Archive for 2006

Weekly Wrap-Up

I know, I know, you were thinking I lost it around 1pm. You were thinking, darn that Phil, he got all bearish and scared me out of investing…

Then at 3:30 I got pretty smart again, didn’t I? I’m so glad I was away or I would have been tempted to put some money in myself the way things were going in the early afternoon!

This was exactly what we didn’t want to see – a firm volume rejection of key psychological areas of resistance:

Dow double topped at 11,100:
S&P couldn’t make it to 1,300:
Nasdaq was up and down 35 (1.5%) points in one day!

Now we can blame a lot of this nonsense in the morning on Intel and their earnings warning but that was over by 10:30. I suppose the negative of the day was consumer sentiment which came in at 86.4, down from last month’s 87.4 but, more importantly, confirming a trend from January’s 91.2 (this is not usually such an important indicator but we’ll have to pay more attention next time it is coming out). The ISM numbers were great but I suppose traders are more worried about the consumer petering out this year.

There was even a late sell-off in the oil sector on some pretty good volume, backing up my theory that this is a sham and POO (my new ultra-appropriate term for Price of Oil) is merely being propped up so the big boys can dump out of their bloated oil stocks.

Money is moving from Gold to Silver in anticipation of a new exchange-traded fund on silver that will eat up a lot of supply. To me the problem is going to be storage – I don’t think this will catch on the way gold has as it takes 60 times more space to store the same dollar amount of silver – too much shipping, handling, rent etc. for this to be a viable alternative.

I’m kind of optimistic just at this moment as nothing catastrophic happened this weekend and Warren Buffett’s letter to investors was encouraging, also the AT&T deal was huge and may ignite several sectors but we’ll know more in the morning.


If you read the comments Friday then you know I dumped my longs (from the spread) at the open as they rocketed up (always sell into the uptrend…
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Finally Friday

Asian markets took a dive today but the European markets seem to be shrugging off continuing high oil prices and remaining relatively flat. Now that the Japan Fed is heading into a tightening cycle, their markets may not look as attractive. It will take several years to wean that economy off of 0% interest rates! This is not actually good for us though as clever money people in Asia have been borrowing from Japan and buying US notes and pocketing the difference. While it seems like a no brainer, it’s a tricky game due to currency fluctuations (if the dollar drops, you lose as you have to pay back yen) so this game will quickly come to an end as rates go up in the US. This will push up our long and short rates as money flows out of the system and will pressure the housing market further and may force our Fed to tighten more than people are currently thinking in order to maintain foreign interest in our notes (we are running a deficit that must be covered every month). Oil in Europe is over $64 for Brent Crude, which usually runs cheaper than our West Texas brand, so do not expect a drop before the weekend. Best play on oil is to wait until we either have a resolution in Iran or plain old fear exhaustion next week to short or maybe take a spread into the weekend. Gold will test $570 today as it was the US traders who punched it up yesterday on general fear. We are still more scared of world problems than the people who actually live where the problems are are! (It’s an odd sentence but I think I’ll keep it as it’s Friday and all). I still maintain that – if the markets can ignore $63 oil, terrorism, bird flu, Iran, Iraq, the deficit, rising interest, the declining dollar and a slowing economy – we are in pretty good shape – but don’t count on it! This may be the last day I even bother to list a lot of calls. I’m probably going to be research put plays this weekend as this could get very ugly. If we don’t maintain our levels we may get a big pullback soon, this time to a much lower test and we may set this as the top of our new range. If we…
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Thursday Wrap-Up

Pretty mixed on the whole…

I was distracted all day by silly Google trading but I made a few bucks so I can’t complain. If you want to read all about it you can get the play by play in the morning’s comment section.

The markets held up pretty well but mostly on the energy, commodity, builders – not the way we like it to go but it was exactly what we said would happen so I guess we’ll take it!

Oil shot up an extra dollar at the close to finish at $63.50 but the oil stocks didn’t seem to respond to it as you might have thought.

Gold finally crossed $570 and our gold picks went crazy. I apologize to those of you who didn’t read the comments in the morning as I forgot to put the gold picks in my regular post.

I ended the day about 75% in cash, it will be a tough go to get the markets over the hump tomorrow (maybe impossible with OPEC and Iran to be dealt with next week).


I was so distracted with Google today I missed a lot of perfectly good day trades.

CHK got way overbought in the morning and I did buy the puts on it but a combination of greed and distraction caused me to ignore a clean double with an obvious signal from VLO at 1pm.

