today: OPEC meetings, great and terrible earnings, the Philly Fed (a real downer last month), natural gas inventories and, at the end of day – Google earnings and the money supply!

If that’s not enough to wake up the Vix then it is well and truly dead. I mentioned yesterday that the VIX is losing its value as an indicator, Fred Ruffy took the trouble to explain it in detail for us!

Asia took a little dip today as China’s economy is finally slowing down a touch. We discussed the ridiculous propaganda that oil pumpers throw out about unlimited Chinese demand over a week ago and now it’s in the Journal – I must be slowing down!

One drag on Asia was bad news from Sony as they lowered guidance. Here’s today’s headline on Sony and here’s what I said on Tuesday (pat pat):

SNE is finally recalling batteries in their own computers! The company says they are ‘considering whether is need to revise its earnings outlook.” Gee, ya think? The stock rallied back $3 in the past week and is projected to earn $1Bn but I see 4M Dell recalls, 2M Apple recalls and more than a Million other miscellaneous companies times $100 (guessing) per battery = $700M + shipping.“”Obviously not all the batteries will be returned but every one that isn’t is a potential fire lawsuit. I wonder what kind of batteries are in those little PSPs? The Nov $40 puts are .90.”

Europe is down, not being quite sure what to make of last night’s earnings reports but ERIC posted a 17% profit gain, NVS gained 13% on great sales, close to double expectations and SAP hit 16% on the revenue side despite slightly disappointing sales.

These are really good numbers folks, despite market reactions!

Unfortunately it looks like both Ericsson and Motorola kicked Nokia’s but. As I predicted on Tuesday, I now regret not getting out of NOK at .70 when I had the chance!

Also in Europe, Putin continues to crack down, turning his attention to those meddling foreign “do gooders” by regulating them into submission.

Back home we will see if we get another shot at that pesky 12,000 mark but it won’t mean a thing if we can’t close there.

Let’s watch that S&P 1,360 mark for…
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Wednesday Wrap-Up

Another day another record for the Dow – ho hum…

SOX down 3% – didn’t matter! Transports down 1.5% – does not matter! Oil sector off 2% – doesn’t matter! Core CPI at a decade record 2.9% – It Just Doesn’t Matter!

Nope, none of it mattered as the Dow (we’ll have to start calling him Mr. Jones soon!) zoomed up to 12,050 before it realized it had left the other indices behind and settled down at 11,992 setting an intra-day and end-of-day record.

Once again HPQ led the way, giving us a clear early top, an 11 am bottom and let us know the day was a fizzle when it was rejected from even at 12:50. Just to be clear, these tracking stocks don’t last forever but, while they work – they work!

Aside from IBM’s stellar 3% performance JNJ also ran up 3%. The JNJ Oct $65s were one of my few losing picks in the week of September 15th. That’s right, I got fed up and dumped them (kick, kick).

Oh well, can’t win them all can we?

The S&P barely won this one but held on to finish up 0.14% at 1,365 with just a brief visit in the red today. The NYSE outperformed the S&P by 0.06% and finished at 8.663 while the Nasdaq actually dropped (are they allowed to do that?) and finished at 2,337.

As I mentioned, SOX and Transports were huge disappointments that didn’t matter to the Dow and we got a real mixed bag of earnings tonight so we will see what matters tomorrow.

Oil took a little spill and ended up back at $57.67, lower than the spike of October 4th and lower than any price this year. As Zman points out in his blog, the growing disparity between the actual price of oil and the sector is unlikely to continue.

I took a chance and called a top on oil at 11:41 in comments by removing my November oil covers and transferring the cash to my existing puts so I could set a realistic stop (XOM $70.25) and walk away. Well that couldn’t have worked out more perfectly!

While I admit the drawdown in distillates and gasoline threw me for a loop at first, I decided that all it meant was that inventories were overflowing as refinery utilization dropped 3% (5M…
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Wild Wednesday

Get ready for anything today! With IBM’s earnings, today should be the day for 12,000 but – you never know…

We have the CPI at 8:30 and if it’s as inflationary as the PPI was yesterday we should get a real sell-off but the CPI does not tend to be as volatile and that’s where bets are being placed this morning.

