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Tuesday, August 16, 2022

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Manic Monday – Dubai, CitiGroup and GS Move Markets

What a morning it's been already! 

Last night, at about 11:30 EST, Abu Dhabi gave a $10Bn bailout to Dubai (until the end of April, anyway) with the following statement from Sheik Ahmed bin Saaed Al Maktoum, chairman of the Dubai Supreme Fiscal Committee: "We are here today to reassure investors, financial and trade creditors, employees, and our citizens that our government will act at all times in accordance with market principles and internationally accepted business practices."  That was enough to send the Hang Seng from down 300 points to up 300 points in less than 30 minutes of trading (on both sides of their lunch break) while the Shanghai went from -2.2% to +1.7% and the Nikkei also reversed a 100-point drop, but only managed to get back to even at the close

US futures trading also went wild, up over 100 points at the time but we've given up about half of those gains as of 7:30.  Does it make sense that the Dubai crisis, which dropped us from 10,450 back to 10,250 when it came up, should be the catalyst to get us over 10,500 just because they were bailed out?  Of course it doesn't – that's why we went to cash.  This is one of the most ridiculously irrational markets I've ever seen.  The other "good" news this morning is also the same old songs:  Citigroup will repay their $20Bn TARP loan by diluting their stock by about 20% and GS says oil will go to $85 early next year.   

I don't know why they even bother to pretend anymore – they should just put 10 market-boosting statements on a chip that randomly plays one of them whenever the MSM needs a quote for the morning.  People don't seem to notice it's the same thing over and over and over again so why even bother with the pretense?  Speaking of pretense – I mentioned in the Weekend Wrap-Up that we expected this nonsense this morning but, had I realized that Greenspan AND Cramer were going to be on Meet the Press yesterday, I would have gone more bullish as those are the two biggest market hypers GE could have used for this week's quotes.

 

Europe seems happy enough with Asia's recovery and all the bull*** commentary (that's bullISH – what were you thinking?) and they are up about a point ahead of our open DESPITE the FACT that Q3 euro area employment is down 0.5%, the fifth straight quarter of contraction.  All sectors reported declines, except public services, health and education.  October euro area industrial output was also down 0.6%, the first contraction since March.  Production was down 11.1% vs. a year ago.  Yes – 11.1% WORSE than last year.  Economists, however, expected a steeper 0.8% decline so yay – I guess…

As we usually do on a Monday, we have to plan to switch off our brains and simply watch our levels.  Other than the silly Dow, we are no closer to making new highs than we were last Monday.  There is little change to our level watch in general as we still need to see those 27.5% levels broken to call this anything but a range top and the NYSE is STILL not even over the 25% line, nor are the Transports, who are still below their retrace level.

        Dow S&P Nasdaq NYSE Russell Trans HSI Nikkei  FTSE  DAX 
Current  10,471  1,106  2,190  7,125  600  1,920  22,085  10,105 5,314  5,807
27.5% Up 10,500 1,127 2,242 7,380 615 2,113 22,421 11,787 5,381 5,894
Recnt High 10,549 1,120 2,190 7,241 625 2,045 23,100 10,397 5,396 5,888
2.5% Down  10,128 1,077 2,139 7,002 587 1,878 21,766 9,913 5,157 5,640
July Base 8,200   880  1,750  5,600  480  1,650  17,500  9,200  4,200  4,600 
25% Up  10,250  1,100 2,187 7,200 600 2,062 21,875 11,500 5,250 5,750
Retrace 9,840 1,056 2,100 6,720 576 1,980 21,000 11,040  5,040 5,520

No wonder our plays from 2 weeks ago performed so well last week – NOTHING HAPPENED!  Since most of our trades are the selling of premium, we love it when an entire week goes by the market doesn't move.  Sure it can go up 500 and down 500 – we don't care – as long as it ends up in the same spot and last Monday morning we were at Dow 10,388, S&P 1,105, Nas 2,194, NYSE 7,182 and Russell 602.  So it was a big, fat nothing for the week last week but today they've got the hype machine cranked up all over again because 67,200 brand new suckers were born over the past 7 days and Cramer, Greenspan, Goldman and all the other carnival barkers are going to do whatever it takes to bring 'em into the tent.

