What a wild week that was!
For the second week in a row the rewards of being bearish were very rich indeed despite our move to a substantially cash position.
I think I really nailed the market's direction in Monday's wrap-up when I posted this picture and said "That was the least exciting 90 points we ever gained." It was a tired and pathetic attempt to get to 14,000 and, if anything, made us even more bearish on Monday as we loaded up on mattress plays, the index puts we use to cover our virtual portfolio.
That led to a huge lucky (some would call it skill but I'm not that delusional) break on Tuesday as the market began a 700-point, 4 day decline that generated incredible returns on what were originally intended to be covers on our remaining calls. The nature of the drop was such that we had a scare on Tuesday, a chance to get our calls off the table on a rebound on Wednesday (that caused us to buy even more puts, including XOM et al!) followed by 500 additional points of decline on Thursday and Friday when we were pretty much all bearish.
How could we not have had a great week?!?
As Bryan E said in Tuesday's comments: "Today reminds me of that Barrons commercial…”The market goes up you make money, the market goes down you make money….but this time it’s because of PHIL, HAPPY, and ZMAN."
We were so hot predicting this week's action that we even nailed the titles for the day with "Whip around Wednesday," "Thursday Thump" and "Freaky Friday" so I won't even bother going into detail on what we said as there are no highlights – the whole week was a highlght! Option Sage got the week started with his excellent title "The Four Horsemen (of the Apocalypse?" which warned us that Apocalypse isn't traditionally a BUYBUYBUY celebration.
Far be it for us to fight the markets, we just like to go with the flow and enjoy the ride and what a ride it was this week! Fundamentals really did start to matter in the market and even the mighty XOM corporation felt the pull of gravity as the company shed $50Bn worth of market cap in just 2 days.
Exxon is one of the most discussed (?disgust?) stocks in all of PSW with 310 mentions in various posts so you certainly can't say we didn't tell you it was overvalued. We actually started targeting the shorter-term puts earlier in the month and had a very painful time staying on top of them as the stock crawled from $84 to $94 but it was all worth is on Friday as the stock plunged all the way back to $85, erasing a month's worth of ill-gotten gains in just 48 hours.
XOM was just one of our many virtual portfolio stars in what is now clearly our best week ever, topping last week's best week ever by quite a lot! We stayed on our toes, we had fun, we made some money – it was a very good week indeed!
I finally achieved 2 personal goals I had set for the month: The Short-Term Virtual Portfolio (up 393%) has finally surpassed the Free Picks Virtual Portfolio (up 380%) and the $10,000 Virtual Portfolio is finally worth more than $10,000 ($12,856) thanks almost entirely to a pretty big risk on FWLT, which finally went our way, as well as our CROX spread, which paid huge dividends for us on both the rise and subsequent fall of the stock on their spectacular earnings.
The Short-Term Virtual Portfolio owed it's spectacular gains to DIA calls and then DIA puts that both paid off spectacular dividends as well as an earlier than expected jackpot on the oil puts we had planned on pressing all the way through hurricane season. Enough was certainly enough there and we made a very timely (or so it seems) cash call that left us with 73 well-hedged open positions that have an average gain of 52%.
Our Free Picks Virtual Portfolio has slipped into second place in it's last official week as our promotional look at PSW had "just" a 3% gain on the week for our 11 remaining positions, as our Google play took a big hit as well as our poor COP calls.
I mentioned that we finally wrestled the $10KP into positive territory as our long-suffering spreads finally began to bear some fruit. I had said that a recovery here would require an exercise in patience but mine was worn a little thin too, as we had some very frustrating performances when my conservative bearish attitude early on did little to get things off on the right foot. Now that we have a little cash we can have some fun as the remaining 8 positions are up 28% and are 75% ($9,361) in cash.
The Long-Term Virtual Portfolio, of course, had a great week with 37 open positions adding 10%, bringing our total value up 160% to date. Aside from having an opportunity to take out our callers on the cheap, we will also have a chance to roll our leaps into better positions, add to our strong positions and finally pick up a few bargains
Our Stock Virtual Portfolio took a 4% hit on our 6 remaining positions, now up 32% with nothing exciting to report.
The Complex Spreads Virtual Portfolio jumped 19% for the week and our 26 remaining positions are now up 143%. This virtual portfolio has the potential to explode as we've cashed our of our risky open Apple calls but still hold a lot of deflated GOOG Sept $570s and Aug $540s as well as the ever exciting DNDN and DNA plays.
