Archive for 2006

Forgotten Trades

Arnie made a comment the other day that we all have very short trading time-frames and it really hurt my feelings (as you all know, I’m the shy, sensitive type).

I am not a day trader!  I am not adverse to taking profits during the day – but that does not make me a day trader…

I take a lot of long positions but, as I have mentioned often before, I generally tend to stop worrying about them once they make over 20% as I just set my stop (-20% of the profits) and forget about them.  Tracking a bunch of Jan ’09 leaps every week would make for a very dull column!

This column is generally about short-term options, not stocks or leaps, which are very, very dull but I am very, very good at picking those – probably better than I am at close options.  As I always say, the close options are for play money while we watch our real plays take shape! 

The last time I touched base with these picks was August 3rd so I think we can indulge ourselves once a quarter to see how I’m doing.  I am listing them all, the good, the bad and the ugly because I don’t want you to think I’m cherry picking (as embarrassing as some of these picks are!).

I’m sorry that the original picks are all buried at the old blogspot account (and I’m in no mood to dig them out of that mess) but we’ll fix it all on the new site (I hope!).  I apologize for not having all the exact start dates but if I didn’t find them in August, I’ll never find them now!

From 8/3 picks on you’ll notice a different format as I’m trying to bring this fully up to date.

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Sometimes it’s nice to just buy something and walk away for a while… AAPL Jan $55s seemed expensive at $9.40 on 6/20 but we held through the dip by selling the July $60s and collecting $2.50, lowering our base to $6.90.  They currently trade at $31.50 (up 357%).

I got tired of waiting for ADM Jan $35 puts (9/18 – $1.35) as they were the protective side of a spread but I should have let them play out, now $2 (up 48%).

I always play the Boeing Buddies (TM) but I hate to sound like a…
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Weekly Wrap-Up

What a way to end the week!

Dow and S&P records going into the weekend – now that’s investor confidence!  Minor pullbacks from the other indices but all well within our comfort levels, including the transports who came within 5 points of my target of 2,675 (despite the decline in oil) but closed at a comfortable 2,691.

You’ve got to love it when every single index we track hits our predictions on the nose!

It’s been a good week for predictions in general – in comments at 9:23 I recommended a day trade on the Dow: “I’m going to be checking out the DIA $122 and $123 calls if the market takes a nice dip.  I’m looking for a bounce at $122.70.”

Here’s the chart, bottoming at $122.67 at 9:39!  Needless to say that trade went very well with the DIA $122s coming in at .75 and finishing at $1.20 (up 60%) and the $123s coming in at .10 and giving us a quarter at the close (up 150%).

But that was not our best trade of the day!  That hardly rates a mention compared to the ICE trades!

We had a great session Thursday deciding how to take advantage of the NMX IPO and we decided that the ICEwould be a beneficiary and we picked up the Dec $85s for $12.30.  They finished the day at $17 (up 38%) but I lost a dollar if it going out and in on an early dip so I took half off the table at $20 (up 63%).

At 10:01 I decided to make a $1.50 offer on the $95s and by 10:04 it got away from me but filled at $1.20 just 10 minutes later.  We exited that one at 11:30 for $9 - 650% in one hour!  That’s a pretty good annual rate of return folks!  It also turned out to be the EXACT top of the day so I’m very, very proud of myself (pat, pat).

Congrats to everyone who played along at home – now that the earnings nonsense is over, we can concentrate on situational trades like this on the pro site.

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stocks and shares cartoons, stocks and shares cartoon, stocks and shares picture, stocks and shares pictures, stocks and shares image, stocks and shares images, stocks and shares illustration, stocks and shares illustrations 

On the whole it was in incredible week, we even started making some money on oil puts again!

Relentless doubling down strained my position limit and left me unable to add positions to take advantage of Thursday’s drop but I was happy…
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Friday Morning

Well, we’re up 200 points for the week so far.