XOM pitched in this morning with a $31Bn deal to by natural gas giant XTO and that's boosting the entire energy sector but it's an all stock deal, which is kind of like you buying 20% of your neighbor's house at an inflated value by pledging to give him 20% of your house at the same inflated value and then holding a press conference to tell investors: "Look how valuable our houses are!"  Once again, at a birth rate of 6 suckers a minute, you can do stupid crap like this and make it work…

As a bullish hedge, I was struck by the still very high premiums in the Russell Index Futures that we can take advantage of as they sit right on the 600 line.  You can buy the Dec $590 calls for $14 and sell the $600 calls for $7.50 and sell the Jan $560 puts for $7.50 which is a net $1 credit and you collect $10 more if the Russell holds 600 through expiration, at which point you can set a stop on buying back the puts or just ride them out for an additional gain if we stay bullish.  I'll be making a similar play on IWM and other ETFs for members in chat this morning as we need some upside covers but it's likely to be more of a watch and wait day as we see how high they can push it.

Be careful out there.

 

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I am curious if any of you follow those emals sent to us from swing trading portfolio. I’ve been ignoring them. Cannot handle so much. Are they more directional plays (just buy and sell options)? And not dealing with these buy/write or mattress etc?

 Phil:  When you talk about going to 80% cash are you talking about liquidating long option positions, or do you really mean liquidating 80% of long-term stock holdings, as well.  Are you really this bearish?  If so, what kind of correction are you looking for after this long bull run?

kustommz… California has been setting records for a long time in its efforts to create governmental budget deficits. As a resident, along with so many others, the remedial  tax proposals addressing the overspending habits are killing me. The responsible are leaving the state in hords. The irresponsible are increasing at the same rate. The only solution is to create a world class institute that specializes in the treatment for "spendaholics" and recruite the graduates to serve in government, otherwise this disease will end in the death of the patient.

gel,  The parties almost over…there is nothing they can do to stimulate the economy enough to cover the short falls in tax collection. 2010 will be a very entertaining year im sure. You know the effect you get from staring at a light and close your eyes, well i close my eyes and all i see is Obama, this guy is on TV way too much reassuring us all we are on the mend…i dont see the signs

gel,  The parties almost over…there is nothing they can do to stimulate the economy enough to cover the short falls in tax collection. 2010 will be a very entertaining year im sure. You know the effect you get from staring at a light and close your eyes, well i close my eyes and all i see is Obama, this guy is on TV way too much reassuring us all we are on the mend…i dont see the signs

Natural Gas is WAY underpriced compared to Oil on a ratio historical basis. The over-supply issue is temporary ( new production has been in remission) and the spread between the two will close. For anybody who assumes oil will level off at the current price, I strongly have to debate a contrary position. Oil will level off in the near future at $100.00 / bl. Demand for oil is still strong, the economy is ostensibly recovering, and inflation will soon factor in along with the depreciating dollar.( All bets are off if Isreal snuffs out Iran’s nuke program ) All this favors a long term upward movement in oil pricing. The out of balance differential between the NG price and Oil will close, resulting a faster upward movement in NG prices. XOM bought a large natural gas producer today for over 5 Bil. at a 25% premium. XOM is not dumb in their projections for NG demand. That is their sector business, and they are damn good at it. Accordingly, I upped my positions in UNG and XOM today, looking at the long term appreciation.

kustomz.. The party is really over… just a matter now of counting the bodies that died from overindulgence. This state was the hope of the future, and as a result attracted the best of the best. The government, through its selfish desire to accommodate everybody and everything, in order to serve their whacked out beliefs of what utopia should be, and not to mention their desire for perpetuity in government service (???), has placed everything at risk. The question is how can you reverse this idiocy, when the beneficiarys are in the majority. I guess the only solution is to pass laws that regulate who can vote and procreate.

lynn – yes, the swing trade is for directional positions.  I pay attention to them, as they make me look at things outside my scope and I do play swing trades sometimes.  Last week, in fact, Opt was buying calls, Phil was buy puts on the same company (or vice versa)……you can uncheck Opts emails if you do not want them in your account mnmgt tab.