RIG popped 2.7% and the $80s finished at $2.05 (up 66%).

THE exploded out of the box and blew through 6% in the morning before settling back at a 5.8% gain. The Apr $40s ended the day at $2.05 (up 50%)

Our other oil picks were flat to down which really indicates to me that most shareholders are taking advantage of this possibly last-gasp runup to dump their positions.

UPL was indeed a good indicator all day and the indication was to stay away from oil!

BZH started the day very low and I meant the $60s this morning for $5.80, not the $65s, which were just $3.10 (first time I’ve done that) but either way they ended flat although there were much cheaper entries to be had. This is another one I should have taken the profits on but was too distracted by Google nonsense…

DHI had a similar up and down day but TOL was our…
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Flashback Thursday

I started writing today’s overview and it started sounding familiar so I took a minute to read my own column (damn I’m good!) and I realized it’s Tuesday again! The technical are in the same place as they were Tuesday morning, Europe is down on higher oil and Asia is mixed… you get the point, just read Tuesday Morning again and save us both a lot of time. Bottom line is that we are either going to firmly establish these levels as a floor or a ceiling today and tomorrow – breaking through will give us many long opportunities while bouncing down will leave a lot of stocks looking very overbought. We do have some choppy retail numbers coming out so be very careful of the nature of any rise today as an energy sector rally will do no real good for the rest of the market. Actually, real estate should get a boost off a HOV beat so we are really flashing back a whole year where real estate, oil and commodities were the only plays. Google will once again make or break the markets and I am leaning towards break but not as much as I was on Tuesday as we have deflated that bubble by 10%. Also different is that there is no Cramer pump as there was Monday night, which put a lot of people into the stock at exactly the wrong time. I will be keeping a spread on GOOG into the conference (which is pretty much all day) looking to pick up more on one side or the other as momentum picks up but I am prepared to give up and take a quick loss before my values deteriorate in case it freezes between $360 and $370 (I doubt it though). I will try to keep posting in today’s comment section in case you’re interested. Speaking of Cramer pumps, it was LVS’s turn last night, see last night’s comments for a detailed report. The ECB raised rates and Japan may as well so the dollar is dropping, this accentuates our market declines to the rest of the world. Oil is putting major pressure on the markets that is not likely to let up through Monday’s UN Security Council meeting on Iran. Also, it is refinery maintenance season when about 10% of our capacity is off-line at any given time, so there’s another $5 added…
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Wild Wednesday

Crazy! It’s like yesterday was a mistake they tried to erase.

I suppose you could say that everyone went home and reflected that they overreacted to Google’s news yesterday but that didn’t help Google, who ended the day flat, still $110 off it’s Jan high.

Although there was a lot of energy and commodity gains, the broad market was a sea of green with an incredible batch of stocks gaining 1% or more. The indices came very close to my targets just today and the way they came out of the gate I was comfortable trading all day. With Dow at 11,150, Nas 2,314 and S&P 1,291 there is nothing to complain about as it more than retraced our losses. From a technical standpoint it gives the weekly charts a nice stair up sort of pattern that looks really positive.

Have I flipped to bull? Not yet, I still want to make the new highs that we talked about this morning but I did leave 1/2 my money in which is a lot more than I’ve been doing.

Oil behaved as expected on an in-line inventory report, it was pumped up right at the close to give it a +.28 for the day, keeping it above that critical $62 mark. Try to remember this is exactly what we wanted because we need to pump these suckers back up so we can short them again!

Gold maintained $565 which put the gold stocks back on the move but we should wait for a $570 confirmation before going back there.


I ended my day on Google with a spread of the $380s and the $350 puts – each for $8.50, looking for $20 in either direction on tomorrow’s conference. My goal is to increase my put position but I wasn’t going to leave anything to chance overnight.

In comments, Christopher pointed out THX as a potentialand I like it enough to mention it here. They are an exploration and production firm that is managing to miss estimates 2 quarters in a row on declining production. Like any good company, they blame the hurricanes (just like our friends at WFMI and look at them now!). Hurricanes notwithstanding, I’m not paying the same price for $4 in earnings as I did for $5 in earnings last year so we can take todays bounce off the 200 dma as an entry point and grab…
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Wary Wednesday

Asian markets picked up our torch and headed for the basement last night but Europe seems to have shrugged it off this morning but the indexes are led by oil and gas, which is not my favorite kind of rally.