Keep that in perspective if we drop 50 points and Don’t Panic – it will take a drop of more than 100 points to erase the week’s very bullish tone.

Oil is printing (at 5:30) $55.79 in European trading but Brent crude is still higher ($58.23) and I imagine there’s a difference in the contract.  The Brent contract fell $3.07 yesterday as it was much higher than ours ($61.30). 

It was 60 degrees in NJ last night and the 15 day forecast says no freezing temperatures until December 1st but the warm weather IS breaking and we know how shocked energy traders are when it gets cold in the winter!

Of course today is options expiration day and only a fool tries to guess the markets today so here goes:

There’s only 2 levels to watch today, amazing (almost any gain) and uh-oh, the point at which some panic will occur:

  • Dow 12,300 plus is great but below 12,200 will create doubt that we can’t afford as we try to achieve escape velocity.
  • S&P cannot be expected to break 1,400 on no news and doing so would be a major bull signal but we’d really hate to lose 1,390 and even 1,395 will be a concern.
  • NYSE is losing its leadership and will be weighed down on commodity weakness as well.  If 8,850 holds it will be a very good sign.
  • Nasdaq needs to take the lead and break 2,450 and 2,425 will be a problem already.
  • Russell must hold 790, and that’s a lot to ask as it just got there and needs a rest but the floor is too weak to test.

The SOX are free to retest 480 without looking weak while the transports have earned themselves a free pass all the way to 2,675 (down 45) after gaining 150 points in 5 sessions. 

I hate to repeat myself but I will just reprint what I wrote on Wednesday which was a reprint of what I wrote the week before as it was exactly correct:

“You have to ignore the dollar amount on this chart as it’s based on a continuous contract price but the moving average is fulfilling my prediction of last week:   ”Oil could go either way today but showed real weakness at the $60 level of late as the rapidly falling 50 dma races
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Thrilling Thursday Wrap-Up

Wow!  Another huge day.

Dow 12,305, this is almost sub-orbital.  The S&P was slightly more subdued at 1,399 and that extra point might be a tough one.

The NYSE held firm at 8,894 – a little disturbing but understandable in a commodity sell-off.  The Nasdaq also hit a wall at 2,449 but, on the bright side, we won’t have a hard time guaging direction tomorrow!

The Russell also flatlined but held 790 and the SOX closed right in the middle at 485.   Only the transports jointed the Dow in their certainty that $56 oil was “a good thing.”

Oil was indeed a good thing today with a well lubricated slide all the way down to $56.26 blowing trough my target for the week.  Was this a genuine sell-off or did it realate to the IPO of the NYMEX tomorrow as the easily manipulated market may have been taken down to free up some of the oversubscribed shares?

No matter what it was it certainly panicked the roaches!  At 10:40, while we waited for a delayed gas inventory report, I mentioned that we got a good, clear short signal from our Valero Group – the first one since last week!

As I predicted, the return of volume heralded a big sell-off in Exxon.  In comments, I calculated that 400M shares of XOM changed hands above $70 since 10/15.  If 22M shares a day are trying to get out before they go red, these guys could be living in a 20-story Tower of Pain!

Even if there is more selling tomorrow, it may be just the expiration of the December contract coupled with a lack of cheap storage that is driving the sell-off.  Tune in Monday to see where the week will take us!

Don’t blame the dollar, it moved up .18% – not enough to move crude or gold which closed at $625.

===================================

Earnings were a mixed bag today but the market really perked up as commodities sold off but the irrational exhuberance seems to be over as poor performances are not being given a free pass.

ANF Dec 75s jumped back to $74 after lunch but then pulled back to stop us out at $2.05 (up 41%).

We need those huge profits because BEAS is a wipe-out so far!

COST Dec $55s came in at .75 on a morning sell-off and finished up 25% at $1.

I’m glad we…
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Thursday Morning

The CPI is out today.

