Archive for 2008

Stand On The Scales (And Discover Your Nature!)

"There may be a recession in terms of stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash" - Irving Fisher, leading US Economist, September 1929

"Stock prices have reached what seems like a permanently high plateau.  I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from current levels, such as predicted.  I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months" – Irving Fisher, October 1929

"The end of the decline of the stock market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most" - Irving Fisher, November 1929

The very unfortunate timing of these quotes from Irving Fisher serve to highlight how optimistic human nature can be!  Not only were predictions of higher stock prices made on the eve of the 1929 depression, but when the predictions proved erroneous the downtrend was also believed to be only short-lived.

Are you an optimist or a realist?  Jump on board some weighing scales and find out!

The optimist jumps on the weighing scales and sees a number higher than expected.  What does he/she do?  Jumps off of course!  After all, the number disagreed with the expectation.  Then the optimist jumps on board again to see if the number changed second time round.  Moreover, if the number was better than expected first time around, the optimist jumps off the scales, delighted with the result. The realist, in contrast, simply accepts the information presented either way.  The realist sees no need to jump on board the scales a second time because he/she trusts the data presented.

In the stock market, the natural tendency to be optimistic aligns with a self-serving bias.  In order to move from optimism to realism, we must recognize that we have a natural proclivity to question information that disagrees with us and to accept data that aligns with our beliefs. 

In the stock market, the same biases accompany trading decisions.  For example, recent figures showed money market cash skyrocketed to $3.45 Trillion – 56% higher than the March 2003 low!  So, with so much money moving to cash, what happened to the Investors Intelligence Sentiment Index for stocks in March?

It dropped, of course!  Just as optimism is pervasive when market participants are bullish, so too is pessimism pervasive when positions have been sold and cash becomes a sanctuary.  After all, market participants who sell MUST believe…
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Weekly Wrap-Up – Go Go Google!

Wow another 500-point week!

We kind of had one last month (3/17- 3/24) as we gained 576 points over 5 sessions (Friday holiday), capping off a 2-week run from 11,740 to 12,548.  Our other 500 point run this year came in the first week of February, when we climbed from 12,200 to 12,743, completing a run from 11,971 the previous week.  We can discuss the technical ramifications of this next week but starting this run off a nice consolidation at 12,300 should bring us back to testing our predicted 13,000 to 13,600 range right on schedule (barring more financial shockers).

Of course we had a fantastic week, two of our virtual portfolios were Google heavy but our decision to keep the faith, even after we took a 12% hit from Google last week (and more pain into earnings) was the key to our success.  Because we were taking such a big chance on Google we played a lot of our other positons fairly conservative, which is just fine – if it's a real rally, we have a long way to go and plenty of cash to go there with.  As I often say, fundamentals do win out over time but, as John Maynard Keynes said: "The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."  That's why balance is very important.

Balance was the key to our success the past couple of months as we rode out some very choppy waters but it's weeks like this that make all the frustration worthwhile.  As usual in a good run, our short-term virtual portfolio took a hit as that's where we keep our protective index puts but that was well offset by spectacular gains in most of the other virtual portfolios, where the bulk of our money was in play:

  • Short-Term Virtual Portfolio dropped 9% for the week, now below 20% invested and up 228% for the year so far.  We are down to just 23 positions with only 11 open calls dwarfed in value by our puts (DIA and oil), which are nearly 1/2 of our invested position and down close to 40% overall for that group.  This is the price of success in our other virtual portfolios!
  • Our Long-Term Virtual Portfolio


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Friday Already?

Last Friday it was "GE, I Wish I'd Stayed In Bed" but last night we couldn't sleep as Christmas came 8 months early on our Google trades.

Just like kids at Christmas, we can't wait for the opening bell to get our presents.  We have a big rule at PSW and that's ALWAYS sell into the initial excitement but our other rule is When in doubt, sell half and I think we'll have very tight stops on 1/2 of our shorter calls and also a plan to roll our callers into the initial excitement, as laid out in last night's post.  