Gel- what positions are you taking to up your stake in XOM and UNG?
BTW- my home state, Illinois is not far behind CA. The state legislature has been increasing spending at a 6-8% clip for about the past 10+ yrs. Fattening pensions and benefits in general has led to chronic deficits and more borrowing. They just cannot say no. The current recession is NOT the problem Here in IL it has been irresponsible government has been a hallmark of both parties for an extended period.

Folks – just catching up with the chat
 
chaps/magret:  For CBOE contracts (SPX, RUT, NDX, etc.), TOS does pass on the Options Regulatory Fee (small amount per contract) when you put in an order, whether the order is executed, cancelled or expired: 
http://www.cboe.org/publish/RegCir/RG09-021.pdf
 
judah/PM – yes, move to TOS for PM.  You’d also need to show 3 years of options trading experience to qualify.  I asked TDA and they gave the same answer (working on implementing it).
 
cwan/SPX short strangles – I took more short strangle profit off the table today.  SPX spreads did very well today, while the RUT short strangles didn’t do as well because RUT jumped $9.4.  I’ll be selling into the excitement if RUT and SPX keep going up this week (selling OTM calls).
 
Judah/cwan – I did look into Feb contracts in the weekend to see which strikes I can play.  Looking at the Monthly SPX chart, strikes 900 and 950 has plenty of support for the short PUTs.  My worry there is the low VIX.  SPX Feb 900 PUT is $3.7 today, and 950 PUT is $6.25.  So a quick 5% drop in the index means we’d have $2.55 paper loss on the Feb 900 PUT, plus another $2 from the increased VIX.  The Feb 1000 PUT is $11, so the paper loss would be $6.75 if we have the Feb 950 short PUTs for a 5% market drop.  If we are forced to play in the next couple of weeks (because the Jan’s contracts have lost most of their values), then we’d scale in with 1/2 position or less with the 900 short PUT.  This gives us the option to roll up to Feb 950 short PUT for additional credit, if we could pick a short term bottom. 
 
On the CALL side, SPX 1200 is as high as 2005 levels,  so I’m looking at SPX 1210 – 1225 short CALLs, and will add if the market is 2-3% higher.  I’d add both the short CALL and PUT at the same time, but knowing that I have more downside than upside cushion.  The Feb 1040/1030 long PUT vertical is relatively cheap at $1.8 for a nice hedge.  Lastly, SPX 1300 is the levels in 2006.  We’d be truely amazed if the market gets there in 2010.  Anyhow, with SPX Feb 1210 short CALLS, we can roll at least 2-3% every month, so we’d get to 1300 callers by June if needed.

cramer pumping C, finaly something usefull

tchay. I am studying the mattress strategy u taught me last friday, do u think u have time for questions if ur around….

Lynn,
if you want, you can call me 403-685-1404

what time zone are u in?
not sure I have enough minutes, let me try here a bit first since I wrote this up….
ok. starting fr "when Phil call  a bottom" what do u mean "u will move ur short ATM and double it (maybe move them away 1 month)" ?  How do u move your short….and so far there is only 1 short fr the beginning at 105 (and it is like u said, no longer ATM but very deep ITM as the market dropped)? do u mean u buy back the 105 short and sell 2 short ATM a month away?
Also, when market start going up, u sell all the long put except the last 2 that u bought (why not sell all if market bottomed)

Phil/80% cash.  Helps me sleep at night.  I can live with missing a move up to, say, Dow 11,000 in the next few weeks.  I suppose if you took Gel’s idea of a year-end guessing game (for legal reasons, bragging rights are all you get for being right), you’d have a good idea of whether your members are turning more bullish than you are.  My guess is we continue sideways through the year–Dow 10,400. 

 I have a theory as to what the end game the Obama administration is playing for.
 
