Maybe they are just old but it struck me that no one in the Graham crowd was holding up a phone to record what he was saying. That seems strange since people tend to document everything they care about - made me wonder if the crowd was bused in for show....
Faessel/Rustle - Good summary of events.
The median trailing P/E of all S&P 500 stocks is 18.7 and that’s currently two points above the (SPX) index’s historical average; Q2 Standard & Poor’s 500 earnings per share are currently projected to decline 4%, according to Capital IQ aggregate estimates, while subsequent quarters are forecast to show a gradual recovery.
So 2 points over 16.7 would be 12% overvalued, not counting the 4% expected decline in earnings and ignoring the fact that AAPL is adding 2% to earnings all by itself. It does matter because it means you should buy AAPL but the rest of the S&P has some very serious problems. It's like being shown 500 homes in a development and 499 of them are on fire but the realtor tells you that, rather than buy the one that isn't on fire, you should buy an ETF of all the homes to spread out your risk. Is that actually good advice or idiocy?
In the “real-world” interest rates are in a hot advance
That's the end of the World for France, Greece and most of China, who are leveraged to the hilt on cheap money and still can't make their payments - even at these low rates.
Baltic Dry not that scary as it reflects way too much optimism for ships on orders that were placed 10 years ago (2005), when things were busy, and are being delivered today, when they are not. So the BDI is not down to to low demand (the LA port activity tells us that), they are down because there are tons of brand new huge ships around and the shipping companies haven't scrapped old ships to take capacity off the market but have sold them to other shipping companies who use that low cost-basis to undercut the bidding because a bigger ship is an advantage only to the shipper - the customer doesn't give a damn what kind of ship you have - only that his stuff gets from point a to point b as cheaply as possible.
