Financial Markets and Economy
Divided Fed Puts Yellen on Hot Seat (Jon Hilsenrath, Wall Street Journal)
The Federal Reserve faces a potential cliffhanger about whether to raise interest rates at its September meeting, a decision that will test Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s ability to lead an uncertain policy-making committee.
Officials have signaled for months they intend to start raising short-term rates from near-zero interest before year-end. But they have provided no clear sign of having settled on whether to move at their next policy meeting Sept. 16-17. Minutes of their July 28-29 meeting, released Wednesday, underscored why the decision remains a close call.
[Type title into Google search bar if you don’t have a subscription to the WSJ. ~ ed.]
Futures Indicate S&P 500 to Fall Third Day on Global Growth Fear (Bloomberg)
U.S. stock-index futures slid, indicating equities will extend losses for a third day, as concern mounts over China and its impact on emerging markets and global growth.
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index E-mini contracts expiring in September fell 0.8 percent to 2,056.25 at 7:28 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 144 points, or 0.8 percent, to 17,141.
Gold climbs for second day after FOMC boost (Market Watch)
Gold futures rose for a second straight day on Thursday, getting a lift from dovish Federal Reserve minutes and as sliding global stock markets increased the metal’s safe-haven appeal.
Gold for December delivery GCZ5, +1.50% picked up $9, or 0.8%, to $1,136.90 an ounce, building on an $11 rise from Wednesday.
Markets no longer believe 'it' will happen in September (Business Insider)
For a while, markets were confident the Fed would begin tightening monetary policy with an interest rate hike in September.
Not anymore.
On Wednesday, we got the minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting. The details put out a mixed assessment of the economic conditions necessary for the first rate hike in a decade.
America's seeing a spike in these kinds of entrepreneurs (CNN)
When it comes to small business in the United States, more women are running the show.
On Wednesday, the National Women's Business Council released an analysis of preliminary Census data which showed there were nearly 10 million women-owned small businesses in the U.S. in 2012, an almost 22% increase from 2007. (The Census defines a woman-owned business as one where a woman owns 51% or more of the business equity of stock).
Russia Rewrites Growth Blueprint as Recession Dooms Consumer (Bloomberg)
Russia’s consumer economy, powered for more than a decade by a $2.1 trillion energy windfall, is in agony.
Here's a super quick guide to what traders are talking about right now (Business Insider)
Good morning! Global Equity benchmarks are under pressure, thanks to renewed China concerns and less visibility on the September liftoff. The DAX is off 1.2%, dragging the US Benchmarks ~70bp lower thru technical support (SPY 200dma / QQQ 50dma). Financials and Consumer Discretionary are the biggest weights over in Frankfurt, and we are seeing very heavy volume with all major bourses 25%+ more turnover than normal. Luxury goods remain under pressure Swiss Watch makers clubbed as exports to Asia collapse the most in 6years – causing renewed fretting about waning demand from China. Over in Asia, Shanghai lost 3.4% overnight – it’s now nearly 30% below its peak 2mos ago, and chatter has the PBOC bid down near 3500 (FT). Hong Kong shed 1.8%, slipping into bear market territory – Nikkei lost 90bp and Australia fell 1.7% as miners and banks were hit – South Korea was off 1.2% as they exchange fire with the north, while all of the Emerging markets were hit sharply (except Taiwan).
Delta is now basically offering 'economy minus' (CNN)
Looks like the bare-bones ticketing option is spreading beyond low-cost carriers.
Airliners like Spirit (SAVE) and Allegiant (ALGT) are known for offering low fares that charge additional fees for some amenities that come standard on other airlines. But Delta has also been getting in on the pricing structure with its "Basic Economy" tickets.
Here’s what could happen to stocks if commodities rebound (Market Watch)
Today is working up to be anything but the lazy, hazy summer day for trading you might expect.
Let’s start with the nation that inspired “Borat.” Kazakhstan’s official currency, the tenge, took a sharp hit after the government moved it into free float. The Asian nation exports oil. Enough said. (See our chart of the day).