If I knew that saving this country required very very serious measures to be taken and that those measures would piss off just about everyone, I would spend my first 4 years in office making a list of every thing and everyone who has to change.  I would try not to F*ck up the country to bad for the first 4 year so that I can get re-elected.  By then I should have everyone in place to make whatever changes I need to. Once I get re-elected for the next 4 years I would unleash hell and do exactly what I thought this country needs to ensure we don’t collapse.  
 
Basically, if he tries to do everything that is needed now, he wont get elected to a second term.  So why not spend all this term preparing for what is needed, then next term when there is nothing to loose, Just be like,
 
1.  screw you health insurance companies, welcome to cheap nationalized healthcare.
 
2.  Wall street, you can go pound sand and every bank which is under water, you get to fail.  Then take all that tarp money and set up 20 banks with 35 billion each that are mandated to lend to consumers not play in the markets(I stole this idea from somewhere but I cant remember šŸ™ )
 
3.  Afghanistan, F**CK your country, our guys are coming home.
 
4.  Iraq, see #3
 
5.  Taxes, switch to a consumption tax, no more income tax.  Goods and services are taxed, not income.
 
6.  Service, If you volunteer for 2 years of military service, or whatever else the government decides you need to do (americorps or something like that) you get free room and board at whatever college you can get into for as many years as you want.  The same service lets you be set free from all student loans.
 
7.  No more buying oil from any middle eastern country.  Tell the whole region to go stuff it.  See how much terrorism you can fund when Oil crashes to $5 a barrel(slight exageration).
 
Ok, consider my rant done.  But I think the idea might hold water,  get a lay of the land your first 4 years in, put people in position, get re-elected, rough sh*t up your second term.

Hi, Peter,
Thanks a lot on the SPX plays!
 
I am also thinking about selling OTM calls if SPX keeps going up this week.  What strikes are you looking at?  I am thinking Jan 1150 calls.  What do you think?
 
As far as regulatory fees, I haven’t seen TOS charging any fees after I modified / canceled an SPX option order.  Maybe they piled those fees into the trades that were executed?

Lynn,
I’m in Calgary , now is 4:35 PM
yes,
when you think that market is on bottom, you just buy back your one short call (ITM) and sell two ATM calls, because VIX will be high, you will do it without any additional money
if you sell all your long puts, what do you plan to do with your shorts?
main idea sooner or later make your short puts loose all their value
you can sell all your longs and keep your shorts, but what if you wrong? and market continue to go down?

yup yup, that’s a stupid q. basically u buy (layer) long put with every 2 point drop. but when  it start to go up
1 u sell all older put (except the last 2 u bought, but do u still keep the trailing stop on these 2 long put?)
2 buy back the original (or first put u sold), plus double buy 1 more put at the money (at right at this month too?)
3.for the last 2 long put, what if it triggers the trailing stop if market go back up violently? then u do some re-adjustment?
all these steps, which ones are what Phil always keep "cover with xxx (what action)"? is buying back the original put sold "cover"?

Lynn,
no you don’t keep any trailing stop for last two long puts
as soon as market start going up, you just roll them up again for 0.5$ for each $1 of strikes

all those delta, theta that would gives u the amount of gain or drop per each $1 drop—are these info a/v somewhere? is it why everyone is using TOS cuz they provide them?
Also, the short put sold (105), since its same month, it would’ve increase a lot  when the market kept dropping, and would be a lot more expensive to buy, unless the double that we sold will pay for them (is it what happened in reality ?)
 
also why do u say "when we have short puts at the bottom of the market we will be fully covered and they will pay full price of rolling longs up at the top of the market, if it continue to go higher we will be 1/2 covered and they will pay at least half of price of rolling longs up"
when market bottomed, u sold the long puts. do u have to keep buying (rolling) the longs just like when the market was going down? I basically don’t get the 2nd part of what u said Friday.
maybe i can re-read Phils mattress strategy to see what I am missing

Lynn,
don’t forget that when Phil call 1/2 or full cover, he just daytrade mattress to scweeze extra 0.2 – 0.5$ of profit – if you are not comfortable with it just stay 1/2 covered and keep your resting order to roll your longs one strike up for 0.5$

