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Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Thursday Thrust – Rent-A-Rebel Pops Oil Over $106 Just in Time for the Holidays

The boyz are back in town!  

By boyz, I mean al-Qeada and by town, I mean Tikrit, which is about 40 miles from Baghdad which has "dad" in it and Father's day is Sunday so now you are all caught up on the Middle East.

Oh, and that's not picture of the rebel attackers – that's a picture of the Iraqi "army" mounting a response to "dozens" of rebels who came into town "a hootin' and a hollerin'" and shooting up the place.  As I pointed out to our Members, with 200,000,000 fake orders for July oil deliveries that have to be canceled by next Friday – all it costs is $10M to pay al-Qeada to cause a ruckus and oil pops $2 overnight and the contract holders make an extra $400,000,000 – a very nice return on their investment.  CNN had footage of the attack:

 

As you can see, the situation is dire – until they get a new sheriff.  Meanwhile, oil is over $106 (7:45) and it was over $106 earlier and we shorted the cross below the line in our Live Member Chat room at 6:37 and picked up a quick $250 per contract at $105.75 and we'll short any cross below any .50 line with tight stops above on the way down – as, eventually, there will be a new sheriff – or at least a shareef

At the moment, oil is back over $106 and we're ready to re-load (at $106.50 with very tight stops).  As we did yesterday, we're happy to make $250-$500 per move as it wriggles around in the channel.  You can't beat these guys – may as well join them!  

We'll likely add USO puts or SCO (ultra-short oil) longs to our Short-Term Portfolio with an eye towards oil going no higher than $110 into the July 4th weekend (as we discussed in Tuesday's Webinar) but failing to hold that, or even $105, for an extended period.  Meanwhile, we'll keep an eye on the advancing al-Qeada forces as our Corporate Media makes the biggest possible mountain out of this mole-hill to justify their sponsors jacking up the price of oil – AS USUAL – into the biggest driving weekend of the year.  

Last June, oil was between $91 and $95 all the way until the last week of June but then, magically, it shot up over $105 just in time to screw Americans over at the pump and was held up around $110 into Labor Day, topping out at $112 before plunging back below $100 in September and all the way back to $92.50 in October.  That's why we'll be playing October shorts on oil – just like we did last year, when I said on August 28th (with oil at $110 and climbing, that time using Syria as an excuse):

SocGen calls for oil to go to $150?!?   That's a lot of money for oil.  That would put gasoline up around $5 per gallon so the easy trade here is to grab some /RB Futures contracts ($3.07) and, at $420 per penny, per contract, a single contract would pay us $81,060 if gasoline hits $5 – that's enough money to buy a Tesla, and then we never have to buy gas again!

For anyone who believes the idiocy being spun by Societe Generale or their other Bankster buddies as they bang the fear drum, accompanied by their MSM puppets – just buy a single, long gasoline Futures contract and you'll find yourself rooting for death and destruction in the middle east.

As you can see from the chart of oil Futures above – there's still plenty of money to be made on the short side as we only play the crosses BELOW the .50 lines and, even though oil went over $110 and fooled us once for a quick stop – it went all the way up to $112 without a retrace, then fell all the way to $111 for a $1,000 per contract gain and then fell through $111 to $110 for another $1,000 gain and then through $110 to $109.50, for another $500 gain.  Our job is just to stay in position, ahead of "The Big One" – like we had in the Summer of 1987:   

Original_15340764

I know most analysts like to pretend they have original ideas for you but I'm happy to tell you that, last year, I thought we should do the same thing that worked in 1987 and this year I'm telling you we can do the same thing that worked in 2013 and ultimately paid us over $10,000 per contract.  In fact, I called on the President to give me the keys to the SPR so I could use it to short ALL of the NYMEX oil contracts (360M barrels worth at the time).  By October 22nd, that trade idea would have paid back $3.9 BILLION!  

As I said at the time:

Even if you didn't have $1.6Bn laying around, shorting a NYMEX Futures contract uses just $4,500 in margin (and don't miss our Options and Futures Trading Seminar in Las Vegas, Nov 10th and 11th) the LOX3 November $110 Futures option I suggested as an alternative on 8/28 cost just $450 per contract and paid off $1,000 when it expired last week (options expire earlier than the Futures, which expire today) a quick gain of 122% on whatever cash (no margin required) you may have had laying around to make a play.  

You can read those two posts to get an idea of all the different ways we were able to make money shorting oil last year and here we are again, coming into "Summer Driving Season" and again we will have an opportunity to make a ton of money on the back end – but it's a slow process and you have to be PATIENT and manage your position sizes to allow for the fact that oil can pop up another $10 and it could last a few month.  That's why we went over the scaling in and out strategies in Tuesday's Futures Trading Webinar.  

USO WEEKLYThe same(ish) strategies apply to options we will take on USO and SCO and yes, we'll look at the Futures Options on oil as well in our Live Member Chat room (which you can subscribe to HERE).  

It's not all oil trading, of course – just this morning we sent out an Alert to our Members adding two stocks to our Long-Term Portfolio.  But, for the moment, oil is going to be exciting, so we'll play it.  

In fact, while I was writing this (now 8:42), we caught the move back to $106.50 and then got another $250 per contract drop back to $106.25 and now we can afford a REALLY good breakfast with our two morning wins and we'll see if 3rd time's a charm as we prepare to reload.  

This is very exciting stuff – time for me to head off to the Live Chat Room!  

 

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