Financial Markets and Economy
The Distressed-Debt Trades That Obliterated Bonus Checks in 2015 (Bloomberg)
Distressed debt investors could describe 2015 in a single word: pain.
U.S. manufacturing struggles; rising income boosts economic outlook (Business Insider)
A gauge of U.S. business investment plans fell in November and the prior month's increase was revised sharply lower as the drag on manufacturing from a strong dollar and spending cuts in the energy sector showed little sign of abating.
But the outlook for the economy remains encouraging, with other data on Wednesday showing personal income increased for an eighth straight month in November, which should help to support consumer spending next year.
Here are Wall Street’s five worst trades of 2015 (Quartz)
For a few people in the business world—Elizabeth Holmes, Martin Shkreli, and the Mast brothers, to name some—2015 was a very bad year. But there were plenty of bad years out there, especially among the poor asset managers trapped on the wrong sides of the worst trades in the worst-performing asset classes over the past 12 months. Here are five you hopefully avoided.
U.S. Index Futures Rise Amid Nike Earnings, Oil Extends Gains (Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks rose for a third day amid better-than-estimated earnings from Nike Inc., and as a rally in crude oil boosted energy shares.
The global financial markets in 2015 reduced to 1 chart and 5 bullets (Business Insider)
A lot of things happened in the markets this year.
Capital Goods Orders in U.S. Drop for First Time in Three Months (Bloomberg)
Orders for U.S. capital goods dropped in November for the first time in three months, showing businesses began tempering new investment after a third-quarter surge.
Japanese stocks have quietly outperformed almost everything else this year (Quartz)
Despite the country’s stop-and-start economy (four recessions in five years), Japan’s benchmark index has managed to best major indices from across the globe as its firms continue to reap the benefit of a weak currency and a hyper-accommodative central bank.
The index is up about 10% in local currency terms, beating the S&P 500 (flat), the STOXX 600 index in Europe (up 7%), and bested only by China’s SSE Composite (up 13%). In US dollar terms it looks even better, with the Nikkei out-gaining all of them. Also, keep in mind that the Nikkei was one of the last indices to get taken under by the global market meltdown in August, and it has since rebounded nicely.
Record highs predicted for bitcoin in 2016 as new supply halves (Business Insider)
2016 could prove to be the year that the price of bitcoin surges again. Not because of any dark-web drug-dealing or Russian ponzi scheme, but for an altogether less sensational reason – slower growth in the money supply.
Bitcoin is a web-based "cryptocurrency" used to move money around quickly and anonymously with no need for a central authority. But despite being championed by some as the digital money of the future, it is often dismissed as a currency that is too volatile to invest in.
Anglo, Tullow Lead Natural-Resources Rally on Growth Optimism (Bloomberg)
Anglo American Plc and Tullow Oil Plc led an end-of-year rally in mining and energy stocks as investors found reasons to cheer amid the worst commodities rout since the global financial crisis.
Asian shares inch higher, oil rout pauses (Business Insider)
Asia shares edged higher on Wednesday following a modest bounce on Wall Street, while the dollar drifted lower and the slump in oil prices paused if only for a day.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> ticked up 0.2 percent to the highest in almost two weeks. Australia's main index <.AXJO> added 0.75 percent.
Brazil's Golden Boy Is Gone. Bond Traders Don't Like It One Bit. (Bloomberg)
Investors in Brazil arent holding out much hope that its new finance minister can turn the economy around and shore up the nations finances. To be fair, itd be a tough job for just about anyone.
U.S. stock index futures pointed to a higher open on Wednesday amid a deluge of data, on the last full trading day of Christmas week.
Higher oil prices helped support pre-market gains in stock index futures, ahead of crude inventory data due later in the morning.
Bulls ready to break out of the holiday quiet (Market Watch)
It’s that time of year when volumes slump, leaving traders here and there to pass the time by rewriting Christmas classics so that the Fed is the star instead of Santa Claus.
“You knew that Liftoff’s on its way / Despite QE that ZIRP just couldn’t stay,” croons blogger Macro Man. (Sorry, Nat King Cole.)
OPEC Sees Demand for Its Crude Oil Falling for Rest of Decade (Bloomberg)
OPEC said demand for its crude will slide to 2020, though less steeply than previously expected, as rival supplies continue to grow.
Gold retreats as dollar gains ahead of Christmas (Market Watch)
Gold futures were modestly lower in early trade Wednesday, as the dollar rose ahead of Christmas.
February gold was $4, or 0.4%, lower at $1,070.20 an ounce, after ending lower Tuesday, ending two straight sessions of gains. Gold is on pace to end the week 0.7% higher and post a 0.5% gain for the month, despite wrestling with bearish sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to raise interest rates for the first time since 2010.