Pstas
Sorry to hear about the similar dillema Illinois is experiencing with regard to similar wreckless government financial policy. I believe this policy was innovated in California, and has unfortunately migrated eastward. I say this, because, all you have to do is observe the all time crazy fiscal policy prevailing in Washington, as originated and supported by the California members of Congress. Need I say more ??? Anyway, with better thoughts in mind, I have held XOM for a very long time (stock), and I enthusiastically doubled my position today, as I feel it has a strong chance of doing better in the future. I also like the dividend. The stock tracks fairly closely the value movements of oil, and I am a believer oil is in a temporary holding pattern, which will see a substantial upword movement well above $100.00/bl, as the dynamics of the world economy and oil demand evolve. The very positive strategic acquisition today of a NG producer is, in my mind, very strategically clever, as I think NG is underpriced at the present, and is a very big deal in the future. I also have a large XOM naked put position in the July 65’s. As far as NG positions, I have short put positions in the 2011 UNG  8’s, and a huge position in UNG 7’s. As you might surmise I’m looking for premium income on NG, and a long term appreciation on XOM stock. I am very bullish on oil price appreciation going forward, and energy stocks in general, holding a lot of other positions in the sector.. I have a large position in BP, as I believe in the company, and I like the dividend, as well as the opportunity to sell the front month calls for income.

cwan, I’m more comfortable with selling the Jan 1180 CALLs as Dow 11000 is about 1150, so 1150 strike doesn’t give you much room to move.  Plus we have PM, so we can use it by selling further out of the money and sell more contracts if needed.

Lynn,
delta, theta and other greeks you can get from any platform, not just from TOS
if you buy back your one short put and sell two puts at the money,  even if you do it at the same month – price of 2 ATM puts still will be same or higher than price of your one In The Money Put
at the bottom, you will have two remaining long puts and two short puts ( mean fully covered) and if market will go up – you will make money from your 2 shorts as much as you need to pay for rolling your longs up

 craig(bazooka) i have a better understanding of your moniker, you just reminded of this great scene from back to school šŸ™‚

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xfi4s8cjLFI

tchayipov for a good time call 403-685-1404, on bathroom stalls across America
LOL, that was very nice of you and i commend your dedication to help out a fellow member in a such a capacity. Bravo!

 Major contraction in global GDP in the coming year? Japan "An index of sentiment at small manufacturers will worsen to minus 42 in March from December’s minus 40, the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey showed yesterday. Large companies plan to cut spending 13.8 percent in the year ending March 2010, the second-worst projection on record."

China bubbles everywhere, enough said.

India, rampant inflation

Germany (Eurozone) Euro-zone industrial production fell in October from September, the first such drop since March, highlighting the fragility of the economic recovery and suggesting a tough final quarter for the sector, data showed Monday.
According to Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics agency, industrial production in the 16 countries that use the euro declined 0.6% in October from September and was down 11.1% from the year-earlier month. The annual fall was the 18th straight year-to-year decline.

Britain, what a mess
In Britain, where the nation’s economy and finances have fallen so sharply that investors fear a possible downgrade of the country’s triple-A rating, bond traders are also taking a hard line.

The bond vigilantes are back

Governments cant spend forever and i think after banks pay back tarp they are going to hoard cash with ever tightening fists. Wait till the CC bills start coming in the mail in Jan and Feb, can

so the longs (long puts), u buy more when market go down and do nothing about them till Phil call bottom.
but then u havr to roll longs up (selling old longs and buy new longs) if market heading up?

Hi, Peter,
What do you do with Jan 1040/1030 put verticals?  We bought them at > $2.00.  They are now about $1.  Keep them for a while?

