HOV/DC - I have faith because they are still building and selling developments that people like to live in. With builders, all the other stuff is just accounting BS, which is why I don't generally play them - too difficult to separate what's real from what's just tax mumbo-jumbo.
In our LTP, we sold 80 HOV Jan $5 puts for $1.50 ($12,000) so net $3.50 on our entry. Those are now $2.65 ($21,200) and we're going to roll them to 2017 $4 puts ($1.75 = $8,750) and pick up 50 of the $2 calls for 0.70 ($3,500) and what that does is give us a realized $9,200 loss plus a $3,500 new investment and, at $4, we get $6,500 back and at $9 it's another $5,000 so profits begin at about $4.60 on the net position with no upper limit (though we may sell calls on a move up).
So I like this as a new trade and I'd sell 10 of the HOV 2017 $4 puts for $1.75 ($1,750) and buy 20 of the $2 calls for 0.70 ($1,400) and that's net $350 per set with a profit over $3.65 and at $4 it's $700 (200% of cash) and at $5 it's $2,700, etc.
Shorts/Jeff - Good call, it does look toppy here (17,868, 2,088.75, 4,472 and 1,262) but it's a dangerous play, so be careful.