As we closed out a huge number of positions this week and have moved substantially to cash, I ran a special virtual portfolio review for the member site that will be available for download and on-line viewing on Monday. It's been a very exciting finish to the first half of the year (plus 1 month!) and I'll be taking off on my vacation on August 4th, leaving the bulk of the postings in the capable hands of Happy Trading, Zman and Options Sage. While they may be taking new positions, the virtual portfolio will follow through on the article Sage posted back on July 2nd, "Vacation Proof Your Virtual Portfolio" and it will be fun to see how I do after 2 weeks away!
We closed 98 positions on the week as we pared down our holdings and they gained an average of 43%, as is typical when big money index puts pay off (high dollar value, low percentage). The Apple plays we've been detailng on the free site were a spectacular success as were the oil puts Zman and I have been playing for weeks, especially our refiner group!
|
Description |
Basis |
Open |
Sale Price |
Sold |
Gain/Loss |
% |
| 30 OCT 140.00 AAPL CALL (APVJH) | $ 14,110 | 7/2 | $ 49,490 | 7/27 | $ 35,380 | 251% |
| 10 AUG 135.00 AAPL CALL (APVHG) | $ 5,260 | 7/11 | $ 4,390 | 7/26 | $ (870) | -17% |
| 25 AUG 140.00 AAPL CALL (APVHH) | $ 11,885 | 7/13 | $ 24,365 | 7/26 | $ 12,480 | 105% |
| 50 AUG 135.00 AAPL PUT (APVTG) | $ 25,760 | 7/24 | $ 12,490 | 7/26 | $ (13,270) | -52% |
| 10 AUG 140.00 AAPL CALL (APVHH) | $ 6,610 | 7/24 | $ 8,240 | 7/24 | $ 1,630 | 25% |
| 40 AUG 135.00 AAPL PUT (APVTG) | $ 18,810 | 7/20 | $ 24,990 | 7/24 | $ 6,180 | 33% |
| 10 AUG 135.00 AAPL PUT (APVTG) | $ 5,260 | 7/11 | $ 6,390 | 7/24 | $ 1,130 | 22% |
| 40 AUG 90.00 AMZN CALL (ZQNHR) | $ 5,810 | 7/25 | $ 5,990 | 7/26 | $ 180 | 3% |
| 20 AUG 90.00 AMZN CALL (ZQNHR) | $ 2,900 | 7/25 | $ 4,990 | 7/26 | $ 2,090 | 72% |
| 40 AUG 85.00 AMZN CALL (ZQNHQ) | $ 12,010 | 7/25 | $ 23,990 | 7/26 | $ 11,980 | 100% |
| 20 OCT 80.00 AMZN CALL (ZQNJP) | $ 8,910 | 7/13 | $ 23,990 | 7/25 | $ 15,080 | 169% |
| 20 AUG 75.00 AMZN CALL (ZQNHO) | $ 22,010 | 7/13 | $ 9,490 | 7/25 | $ (12,520) | -57% |
| 5 OCT 40.00 AU CALL (AUJH) | $ 1,160 | 7/6 | $ 2,440 | 7/25 | $ 1,280 | 110% |
| 10 SEP 260.00 BIDU CALL (BDUIV) | $ 5,030 | 7/26 | $ 4,390 | 7/27 | $ (640) | -13% |
| 10 AUG 220.00 BIDU CALL (BDUHD) | $ 5,510 | 7/26 | $ 10,440 | 7/27 | $ 4,930 | 90% |