Levels to watch are the 50 dmas of the majors: Nasdaq 2,275, S&P 1,275 and Dow 10,900 – Only the Dow is well above the line while the other 2 are right at the edge of a nasty precipice. Most other indices are in the Dow’s position, with quite a bit of room to spare so we need to look at the S&P and the Nasdaq, which treated 2,275 as a solid floor yesterday, for direction.

The S&P has had 2 solid rejections at 1,295 and looks tenuous so this rally will need to be led (just like I’ve said for a month) by the Nasdaq, which needs to break 2,335 to confirm an uptrend.

Oil is heading back towards $62 with a small build expected (600K) and very minor drawdowns (-500K) in refined products predicted at 10:30. Traders feel that the drawdown will be larger as “Summer driving season is upon us” (any excuse to raise prices) and international tensions are still high so we could break $62 is there is any sort of drawdown.

On the other hand, a build of more than 1M barrels could drop us back towards $60 so be prepared to play oil either way if you are inclined to day trade them, paying close attention to the Valero Rule! The problem with a drop in oil stocks is that it will drag the markets down and they are jittery enough today so be very, very careful out there!

I’m not too wild about buying today until we get past the oil report and see how that affects the general markets. Remember, 25 Dow points is a lame bounce and 50 Dow points is just a retracement from yesterday, we need to climb back over 11,150 to take this seriously.

Quote of the day by our beloved leader as he stood at the airport surrounded by the armed gunmen that patrol the streets: “People all over the world are watching the experience here in Afghanistan” Like he’s in friggin Epcot! This just after “2 door gunners on a press helicopter (in Mr. Bush’s chopper entourage) fired off a short burst of machine-gun fire at
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Terrible Tuesday Wrap Up

Wowie! What a day!

I am very sorry that I was right to be bearish but I hope my sour mood saved you some money…

As I’m sure you could guess, I could care less what happened to the markets today once I cashed out my Google puts at $27 and $24 this morning (250%)! I came so close to selling them right before the drop as they bumped up to $397 but, lucky for me, it pulled back sharply and gave me the courage to hang on for the 10:30 disaster. It was exactly what I expected, a bad word out of the CFO’s mouth was all it took to send it spiraling…

It was a very weird day with Oil up but oil stocks down, commodities up and commodity stocks flat, and everything else in the toilet. The housing number was in line and the GDP seemed OK so I guess we can blame the whole thing on one stock? We’ll see tomorrow but let’s be super careful until the market shakes this off.


Apple showed a Mac Mini thing and a boom box that didn’t wow the masses and the stock got clobbered for it, down 3.5%! I don’t know what happened to MSFT’s announcement, maybe it’s Thursday.

Let’s see who didn’t lose today…

CY held flat – Man I love that stock! This is a real buy if tomorrow looks like a recovery as SPWR went up another 1.4% so CY needs to catch up. I like the $17.50s for .80 at the moment.

HAL had exactly the day we expected on that news, opened up $1, then plunged. I was way too wrapped up in Google to take advantage of it.

INTC did not go down! That’s a big sign so I’m getting the Jan $20s for $2.65 and I will sell the Apr $22.50s when they get to .50.

NT was flat – a good sign.

NOBL dropped right to the 5% rule, those CEO resignations are murder!

SPLS actually went up 6% today! Those earnings were better than I thought… The Apr $22.50s shot up to $2.15, almost a daily double.

CMCSA held up.

Today CSCO broke $20!!! I think they were trying to sneak it in when nobody would notice. Now that the cat’s out of the bag I like the Jul $20s for $1.40 to take a look at…
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Telling Tuesday

Europe took a big hit this morning on rising unemployment and Asia looks flat so it will be a tough road up for our markets this morning.

There is snow on the ground in NY and it’s chilly so oil may hold steady as bull traders hope the groundhog was right but inventories are tomorrow, with Iran in the background we may see a huge reaction to tomorrow’s report. OPEC meets next week so that will be interesting as well.

Any kind of up day today and I go back to bull mode (and cover my ass on those Google puts!).

Google may be a market mover today as the CFO speaks at a conference this morning (after the Cramer super pump last night). He will also be speaking at another conference on Thursday but the Thursday analyst meeting will be the finale. Microsoft rolls out the next big thing and Apple has something to announce as well so there is the outside possibility of a big tech boom today.

Today is data day with the GDP Chain Deflator (Greenspan’s favorite indicator) expected to come in at 3%, the GDP itself which better make 1.5% or panic may ensue, Chicago PMI which needs to stay over 58, Existing Home Sales (at 10) will really kill the builders if lower than 6.5M and the Consumer Confidence which has possibly too high expectations of 105.