Israeli Gas Finds Up for Grabs as Government Prepares Sales (Bloomberg)
Israel moved one step closer to selling stakes worth billions of dollars in its offshore natural gas fields after the Cabinet approved development plans that may lead to exports of the fuel for the first time.
Futures are red (Business Insider)
Global stock markets are sharply lower on Thursday morning and stock futures are tanking ahead of the US market open.
Near 7:17 a.m. ET, Dow futures were down 131 points, S&P 500 futures were down 15 points, and Nasdaq futures were down 31 points.
Yesterday's session was quite wobbly. The Dow plunged more than 200 points in the morning after data showed softer-than-expected inflation in July. And then, after the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes leaked, stocks bounced well off their lows, only to tumble again into the close. The Dow closed down 162 points.
The ‘Great Moderation’ yielded some no-so-great results (Market Watch)
They call it the “Great Moderation”: the period beginning in the early 1980s when central bankers found religion, whipped inflation and gained the credibility to ensure that a temporary spike in oil prices, for example, did not spill over to inflation expectations.
It was also a period that witnessed the worst financial crisis and the deepest recession since the Great Depression. What went wrong?
Japan Atomic Restart Endures Protest, Volcano as Bond Risk Drops (Bloomberg)
While Japan’s first nuclear power restart had to endure protests and even a volcano alert, the bond market is already pricing in more reactors resuming operations.
The cost to insure Kyushu Electric Power Co. debt against nonpayment fell to 39 basis points last week, the lowest since right after the March 2011 Fukushima meltdown, as its Sendai power station came back online. That for Kansai Electric Power Co. also slid to a four-year low. Twelve reactors will restart by March 31, 2017, out of Japan’s operable fleet of 43, the average of four analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg shows.
Stock futures fall as oil weighs, Fed notes global growth fears (Business Insider)
U.S. stock index futures fell sharply on Thursday, a day after minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting highlighted concerns over the state of the global economy and as oil prices hit their lowest since 2009.
U.S. policymakers continued to express broad concerns about lagging inflation and the weak world economy even as the job market improved further.
These two indicators are telling you to buy stocks (Market Watch)
If you’re holding off on buying stocks because “everyone knows” September and October can be terrible months that often bring trouble, you might be setting up yourself to get faked out by Mr. Market once again.
Because two of my favorite indicators are saying now is the time to purchase equities.
Gold Investors Eye Federal Reserve Minutes for Rate Rise Clues (Bloomberg)
Gold was little changed before the release of Federal Reserve minutes which may give further clues on the timing of an interest rate increase after a jump in U.S. housing starts boosted the case for a rise.
Kazakhstan's currency just lost a quarter of its value overnight (Business Insider)
If China is at the epicentre of a financial earthquake, then we felt a few aftershocks in the last 24 hours .
Firstly, Kazakhstan devalued its currency – the tenge – by abandoning a peg to the dollar and allowing the market to set the price.
Yuan drops after IMF move; Turkish lira falls further (Market Watch)
The Chinese yuan fell early Thursday in the wake of the International Monetary Fund’s signal that it will not upgrade the yuan to a reserve currency.
The dollar was up fractionally against the yuan USDCNY, -0.1141% in recent trade, even as China’s central bank on Thursday set the Asian currency’s trading midpoint higher, at 6.3915 per U.S. dollar, compared with 6.3963 a day earlier. The yuan can trade within a 2% band above or below that. It had been down nearly 0.1% earlier Thursday during Asian trading hours.
The American television business is now 'structurally impaired' (Business Insider)
In a research note to clients on Thursday, analyst Todd Juenger and his team at Bernstein said the market is now valuing the sector as if ad-supported TV in the US is a "structurally impaired" asset — and Juenger thinks this is right.
An asset is "impaired" if it's worth less than it's being being accounted for, and that lost value is expected to never come back.
Politics
Bush says Trump isn’t conservative enough to win Republican race (Market Watch)
Donald Trump, conservative? Not according to his rival Jeb Bush.
Bush, the former Florida governor seeking the Republican presidential nomination, said in New Hampshire Wednesday that Trump “doesn’t have a conservative record.” Trump, who is also seeking the GOP nomination, “was a Democrat longer than he was a Republican,” Bush said at a town-hall meeting. “He’s given more money to Democrats than he’s given to Republicans.” Trump held his own New Hampshire town hall at the same time. The billionaire is leading the Republican race in New Hampshire, according to a Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald poll, with 18% support to Bush’s 13%.