| 20 AUG 260.00 BIDU CALL (BDUHV) | $ 2,710 | 7/26 | $ 2,090 | 7/27 | $ (620) | -23% |
| 20 AUG 85.00 CLF CALL (CLFHQ) | $ 8,710 | 7/6 | $ 6,990 | 7/23 | $ (1,720) | -20% |
| 25 AUG 80.00 COP PUT (COPTP) | $ 1,520 | 7/25 | $ 5,865 | 7/26 | $ 4,345 | 286% |
| 150 AUG 85.00 COP CALL (COPHQ) | $ 22,510 | 7/24 | $ 26,990 | 7/25 | $ 4,480 | 20% |
| 10 AUG 85.00 COP PUT (COPTQ) | $ 2,210 | 7/20 | $ 2,790 | 7/23 | $ 580 | 26% |
| 40 AUG 90.00 CVX PUT (CVXTR) | $ 6,010 | 7/23 | $ 10,790 | 7/25 | $ 4,780 | 80% |
| 20 AUG 90.00 CVX PUT (CVXTR) | $ 3,010 | 7/20 | $ 3,990 | 7/23 | $ 980 | 33% |
| 150 AUG 135.00 DIA PUT (DAWTE) | $ 35,720 | 7/26 | $ 52,490 | 7/27 | $ 16,770 | 47% |
| 200 AUG 136.00 DIA PUT (DAZTF) | $ 40,010 | 7/26 | $ 71,990 | 7/27 | $ 31,980 | 80% |
| 100 SEP 136.00 DIA PUT (DAZUF) | $ 32,010 | 7/26 | $ 45,990 | 7/27 | $ 13,980 | 44% |
| 80 SEP 139.00 DIA PUT (DAZUI) | $ 22,030 | 7/19 | $ 49,590 | 7/27 | $ 27,560 | 125% |
| 50 AUG 137.00 DIA CALL (DAZHG) | $ 11,760 | 7/25 | $ 13,990 | 7/26 | $ 2,230 | 19% |
| 100 AUG 138.00 DIA PUT (DAZTH) | $ 21,010 | 7/25 | $ 44,990 | 7/26 | $ 23,980 | 114% |
| 100 AUG 139.00 DIA PUT (DAZTI) | $ 21,010 | 7/24 | $ 49,990 | 7/26 | $ 28,980 | 138% |
| 100 AUG 136.00 DIA PUT (DAZTF) | $ 20,010 | 7/26 | $ 34,990 | 7/26 | $ 14,980 | 75% |
| 200 AUG 138.00 DIA CALL (DAZHH) | $ 42,410 | 7/25 | $ 43,990 | 7/26 | $ 1,580 | 4% |
| 100 AUG 135.00 DIA PUT (DAWTE) | $ 20,010 | 7/26 | $ 29,990 | 7/26 | $ 9,980 | 50% |
| 200 AUG 139.00 DIA PUT (DAZTI) | $ 44,010 | 7/24 | $ 59,990 | 7/25 | $ 15,980 | 36% |
| 300 AUG 140.00 DIA CALL (DAZHJ) | $ 30,010 | 7/24 | $ 35,990 | 7/25 | $ 5,980 | 20% |
| 200 AUG 138.00 DIA PUT (DAZTH) | $ 41,010 | 7/24 | $ 51,990 | 7/25 | $ 10,980 | 27% |
| 200 AUG 139.00 DIA CALL (DAZHI) | $ 39,010 | 7/12 | $ 39,990 | 7/24 | $ 980 | 3% |
| 400 AUG 140.00 DIA PUT (DAZTJ) | $ 90,810 | 7/18 | $135,990 | 7/24 | $ 45,180 | 50% |
| 30 SEP 142.00 DIA CALL (DAZIL) | $ 6,910 | 7/16 | $ 5,990 | 7/24 | $ (920) | -13% |
| 250 AUG 137.00 DIA PUT (DAZTG) | $ 32,510 | 7/3 | $ 32,490 | 7/23 | $ (20) | 0% |
| 50 AUG 80.00 DNA CALL (DWNHP) | $ 260 | 7/2 | $ 1,740 | 7/24 | $ 1,480 | 569% |
| 40 AUG 10.00 DNDN CALL (UKOHB) | $ 530 | 5/31 | $ 590 | 7/24 | $ 60 | 11% |
| 30 AUG 110.00 DO PUT (DOTB) | $ 13,210 | 7/2 | $ 13,790 | 7/25 | $ 580 | 4% |