The whole market is off to a rockin' start because, as I predicted on March 28th, C's earnings were not that terrible and that's all it takes in this market of very low expectation so thanks to Meredith Whitney and all the other hyenas, who worked so hard to give us these phenomenal entry points on so many stocks! 

Not only are our bullish plays going well but a reversal of sentiment in equities is going to let a little air out of the commodity bubble as hot money scrambles to follow the next trend so we might even get a little relief on our oil puts – isn't that amazing?!? 

Asia was not amazed this morning with the Nikkei posting just a half-point gain while the Hang Seng dropped a quarter point, following the Shanghai Composite, which gave up yet another 4% today, dropping to 3,094, a fresh 52-week low.  PTR fell 5% and finished below it's IPO price as inflation worries start to bite the very guys that are at the root of the inflation.  This is Shakespearean sonnet-level poetic justice!

Europe is having a better time and is up about 1.5% pre market (8 am) despite RBS indicating they would need to raise a $24 Billion to shore up their capital base.  The BOE is aggressively working on a plan to bail out the banks designed to "help banks find a home for billions of dollars in hard-to-sell mortgages that have been piling up on their balance sheets and preventing them from making new loans."  Interestingly, the BOE plan is similar to…
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Great Googly Moogly!

 

Forget what happened today, it's a Google evening!

On Wednesday morning, even if you were not a member and in on our main plays, you might have benefited from this advice: "We have many earnings heavyweights yet to report, including our beloved Google, who are being held down this morning by a WSJ report that ad clicks were weak in March, recycling the same story for the third consecutive month as GOOG’s policy change works it’s way through the system so let’s be thrilled with the opportunity to pick up the $460s again for $9 this morning, this time I feel good enough to make it an official 10 in the DTP!"

For members, that play was a compliment to our existing Google plays and our Day Trading Virtual Portfolio went into earnings with 15 June $440s and 5 Sept $450s  and 5 Apr $470s with 15 $450s sold against.  At $520 we can expect to roll our callers to 20 May $500s at $35 while paying the $20 to cancel out the extra 5 April $450 caller, which is no problem as we should get a nice double off our $77,000 position – this is very good for a virtual portfolio we started with just $100K total on March 3rd!

Our main play on Google is in the Complex Spreads Virtual Portfolio where GOOG accidentally became a major holding as we rolled our January calls lower and lower, taking a 20% loss to stay in position against our callers but we ended up with 60 Jan $420s covered with 30 Apr $450s which were themselves topped off with 50 Apr $500s, as they were just $2.80 at the time we took them (4/11) and were well worth it to cap the potential gains of our $20 callers.  This position will make a silly amount of money so please excuse me if I am in a silly expiration day mood!

For those of you who more than 1/2 covered Google, this will be tricky but keep in mind that your April callers will have no premium and that May callers will have max premium on the morning spike so that is going to be a good time to roll.  Understand that if you roll a $450 caller with no premium at $70 to a $50 May caller
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Options looking for big move on SunPower earnings…

Today’s tickers: CNI, LNG, SPWR, TLB, POT, BDK, CLR, MEOH

 

CNI- Speculation has risen in recent days following GE’s surprise earnings miss last Friday, that companies reliant on economic expansion – even those that continue to benefit from sky-high commodities prices – could be in for declines. It is against this backdrop that we observed a 21-fold increase in trading volume in the Canadian National Railway. It appears as though a trader may have taken advantage of the decline in put premiums resulting from today’s 6% share-price gain to $51.75 to enter a long position in the July 40/45 bear put spread. The prices on these positions today would result in an 85-cent debit for the buyer that breaks even at $44.15 – roughly a 13% drop from current levels. The maximum profit on this position is $4.15. .