Google could 'rig the 2016 election,' researcher says (CNN)
By manipulating its search results, Google could decide the next election.
The world's most-used search engine is so powerful and national elections are so tight, that even a tiny tweak in Google's (GOOGL, Tech30) secret algorithm could swing the 2016 presidential election, according to Robert Epstein, senior research psychologist at the American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology.
Technology
Hyperloop project moves closer to reality with new engineering partners (Mashable)
You can keep calling it an ambitious pipe dream, but Elon Musk's brainchild known as the Hyperloop is moving ever closer to reality
The latest indication that the next-generation transport system should be taken seriously comes from Hyperloop Transportation Technologies' (HTT) announcement of the addition of Switzerland-based Oerlikon Leybold Vacuum, Hodgetts + Fung Architects and Los Angeles engineering firm AECOM to its efforts.
A Vase that Grows and Changes with Your Plant (PSFK)
Beyond their functional purpose, vases are a fixture of good design. Choose the right one, and your coffee table can instantly look 10 times more sophisticated. But some plants can change considerably once they start growing—and ultimately outgrow the vase you so carefully picked out. Thankfully, Studio Ayaskan came up with a solution to this indoor planting problem: a vase that conforms to the plant’s changing shape and size.
Health and Life Sciences
Pregnant? That Headache Might Not All Be In Your Head (Forbes)
Being pregnant often means constantly being vigilant for “something wrong” while trying not to overreact. So if a woman gets a severe headache – one of several possible symptoms of preeclampsia – how does she know if it’s worth calling the doctor?
Vaccine for Mers 'looks promising' (BBC)
A prototype vaccine against the lung infection Mers coronavirus has shown promising results, scientists say.
The study, published in the journal Science Translational Medicine, suggests the vaccine guards against the disease in monkeys and camels.
Researchers hope with more work it could be turned into a jab for humans.
Blind kids rely on ‘visual brain’ to learn language (Futurity)
By early childhood, the sight regions of a blind person’s brain respond to sound, especially spoken language, new research shows.
The results, which appear this week in the Journal of Neuroscience, suggest a young, developing brain has a striking capacity for functional adaptation.
Life on the Home Planet
"Armored Olympics" International Army Games Result In Tank Fun, and Deployment Experience (Popular Science)
The final round of the Tank Biathlon saw Russia in first, with China second (in the green camo painted ZTZ-96A tank), Serbia third and Kazakhstan fourth.
For the last two weeks, 2,000 soldiers from 17 countries have competed in the inaugural, two week International Army Games finished in Russia at the Alabino Army Base. The most prestigious event was of course the infamous "Tank Biathlon," which this year expanded into fourteen event categories, ranging from artillery fire, to reconnaissance and combat engineering (though many competitors grumbled about irregularities with equipment).
Livestock producers urged to watch for toxic plants (Phys)
Extreme heat and dry conditions can lead to a shortage of grass, and an opportunity to consume toxic plants and forages found in Texas rangelands. Livestock producers should be aware of potential pitfalls, according to a Texas A&M Veterinary Medical Diagnostics Laboratory expert.
Dr. Tam Garland, head of the lab's toxicology section in College Station, advises cattle producers to scout pastures and be on the lookout for four types of senna plants that can be toxic during different seasons and weather patterns: coffee senna, twinleaf senna, sicklepod senna and Lindheimer senna.
How to Move a Forest of Genes (Scientific American)
That trees need to match their habitats may sound obvious. But those habitats are changing as the planet warms—and trees can’t exactly get up and walk to a new home. If a species cannot keep pace with a changing climate, it is doomed. Because the trees themselves cannot relocate, scientists are exploring a novel solution: relocating the plants’ DNA.
Sally N. Aitken, director of the ’s Center for Forest Conservation Genetics at the University of British Columbia, believes that saving the forests of the Canadian province—and others around the world—may hinge on a practice called assisted gene flow.
