Financial Markets and Economy
Four Recent Bubble Warnings That You Need To Worry About (Forbes)
I’ve been sounding the alarm in recent years about dangerous new bubbles that have been inflating since the Global Financial Crisis. As I wrote in a viral report last month, I believe that record low interest rates and central bank stimulus programs are the main fuel behind these bubbles and that they will lead to a crisis that is even worse than 2008. In the meantime, these bubbles are creating artificial economic strength and activity that is manifesting itself in the form of our economic recovery.
Construction Spending increased 2.2% in April (Calculated Risk)
The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during April 2015 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,006.1 billion, 2.2 percent above the revised March estimate of $984.0 billion. The April figure is 4.8 percent above the April 2014 estimate of $960.3 billion.
Is This A Recession Within a Recession? (EconMatters)
On Friday, the federal government announced that the U.S. economy contracted at a 0.7 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2015. This unexpected shrinking of the economy is being primarily blamed on “harsh” weather during the first three months of this year and on the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Most economists are confident that U.S. GDP will rebound back into positive territory when the numbers for the second quarter come out, but if that does not happen we will officially meet the government’s criteria for being in another “recession”.
How Much More Extreme Can Markets Get? (Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds Blog)
These charts help us understand that a top is not just price, but a reversal in extremes of margin debt, valuation and sentiment.
In blow-off tops, extremes of valuation, complacency and margin debt can always shoot beyond previous extremes to new extremes. This is why guessing when the blow-off top implodes is so hazardous: extreme can always get more extreme.
U.S. Economy: A Cinderella's Pumpkin Carriage? (EconMatters)
The past six years of expansion have been as illusory as Cinderella's magic carriage.
The clock is about to strike midnight, and our Cinderella economy's magic carriage will revert to a pumpkin. The magic of the Federal Reserve's flood-the-fields policies of zero interest rates (ZIRP) and liquidity (via quantitative easing (QE) and other programs) had an expiration date of December 2014, judging by the negative gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter and the deep slump in corporate profits.
Dollar General, Cracker Barrel, Guess earnings in focus (Market Watch)
Among the shares expected to see active trade in Tuesday’s session are those of Dollar General Corp., Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. and Guess Inc.
After Monday’s closing bell, PVH Corp. (PVH) reported its first-quarter earnings rose to $1.37 a share, up from 42 cents a share a year ago. Adjusted for one-time items, the company earned $1.50 a share, ahead of $1.38 a share projected by analysts.
May Consumer Spending Has Biggest Annual Drop Since Great Financial Crisis, Gallup Survey Finds (Zero Hedge)
It may not have the clout of the official monthly Dept of Commerce Retail Sales report not due out for two more weeks, but in retrospect considering how many credibility issues with seasonal adjustments government data has had in recent months, the Gallup Consumer Spending report may have become far more realistic than official government data.
OPEC Crude Price Tops $60 a Barrel for First Time in 6 Months (Market Watch)
The price of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reference basket of crude oils rose to $62.15 a barrel in May, the first time the basket’s monthly price has topped $60 a barrel since last November. OPEC crude hit a low at less than $49 a barrel on March 17, and its most recent daily high was posted on May 6 at $64.96 a barrel.
Stocks and Trading
GoGo Shares Making a Comeback (24/7 Wall St)
From a peak of around $36 a share in December of 2013 to a valley of near $12 about six months later, in-flight Internet provider GoGo Inc. (NASDAQ: GOGO) has had its ups and downs. The latest up came in February with the announcement from Delta Air Lines Co. (NYSE: DAL) that the airline would add GoGo’s traditional Ku-band inflight connectivity to some of Delta’s international fleet of Boeing 777s, 767s, 747s and the transoceanic version of its 757-200.
U.S. Stocks Drift Higher Ahead of Big Data Week (Wall Street Journal)
U.S. stocks drifted higher in quiet trading Monday, ahead of a busy week of data.
Trading in recent weeks has been mostly driven by concerns about the economy’s health and uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve will start to raise interest rates. In the background, news out of Europe has loomed, as investors remain worried about Greece’s ability to secure a financing deal with its international creditors. On Friday stocks fell, closing out a quiet trading month that featured several record highs but little volatility or investor enthusiasm.