 

LNG- Shares in Cheniere Energy, the operator of liquefied natural gas terminals, dropped more than 8% in early trading, setting the second in a consecutive series of 52-week lows at $13.00 . Earlier today Cheniere announced it was outsourcing the marketing of its Sabine Pass terminal in a bid to cut overhead costs. Implied volatility on its options rose more than 40% this morning, and it now appears that the option market is pricing in about 90% more volatility to its share price than is already apparent in its 76% historic volatility reading. The expectation for share price movement here seems way out of proportion with the known news flow. Given the volatility outlook, which is aberrant by any measure, it’s little surprise to see traders looking to sell premium in May puts at strikes of 10 and 12.50, with the inclination to sell pumped put premium extending into June at the 10.00 strike.

 

SPWR- Following a bumper quarter for solar energy companies, option traders are looking for a big move from SunPower Corp., the country’s second-largest maker of solar cells, which is due to report earnings tomorrow. A Bloomberg article appearing ahead of the numbers forecast a 14-cents-per shares rise in EPS, up from 2 cents one year ago, as the company has taken steps to hone the efficiency of its cells. Optimism ahead of the report appears to have fueled a 2% increase in its share price today to $96.31, and with the price of the front-month at-the-money straddle pricing in nearly a $10…
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Thursday Thump – For the Dollar!

"This must be Thursday," said Arthur musing to himself, sinking low over his beer, "I never could get the hang of Thursdays." – Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy

Thursdays have not been kind to the dollar this year.  Last week we had a pre-G7 take-down and this week we have the post-G7 "what a load of crap that was" sort of reaction

I mentioned on Monday that Minister Lagarde was incredulous at the lack of interest shown by the markets to what she considered a significant policy shift by the G7 but, as I also said at the time, you have to convince the Japanese housewives to stop shorting the dollar or all is lost.  We expected the G7 to give Bush and Paulson a week or two to save face and do something on this end but we know that's not going to happen as there is little left you can really do to embarrass these guys into action as Bush's approval rating has already broken below 30%.

The markets ignored yesterday's Beige Book, which indicated widespread inflation along with rising prices that led to a decline in consumer spending and I mentioned in last night's post that we still have significant issues that need to be addressed.  Janet Yellen chimed in yesterday and said that the housing sector "will be a major drag" on the economy into next year, pretty much in-line with my own projections but she is also predicting and even slower economy for the remainder of the year and I'm not seeing that yet in earnings or guidance.

MER did post a loss for the quarter and wrote down another $9Bn of assets.  Of course the assets are still there, they are simply declaring them a loss for tax purposes.  This is $1Bn more than had been expected and dropped MERs taxable revenues down to just $825M on the nearly $10Bn they earned (and remember, they still have the assets, they are just saying they are worthless).  They have also pledged to add 4,000 people to the jobless rolls this quarter (this week came in at 372,000 overall)!

PFE was worse than expected but this has little to do with consumer spending and the overall economy but EBAY had
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Wild Wednesday Wrap-Up

Wheee, what a day!

Boy did we need that.  On the whole, because we were well covered, we didn't make a lot of money BUT the value of our long-term holdings improved, which boosts the value of the rents we can collect in May.  In a choppy market (and this is still a choppy market) that is very, very important.

If we get a confirmed rally, we have plenty of cash to get more bullish.  Our Long-Term Virtual Portfolio did, in fact, gain 10% and that's where the bulk of our positions are with the Short-Term Virtual Portfolio carrying 1/2 as many positions in value.  Each of those virtual portfolios, of course, dwarf our smaller virtual portfolios, which have been fairly flat for the week so far.  Let's keep in mind that all we've done so far is get back to last Thursday's highs (before GE's miss) and 12,600 has held firm for this entire year since we fell below it in January.  We need a break over 12,750 that holds to start getting more aggressive and I'll feel better about it once we get past GOOG, C and expirations on Friday.

I hate to throw a wet blanket on a 250-point rally but it's my job to tell you when I think we're too low AND when I think we're too high and I do not like a rally with oil at all-time highs (sucking money out of consumer's hands) and the dollar at all-time lows (eroding the spending power of the dollars they have left).  If you think you need a cold splash of water, watch this video (thank Yev!) on the California foreclosure situation where foreclosures are outpacing sales by more than 3 to 1!