Lynn,
when market drop and you buy more puts every 2 point of drop, you don’t need to wait when Phill call bottom to get profit from your longs, just as soon as you buy one more put, set a trailing stop to one most profitable(deepest in the money) put

I think the next thing to do is a paper trading so I can actually come across problems to ask and see how Phil adjust it.
Like I kinda got what  the buy/write trade is:
1-buy the stock and sell equal call and put ATM same month, then if it went up, sold the stock, lock in gain. If it drops, ur assigned another set and just like double down but at a discount due to call and put sold

Craigzooka
You have mixed too much prune juice/vodka with the Kool Aid… We do not need more government, but we are in need of the inverse IMO. Go back 90 years in history, where government was 10% of the GNP, the US was the pride of the world. Today the government is over 50% of GNP and we are in a precipitous embarassing decline. Could there be cause/effect corelation factoring the standard deviation ????

cwan, as long as we have the short strangles, we’d keep them.  In fact, since they are $1, I kept them even if I took some short strangles off the table.  The vertical can go to $5 if the market drops 5%.  Additionally, if the market stays flat or keeps going up, I learned that I can sell off the long PUT (the 1040), and keep the putters (1030) with 1-2 weeks to expiration for another $1 profit.  Not a bad play where we spent $2 in protection and get $1 back that close to expiration.

this fr Phil "As far as a proper artificial buy/write, let’s say I want to do a buy/write on AAPL but it’s friggin’ $200 a share and that costs me about $15,000 just to do a single set.  Do I NEED to own AAPL?  No, they don’t pay a dividend and the July $175s are $34 so that’s an effective purchase price of $209 vs. $194 for the stock.  I can sell the Jan $195 calls for $7.45 and the Apr $175 puts for $8.75 for net $17.80 on the $20 spread so I CAN’T be hurt to the upside but keep in mind that you do end up having AAPL put to you at $192.80 so what you have effectively done is eliminate the discounting function of the buy/write.  Of course, if you make it through Jan expiration OK, you now have control of 100 shares of AAPL for $1,780 + (according to TOS) $2,743 in margin vs the same put side margin in a regular buy/write plus the $9K for owning the stock.  These are VERY aggressive plays and a big drop can absolutely kill you so they should be used sparingly"
this is a buy/write without owning the stock but did Phil make calcuation mistake for " I can sell the Jan $195 calls for $7.45 and the Apr $175 puts for $8.75 for net $17.80". i only get $16.2 credit on that spread.

Nat Gas – we are now the Saudi Arabia of Nat Gas – so I am not sure that historical comparisons to the ratio between nat gas and oil are valid – our reserves are so much larger than anyone realized ten or fifteen years ago.
Not sure why more cars are not converting – Phil mentioned taxis in Vegas – some taxis in NY are now on Nat gas but not enough –
If Bloomberg were made dictator for life, all of the taxis would be green.

Lynn
if you buy July 175 call for $34
and sell Jan$195 call for $7.45
and sell Apr $175 put for $8.75
34 – 7.45 – 8.75 = 17.8

Peter – What do you like in Feb for RUT?

oh, Phil means buying the $175 July call.  so what happened if its called away at 195? and u dont actually have the shares to sell?

curious, how long have u been trading options? Tchay?
and why is Pharmboy and Peter on different color bg when they post? r they staff here or just member like the rest of us?

Peter – I don’t have Portfolio margin.  When I compare a RUT short strangle vs. a SPX short strangle the buying power is much more for the SPX and it shows much lower max profit for the same buying power.   I know it would be nice to diversify, but it seems that the RUT provides more bang for the buck.  Is that correct?

ssdirk, I like 480 and 680, give or take 10-20 points.  RUT 500 has supports from 2000, 2001 and 2002 (if they count).  680 is the 2005 level, and I can’t imagine it can go up to 740, which is the Sep 2008 level before the crash.  We can handle the roll to 740 easily (by June) if we start with 680.

ssdirk, I think cwan (or was it balance?) asked the same question on RUT/SPX.  RUT options premium is higher, and thus gives a higher return theoretically.  However, its option strikes are wider ($10 strikes) and RUT is more volatile, so adjustments would be more costly than SPX.  After trading these for a while, you’ll find out that the SPX return can be higher than RUT.