Home foreclosures are up 45% from last year with 103,540 homes in foreclosure in January alone, this is up 27% from December. Rising rates will exacerbate this trend as ARMs are already up 1.3% from last year.

Last week, when I took a cash position, I said that if this is a real rally we won’t be missing anything – I’m glad I reread that because I was right… If we are going up here, we are going way up and we can make our picks but if the market snaps off the resistance it’s sitting on, it could get ugly.

Let’s hope Apple and Microsoft really have something good to say but keep in mind that they may both have a product aimed at each other, doing little good for either company.


A WMT spokesman made a shocking statement on CNBC yesterday as he was defending the company’s questionable health care practices. He said that 25,000 people applied for 1,200 positions at a California Wal-Mart…
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Monday Wrap-Up


A good day on the whole but my damn Google puts closed down 20%. I guess I will be gutting this one out through next week but I really believe there is no possible way they will turn in a $1.99 quarter after last quarter’s $1.54 and Q1 ’05 of just $1.29. The Google bulls will have you believe that, even though they missed last quarter by 12% and even though their best quarter last year was that $1.54 (up just .25 from worst quarter), that they will suddenly have a 30% jump in profits during this one.

OK, moving on from that silliness…

Well we got everything I wished for when I was in rally mode: The Nasdaq did take the lead and broke the 2,300 mark. The Dow almost broke 11,100 but looks safely above 11,000 and the S&P is just a hair under 1,300.

The rally was especially strong (and indicative of my Global Rotation theory) as it clearly was held today without any of the commodity players participating. Even homebuilders sat this one out so you can tell how well the rest of the market must be doing!

Oil crashed all the way down to $61 and continued down in the overnights (currently at $60.76, where we made our short plays last week). Gold stocks tanked as expected with NEM dropping 6% and gold finishing at $556. I stand by my statement that we need $570 to move again.

So why aren’t I happy? I don’t know, something is bothering me about the way this is forming up. Maybe the fact that we never had a big sell-off to test the lows or maybe it’s the way the Dow pulled back from 11,200 the way a vampire pulls back from a cross…

I need confirmation before I can feel comfortable with overnight positions again. Sure it would be nice if Iran resolves itself or if terrorists stop attacking oil production or if bird flu doesn’t wipe out more people than the black plague but we can’t have everything can we?

So I find myself in the very unusual position of being more bearish than most people this week and I’m not going to excuse it or try to justify it, just want you to know so you can see where I’m coming from.


Obviously everything I recommended worked on a day like today (other…
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Monday Morning

Asia reacted well to a bomb free close to the Olympics and easing oil tensions, their markets are up across the board. Europe seems kind of non-plussed about the whole thing so far today, probably because oil is holding $62 in early trading. Last year the Dow hit 10,984.46 in March and promptly fell off a cliff to just 10,000 in April (remember how fed up you were?) before settling down in a channel between 10,250 and 10,750 through November. Much as I don’t like the Dow, by the way, its easier to talk about because everyone can relate to the numbers as they are followed so closely and it’s not entirely disconnected from the other indices. Since mid November, 10,700 has become more of a floor but 11,100 is looking like a ceiling. We established a top in early ’04 as we did last year so, without a major breakout, we can expect traders to treat this as more of the same. A failure to break 11,200 by mid March will likely lead to a catastrophic sell-off so lets be prepared! I am not saying it will crash, I am just saying it will if we don’t get a real rally soon (subtle difference). There would be no logical reason for oil to fall below $62 today, other than general sentiment moving towards the outlook that this is all a farce engineered by the oil producing nations (we are one too) to prop up the price of oil against the largest oversupply of crude in 20 years. One could wonder how oil can go up 5% in one week but XOM goes down .13 but that kind of thinking can only confuse us so we’ll just move on for the moment. This also will go down as the biggest crisis, measured in oil prices, that had the least movement in the price of gold (+2.5%). So this week we can expect more of the same and, you’ve guessed it, I am advocating a cash position in a daytrading mode. We get new home sales today and tomorrow we have a ton of inflation gauges but the big deals are next week when Iran heads into its UN deadline so this week should be iffy at best. The best mover should be googol, coming into its (I’m predicting disastrous) analyst conference on Thursday but we should probably wait until Friday…
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Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...

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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons


Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...

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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ... more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...

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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!

Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!

Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


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More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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