| 10 JAN 65.00 EDU CALL (EDUAM) | $ 5,400 | 7/13 | $ 2,890 | 7/27 | $ (2,510) | -47% |
| 10 AUG 50.00 FAF PUT (FAFTJ) | $ 1,160 | 7/9 | $ 2,990 | 7/23 | $ 1,830 | 158% |
| 20 AUG 120.00 FWLT CALL (UFBHD) | $ 6,010 | 7/25 | $ 10,890 | 7/25 | $ 4,880 | 81% |
| 3 NOV 110.00 FWLT PUT (UFBWB) | $ 2,779 | 5/29 | $ 2,885 | 7/25 | $ 106 | 4% |
| 4 AUG 115.00 FWLT PUT (UFBTC) | $ 1,470 | 7/13 | $ 2,630 | 7/25 | $ 1,160 | 79% |
| 20 SEP 38.00 GDX CALL (GDXIL) | $ 5,410 | 7/5 | $ 8,390 | 7/25 | $ 2,980 | 55% |
| 25 AUG 35.00 GM PUT (GMTG) | $ 2,135 | 7/10 | $ 3,990 | 7/23 | $ 1,855 | 87% |
| 15 AUG 520.00 GOOG CALL (GOPHV) | $ 13,510 | 7/23 | $ 19,865 | 7/24 | $ 6,355 | 47% |
| 10 AUG 520.00 GOOG CALL (GOPHV) | $ 9,510 | 7/23 | $ 12,990 | 7/24 | $ 3,480 | 37% |
| 10 AUG 520.00 GOOG CALL (GOPHV) | $ 9,010 | 7/23 | $ 9,990 | 7/24 | $ 980 | 11% |
| 10 AUG 520.00 GOOG CALL (GOPHV) | $ 9,510 | 7/23 | $ 9,990 | 7/24 | $ 480 | 5% |
| 80 AUG 60.00 HES PUT (IGGTL) | $ 4,170 | 7/11 | $ 3,190 | 7/25 | $ (980) | -24% |
| 20 AUG 75.00 HOC PUT (HOCTO) | $ 4,810 | 7/19 | $ 17,990 | 7/26 | $ 13,180 | 274% |
| 15 NOV 47.50 HPQ CALL (HPQKW) | $ 3,010 | 7/9 | $ 4,340 | 7/27 | $ 1,330 | 44% |
| 17 AUG 20.00 KNOT CALL (BQCHD) | $ 945 | 6/19 | $ 1,265 | 7/27 | $ 320 | 34% |
| 10 JAN 50.00 KO CALL (VKOAJ) | $ 3,060 | 1/16 | $ 7,890 | 7/23 | $ 4,830 | 158% |
| 20 SEP 52.50 MCD CALL (MCDIX) | $ 2,610 | 7/12 | $ 2,390 | 7/25 | $ (220) | -8% |
| 25 AUG 50.00 MRK CALL (MRKHJ) | $ 3,260 | 7/18 | $ 8,740 | 7/23 | $ 5,480 | 168% |
| 60 OCT 32.50 MSFT CALL (MSQJZ) | $ 790 | 5/18 | $ 2,270 | 7/27 | $ 1,480 | 187% |
| 5 JAN 50.00 NFX CALL (NFXAJ) | $ 1,910 | 7/9 | $ 2,940 | 7/26 | $ 1,030 | 54% |
| 20 AUG 140.00 NMX CALL (NMXHH) | $ 6,310 | 7/6 | $ 11,190 | 7/23 | $ 4,880 | 77% |
| 8 AUG 80.00 NYX CALL (NYXHP) | $ 1,210 | 7/23 | $ 1,190 | 7/27 | $ (20) | -2% |
| 20 AUG 180.00 OIH CALL (ODLHP) | $ 4,610 | 6/22 | $ 22,990 | 7/23 | $ 18,380 | 399% |
| 20 AUG 55.00 OII PUT (OIITK) | $ 2,910 | 7/12 | $ 4,890 | 7/25 | $ 1,980 | 68% |
| 10 JAN 15.00 OVTI CALL (VYVAC) | $ 3,060 | 4/23 | $ 5,970 | 7/25 | $ 2,910 | 95% |
| 50 SEP 25.00 PFE CALL (PFEIE) | $ 2,760 | 7/23 | $ 3,240 | 7/25 | $ 480 | 17% |
| 20 OCT 65.00 PG CALL (PGJM) | $ 2,610 | 5/10 | $ 2,690 | 7/25 | $ 80 | 3% |
| 10 AUG 150.00 PTR PUT (PTRTJ) | $ 2,760 | 7/25 | $ 4,990 | 7/26 | $ 2,230 | 81% |