Tchay, I’d like to thank YOU for lending a helping hand. Later

I saw this in the emaila http://www.philstockworld.com/2009/12/14/aapl-bull-buys-call-spread/
"GLD – SPDR Gold Trust ETF – A bullish risk reversal on the gold ETF today points to a rebound in gold bullion prices by expiration in February 2010. Shares of the GLD added nearly 1% during the trading day to stand at $110.23. One trader sold 9,650 puts at the February 110 strike for 4.70 each in order to partially finance the purchase of 9,650 calls at the same strike for 4.90 apiece. The net cost of the reversal amounts to just 20 cents per contract. Profits amass on the transaction if shares of the fund rally through the breakeven price of $110.20 by expiration day in February 2010."
what if GLD drop below @110? what will happen to this trade if by expiration its below 110

 gel1, the post was meant to be quite sarcastic.  From an investing standpoint lets consider the following scenario.
 
First, the assumptions.
1.  If the market tanks too hard, Obama will not get re-elected.
2.  The equity market is currently over valued using just about any measure you can think of.
3.  I dont know what the fixes to our current economic problems are, but I believe that any fix will the require  the current bubbles in equities, commodities, and commercial real-estate to be popped.
4. Obama wants to get re-elected.
5.  Obama actually cares about the long term future of our nation not just getting re-elected.
 
So I am starting to believe the Obama administration has a very big interest in keeping the market afloat rather that fixing anything.  That means no kind of sweeping reform will take place until after elections in 2012.  If #5 is acually true then I expect 2012 to be a crazy volatile and wild ride.  
 
Under the previous scenario should we be slightly more bullish?  
 
Can someone come along and tank the market so hard Obama cant fix it?
 
Is there some kind of conspiracy to tank the market right before we have to sell crap loads of bonds so they sell at a good interest rate?
 
I apologize if this is a little disjointed.  I am in the middle of studying for an Algebra Final exam and I can’t figure out the following problem, so if anyone out there happens to be a mathematician I could really use your help.  
 

#5. Show that if R is a commutative ring with 1 that is not a field, then R[x] is not a
principal ideal ring.

 
So if anyone knows anything about how to com

 In the same class with that last problem we had the following (its fun cause it has pirates)
 

A band of 13 pirates stole a sack of coins. When they tried to divide them equally among themselves, 2 coins remained. In the brawl that followed, two pirates were killed. Again, they tried to divide the coins equally, only to find 7 coins remaining. Four more pirates were killed! Now, when they tried to divide the coins, 3 were left. The pirates became very upset and frustrated and they shot each other. You came across their sack of coins. What is the smallest amount of coins you own now?
 
I have a solution to this problem,  as a hint it is less than 600.

Craigzooka
I can’t agree with your assumptions, other than "Obama wants to get re-elected", and I am not really sure of that premise. Assuming the man has intelligence, I do not believe, following the wreckless path he is following will ever get him re-elected, and he must be aware at this time of that fact. He has yet to complete the first year of his presidency, and has a serious negative approval rating. The populace is discovering he is a fraud, and nothing he said in his campaign is proving to be truthful.The man spoke in platitudes ( Hope and Change is whatever you want it to beand is totally subjective with no real definition Even the Nobel Peace Prize committee is expressing regret (after only one week after he is presented with the prize).  Did the American people elect him in order to convert the country into a Socialist government entity, recklessly in debt to the level bordering bankrupt status, with no possible way to pay it back without debasing the currency? Obama was completely unfit for the magnitude of the office he was seeking and totally misrepresented himself, and never really said what his agenda would be, or the type of low lifes he would bring into the government to take over the day to day responsibilities that are so critical to our needs.For his sake, I hope he is not looking forward to another term, as he will have less of a chance than Jimmy Carter ever hoped to have, and his disappointment will equal his dismal performance. 

"Natural Gas is WAY underpriced compared to Oil on a ratio historical basis."
I never understood this and I still don’t. Why would we assume this ratio is meaningful rather than coincidence? Cars, power stations, boilers can be converted from gas to oil or vice versa, but isn’t this process expensive  and complex enough to take years or decades, rather than days or weeks?
Bread and chewing gum have long held a historical price ratio (I assert that this is actually true), but a failure of the wheat crop doesn’t drive up the price of chewing gum…..

Craigzooka/
looks like it is 535 coins

hey prime numbers

Its more of a social problem, people shouldn’t be so greedy
 

 

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