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Friday, December 5, 2025

Top Trades for Wed, 18 Nov 2015 11:11 – Earnings Trades

A couple of earnings plays for the OOP:

BBY has earnings tonight and have sold off with retail but electronics are what people are buying and AAPL and other phones probably gave them a boost - especially as they benefit from added traffic in more than just phone sales.  Let's sell 3 of the Jan $31 puts for $2.45 to collect $735 and I like these because the June $25 puts are $1.50 so figure a 2x roll to those if BBY misses and then we could buy a bull spread.

CRM also earns tonight and the Dec $80 calls are very expensive at $2.85 so let's sell 4 of those for $1,140 and cover with 4 March $82.50 ($4.30)/$87.50 ($2.75) bull call spreads at $1.55 ($620), so we have $5 of upside protection in case we're wrong and, if we're not, we have a $520 credit plus whatever value remains on our long spread as a bonus.  


SHLD is tempting to do a Dec $23 ($1.40)/$25 (0.90) bull call spread for 0.50 but I don't have a logical reason - just an assumption that Eddie will want to pop the price into 2016 so he'll cook the books to "surprise" the shorts and get the stock back over $30 before going back to stripping the company down for parts.  Not a good enough reason to officially include it but I do like the gamble.  

WSM is a very good deal down here with $275M in profits and what is now a $5.9Bn market cap for a 21.45 p/e.  It's not fantastic but they are buying back 10% of their own stock, which will drive p/e below 18 next year and yes, I hate buybacks but at $65/share - I can forgive them.  Let's buy 5 2017 $67.50 calls for $8.20 ($4,100) and sell 5 Jan $70 calls for $3.10 ($1,550) and sell 3 2017 $60 puts for $7 ($2,100) for net $450 on the $1,250 spread, which is conservative enough to ride out if we're wrong and they head lower.

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