I expect it to be not as tame as the PPI because consumers don’t have departments whose sole job is to make sure they don’t overpay for things, but we should get some trickle down improvement, at least as a slowing of inflation.  Anything else will be a big disappointment although I don’t see how anyone can complain about sub 3% inflation.

Asia was fairly flat, taking a well-deserved rest today and the BOJ held rates steady at .25% which should boost the buck a bit.  It’s very tricky for Japan, who have to double the rates in order to raise them a quarter point…

Europe has no idea what to do ahead of our CPI report so we will ignore them but we do want to see if the FTSE can break 6,250.

I should really wait 90 minutes as it will all change but let’s see if I get this right:

The Dow needs to break 12,300 TODAY in order to really bring in some new money.  Falling all the way to 12,100 would still be fine if we hold it but will sideline new money for quite a while.

The S&P tested 1,400 yesterday and it will be amazing if they break it and 1.390 is a very soft floor.  The NYSE is at 8,901 and holding that level will be huge – let’s look for them for early inidcations of trouble.  The Nasdaq touched 2,450 yesterday and now it has to buy it or get out.

The SOX broke 480, which was a huge barrier last fall and led to the mega semi rally in January.  We are still 75 points (15%) below those highs.  Transports are looking to take out 2,700, on their way to a retest of 2,800 – which may mark a top for now.

[Crude Oil]

Oil is going to try to hold $59 again as traders are stunned by the possibility of cold weather may hit the US in the winter.  There’s a gas inventory report today that is sure to make XOM move up whether it’s a build or a draw or a steep decline.

Ticker Sense has a nice gas chartand postulates that, even if we have the biggest drawdown in gas ever this winter, we will still hit the spring with above average inventories.

I wish I could tell you that makes for…
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Wednesday Wrap-Up

Another day another record high.

There’s a terrible moment, when you try to launch into orbit, when all the engines need to fire in sync – otherwise the rocket can spin out of control.

We fired on all cylinders today!  The NYSE was the last index to go positive at 10:40 and our whole group pulled back less than 50% off the 2pm peak finishing at new highs.

In addition to a stellar performance from all our indices, we have the transports gapping up over 2,650 resistance and finishing at the HOD while the SOX tested 480 and 490 and decided 484 was a good place to finish (up .4%).

Oil was up a dollar and retraced half of it at the close to finish at $58.76, still within our comfort zone but, as usual, the oil stocks went crazy on the lack of falling.

You have to ignore the dollar amount on this chart as it’s based on a continuous contract price but the moving average is fulfilling my prediction of last week:   ”Oil could go either way today but showed real weakness at the $60 level of late as the rapidly falling 50 dma races down towards it.  My downside target remains $57.14 but first we have to get a close back below $58.56 first.

Today’s inventory report showed a build in crude of 1.3Mb but a draw in gasoline of 3.7Mb and a draw in distillates of 3.6Mb BUT refinery utilization dropped .8%, accounting for 1.3Mb of the draw while actual demand for gasoline was down, indicating retailer stockpiling as oil dipped to $57 last week.

Gold was flat at $624 as the dollar held steady as well on a mixed Fed report.

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Cramer says Zune is not compatible with Vista?  Surely they cannot be that stupid?  Hmm, well surely they can be that stupid but THAT STUPID???  Er, anyone want some MSFT calls???

Zune does look DOA but you can’t say it’s been scaring AAPL buyers unless the stock should be at $120 and has been held down to a mere $85 on fear of the competition.

Zune is awsome!  According to this totally independant blogger (yeah, right) at http://www.zunescene.com/

Here’s CNN trying to figure out what is good about Zune! 

zune productionzune review

While I don’t think not selling 5M Zunes for $1Bn will hurt MSFT’s $50Bn projected sales next year (so…
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Which Way Wednesday?

Was that it or are we just getting started?

Japan took some profits today but the Hang Seng (who barely pulled back) jumped 200 points, just 70 points shy of another new high.