Forget Exporters And The Weak Euro, It's About Europe Small Caps (Bloomberg)
Buying shares of the biggest European exporters seemed like a winning strategy earlier this year as theeuro weakened.
OPEC's market share to shrink by 2020 as rivals keep pumping despite oil's collapse (Market Watch)
Global demand for OPEC's crude will be lower in 2020 than next year as supply from rivals proves more resilient than expected, potentially fuelling a debate on the merits of its strategy to let prices fall to hurt other producers. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which a year ago refused to cut supply to retain market share against higher-cost rivals, in its 2015 World Oil Outlook raised its global supply forecasts for tight oil, which includes shale, despite a collapse in prices. Demand for OPEC crude will reach 30.70 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020, OPEC said, lower than 30.90 million bpd next year.
Consumer spending, inflation both pick up (Market Watch)
Consumer spending rebounded in November after flatlining in the prior month, but inflation accelerated as well.
Bears in Europe's Hottest IPO Proven Right After Spain Election (Bloomberg)
Analyst warnings had failed to deter investors in Aena SA, making the worlds biggest airport operator one of Spains top performing stocks. Theyre now seeing things in a more bearish light, after Sundays inconclusive election sent the stock tumbling.
Man Who Called China's Boom and Bust Now Warns of Crisis Risks (Bloomberg)
One of the few forecasters to predict both the start and peak of China’s equity boom is now warning the nation will be buffeted by the same forces that caused financial crises around the world over the past four decades.
Politics
Thai Junta's Prayuth Says Reforms Must Come Before Democracy (Bloomberg)
Thailand’s junta leader Prayuth Chan-Ocha used his year-end speech to remind his countrymen that he seized power in order to reform the nation and that a return to democracy will have to wait until that’s accomplished and won’t come before 2017.
“Everybody wants to ask for a return to normal, to democracy with full freedom," Prayuth said in a nationwide television address Wednesday. "I want to ask whether this is possible. If we want to create change from the past, it’s not. We have tried for 83 years with many coups. Now I want the real reform to take place. This is for our children’s future.”
China Remains Vexing Campaign Test for Presidential Candidates (Yahoo! Finance)
It doesn’t rival Islamic State or abortion as an issue in the presidential race, but China might be the most complex challenge the winner will have to deal with.
The country, which has the world’s second-biggest economy and second-highest military spending, is a frenemy of the first order. It finances America’s federal budget deficit by buying Treasury bonds, and it sends more students to the U.S. than any other nation. It’s a natural ally on some issues (Islamic terrorism) but an implacable foe on others (freedom of navigation in the South China Sea).
Technology
Machines that learn like people (Phys)
Object-recognition systems are beginning to get pretty good—and in the case of Facebook's face-recognition algorithms, frighteningly good.
But object-recognition systems are typically trained on millions of visual examples, which is a far cry from how humans learn. Show a human two or three pictures of an object, and he or she can usually identify new instances of it.
Can the chip sector get even smaller in 2016? (Market Watch)
The megadeals that roiled the semiconductor industry in 2015 will lead to a seismic shift, and the consolidation of the industry that gives Silicon Valley its name may not be over.
Health and Life Sciences
Should You Get Bariatric (Weight Loss) Surgery? (Forbes)
Should more people be getting bariatric surgery, which involves reducing the size of the stomach to help lose weight? A study published in PLoS Medicine suggests that performing bariatric surgery on a much greater proportion of the estimated 1.4 million morbidly obese people in the United Kingdom could “prevent or resolve many tens of thousands of cases of hypertension and type 2 diabetes” as well as preventing many other obesity-related illnesses. Does this mean that bariatric surgery is a solution if you are obese? Not necessarily. Does this mean that people who could benefit from bariatric surgery are not getting the surgery? Yes.
End-of-Life Talk Often Comes Too Late for Blood Cancer Patients (Medicine Net)
Many doctors wait too long to have end-of-life discussions with blood cancer patients, a new study finds.
Life on the Home Planet
What Happens When a Human Faces 457mph of Wind (Gizmodo)
Any flab? Any extra skin? Anything that’s remotely loose on your body, it looks like it’s mere seconds from flying away and detaching from the rest of you when you try to withstand 457 mph of wind on your face. Here’s a video showing a test conducted in 1946 where a human subject was exposed to blasts of air that reached ridiculous speeds. The test was performed at NASA Langley Research Center’s 8 foot High Speed Tunnel.
Nine-year-old boy has testicular tissue frozen (BBC)
A young boy with an inoperable brain tumour has had testicular tissue frozen so that he has a chance of having his own children when he grows up.
Nathan Crawford from Cornwall needs chemo and radiotherapy for his cancer, but the aggressive treatment may also leave him infertile.