Ashley Furniture explores sale (Market Watch)
Ashley Furniture Industries Inc. is exploring a sale that could value the big Wisconsin furniture maker at more than $3 billion.
The family-owned company is working with investment bank Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on the process, which is in an early stage, according to people familiar with the matter. It is possible it won’t lead to a sale of the company.
Politics
Iowa Democrats Stick With Hillary Clinton in Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Poll (Bloomberg)
Hillary Clinton remains the overwhelming favorite among Iowa Democrats looking ahead to next year's presidential caucuses, though Bernie Sanders has quickly risen as Elizabeth Warren's proxy for the anti-establishment alternative.
Clinton is the first choice for 57 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers in a new Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll conducted May 25-29, up a percentage point from the previous poll in January.
The Latest Republican Presidential Contender is Lindsey Graham (Think Progress)
South Carolina Senator and foreign policy hawk Lindsey Graham announced on Monday in his hometown of Central, SC that he will joining the growing list of contenders for the Republican nomination for the presidency.
Graham stands out from the rest of the pack as one of the few Republicans in the field who have served in the military. His decades-long military career ended on Monday when his retirement from the Air Force Reserve took effect, and his experiences serving the country have shaped his time in Washington.
Technology
Microsoft Wraps Its Windows 10 Pitch, Here’s What You Need To Know (Tech Crunch)
Microsoft announced today that Windows 10 will be available on July 29. The date matches prior leaks and promises from the company regarding when the new operating system will touch down. The release schedule also puts Windows 10 into the market before the back-to-school PC sales cycle, and, of course, the holiday season.
The software company is, in other words, putting itself in as good a spot as it can be to get Windows 10 into the hands of as many PC buyers as possible. The company also announced a ‘reserve‘ program that allows people to sign up, in a sense, for Windows 10. The new code, of course, will be a free upgrade for most PC users.
Health and Life Sciences
Brain implant that decodes intention will let us probe free will (New Scientist)
The most intriguing aspect of Andersen's work, he says, is that we are now able for the first time to record the brain activity underlying intentions while asking about a person's conscious experience. For example, Andersen's team has already started to repeat classic free will experiments in which researchers try to use brain activity to predict a person's decisions before they are consciously aware of making any.
"We will be able to look carefully into big philosophical questions of whether a person's future decisions can be decoded from their neural activity before the individual is aware of having formed them – and what that all means for our ideas on free will," says Diedrichsen. "It really captures the imagination."
(Right picture by Geralt at Pixabay)
Artificial DNA links up just like the real thing (New Scientist)
TWO artificial DNA "letters" can link up just like the natural versions, paving the way for incorporating the newcomers into living cells.
Synthetic biologists are racing to come up with artificial versions of the building blocks of life. "We have been basically reinventing the genetic alphabet from the bottom up," says Steven Benner of the Foundation for Applied Molecular Evolution in Alachua, Florida. Hopes for such fake DNA range from developing new drugs to creating artificial life.
Life on the Home Planet
New climate stress index model challenges doomsday forecasts for world's coral reefs (Phys)
Recent forecasts on the impacts of climate change on the world's coral reefs—especially ones generated from oceanic surface temperature data gathered by satellites—paint a grim picture for the future of the "rainforests of the sea."
A newer and more complex model incorporating data from both environmental factors and field observations of coral responses to stress provides a better forecasting tool than the more widely used models and a more positive future for coral reefs, according to a new study by the Wildlife Conservation Society and other groups.
Texas, Oklahoma Floodwaters Contain Sewage, Other Pollutants (National Geographic)
Rains that have flooded portions of the middle part of the United States have damaged buildings, swept away cars and houses, and killed at least 18 people in Texas and Oklahoma. And with a chance of more rain forecast this week, these hard-hit areas aren't out of the woods yet.
In Texas, the enormous amount of stormwater has overwhelmed some treatment facilities, washing chemicals and toxic substances into the mix, including raw sewage, crude oil, and pesticides.