The CEO of WuMart (Chinese version of Wal-Mart) resigned under investigation for some sort of shenanigans.  The stock has gained 85% since its IPO in 2003 and we were just having a conversation about CMED and why I don’t like Chinese stocks so here’s a good example.  At least when our CEOs get investigated you have 3 or 4 years before they have to resign!

Speaking of China, Wikimedia (my favorite on-line reference) is back on-line in China.  This is a very interesting policy change so I hope it sticks… 

Speaking of free press, Al-Jazeera launches their English news channel today, which will bring them to more homes globally than Fox news!  I’d love to A/B those two networks on the same story! 

Europe is in  a pretty good mood this morning (must be that Al-Jazeera zoo crew!)  with all the exchanges pointing higher.  I’m going to start watching the FTSE (the Euro Dow) to see if they can break out of that 6,250 range to make a new top.

Meawhile, everyone is shorting this top so either everyone is right or we will reach escape velocity on a lot of short covering this week and next.

Let’s keep an eye on INTC, whose 4% gain drove the markets yesterday.  I will be thrilled if we can hold these new tops and we need tech leadership to keep this party going and a commodity pullback may stall things today.

Questions for the day:

  • Does the Dow hold 12,200?
  • Can the S&P maintian 1,390?
  • Is the NYSE serious about 8,850?
  • Will 2,425 be support for the Nasdaq?

The Russell also bears watching at 780 but it is pure greed to expect them to hold a 2% 2-day gainAs long as our majors don’t pull back more than half a pont, we are in fine, fine shape!

Oil is in for a bumpy ride today so good luck to all as I will be at meetings most of the day and will miss the fun.

Crude is expected to build 1.2M barrels and a small draw on distillates is expected.  As Zman properly points out, the pump crew makes a big deal
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Terrific Tuesday Wrap-Up

Well I said it was going to be a tricky day and it was – for the shorts! 

After taking what, to me, was a surprising early dip, the indices perked back up around 12:30.  As I said in comments when I came back at 1:20: “Holy Buying Opportunities Batman!

In case new readers missed it, I talked about all this happening just before Halloween when I decided to flip into bull mode.

We got great entry positions on everything we wanted and didn’t have to wait long to feel good about our purchases.

Did we hit all of our watch levels?

Dow 12,200 – check.  S&P 1,390 – check.  NYSE 8,873 – check.  Nasdaq 2,400 – check.  Russell 785 – check.  SOX 480 – check.  Transports 2,650 – check.

Isn’t this the part where someone says “prepare for liftoff“?  We used the rocket example to assess the situation back on 10/27 so I won’t rehash it here but we are certainly in launch mode and now we have to see if we have enough fuel to reach escape velocity.

One part of the economy that may be succumbing to gravity (finally) is the energy sector.  XOM could not get positive this morning  despite a big open for oil and it only attracted 17M shares worth of buyers for the 3rd time in 2 weeks.

Volume has been so low on XOM this past month that it has pulled the 3 month daily average below 22M for the first time in 6 months, when the stock traded at $60.  Still, at $74 a share, 17M shares represent $1.25B a day.

We already know that XOM is buying about 10% of that themselves, at a cost of $100M per day but they still need to pull $1.1B into that roach motel of theirs in order not to panic the ones that are already in and starting to wonder why the floor is so sticky.

Here’s a funny chart I’ll entitle “A Tale of Two Commodities.”

Oil itself had a rough day, so we won’t pick on it.  Crude tested $59.15 early but then drifted before ending the day very near the low at $58.28.

Here’s an interesting 3 year comparison chart where the heavy volume selling does not seem to bode well for crude at this level.  Notice how far it’s veered from the green projected path this week!

We’ll see if we hold…
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Tuesday Morning

Another tricky day!