| 200 AUG 49.00 QQQQ CALL (QQQHW) | $ 18,410 | 7/26 | $ 18,990 | 7/27 | $ 580 | 3% |
| 200 AUG 49.00 QQQQ CALL (QQQHW) | $ 18,410 | 7/26 | $ 18,990 | 7/26 | $ 580 | 3% |
| 300 AUG 50.00 QQQQ CALL (QQQHX) | $ 18,010 | 7/24 | $ 21,590 | 7/25 | $ 3,580 | 20% |
| 45 AUG 115.00 RIG PUT (RIGTC) | $ 16,120 | 6/27 | $ 17,990 | 7/25 | $ 1,870 | 12% |
| 50 AUG 3.00 SIRI CALL (QXOHG) | $ 510 | 7/24 | $ 1,240 | 7/27 | $ 730 | 143% |
| 10 AUG 75.00 SPWR CALL (QSUHO) | $ 410 | 7/13 | $ 1,440 | 7/24 | $ 1,030 | 251% |
| 20 AUG 90.00 SU PUT (SUTR) | $ 810 | 7/23 | $ 4,990 | 7/26 | $ 4,180 | 516% |
| 20 AUG 75.00 SUN CALL (SUNHO) | $ 3,410 | 7/25 | $ 2,190 | 7/26 | $ (1,220) | -36% |
| 20 SEP 35.00 TIE CALL (TIEIG) | $ 3,610 | 7/18 | $ 4,390 | 7/24 | $ 780 | 22% |
| 60 AUG 55.00 TSO PUT (TSOTK) | $ 12,610 | 7/19 | $ 34,190 | 7/25 | $ 21,580 | 171% |
| 30 AUG 55.00 TSO PUT (TSOTK) | $ 6,010 | 7/19 | $ 9,290 | 7/23 | $ 3,280 | 55% |
| 20 AUG 57.50 TSO PUT (TSOTZ) | $ 3,910 | 5/2 | $ 7,590 | 7/23 | $ 3,680 | 94% |
| 400 Tesoro Petroleum Corp. (TSO) | $ 21,710 | 10/30 | $ 21,738 | 7/23 | $ 28 | 0% |
| 20 JUL 22.50 TWX CALL (TWXGX) | $ 470 | 5/25 | $ – | 7/23 | $ (470) | -100% |
| 20 AUG 50.00 WNR PUT (WNRTJ) | $ 2,110 | 7/24 | $ 4,790 | 7/25 | $ 2,680 | 127% |
| 20 AUG 50.00 WNR PUT (WNRTJ) | $ 2,110 | 7/24 | $ 4,190 | 7/24 | $ 2,080 | 99% |
| 20 AUG 110.00 X CALL (XHB) | $ 6,010 | 7/20 | $ 5,990 | 7/24 | $ (20) | 0% |
| 30 AUG 72.00 XLE PUT (XBTTT) | $ 4,060 | 7/25 | $ 11,090 | 7/27 | $ 7,030 | 173% |
| 20 AUG 70.00 XLE PUT (XBTTR) | $ 1,610 | 7/2 | $ 2,390 | 7/25 | $ 780 | 48% |
| 50 AUG 72.00 XLE PUT (XBTTT) | $ 5,010 | 7/23 | $ 8,490 | 7/25 | $ 3,480 | 70% |
| 50 SEP 90.00 XOM PUT (XOMUR) | $ 17,510 | 7/26 | $ 27,490 | 7/27 | $ 9,980 | 57% |
| 100 AUG 90.00 XOM PUT (XOMTR) | $ 14,020 | 7/25 | $ 29,990 | 7/26 | $ 15,970 | 114% |
| 100 AUG 90.00 XOM PUT (XOMTR) | $ 14,020 | 7/25 | $ 23,990 | 7/26 | $ 9,970 | 71% |
| 100 AUG 95.00 XOM PUT (XOMTS) | $ 33,010 | 7/2 | $ 44,990 | 7/25 | $ 11,980 | 36% |
| 100 AUG 95.00 XOM PUT (XOMTS) | $ 33,010 | 7/2 | $ 49,990 | 7/24 | $ 16,980 | 51% |
| 100 AUG 90.00 XOM PUT (XOMTR) | $ 19,000 | 7/2 | $ 12,990 | 7/23 | $ (6,010) | -32% |
| 200 AUG 95.00 XOM PUT (XOMTS) | $ 70,010 | 7/23 | $ 69,990 | 7/23 | $ (20) | 0% |
| 50 AUG 35.00 YUM CALL (YUMHG) | $ 260 | 7/11 | $ 3,240 | 7/24 | $ 2,980 | 1146% |