I encourage you to play with Foreclosureradar.com, which has great data on California and gives you a feel for the situation.  As I said in yesterday's post where we solved the housing crisis – this is all fixable with a pen-stroke but, without that pen-stroke, it's still going to be a disaster!  We got bullish expecting the G7 to act but, so far, there is much talk but no action – we can't let ourselves get talked into buying equities, we need to see a really good reason before we go running with the bulls.


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Description of the swing trading virtual portfolio (In Optrader’s tab)

The purpose of this virtual portfolio is to show that anyone can make money consistently by following some very basic rules without trying to guess market direction. Our focus is on discipline and money management rather than entries. Our goal is to show that by keeping losses very small and letting run our winners it is easy to be profitable in the long-run.

- Most of the trades are directional, naked options, no spreads (or very rarely).
- This virtual portfolio is targeted to trades that we usually hold between 2-3 days and a couple of weeks.
- All trades are posted live in the virtual portfolio as soon as they are entered and most of the time in comments as well.
- We use different strategies in this virtual portfolio, one of them being the 5MA strategy (explained in another post). But we do not trade this strategy only. Most of our trades are based on technicals, support/resistance, patterns, etc. The constant is that we always define our stop when we enter the trade and we always respect risk management and position sizing.
- For most positions, unless indicated, we buy ATM or slightly ITM naked calls or puts. We usually buy one month out, and never hold current month options 2 weeks before expiration.
- R is how much we risk on each position. It is the difference between the entry price and the stop.
- R should not be more than 2% or 3% of your virtual portfolio.
- R is constant. It means that we should always lose the same amount when our stop is hit. If we risk 2% of your virtual portfolio on each trade and our virtual portfolio is $100K, then we should ALWAYS lose $2k when we get stopped-out. And it does not matter if the stock dropped 20% or 1% from our entry.
- By defining our stop and our risk BEFORE we enter each trade, we can then calculate the number of contracts we need to buy to keep our loss at 1R when we get stopped-out.

An example of how we calculate position size:

Let’s say we buy AAPL calls when AAPL is at $152.25.
$151 is our stop.
Delta of the May $155’s is 0.50
Our total account is $25,000
Our risk on this trade is…
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Description of the swing trading virtual portfolio (In Optrader’s tab)

The purpose of this virtual portfolio is to show that anyone can make money consistently by following some very basic rules without trying to guess market direction. Our focus is on discipline and money management rather than entries. Our goal is to show that by keeping losses very small and letting run our winners it is easy to be profitable in the long-run.

- Most of the trades are directional, naked options, no spreads (or very rarely).
- This virtual portfolio is targeted to trades that we usually hold between 2-3 days and a couple of weeks.
- All trades are posted live in the virtual portfolio as soon as they are entered and most of the time in comments as well.
- We use different strategies in this virtual portfolio, one of them being the 5MA strategy (explained in another post). But we do not trade this strategy only. Most of our trades are based on technicals, support/resistance, patterns, etc. The constant is that we always define our stop when we enter the trade and we always respect risk management and position sizing.
- For most positions, unless indicated, we buy ATM or slightly ITM naked calls or puts. We usually buy one month out, and never hold current month options 2 weeks before expiration.
- R is how much we risk on each position. It is the difference between the entry price and the stop.
- R should not be more than 2% or 3% of your virtual portfolio.
- R is constant. It means that we should always lose the same amount when our stop is hit. If we risk 2% of your virtual portfolio on each trade and our virtual portfolio is $100K, then we should ALWAYS lose $2k when we get stopped-out. And it does not matter if the stock dropped 20% or 1% from our entry.
- By defining our stop and our risk BEFORE we enter each trade, we can then calculate the number of contracts we need to buy to keep our loss at 1R when we get stopped-out.