Asia is way up with the Nikkei jumping 267 points off the 200 dma/psychological 16,000 mark.  Japan’s economy grew at 2%, vs. the 1.5% expected as the US consumers made up for lackluster consumer spending at home.  This could be a best of both worlds for us as their economy is picking up and they still have no reason to raise rates.

Unfortunately, this gives oil an excuse to go up a bit as they are the second biggest economy in the world (1/3 the US) although they do conserve better than we do!

China, on the other hand, has a problem.  Their money supply is up 17% for the year, mostly because we keep giving it to them!  This is very inflationary and that’s not good when you have 900M farmers in your country… 

As we are making nice with Vietnam now, we are removing them from the list of countries that violate religious freedom just day’s ahead of Bush’s visit.  Isn’t that special?

Europe opened well but is now (6am) thinking better of it, possibly as oil spiked up on the Japan GDP.  I think this is a wrong take because neither the US or Japan base as much of their economic growth on manufacturing as they used to but we know energy traders will take any excuse to raise prices!

At home we have a slight miss from HD but a 5% beat from WMT – who hit the top of their range at .63 on slightly lower revenues, which should help the Dow and encourage the retail sector (though I want to see TGT before I get excited).  HD saw a big drop in big ticket purchases and blames the housing slowdown which may spook the markets.

There was a mass kidnapping in Iraq of 150 people early this morning, I wonder if it will even make the news here?

Today’s watch numbers are:

  • Dow under 12,100 = bad, anything over is still good
  • S&P breaking 1,390 will be a new high, 1,380 needs to hold
  • NYSE needs to hold 8,800 with a new high at 8,873
  • Nasdaq just broke 2,400 so just holding it will be great!
  • RUT is above 770 (last week’s target) and I want to get greedy and look for a new high at 785 this week.

The SOX is nervously waiting the outcome of the Vista release. …
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Monday Mop-Up

That went just fine for a Monday!

Our indexes were strong all day, only slightl spooked by the 2pm oil pump (which ultimately failed).

The Dow built up a nice buffer and finished at 12,131 while the S&P hit 1,384, the Nasdaq led the pack with a new high at 2,406 while the NYSE dragged along with a 4 point loss (still 8,823).

The SOX retested the 200 dma and finished just under at 468 and the transports reached a 4-month high of 2,643, still 10% below the May highs.  For the transports, last winter was the high of the year as it was they year before that.

Oil had a really rough day and the pumpers are running into heavy resistance as you can see from the volumes on this USO chart.

Crude finished down a buck at $58.58, a penny above my old, non-dollar adjusted target.  We need to break the true international level of $58.39 to confirm a downward momentum.  A close below that may lead to another nice move down with our US target of $57.15 and our world price of $56.89 as the next stops.

Gold dropped $4 to finish the day at $624 as the dollar moved up .34, hopefully firming up over 85.

Bottom line:  Oil is falling twice as fast as the dollar is rising and the dollar is 1.50 below its 200 dma so it will take very little to bring oil back down to $55.  If the ECP and the BOJ do not raise rates (right before Christmas) it will both strenghen the US Dollar and signal weakness in the global economy – also bad for oil and good for the dollar.

The dollar is, in fact underinvested by most foreign traders as the US currency has been long out of favor (Buffet was famously short last year).

================================

 Our weekend picks did fairly well today.

 I made a mistake with ATVI, as the earnings were last Monday so that was a no trade.  KNOT did as expected but jumped up too fast on the way to a 7% gain so no entry there either but we’ll keep an eye on it.

GE took off too fast as did NTFY.  BBY missed by .40 and I didn’t chase.  Cramer got on the TM bandwagon yesterday but he’s not big enough to move that stock but it might mean it’s not going any lower…

AEP
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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.

By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS, although on many months the (balance sheet) B/S does not actually shrink by this full amount which depends on the redemption schedule) and by end-Q4 markets also experienced some of the largest volatility and drawdowns in nearly a decade.

As Nomura&...



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ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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