Asia took last night’s mixed earnings report with a shrug and were up slightly across the board, India traded down slightly as profit taking kicks in coming into next week’s 3-day holiday. Europe is up a bit ahead of our open. Indian Tata Steel is buying UK Corus for $8Bn, this indicates a shift in Indian policy that may drive additional acquisitions.

As we could go either way at home lets keep our eye on good and bad levels for our indices:

  • Dow 12,000 good, 11,900 OK, 11,865 bad
  • S&P 1,370 good, 1,360 OK, 1,350 bad
  • NYSE 8,700 good, 8,600 OK, 8,500 bad
  • Nasdaq 2,375 good, 2,330 OK, 2,300 bad
  • SOX 478 good, 470 OK, 460 bad (so watch closely!)
  • Trans 2,650 good, 2,600 OK, 2,550 bad

See how easy it is to play the markets? Don’t buy when things are bad, don’t short when things are good – hardly worth watching.

What I am sick of watching is this oil farce as they jacked Brent crude up from a loss to a gain this morning. Crude is, according to CNBC, still trading at $58.44 (7:25) but this will be tricky as contracts roll over.

We should get a nice downward move for the oil sector in the morning, but I will have a very itchy trigger finger on those October puts we picked up at yesterday’s close.

The big oil news today will be OXY’s earnings and it looks like I was right on the oil side but they were saved by their chemicals business, which benefited from lower oil. It will be all about the inventories later to set a real direction!

Assuming we stick with the current contract today, let’s continue to eye the $59 line, which has firmed up nicely as a top and, of course, a dip back into the $57s will be very good for oil puts today. I wouldn’t consider making an oil move that isn’t confirmed by the Valero Rule this week!

Gold is still on a quest…
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Zero Hedge

Enemy Of The People?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via The Zman blog,

There has never been a time when normal people did not know the media was biased and biased in a predictable direction. For every non-liberal in the media, there were at least ten liberals. The ratio was probably higher, but then, as now, some lefties liked to pretend they were independents or some third option.

The media used to invest a lot of time denying they had a bias and an agenda, but the only people who believed them were on the Left, which had the odd effect of confirming they had a bias and an agenda.

...



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Phil's Favorites

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

 

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

Courtesy of 

Shout to Leigh!

On the new Talk Your Book – Josh Brown is joined by Leigh Drogen of Estimize, one of the leading providers of crowdsourced financial and economic data to talk about the trend in corporate profits that could potentially lead to an earnings recession later this year.

What is the thing that Leigh is seeing in the data that Wall Street isn’t yet picking up on? What segment of the stock market is most at risk? Why is the crowd smarter than the narrow consensus of Wall Street analysts?

Check out Estimize ...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Testing Important Breakout Levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold and Silver from a long-term perspective have created a series of lower highs over the past 8-years. Will 2019 bring a change to this trend? A big test is in play!

Gold since the lows in 2016 has created a series of higher lows, while Silver may have created a double bottom.

Gold & Silver are currently facing break attempts a (1) and (2). These falling resistance lines have disappointed metals bulls for the past few years.

The direction of Gold and Silver weeks and months from now should be highly influenced by what each does as they are attempting to break above important resistance levels.

To become a member of Kimbl...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

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Digital Currencies

Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While the market has been increasingly focused on the rising headwinds in the global economy in general, and China's economic slowdown in particular, while the media is obsessing over daily revelations that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia to get elected, a far more critical, if underreported, shift has been taking place over the past year.

As we reported in June, whether due to concerns over draconian western sanctions and asset confiscations following the poisoning of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, or simply because it wanted to diversify away from the dollar, Russia liquidated virtually all of its Treasury holdings in the late spri...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's failure based on his personality, which was evident years ago. This article, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump became president, in July, 2016, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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