An example of how we calculate position size:

Let’s say we buy AAPL calls when AAPL is at $152.25.
$151 is our stop.
Delta of the May $155’s is 0.50
Our total account is $25,000
Our risk on this trade is…
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After liftoff for airline consolidation, traders wage contrarian bets on B/E Aerospace

Today’s tickers: BEAV, NOC, MTW, INTC, CROX, CWTR, XLV, SOV

 

BEAV- Shares in the world’s largest maker of aircraft-cabin interiors have taken a hit in recent sessions, particularly in the run-up to yesterday’s Delta-Northwest merger announcement – as investors appeared swayed by the notion that a wave of consolidation in the airline industry would lead to a reduction in aircraft capacity. One analyst speaking with Bloomberg news yesterday noted that delays in Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner and a merging of Delta-Northwest’s aesthetic identity could compensate handsomely for any thinning of the post-merger aircraft ranks, on grounds that existing fleet aircraft would likely have to be “retrofitted” with new interiors. While the downside in B/E’s share price continued apace today, down 1.3% to $34.00, the nine-fold increase in option volume detected by our market scanners showed a remarkable propensity among traders for the call side of B/E’s outlook. April 30 calls sold off for around $3.80, while fresh positions were entered at the higher May 35 call strike for around $1.75. Despite the fact that shares in the company have lost more than a third of their value this year alone, option traders hold twice as many call positions as puts in B/E Aerospace.

 

NOC- Aerospace companies continued to make an impression on our market scanners, even Delta-Northwest news notwithstanding. Shares in Northrup Grumman, which recently pipped Boeing for a rich Pentagon defense contract, underwent a reversal of fortunes today, losing 6.5% of their value to read $71.80 – less than a buck above the 52-week low. The company is moving on a couple of conspicuously bearish news items this afternoon – first news that EADS, which partnered with Northrop Grumman to win the Air Force/Pentagon contract, is being invested by market regulators in France over suspected insider sales; and second, and more pertinently, the company’s own announcement that it may charge off as much as $360 million for the first quarter of the year due to delays on an amphibious assault ship. With options trading at nearly 10 times the normal level, traders sought fresh positions at the May 75 call strike, and again in the May 70 puts.

 

MTW- Shares in the Manitowoc Company, the country’s largest maker of ice machines, fell 9% to $36.05 after it announced plans to acquire British food service equipment maker Enodis PLC for $2.1 billion. The deal is part and…
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Phil's Favorites

Brexit: how the end of Britain's empire led to rising inequality that helped Leave to victory

 

Brexit: how the end of Britain's empire led to rising inequality that helped Leave to victory

AC Arts Photography via Shutterstock

Courtesy of Danny Dorling, University of Oxford and Sal...



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Zero Hedge

World Trade War I: US Asks South Korea To Join Anti-Huawei Campaign

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The bilateral trade war between the US and China is gradually becoming a global trade war of global geopolitical and commercial dominance between the US and Chinese spheres of influence.

Shortly after the two largest mobile phone companies in the UK decided against launching Huawei-built 5G phones this morning, and roughly around the time a bevy of Japanese tech and telecom companies including ARM Holdings, Panasonic and SoftBank all imposed a boycott on supplying Huawei with mission critical components joining Australia, and New Zealand as major US allies to end commercial relat...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Emerging Markets About To Submerge If 3-Year Support Breaks?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are Emerging Markets about to “Submerge” and head a good deal lower? What they do at (3) will go a long way in answering this question!

Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has been lagging the broad market for the past 15-months. They hit their 50% retracement level of the last year’s highs and lows and falling resistance at (2) recently. The weakness of last has EEM trading below its 200-MA line.

EEM has spent the majority of the past 3-years inside of rising channel (1), which reflects that this trend remains up. The weakness of late has it testing the bo...



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Insider Scoop

Amgen To Buy Danish Collaborator Nuevolution For $167M

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) took a logical step forward in buying a preclinical biotech it has been collaborating with since 2016. 

What Happened

Amgen announced Wednesday an agreement to buy Copenhagen-based Nuevolution for $167 million.

Th...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>